Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from an

epidemic An epidemic (from Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of hosts in a given population within a short period of time. For example, in meningococcal infection ...

natural disaster A natural disaster is the very harmful impact on a society or community brought by natural phenomenon or Hazard#Natural hazard, hazard. Some examples of natural hazards include avalanches, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides ...

or act of war such as the explosion of a

nuclear weapon A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (fission or atomic bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions (thermonuclear weapon), producing a nuclear exp ...

chemical weapon A chemical weapon (CW) is a specialized munition that uses chemicals formulated to inflict death or harm on humans. According to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), this can be any chemical compound intended as ...

biological weapon Biological agents, also known as biological weapons or bioweapons, are pathogens used as weapons. In addition to these living or replicating pathogens, toxins and Toxin#Biotoxins, biotoxins are also included among the bio-agents. More than 1,2 ...

. ( Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred.) The

New York University New York University (NYU) is a private university, private research university in New York City, New York, United States. Chartered in 1831 by the New York State Legislature, NYU was founded in 1832 by Albert Gallatin as a Nondenominational ...

Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project applies

agent-based modelling An agent-based model (ABM) is a computational models, computational model for computer simulation, simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or groups) in order to ...

to simulate the effects of a large-scale

disaster A disaster is an event that causes serious harm to people, buildings, economies, or the environment, and the affected community cannot handle it alone. '' Natural disasters'' like avalanches, floods, earthquakes, and wildfires are caused by na ...

. Their initial project focused on modelling a 1998 Brazilian food-poisoning incident involving 8,000 injuries and 16 deaths. Blast casualty prediction is routinely performed in the planning of

military operations A military operation (op) is the coordinated military actions of a state, or a non-state actor, in response to a developing situation. These actions are designed as a military plan to resolve the situation in the state or actor's favor. Operatio ...

. For example, a

cruise missile A cruise missile is an unmanned self-propelled guided missile that sustains flight through aerodynamic lift for most of its flight path. Cruise missiles are designed to deliver a large payload over long distances with high precision. Modern cru ...

attack was considered by the United States in 1998 for

Tarnak Farms Tarnak Farms was an Afghan training camp near Kandahar, which served as a base to Osama bin Laden and his followers from 1998 to 2001. It was also the site of the Tarnak Farm incident. In 1998, Osama bin Laden moved his followers from Nazim Ji ...

in order to kill

Osama bin Laden Osama bin Laden (10 March 19572 May 2011) was a militant leader who was the founder and first general emir of al-Qaeda. Ideologically a pan-Islamist, Bin Laden participated in the Afghan ''mujahideen'' against the Soviet Union, and support ...

. However, not enough was known about the

collateral damage "Collateral damage" is a term for any incidental and undesired death, injury or other damage inflicted, especially on civilians, as the result of an activity. Originally coined to describe military operations, it is now also used in non-milit ...

effects of cruise missiles on mud huts. At the time there were estimated to be 100 women and children in the area, and in order to spare these civilians, the attack was not approved. Ghost Wars

References

{{reflist Emergency management Military science War casualties Death predictions

See also

References