2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses

The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional basis. As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucuses were the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential nominating contest.

The results were a landslide victory for Donald Trump, with his 30-point margin being the largest margin of victory ever for a non-incumbent in the Iowa Republican caucuses. Trump won 20 delegates, Ron DeSantis won nine, Nikki Haley won eight, and Vivek Ramaswamy won three. Trump also became the first Republican ever to win a contested Iowa caucus with a majority of the vote, and third person of either major political party to do so (the others being Tom Harkin in 1992, and Al Gore in 2000). Analysts described the results as establishing him as the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, with both DeSantis's and Haley's campaigns seen as heavily damaged.

Trump also won 98 out of Iowa's 99 counties, losing Johnson County to Haley by a single vote. Ramaswamy announced the suspension of his campaign the night of the caucus, endorsing Trump, but retained his three delegates. Asa Hutchinson, who finished with less than 1% of the vote, dropped out the following day and endorsed Haley. DeSantis dropped out the following weekend and endorsed Trump.

Background and electorate

History of the Iowa caucus

Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for Republican presidential contenders. Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.

Republican electorate

It has been argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.

Commentators have noted in the 2010s the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives George W. Bush, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz in the 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.

In 2016, it was noted by ''The Des Moines Register'' that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians. In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.

Procedure

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no minimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.

Campaign developments

In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors. In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an " America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.

Nikki Haley had held 22 events in Iowa by May 19, 2023. Her campaign made ad buys of $10 million in Iowa and New Hampshire beginning in December 2023. On December 8, Haley addressed a convention center conference where she stated her campaign had momentum and needed "to have a good showing in Iowa. I don’t think that means we have to win, necessarily, but I think that we have to have a good showing."

Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis held a pair of events in the state on March 10 and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds. Reynolds remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which caused Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she would not have been elected without Trump's help. Reynolds broke her neutrality in November 2023 and endorsed DeSantis. Between October and December, DeSantis toured all 99 Iowan counties. In December, DeSantis' wife, Casey DeSantis, was widely criticized for calling on Republicans from other states to participate in the Iowa caucuses.

Asa Hutchinson focused most of his energy campaigning in the state, hoping to perform well and use that success as a springboard for the rest of his campaign.

Endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls

Results

Just minutes after the caucus events started at 7 pm local time, Trump was projected to win the most votes by the Associated Press. Trump received 20 delegates, DeSantis nine, Haley eight, and Ramaswamy three. Barring any shifts in votes after the conclusion of the Iowa Republican Party's ongoing recanvass of the caucus results, Trump won all of Iowa's counties except for Johnson County, which he lost to Haley by one vote.

DeSantis and Haley finished second and third place respectively. Ramaswamy, who placed fourth, announced the suspension of his campaign the night of the caucus, endorsing Trump, but will retain his three expected delegates. Hutchinson announced the suspension of his campaign the day after the caucus. DeSantis, despite finishing in second place, announced the suspension of his campaign six days after the caucus.

The DeSantis campaign was highly critical of "media outlets" calling the results before the caucuses had closed.

According to The Des Moines Register, as well as The Hill the turnout was reduced compared to the previous caucuses in 2020, due to the colder than normal weather.

See also

* 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses
* 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
* 2024 United States presidential election
* 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
* 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References

{{2024 Republican primaries

Republican presidential caucuses
Iowa
Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
Iowa Republican caucuses