Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is an organization within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence responsible for leading research to overcome difficult challenges relevant to the United States Intellige ...
(IARPA).
The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.
History
The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010. ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.
They funded
The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011. ACE has been covered in ''
The Washington Post
''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large n ...
'
and ''
Wired Magazine
''Wired'' (stylized as ''WIRED'') is a monthly American magazine, published in print and online editions, that focuses on how emerging technologies affect culture, the economy, and politics. Owned by Condé Nast, it is headquartered in San F ...
''. The program was concluded by late 2015. The program manager was future IARPA director
Jason Gaverick Matheny
Jason Gaverick Matheny is an American national security expert who currently serves as president and CEO of the RAND Corporation. Previously, he was a senior civil servant in the Biden Administration. He served as deputy assistant to the presiden ...
.
Goals and methods
The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts."
[ The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:][
* efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
* mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
* effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.
There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.
]
Partners
The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al.[
Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with ]SciCast SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by George Mason University with the help of a grant from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science an ...
from George Mason University
George Mason University (George Mason, Mason, or GMU) is a public research university in Fairfax County, Virginia with an independent City of Fairfax, Virginia postal address in the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area. The university was orig ...
.
References
External links
* {{official website, http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace
United States intelligence operations
Statistical forecasting