An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility, also known as ''possibiliter ergo probabiliter'', "possibly, therefore probably") is the
logical fallacy
In logic and philosophy, a formal fallacy is a pattern of reasoning rendered invalid by a flaw in its logical structure. Propositional logic, for example, is concerned with the meanings of sentences and the relationships between them. It focuses ...
of taking something for granted because it is possibly the case. The fact that an event is possible does not imply that the event is probable, nor that the event was realized.
Example
A fallacious appeal to possibility:
:If it ''can'' happen .
:It ''will'' happen.
:Something can go wrong .
:Therefore, something will go wrong .
:
:If I do not bring my umbrella
:It will rain. .
Murphy's law
Murphy's law is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."
Though similar statements and concepts have been made over the course of history, the law itself was coined by, and named after, Americ ...
is a (typically deliberate,
tongue-in-cheek
Tongue-in-cheek is an idiom that describes a humorous or sarcastic statement expressed in a serious manner.
History
The phrase originally expressed contempt, but by 1842 had acquired its modern meaning. Early users of the phrase include Sir Walte ...
) invocation of the fallacy.
See also
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Slippery slope
In a slippery slope argument, a course of action is rejected because the slippery slope advocate believes it will lead to a chain reaction resulting in an undesirable end or ends. The core of the slippery slope argument is that a specific decisi ...
References
Notes
Bibliography
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Inductive fallacies
Probability fallacies