Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by

Wolters Kluwer Wolters Kluwer N.V. () is a Dutch information services company. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, Netherlands (Global) and Philadelphia, United States (corporate). Wolters Kluwer in its current form was founded in 1987 with a m ...

collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the

economy of the United States The United States is a highly developed mixed-market economy and has the world's largest nominal GDP and net wealth. It has the second-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) behind China. It has the world's seventh-highest per capita ...

. The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity. It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates.

History

Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts started in 1976.

Variables reported

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States: * Real GDP * GDP price index * Nominal GDP * Consumer price index * Industrial production * Real disposable personal income * Real personal consumption expenditures * Real non-residential fixed investment * Pre-tax corporate profits * 3-month Treasury bill rate * 10-year Treasury note yield * Unemployment rate * Total housing starts * Auto and light truck sales * Real Net exports

Reception

Academic reception

Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated. A paper by Laster, Bennett, and Geoum (1999) made a theoretical argument for how rational forecasters with identical information and incentives may still come up with divergent forecasts to maximize their probability of winning, and used the Blue chip Economic Indicators data to provide evidence supportive of their model. The paper noted: "The publisher of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a monthly newsletter compiling dozens of professional economic forecasts, holds an annual dinner at which the most accurate forecaster for the previous year is honored. The winning forecaster is also identified in later issues of the newsletter." The

Congressional Budget Office The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government that provides budget and economic information to Congress. Inspired by California's Legislative Analyst's Office that manag ...

has also cited Blue Chip Economic Indicators data in some of its publications.

Reception in the financial press and blogs

The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs, including ''

Forbes ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine owned by Integrated Whale Media Investments and the Forbes family. Published eight times a year, it features articles on finance, industry, investing, and marketing topics. ''Forbes'' also r ...

'' and '' Barron's''. In March 2009, ''

PolitiFact PolitiFact.com is an American nonprofit project operated by the Poynter Institute in St. Petersburg, Florida, with offices there and in Washington, D.C. It began in 2007 as a project of the ''Tampa Bay Times'' (then the ''St. Petersburg Time ...

'' reported that a controversial statement made by

Christina Romer Christina Duckworth Romer (née Duckworth; born December 25, 1958) is the Class of 1957 Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley and a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administr ...

based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

References

External links

* {{official, https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/solutions/vitallaw-law-firms/blue-chip Economy of the United States Economic forecasting