A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to
gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the
house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a
perpetual motion
Perpetual motion is the motion of bodies that continues forever in an unperturbed system. A perpetual motion machine is a hypothetical machine that can do work infinitely without an external energy source. This kind of machine is impossible, a ...
machine.
Betting systems are often predicated on
statistical analysis
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability.Upton, G., Cook, I. (2008) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistics'', OUP. . Inferential statistical analysis infers propertie ...
.
Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random,
independent trials, although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g.
card counting and
handicapping
Handicapping, in sport and games, is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. The word also applies to the various methods by which th ...
), can alter long-term results.
This is formally stated by game theorist
Richard Arnold Epstein in ''The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic'' as:
Examples
Common betting systems include:
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Card games –
Card counting
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Roulette
Roulette is a casino game named after the French word meaning ''little wheel'' which was likely developed from the Italian game Biribi''.'' In the game, a player may choose to place a bet on a single number, various groupings of numbers, the ...
–
Martingale
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Sports –
Handicapping
Handicapping, in sport and games, is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. The word also applies to the various methods by which th ...
*
Martingale
*
Kelly criterion
In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), is a formula that determines the optimal theoretical size for a bet. It is valid when the expected returns are known. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expec ...
*
Split martingale
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Anti-martingale
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d'Alembert system
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Oscar's grind
Horse racing
Some
Horse racing
Horse racing is an equestrian performance sport, typically involving two or more horses ridden by jockeys (or sometimes driven without riders) over a set distance for competition. It is one of the most ancient of all sports, as its basic p ...
betting systems can be based on pure statistical analysis of the odds, while others also analysis of physical factors (e.g. the horses' form, jockey form and lane draw). Common forms of betting systems for horse racing are:
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hedging- betting on multiple outcomes in a race
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arbitrage
In economics and finance, arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the ...
- lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price
See also
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Gambler's fallacy
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House edge
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Mathematics of bookmaking
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Parimutuel betting
References
{{Gambling
Strategy