Autism (incidence)
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The epidemiology of autism is the study of the incidence and distribution of
autism spectrum disorders Autism, also known as autism spectrum disorder (ASD), is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by differences or difficulties in social communication and interaction, a preference for predictability and routine, sensory processing di ...
(ASD). A 2022 systematic review of global prevalence of autism spectrum disorders found a median prevalence of 1% in children in studies published from 2012 to 2021, with a trend of increasing prevalence over time. However, the study's 1% figure may reflect an underestimate of prevalence in
low- and middle-income countries A developing country is a sovereign state with a less-developed industrial base and a lower Human Development Index (HDI) relative to developed countries. However, this definition is not universally agreed upon. There is also no clear agreemen ...
. ASD averages a 4.3:1 male-to-female ratio in diagnosis, not accounting for ASD in gender diverse populations, which overlap disproportionately with ASD populations. The number of children known to have autism has increased dramatically since the 1980s, at least partly due to changes in diagnostic practice; it is unclear whether prevalence has actually increased; and as-yet-unidentified environmental risk factors cannot be ruled out. In 2020, the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the National public health institutes, national public health agency of the United States. It is a Federal agencies of the United States, United States federal agency under the United S ...
's Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network reported that approximately 1 in 54 children in the United States (1 in 34 boys, and 1 in 144 girls) are diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder, based on data collected in 2016. This estimate is a 10% increase from the 1 in 59 rate in 2014, 105% increase from the 1 in 110 rate in 2006 and 176% increase from the 1 in 150 rate in 2000. Diagnostic criteria of ASD has changed significantly since the 1980s; for example, U.S. special-education autism classification was introduced in 1994. ASD is a complex
neurodevelopmental disorder Neurodevelopmental disorders are a group of mental conditions negatively affecting the development of the nervous system, which includes the brain and spinal cord. According to the American Psychiatric Association Diagnostic and Statistical Manu ...
, and although what
causes Causes, or causality, is the relationship between one event and another. It may also refer to: * Causes (band), an indie band based in the Netherlands * Causes (company) Causes is a for-profit civic-technology app and website that enables users ...
it is still not entirely known, efforts have been made to outline causative mechanisms and how they give rise to the disorder. The risk of developing autism is increased in the presence of various
prenatal Prenatal development () involves the embryonic development, development of the embryo and of the fetus during a viviparity, viviparous animal's gestation. Prenatal development starts with fertilization, in the germinal stage of embryonic develop ...
factors, including advanced
paternal age The paternal age effect is the statistical relationship between the father's age at conception and biological effects on the child. Such effects can relate to birthweight, congenital disorders, life expectancy, and psychological outcomes. A 201 ...
and
diabetes Diabetes mellitus, commonly known as diabetes, is a group of common endocrine diseases characterized by sustained high blood sugar levels. Diabetes is due to either the pancreas not producing enough of the hormone insulin, or the cells of th ...
in the mother during
pregnancy Pregnancy is the time during which one or more offspring gestation, gestates inside a woman's uterus. A multiple birth, multiple pregnancy involves more than one offspring, such as with twins. Conception (biology), Conception usually occurs ...
. In rare cases, autism is strongly associated with agents that cause birth defects. It has been shown to be related to
genetic disorder A genetic disorder is a health problem caused by one or more abnormalities in the genome. It can be caused by a mutation in a single gene (monogenic) or multiple genes (polygenic) or by a chromosome abnormality. Although polygenic disorders ...
s and with
epilepsy Epilepsy is a group of Non-communicable disease, non-communicable Neurological disorder, neurological disorders characterized by a tendency for recurrent, unprovoked Seizure, seizures. A seizure is a sudden burst of abnormal electrical activit ...
. ASD is believed to be largely inherited, although the genetics of ASD are complex and it is unclear which genes are responsible. ASD is also associated with several intellectual or emotional gifts, which has led to a variety of hypotheses from within
evolutionary psychiatry Evolutionary psychiatry, also known as Darwinian Psychiatry, is a theoretical approach to psychiatry that aims to explain psychiatric disorders in evolutionary terms. As a branch of the field of evolutionary medicine, it is distinct from the medic ...
that autistic traits have played a beneficial role over human evolutionary history. Other proposed
causes of autism Many causes of autism, including environmental disease, environmental and genetic disorder, genetic factors, have been recognized or proposed, but understanding of the etiology of autism is incomplete. Attempts have been made to incorporate the k ...
have been
controversial Controversy (, ) is a state of prolonged public dispute or debate, usually concerning a matter of conflicting opinion or point of view. The word was coined from the Latin '' controversia'', as a composite of ''controversus'' – "turned in an opp ...
. The vaccine hypothesis has been extensively investigated and shown to be false, lacking any
scientific evidence Scientific evidence is evidence that serves to either support or counter a scientific theory or hypothesis, although scientists also use evidence in other ways, such as when applying theories to practical problems. "Discussions about empirical ev ...
.
Andrew Wakefield Andrew Jeremy Wakefield (born 3 September 1956) is a British fraudster, anti-vaccine activist, and disgraced former physician. He was struck off the medical register for "serious professional misconduct" due to his involvement in the fraudu ...
published a small study in 1998 in the United Kingdom suggesting a causal link between autism and the trivalent
MMR vaccine The MMR vaccine is a vaccine against measles, mumps, and rubella (German measles), abbreviated as ''MMR''. The first dose is generally given to children around 9 months to 15 months of age, with a second dose at 15 months to 6 years of age, w ...
. After data included in the report was shown to be deliberately falsified, the paper was retracted, and Wakefield was struck off the medical register in the United Kingdom. It is problematic to compare autism rates over the last three decades, as the diagnostic criteria for autism have changed with each revision of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual The ''Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders'' (''DSM''; latest edition: ''DSM-5-TR'', published in March 2022) is a publication by the American Psychiatric Association (APA) for the classification of mental disorders using a com ...
(DSM), which outlines which symptoms meet the criteria for an ASD diagnosis. In 1983, the DSM did not recognize
PDD-NOS Pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS) is a historic psychiatric diagnosis first defined in 1980 that has since been incorporated into autism spectrum disorder in the DSM-5 (2013). According to the earlier DSM-IV, PDD ...
or
Asperger syndrome Asperger syndrome (AS), also known as Asperger's syndrome or Asperger's, is a diagnostic label that has historically been used to describe a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction and no ...
, and the criteria for autistic disorder (AD) were more restrictive. The previous edition of the DSM, DSM-IV, included autistic disorder,
childhood disintegrative disorder Childhood disintegrative disorder (CDD), also known as Heller syndrome and disintegrative psychosis, is a rare condition characterized by late onset of developmental delays—or severe and sudden reversals—in language (receptive and expressiv ...
, PDD-NOS, and Asperger's syndrome. Due to inconsistencies in diagnosis and how much is still being learnt about autism, the most recent DSM (
DSM-5 The ''Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition'' (DSM-5), is the 2013 update to the '' Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders'', the taxonomic and diagnostic tool published by the American Psychiat ...
) only has one diagnosis, autism spectrum disorder, which encompasses each of the previous four disorders. According to the new diagnostic criteria for ASD, one must have both struggles in social communication and interaction and restricted repetitive behaviors, interests and activities. ASD diagnoses continue to be over four times more common among boys (1 in 34) than among girls (1 in 154), and they are reported in all racial, ethnic and
socioeconomic Economics () is a behavioral science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interac ...
groups. Studies have been conducted in several continents (Asia, Europe and North America) that report a prevalence rate of approximately 1 to 2 percent. A 2011 study reported a 2.6 percent
prevalence In epidemiology, prevalence is the proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a medical condition (typically a disease or a risk factor such as smoking or seatbelt use) at a specific time. It is derived by comparing the number o ...
of autism in
South Korea South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea (ROK), is a country in East Asia. It constitutes the southern half of the Korea, Korean Peninsula and borders North Korea along the Korean Demilitarized Zone, with the Yellow Sea to the west and t ...
.


Frequency

Although incidence rates measure autism prevalence directly, most epidemiological studies report other frequency measures, typically point or period prevalence, or sometimes cumulative incidence. Attention is focused mostly on whether prevalence is increasing with time.


Incidence and prevalence

Epidemiology Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and Risk factor (epidemiology), determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population, and application of this knowledge to prevent dise ...
defines several measures of the frequency of occurrence of a disease or condition: * The
incidence rate In epidemiology Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and Risk factor (epidemiology), determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population, and application of this knowl ...
of a condition is the rate at which new cases occurred per person-year, for example, "2 new cases per 1,000 person-years". * The
cumulative incidence In epidemiology, incidence reflects the number of new cases of a given medical condition in a population within a specified period of time. Incidence proportion Incidence proportion (IP), also known as cumulative incidence, is defined as the p ...
is the proportion of a population that became new cases within a specified time period, for example, "1.5 per 1,000 people became new cases during 2006". * The
point prevalence In epidemiology, prevalence is the proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a medical condition (typically a disease or a risk factor such as smoking or seatbelt use) at a specific time. It is derived by comparing the number o ...
of a condition is the proportion of a population that had the condition at a single point in time, for example, "10 cases per 1,000 people at the start of 2006". * The period prevalence is the proportion that had the condition at any time within a stated period, for example, "15 per 1,000 people had cases during 2006". When studying how conditions are caused, incidence rates are the most appropriate measure of condition frequency as they assess probability directly. However, incidence can be difficult to measure with rarer conditions such as autism. In autism epidemiology, point or period prevalence is more useful than incidence, as the condition starts long before it is diagnosed, bearing in mind genetic elements it is inherent from conception, and the gap between initiation and diagnosis is influenced by many factors unrelated to chance. Research focuses mostly on whether point or period prevalence is increasing with time; cumulative incidence is sometimes used in studies of birth cohorts.


Estimation methods

The three basic approaches used to estimate prevalence differ in cost and in quality of results. The simplest and cheapest method is to count known autism cases from sources such as schools and clinics, and divide by the population. This approach is likely to underestimate prevalence because it does not count children who have not been diagnosed yet, and it is likely to generate skewed statistics because some children have better access to treatment. The second method improves on the first by having investigators examine student or patient records looking for probable cases, to catch cases that have not been identified yet. The third method, which is arguably the best, screens a large sample of an entire community to identify possible cases, and then evaluates each possible case in more detail with standard diagnostic procedures. This last method typically produces the most reliable, and the highest, prevalence estimates.


Frequency estimates

Estimates of the
prevalence In epidemiology, prevalence is the proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a medical condition (typically a disease or a risk factor such as smoking or seatbelt use) at a specific time. It is derived by comparing the number o ...
of autism vary widely depending on diagnostic criteria, age of children screened, and geographical location. Most recent
review A review is an evaluation of a publication, product, service, or company or a critical take on current affairs in literature, politics or culture. In addition to a critical evaluation, the review's author may assign the work a content rating, ...
s tend to estimate a prevalence of 1–2 per 1,000 for autism and close to 27.6 per 1,000 for ASD;
PDD-NOS Pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS) is a historic psychiatric diagnosis first defined in 1980 that has since been incorporated into autism spectrum disorder in the DSM-5 (2013). According to the earlier DSM-IV, PDD ...
is the vast majority of ASD,
Asperger syndrome Asperger syndrome (AS), also known as Asperger's syndrome or Asperger's, is a diagnostic label that has historically been used to describe a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction and no ...
is about 0.3 per 1,000 and the atypical forms
childhood disintegrative disorder Childhood disintegrative disorder (CDD), also known as Heller syndrome and disintegrative psychosis, is a rare condition characterized by late onset of developmental delays—or severe and sudden reversals—in language (receptive and expressiv ...
and
Rett syndrome Rett syndrome (RTT) is a genetic disorder that typically becomes apparent after 6–18 months of age and almost exclusively in girls. Symptoms include impairments in language and coordination, and repetitive movements. Those affected often h ...
are much rarer. A 2006 study of nearly 57,000 British nine- and ten-year-olds reported a prevalence of 3.89 per 1,000 for autism and 11.61 per 1,000 for ASD; these higher figures could be associated with broadening diagnostic criteria. Studies based on more detailed information, such as direct observation rather than examination of medical records, identify higher prevalence; this suggests that published figures may underestimate ASD's true prevalence. A 2009 study of the children in
Cambridgeshire Cambridgeshire (abbreviated Cambs.) is a Ceremonial counties of England, ceremonial county in the East of England and East Anglia. It is bordered by Lincolnshire to the north, Norfolk to the north-east, Suffolk to the east, Essex and Hertfor ...
, England used different methods to measure prevalence, and estimated that 40% of ASD cases go undiagnosed, with the two least-biased estimates of true prevalence being 11.3 and 15.7 per 1,000. A 2009 U.S. study based on 2006 data estimated the prevalence of ASD in eight-year-old children to be 9.0 per 1,000 (approximate range 8.6–9.3). A 2009 report based on the 2007 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey by the
National Health Service The National Health Service (NHS) is the term for the publicly funded health care, publicly funded healthcare systems of the United Kingdom: the National Health Service (England), NHS Scotland, NHS Wales, and Health and Social Care (Northern ...
determined that the prevalence of ASD in adults was approximately 1% of the population, with a higher prevalence in males and no significant variation between age groups; these results suggest that prevalence of ASD among adults is similar to that in children and rates of autism are not increasing.


Increased diagnoses over time

Attention has been focused on whether the prevalence of autism is increasing with time. Earlier prevalence estimates were lower, centering at about 0.5 per 1,000 for autism during the 1960s and 1970s and about 1 per 1,000 in the 1980s, as opposed to today's 23 per 1000. The number of reported cases of autism increased dramatically in the 1990s and 2000s, prompting ongoing investigations into several potential reasons: * More children may have autism; that is, the true frequency of autism may have increased. * The apparent increase may be illusory, caused by some form of measurement bias such as improved diagnosis or widen diagnostic criteria


Increased diagnoses as measurement bias

Many explanations suggest that the increased diagnosis of autism might be caused by changes in the definition of the condition, improved methods of diagnosis, decreased stigma, and widespread mainstream public awareness of the condition. * There may be more complete pickup of autism (case finding), as a result of increased awareness and funding. For example, attempts to sue vaccine companies may have increased case-reporting. * The diagnosis may be applied more broadly than before, as a result of the changing definition of the disorder, particularly changes in
DSM-III-R The ''Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders'' (''DSM''; latest edition: ''DSM-5-TR'', published in March 2022) is a publication by the American Psychiatric Association (APA) for the classification of mental disorders using a co ...
and DSM-IV. * An editorial error in the description of the PDD-NOS category of Autism Spectrum Disorders in the DSM-IV, in 1994, inappropriately broadened the PDD-NOS construct. The error was corrected in the DSM-IV-TR, in 2000, reversing the PDD-NOS construct back to the more restrictive diagnostic criteria requirements from the DSM-III-R. * Successively earlier diagnosis in each succeeding cohort of children, including recognition in nursery (preschool), may have affected apparent prevalence but not incidence. * A review of the "rising autism" figures compared to other disabilities in schools shows a corresponding drop in findings of intellectual disability. * The reported increase is largely attributable to changes in diagnostic practices, referral patterns, availability of services, age at diagnosis, and public awareness.Prevalence and changes in diagnostic practice: * * A widely cited 2002 pilot study concluded that the observed increase in autism in California cannot be explained by changes in diagnostic criteria, but a 2006 analysis found that special education data poorly measured prevalence because so many cases were undiagnosed, and that the 1994–2003 U.S. increase was associated with declines in other diagnostic categories, indicating that diagnostic substitution had occurred. A small 2008 study found that a significant number (40%) of people diagnosed with
pragmatic language impairment Social (pragmatic) communication disorder (SPCD), also known as pragmatic language impairment (PLI), is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by difficulties in the social use of verbal and nonverbal communication. Individuals who are define ...
as children in previous decades would now be given a diagnosis as autism. A study of all Danish children born in 1994–99 found that children born later were more likely to be diagnosed at a younger age, supporting the argument that apparent increases in autism prevalence were at least partly due to decreases in the age of diagnosis. A 2007 study that modeled autism incidence found that broadened diagnostic criteria, diagnosis at a younger age, and improved efficiency of case ascertainment, can produce an increase in autism diagnoses ranging up to 29-fold depending on the frequency measure, suggesting that methodological factors may explain what appears to be an increase in autism over time. This observation is often mistakenly described as an "autism epidemic".


Increased diagnosis as potentially increased rates of autism

Other sources suggest that, beyond mere measurement bias, autism is in fact becoming more common. Several environmental factors have been proposed to support the hypothesis that the actual frequency of autism has increased. These include certain foods, infectious disease, and
herbicides Herbicides (, ), also commonly known as weed killers, are substances used to control undesired plants, also known as weeds.EPA. February 201Pesticides Industry. Sales and Usage 2006 and 2007: Market Estimates. Summary in press releasMain page f ...
. Although it is unknown whether autism's frequency has increased, sources suggest such an increase, if real, would suggest environmental factors might be responsible. A 2009 study of California data found that the reported incidence of autism rose 7- to 8-fold from the early 1990s to 2007, and that changes in diagnostic criteria, inclusion of milder cases, and earlier age of diagnosis probably explain only a 4.25-fold increase; the study did not quantify the effects of wider awareness of autism, increased funding, and expanding support options resulting in parents' greater motivation to seek services. Another 2009 California study found that the reported increases are unlikely to be explained by changes in how qualifying condition codes for autism were recorded. In 2014, a study reported a correlation between the herbicide glyphosate in the US food supply and autism diagnosis rates. The graph comparing the two trends was widely shared, but skeptics cast doubt on the claim.https://skepticalinquirer.org/exclusive/a-skeptical-guide-to-glyphosate-toolkit-for-ten-common-claims/


Misinformation about heavy metals in vaccines

Beginning in the 1970s, the United States mounted a major effort to reduce environmental heavy metal exposure. Amid a campaign of
lead abatement Lead abatement includes lead-based paint wiktionary:abatement, abatement activities, such as inspections, risk assessments, as well as removal. Lead abatement must be performed by educated, certified professionals with proper safety protocols to ...
, lead paint was banned, leaded fuel was phased out, and drinking water became subject to testing for safe levels of heavy metals. Simultaneously, the nation began increased regulation of mercury, and by 2003, states had begun to ban thermometers containing the element. Despite the decrease in environmental heavy metals, autism diagnosis rates continued to rise. In the 1990s, some fringe sources speculated that autism might stem from the mercury-containing compound
thiomersal Thiomersal (International Nonproprietary Name, INN), or thimerosal (United States Adopted Name, USAN, Japanese Accepted Name, JAN), also sold under the name merthiolate, is an organomercury compound. It is a well-established antiseptic and antif ...
which was used, at that time, in some vaccines. By 2001, the compound had been removed from vaccines, but autism diagnosis rates continued to climb unabated. There are claims that there is an "autism epidemic" based on the increased number of diagnosed cases. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has claimed that there is an "autism epidemic", which he calls a "holocaust", and he has repeated the false claim that autism is caused by vaccines. He has been heavily criticized for such statements.


Geographical frequency


Africa

The prevalence of autism in Africa is unknown.


The Americas

The prevalence of autism in the Americas overall is unknown.


= Canada

= The Canadian government reported in 2019 that 1 in 50 children were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. However, preliminary results of an epidemiological study conducted at Montreal Children's Hospital in the 200–2004 school year found a prevalence rate of 0.68% (or 1 per 147). A 2001 review of the medical research conducted by the Public Health Agency of Canada concluded that there was no link between MMR vaccine and either inflammatory bowel disease or autism. The review noted, "An increase in cases of autism was noted by year of birth from 1979 to 1992; however, no incremental increase in cases was observed after the introduction of MMR vaccination." After the introduction of MMR, "A time trend analysis found no correlation between prevalence of MMR vaccination and the incidence of autism in each birth cohort from 1988 to 1993."


= United States

= According to a report by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the National public health institutes, national public health agency of the United States. It is a Federal agencies of the United States, United States federal agency under the United S ...
in 2020, 1 in 36 children have ASD (27.6 in every 1,000). The number of diagnosed cases of autism grew dramatically in the U.S. in the 1990s and have continued in the 2000s. For the 2006 surveillance year, identified ASD cases were an estimated 9.0 per 1000 children aged 8 years (95% confidence interval I= 8.6–9.3). These numbers measure what is sometimes called "administrative prevalence", that is, the number of known cases per unit of population, as opposed to the true number of cases. This prevalence estimate rose 57% (95% CI 27%–95%) from 2002 to 2006. The National Health Interview Survey for 2014–2016 studied 30,502 US children and adolescents and found the weighted prevalence of ASD was 2.47% (24.7 per 1,000); 3.63% in boys and 1.25% in girls. Across the 3-year reporting period, the prevalence was 2.24% in 2014, 2.41% in 2015, and 2.76% in 2016. The number of new cases of autism spectrum disorder in Caucasian boys is roughly 50% higher than found in Hispanic children, and approximately 30% more likely to occur than in Non-Hispanic white children in the United States. A further study in 2006 concluded that the apparent rise in administrative prevalence was the result of diagnostic substitution, mostly for findings of intellectual disability and learning disabilities. "Many of the children now being counted in the autism category would probably have been counted in the mental retardation or learning disabilities categories if they were being labeled 10 years ago instead of today", said researcher
Paul Shattuck Paul T. Shattuck is an autism researcher at the A.J. Drexel Autism Institute at Drexel University, where he leads the Research Program Area on Life Course Outcomes. He was previously a faculty member at the George Warren Brown School of Social ...
of the Waisman Center at the
University of Wisconsin–Madison The University of Wisconsin–Madison (University of Wisconsin, Wisconsin, UW, UW–Madison, or simply Madison) is a public land-grant research university in Madison, Wisconsin, United States. It was founded in 1848 when Wisconsin achieved st ...
, in a statement. A population-based study in Olmsted County,
Minnesota Minnesota ( ) is a U.S. state, state in the Upper Midwestern region of the United States. It is bordered by the Canadian provinces of Manitoba and Ontario to the north and east and by the U.S. states of Wisconsin to the east, Iowa to the so ...
county found that the cumulative incidence of autism grew eightfold from the 1980–83 period to the 1995–97 period. The increase occurred after the introduction of broader, more-precise diagnostic criteria, increased service availability, and increased awareness of autism. During the same period, the reported number of autism cases grew 22-fold in the same location, suggesting that counts reported by clinics or schools provide misleading estimates of the true incidence of autism.


= Venezuela

= A 2008 study in
Venezuela Venezuela, officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many Federal Dependencies of Venezuela, islands and islets in the Caribbean Sea. It com ...
reported a prevalence of 1.1 per 1,000 for autism and 1.7 per 1,000 for ASD.


Asia

A journal reports that the median prevalence of ASD among 2–6-year-old children who are reported in China from 2000 upwards was 10.3/10,000.


= Hong Kong

= A 2008 Hong Kong study reported an ASD incidence rate similar to those reported in Australia and North America, and lower than Europeans. It also reported a prevalence of 1.68 per 1,000 for children under 15 years.


= Japan

= A 2005 study of a part of
Yokohama is the List of cities in Japan, second-largest city in Japan by population as well as by area, and the country's most populous Municipalities of Japan, municipality. It is the capital and most populous city in Kanagawa Prefecture, with a popu ...
with a stable population of about 300,000 reported a cumulative incidence to age 7 years of 48 cases of ASD per 10,000 children in 1989, and 86 in 1990. After the vaccination rate of the triple
MMR vaccine The MMR vaccine is a vaccine against measles, mumps, and rubella (German measles), abbreviated as ''MMR''. The first dose is generally given to children around 9 months to 15 months of age, with a second dose at 15 months to 6 years of age, w ...
dropped to near zero and was replaced with MR and M vaccine, the incidence rate grew to 97 and 161 cases per 10,000 children born in 1993 and 1994, respectively, indicating that the combined MMR vaccine did not cause autism. A 2004 Japanese autism association reported that about 360.000 people have typical Kanner-type autism.


Australia

Across all ages, 1 in 70 Australians identify as being autistic (or a person with autism). 1 in 23 children (or 4.36%) aged 7 to 14 years have an autism diagnosis.


Middle East


= Israel

= A 2009 study reported that the annual incidence rate of Israeli children with a diagnosis of ASD receiving disability benefits rose from zero in 1982–1984 to 190 per million in 2004. It was not known whether these figures reflected true increases or other factors such as changes in diagnostic measures.


= Saudi Arabia

= Studies of autism frequency have been particularly rare in the
Middle East The Middle East (term originally coined in English language) is a geopolitical region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq. The term came into widespread usage by the United Kingdom and western Eur ...
. One rough estimate is that the prevalence of autism in
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia, officially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), is a country in West Asia. Located in the centre of the Middle East, it covers the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula and has a land area of about , making it the List of Asian countries ...
is 18 per 10,000, slightly higher than the 13 per 10,000 reported in developed countries.(compared to 168 per 10,000 in the USA)


Europe


= Denmark

= In 1992,
thiomersal Thiomersal (International Nonproprietary Name, INN), or thimerosal (United States Adopted Name, USAN, Japanese Accepted Name, JAN), also sold under the name merthiolate, is an organomercury compound. It is a well-established antiseptic and antif ...
-containing vaccines were removed in Denmark. A study at
Aarhus University Aarhus University (, abbreviated AU) is a public research university. Its main campus is located in Aarhus, Denmark. It is the second largest and second oldest university in Denmark. The university is part of the Coimbra Group, the Guild, and Ut ...
indicated that during the chemical's usage period (up through 1990), there was no trend toward an increase in the incidence of autism. Between 1991 and 2000 the incidence increased, including among children born after the discontinuation of thimerosal.


= France

= France made autism the national focus for the year 2012 and the Health Ministry estimated the rate of autism in 2012 to have been 0.67%, i.e. 1 in 150. Eric Fombonne made some studies in the years 1992 and 1997. He found a prevalence of 16 per 10,000 for the global
pervasive developmental disorder The diagnostic category pervasive developmental disorders (PDD), as opposed to specific developmental disorders (SDD), was a group of disorders characterized by delays in the development of multiple basic functions including socialization and ...
(PDD). The
INSERM The (Inserm, ) is the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research. History and organisation Inserm was created in 1964 as a successor to the French National Institute of Health. Inserm is the only public research institution ...
found a prevalence of 27 per 10,000 for the ASD and a prevalence of 9 per 10,000 for the
early infantile autism Classic autism—also known as childhood autism, autistic disorder, or Kanner's syndrome—is a formerly diagnosed neurodevelopmental disorder first described by Leo Kanner in 1943. It is characterized by atypical and impaired development in s ...
in 2003. Those figures are considered as underrated as the
WHO The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations which coordinates responses to international public health issues and emergencies. It is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, and has 6 regional offices and 15 ...
gives figures between 30 and 60 per 10,000. The French Minister of Health gives a prevalence of 4.9 per 10,000 on its website but it counts only
early infantile autism Classic autism—also known as childhood autism, autistic disorder, or Kanner's syndrome—is a formerly diagnosed neurodevelopmental disorder first described by Leo Kanner in 1943. It is characterized by atypical and impaired development in s ...
.


= Germany

= A 2008 study in
Germany Germany, officially the Federal Republic of Germany, is a country in Central Europe. It lies between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea to the north and the Alps to the south. Its sixteen States of Germany, constituent states have a total popu ...
found that inpatient admission rates for children with ASD increased 30% from 2000 to 2005, with the largest rise between 2000 and 2001 and a decline between 2001 and 2003. Inpatient rates for all mental disorders also rose for ages up to 15 years, so that the ratio of ASD to all admissions rose from 1.3% to 1.4%.


= Norway

= A 2009 study in
Norway Norway, officially the Kingdom of Norway, is a Nordic countries, Nordic country located on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe. The remote Arctic island of Jan Mayen and the archipelago of Svalbard also form part of the Kingdom of ...
reported prevalence rates for ASD ranging from 0.21% to 0.87%, depending on assessment method and assumptions about non-response, suggesting that methodological factors explain large variances in prevalence rates in different studies.


= United Kingdom

= The incidence and changes in incidence with time are unclear in the
United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Northwestern Europe, off the coast of European mainland, the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotlan ...
. The reported autism incidence in the UK rose starting before the first introduction of the
MMR vaccine The MMR vaccine is a vaccine against measles, mumps, and rubella (German measles), abbreviated as ''MMR''. The first dose is generally given to children around 9 months to 15 months of age, with a second dose at 15 months to 6 years of age, w ...
in 1989. However, a perceived link between the two arising from the results of a fraudulent scientific study has caused considerable controversy, despite being subsequently disproved. A 2004 study found that the reported incidence of pervasive developmental disorders in a general practice research database in England and Wales grew steadily during 1988–2001 from 0.11 to 2.98 per 10,000 person-years, and concluded that much of this increase may be due to changes in diagnostic practice.


Genetics

As late as the mid-1970s there was little evidence of a genetic role in autism; evidence from
genetic epidemiology Genetic epidemiology is the study of the role of genetic factors in determining health and disease in families and in populations, and the interplay of such genetic factors with environmental factors. Genetic epidemiology seeks to derive a statist ...
studies now suggests that it is one of the most heritable of all psychiatric conditions. The first studies of twins estimated
heritability Heritability is a statistic used in the fields of Animal husbandry, breeding and genetics that estimates the degree of ''variation'' in a phenotypic trait in a population that is due to genetic variation between individuals in that population. T ...
to be more than 90%; in other words, that genetics explains more than 90% of autism cases. When only one identical twin is autistic, the other often has learning or social disabilities. For adult siblings, the risk of having one or more features of the broader autism phenotype might be as high as 30%, much higher than the risk in controls. About 10–15% of autism cases have an identifiable
Mendelian Mendelian inheritance (also known as Mendelism) is a type of biological inheritance following the principles originally proposed by Gregor Mendel in 1865 and 1866, re-discovered in 1900 by Hugo de Vries and Carl Correns, and later popularized ...
(single-gene) condition,
chromosome abnormality A chromosomal abnormality, chromosomal anomaly, chromosomal aberration, chromosomal mutation, or chromosomal disorder is a missing, extra, or irregular portion of chromosomal DNA. These can occur in the form of numerical abnormalities, where the ...
, or other genetic syndrome, and ASD is associated with several
genetic disorder A genetic disorder is a health problem caused by one or more abnormalities in the genome. It can be caused by a mutation in a single gene (monogenic) or multiple genes (polygenic) or by a chromosome abnormality. Although polygenic disorders ...
s. Since heritability is less than 100% and symptoms vary markedly among identical twins with autism, environmental factors are most likely a significant cause as well. If some of the risk is due to gene-environment interaction the 90% heritability may be too high; However, in 2017, the largest study, including over three million participants, estimated the heritability at 83%.
Genetic linkage Genetic linkage is the tendency of Nucleic acid sequence, DNA sequences that are close together on a chromosome to be inherited together during the meiosis phase of sexual reproduction. Two Genetic marker, genetic markers that are physically near ...
analysis has been inconclusive; many association analyses have had inadequate power. Studies have examined more than 100 candidate genes; many genes must be examined because more than a third of genes are expressed in the brain and there are few clues on which are relevant to autism.


Causative factors

A few studies have found an association between autism and frequent use of acetaminophen (e.g. Tylenol, Paracetamol) by the mother during pregnancy. Autism is also associated with several other prenatal factors, including advanced age in either parent, and diabetes, bleeding, or use of psychiatric drugs in the mother during pregnancy. Autism was found to be indirectly linked to prepregnancy obesity and low weight mothers. It is not known whether mutations that arise spontaneously in autism and other neuropsychiatric disorders come mainly from the mother or the father, or whether the mutations are associated with parental age. However, recent studies have identified advancing paternal age as a significant indicator for ASD. Increased chance of autism has also been linked to rapid "catch-up" growth for children born to mothers who had unhealthy weight at conception. A large 2008 population study of Swedish parents of children with autism found that the parents were more likely to have been hospitalized for a mental disorder, that schizophrenia was more common among the mothers and fathers, and that depression and
personality disorder Personality disorders (PD) are a class of mental health conditions characterized by enduring maladaptive patterns of behavior, cognition, and inner experience, exhibited across many contexts and deviating from those accepted by the culture. ...
s were more common among the mothers. It is not known how many siblings of autistic individuals are themselves autistic. Several studies based on clinical samples have given quite different estimates, and these clinical samples differ in important ways from samples taken from the general community. Autism has also been shown to cluster in urban neighborhoods of high socioeconomic status. One study from California found a three to fourfold increased risk of autism in a small 30 by 40 km region centered on
West Hollywood West Hollywood is a city in Los Angeles County, California, United States. Incorporated in 1984, it is home to the Sunset Strip. As of the 2020 U.S. Census, its population was 35,757. History Most historical writings about West Hollywood be ...
,
Los Angeles Los Angeles, often referred to by its initials L.A., is the List of municipalities in California, most populous city in the U.S. state of California, and the commercial, Financial District, Los Angeles, financial, and Culture of Los Angeles, ...
.


Sex and gender differences

Boys have a higher chance of being diagnosed with autism than girls. The ASD sex ratio averages 4.3:1 and is greatly modified by cognitive impairment: it may be close to 2:1 with
intellectual disability Intellectual disability (ID), also known as general learning disability (in the United Kingdom), and formerly mental retardation (in the United States), Rosa's Law, Pub. L. 111-256124 Stat. 2643(2010).Archive is a generalized neurodevelopmental ...
and more than 5.5:1 without. Recent studies have found no association with
socioeconomic status Socioeconomic status (SES) is a measurement used by economics, economists and sociology, sociologsts. The measurement combines a person's work experience and their or their family's access to economic resources and social position in relation t ...
, and have reported inconsistent results about associations with race or
ethnicity An ethnicity or ethnic group is a group of people with shared attributes, which they Collective consciousness, collectively believe to have, and long-term endogamy. Ethnicities share attributes like language, culture, common sets of ancestry, ...
. RORA deficiency may explain some of the difference in frequency between males and females. RORA protein levels are higher in the brains of typically developing females compared to typically developing males, providing females with a buffer against RORA deficiency. This is known as the female protective effect. RORA deficiency has previously been proposed as one factor that may make males more vulnerable to autism. There is a statistically notable overlap between ASD populations and gender diverse populations.


Other findings

There exists behavioral differences and differences in brain structures between males and females with autism. Females often either mask their symptoms more (called camouflaging) or need to display more prominent symptoms to receive a diagnosis. Males tend to demonstrate common symptoms of autism such as repetitive and restricted behaviors more so than females. This difference is hypothesized to be part of why females are more likely to be underdiagnosed.


Vaccines

A common misconception is that vaccinations are the cause of children developing ASD. This is partly due to the concern of a former ingredient called
thiomersal Thiomersal (International Nonproprietary Name, INN), or thimerosal (United States Adopted Name, USAN, Japanese Accepted Name, JAN), also sold under the name merthiolate, is an organomercury compound. It is a well-established antiseptic and antif ...
, which is a substance that contains mercury. Scientific literature demonstrates that there is no causal link between thimerosal and ASD. Though the ingredient is not as prevalent in vaccines anymore, there is still concern about the link between autism and vaccinations, but there is no evidence to support this notion.


Environmental chemical exposure

One hypothesis is that exposure to environmental chemicals before the age of two months contributes to development of ASD. Human studies have mainly focused on
particulate matter Particulate matter (PM) or particulates are microscopic particles of solid or liquid matter suspended in the air. An ''aerosol'' is a mixture of particulates and air, as opposed to the particulate matter alone, though it is sometimes defin ...
or mercury. Other studies investigated the effects of pollutants in the air or
lead Lead () is a chemical element; it has Chemical symbol, symbol Pb (from Latin ) and atomic number 82. It is a Heavy metal (elements), heavy metal that is density, denser than most common materials. Lead is Mohs scale, soft and Ductility, malleabl ...
. Additionally, studies involving rodent animal models also investigated the effects of
chlorpyrifos Chlorpyrifos (CPS), also known as chlorpyrifos ethyl, is an organophosphate pesticide that has been used on crops, animals, in buildings, and in other settings, to kill several pests, including insects and worms. It acts on the nervous systems ...
. Research suggests that some genes involved in ASD may be targeted by environmental chemicals and pollutants. One
longitudinal study A longitudinal study (or longitudinal survey, or panel study) is a research design that involves repeated observations of the same variables (e.g., people) over long periods of time (i.e., uses longitudinal data). It is often a type of observationa ...
had found elevated levels of
perfluorodecanoic acid Perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) is a fluorosurfactant and has been used in industry. PFDA is a member of the group of polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), more specific is it also a perfluoroalkyl acid (PFAA). PFAS, like PFDA, are man-made and are ...
and
zearalenone Zearalenone (ZEN), also known as RAL and F-2 mycotoxin, is a potent estrogenic metabolite produced by some ''Fusarium'' and '' Gibberella'' species. Specifically, the '' Gibberella zeae'', the fungal species where zearalenone was initially detec ...
in the cord serum of children that later developed autism, suggesting that prenatal exposure may affect ASD.


Related brain structures

Key symptoms of autism spectrum disorder are impaired social and communication abilities and having a narrow scope of interest and repeated behaviors. An impairment of language used to be a key diagnostic factor, but research has led to categorizing this symptom as a specifier. One scoping review has determined multiple brain structures that appear to play a role in language related symptoms in autism spectrum disorder. For example, having a larger sized right inferior frontal gyrus is correlated with those diagnosed with autism, specifically categorized in the language impairment subgroup (but not in those without). Some research yields conflicting results however related to different structures and total language scores, in which a possible factor for this could be age. As for temporal regions, increased rightward radial diffusivity might have an association with receptive language scores. Research concerning the planum temporale and its role in language has been inconclusive. The cerebellum may also be a factor in whether a person has language impairment or not.


Symptom management

Much research centered around those with ASD that have impaired communication and seeking improvement in social interaction often investigate the use of psychosocial interventions. However, other research looks to pharmacology for treatment. Behavioral management therapy is another potential option. Overall however, treatment options are still in development.


Comorbid conditions

Autism is associated with several other conditions: *
Genetic disorder A genetic disorder is a health problem caused by one or more abnormalities in the genome. It can be caused by a mutation in a single gene (monogenic) or multiple genes (polygenic) or by a chromosome abnormality. Although polygenic disorders ...
s. About 10–15% of autism cases have an identifiable
Mendelian Mendelian inheritance (also known as Mendelism) is a type of biological inheritance following the principles originally proposed by Gregor Mendel in 1865 and 1866, re-discovered in 1900 by Hugo de Vries and Carl Correns, and later popularized ...
(single-gene) condition,
chromosome abnormality A chromosomal abnormality, chromosomal anomaly, chromosomal aberration, chromosomal mutation, or chromosomal disorder is a missing, extra, or irregular portion of chromosomal DNA. These can occur in the form of numerical abnormalities, where the ...
, or other genetic syndrome, and ASD is associated with several genetic disorders. *
Intellectual disability Intellectual disability (ID), also known as general learning disability (in the United Kingdom), and formerly mental retardation (in the United States), Rosa's Law, Pub. L. 111-256124 Stat. 2643(2010).Archive is a generalized neurodevelopmental ...
. The fraction of autistic individuals who also meet criteria for intellectual disability has been reported as anywhere from 25% to 70%, a wide variation illustrating the difficulty of assessing autistic intelligence. *
Gastrointestinal disease Gastrointestinal diseases (abbrev. GI diseases or GI illnesses) refer to diseases involving the Human gastrointestinal tract, gastrointestinal tract, namely the esophagus, stomach, small intestine, large intestine and rectum; and the accessory or ...
are a common comorbidity in patients with autism spectrum disorders, even though the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. The most common gastrointestinal symptoms reported are abdominal pain, constipation, diarrhea and bloating, reported in at least 25 percent of patients. *
Anxiety disorder Anxiety disorders are a group of mental disorders characterized by significant and uncontrollable feelings of anxiety and fear such that a person's social, occupational, and personal functions are significantly impaired. Anxiety may cause phys ...
s are common among children with ASD, although there are no firm data. Symptoms include
generalized anxiety Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is an anxiety disorder characterized by excessive, uncontrollable and often irrational worry about events or activities. Worry often interferes with daily functioning. Individuals with GAD are often overly conc ...
and
separation anxiety Separation anxiety disorder (SAD) is an anxiety disorder in which an individual experiences excessive anxiety regarding separation from home and/or from people to whom the individual has a strong emotional attachment (e.g., a parent, caregive ...
, and are likely affected by age, level of cognitive functioning, degree of social impairment, and ASD-specific difficulties. Many anxiety disorders, such as
social phobia Social anxiety disorder (SAD), also known as social phobia, is an anxiety disorder characterized by sentiments of fear and anxiety in social situations, causing considerable distress and impairing ability to function in at least some as ...
, are not commonly diagnosed in people with ASD because such symptoms are better explained by ASD itself, and it is often difficult to tell whether symptoms such as compulsive checking are part of ASD or a co-occurring anxiety problem. The prevalence of anxiety disorders in children with ASD has been reported to be anywhere between 11% and 84%. *
Epilepsy Epilepsy is a group of Non-communicable disease, non-communicable Neurological disorder, neurological disorders characterized by a tendency for recurrent, unprovoked Seizure, seizures. A seizure is a sudden burst of abnormal electrical activit ...
, with variations in risk of epilepsy due to age, cognitive level, and type of language disorder; 5–38% of children with autism have comorbid epilepsy, and only 16% of these have remission in adulthood. * Several metabolic defects, such as
phenylketonuria Phenylketonuria (PKU) is an inborn error of metabolism that results in decreased metabolism of the amino acid phenylalanine. Untreated PKU can lead to intellectual disability, seizures, behavioral problems, and mental disorders. It may also r ...
, are associated with autistic symptoms. *
Minor physical anomalies Minor physical anomalies (MPAs) are relatively minor (typically painless and, in themselves, harmless) congenital physical abnormalities consisting of features such as low-set ears, single transverse palmar crease, telecanthus, micrognathism, ma ...
are significantly increased in the autistic population. * Preempted diagnoses. Although the DSM-IV rules out concurrent diagnosis of many other conditions along with autism, the full criteria for
ADHD Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterised by symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity, impulsivity, and emotional dysregulation that are excessive and pervasive, impairing in multiple ...
,
Tourette syndrome Tourette syndrome (TS), or simply Tourette's, is a common neurodevelopmental disorder that begins in childhood or adolescence. It is characterized by multiple movement (motor) tics and at least one vocal (phonic) tic. Common tics are blinkin ...
, and other of these conditions are often present and these comorbid diagnoses are increasingly accepted. A 2008 study found that nearly 70% of children with ASD had at least one psychiatric disorder, including nearly 30% with
social anxiety disorder Social anxiety disorder (SAD), also known as social phobia, is an anxiety disorder characterized by sentiments of fear and anxiety in social situations, causing considerable distress and impairing ability to function in at least some asp ...
and similar proportions with ADHD and
oppositional defiant disorder Oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) is listed in the DSM-5 under ''Disruptive, impulse-control, and conduct disorders'' and defined as "a pattern of angry/irritable mood, argumentative/defiant behavior, or vindictiveness." This behavior is usu ...
. Childhood-onset
schizophrenia Schizophrenia () is a mental disorder characterized variously by hallucinations (typically, Auditory hallucination#Schizophrenia, hearing voices), delusions, thought disorder, disorganized thinking and behavior, and Reduced affect display, f ...
, a rare and severe form, is another preempted diagnosis whose symptoms are often present along with the symptoms of autism.


COVID-19

The
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic (also known as the coronavirus pandemic and COVID pandemic), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began with an disease outbreak, outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in December ...
may have impacted the current number of diagnoses. More assessments for ASD occurred among 4-year-olds than the current 8-year-olds when they were 4 years of age prior to the pandemic. After the pandemic, the rate of current assessments has dropped, leading to possible delayed identification of ASD.


References

{{Autism resources Autism
Autism Autism, also known as autism spectrum disorder (ASD), is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by differences or difficulties in social communication and interaction, a preference for predictability and routine, sensory processing d ...
Autism Autism, also known as autism spectrum disorder (ASD), is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by differences or difficulties in social communication and interaction, a preference for predictability and routine, sensory processing d ...