2023 Valencian Regional Election

A regional election was held in the Valencian Community on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Corts of the autonomous community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The ruling " Botànic Agreement" of left-of-centre parties was re-elected in the 2019 election for a second term in office, albeit with a diminished majority of 52 to 47. Opinion polls held in the ensuing years saw a collapse of the vote for Citizens (Cs), particularly following the 2021 Madrilenian election, and its capitalization by both the People's Party (PP) and the far-right Vox party, to the point of putting at risk a new Botànic majority. The coalition government was further weakened by the resignation in June 2022 of Compromís figurehead Mónica Oltra as both cabinet member and deputy, following her being accused of negligence and concealment in an alleged case of sexual abuse of a minor under the protection of her ministry by her ex-husband. On the other hand, Ximo Puig's government was generally well-valued in opinion polls for its management of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy and the political situation in the Valencian Community, which during this period saw the organization of the Benidorm Fest, the signing of a collaboration agreement with the Volkswagen Group for the development of a battery gigafactory in Sagunt and Ford's decision to equip its plant in Almussafes with the manufacture of electric cars.

The election saw a victory for the PP which, together with Vox, was able to command a majority of seats in the Corts. Puig's Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV) increased its vote share and seat count, but this was not enough to compensate for the loss of support of both Compromís and Unidas Podem, the latter of which failed to reach the minimum threshold. The collapse of Citizens (CS) helped fuel the PP's recovery. At 67.0%, turnout was the lowest ever for a Valencian regional election. As a result, PP's Carlos Mazón was able to get elected as new president of the Valencian Government through a coalition with Vox. This coalition government would last until July 2024, when Vox leader Santiago Abascal forced the break up of all PP–Vox governments at the regional level over a national controversy regarding the distribution of unaccompanied migrant minors among the autonomous communities, after which the PP was left in minority.

Overview

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Corts was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other).

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislature's term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when needed, by the designated substitutes, of which the list could include up to ten.

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 April 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 28 April 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGV no later than 4 April 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 28 May 2023.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

By late 2021, speculation emerged on possible snap elections in Andalusia and Castile and León to be held at some point during the spring of 2022, with it transpiring that President Ximo Puig was evaluating the opportunity of an early election in the Valencian Community to be held simultaneously with those. However, Puig publicly and repeatedly rejected the idea of a snap election being held, an opinion he reiterated following the announcement of an election in Castile and León for 13 February 2022, and after the calling of the 2022 Andalusian election for 19 June. On 25 December 2022, Puig confirmed the election would be held in May together with the scheduled local and regional elections.

The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGV, setting the election date for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to convene on 26 June.

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the lists of candidates, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Campaign

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

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Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

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Bibliography

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{{Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s

2020s
2023 regional elections in Spain
2023 in the Valencian Community