2021 Scottish Election

The 2021 Scottish Parliament election took place on 6 May 2021 under the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998. It was the sixth Scottish Parliament election since the parliament was re-established in 1999. 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament were elected. The election was held alongside the Senedd election in Wales, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland. As a result, Parliament went into recess on 5 May, the day before the election. The main parties fielding candidates were: the Scottish National Party (SNP), led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon; the Scottish Conservatives, led by Douglas Ross; Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar; the Scottish Liberal Democrats, led by Willie Rennie, and the Scottish Greens, jointly led by Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. Of those five parties, three had changed their leader since the 2016 election.

Newer parties set up since the 2016 election included: Reform UK Scotland, led by Michelle Ballantyne; the Alba Party, led by former First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond; and All for Unity, led by George Galloway. These parties only competed for seats on the regional lists. They all failed to win any seats.

The election resulted in the SNP winning a fourth consecutive term in government. They won 64 seats, a net increase of one from the 2016 election. The SNP gained Edinburgh Central, Ayr, and East Lothian, as well as winning the largest share of the popular vote and the largest number of constituency seats in any Scottish Parliament election (62). The Greens won eight seats, their best result to date at a Scottish Parliament election, while the Conservatives retained second place with 31 seats. Labour had its worst-ever result with 22 seats, and the lowest share of the vote in both constituency and list votes for either Westminster or Holyrood since 1910. The Liberal Democrats also had their worst showing at a Holyrood election to date, winning only four seats.

The SNP and the Greens, both of which support Scottish independence, won 72 of the 129 seats in the parliament. Unionist parties (that is, those against independence) achieved a small majority of votes in constituency contests, whilst pro-independence parties achieved a small majority in the regional lists. The turnout was 63.5%, which is the highest ever at a Scottish Parliament election. Following the election, the third Sturgeon government was formed. It initially consisted of just the SNP, but later included Slater and Harvie of the Scottish Greens as junior ministers after the two parties negotiated a power-sharing agreement.

Background

Electoral events

2016 Scottish Parliament election

At the 2016 election, the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) lost its parliamentary majority but was able to continue governing under Nicola Sturgeon as a minority administration. At the same election, the Conservatives overtook Labour to place second, whilst the Greens overtook the Liberal Democrats to place fourth. No representatives of minor parties were elected to the Parliament.

Other elections

Four further elections affecting Scotland took place between the 2016 and 2021 Scottish Parliament elections:

* May 2017: Scottish local government elections. The SNP retained its position as the largest party in terms of votes and councillors. The Conservatives displaced Labour as the second largest party, while the Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of councillors despite increasing their share of the vote.

* June 2017: United Kingdom general election. The SNP lost 21 of its MPs, winning 35 seats. The Conservatives won 13 seats, with their highest vote share in any election in Scotland since 1979. Labour won seven seats, while the Liberal Democrats won four.

* May 2019: European Parliament election. This was dominated by the impending Brexit-deadline. The SNP won three of the six seats in Scotland, with the Brexit Party, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each winning one seat.

* December 2019: United Kingdom general election. The SNP increased its share of the vote, reclaiming thirteen of the seats they lost in 2017. The Conservatives won six Scottish seats with a net lost of seven. The Liberal Democrats won four seats with no net losses, but their leader, Jo Swinson, lost her own seat to the SNP. Labour was reduced to a single Scottish seat, a net loss of six.

Leadership changes

Three parties had undergone leadership changes since the 2016 election. In August 2017, Kezia Dugdale resigned as leader of Scottish Labour and was replaced by Richard Leonard. In January 2021, less than four months before the election, Leonard resigned. Anas Sarwar won the subsequent leadership election.

In August 2019, Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie became co-leaders of the Scottish Greens.

Also in August 2019, Ruth Davidson resigned as leader of the Scottish Conservatives and was succeeded by Jackson Carlaw. Carlaw resigned as leader in July 2020, with Douglas Ross winning the subsequent leadership election unopposed.

Expansion of the electorate

The 2021 election was the first to come after the passage of the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act, which extended the franchise to those serving prison sentences of 12 months or less. In 2005, the United Kingdom was found in breach of Protocol 1, Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights in regards to prisoner voting rights in the European Court of Human Rights as a result of ''Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2)''; the Act brings Scotland in line with the court ruling.

This act also allows all foreign nationals resident in Scotland to vote and all those with indefinite leave to remain or equivalent status, including pre–settled status in the United Kingdom, to stand as candidates. A BBC News report in April 2021 said that there were around 55,000 foreign nationals who had been given the right to vote as a result of these changes, including 20,000 refugees.

Date

Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally have been held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2016 election, i.e. in May 2020. This would have clashed with the proposed date of a UK general election, although this became a moot point when a snap UK general election was held in June 2017 (a further UK general election was held in December 2019). In November 2015, the Scottish Government published a Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill, which proposed to extend the term of the Parliament to five years. This was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 25 February 2016 and received Royal Assent on 30 March 2016, setting the new date for the election as 6 May 2021.

The Scottish Elections (Dates) Act did not affect the legal possibilities for the Parliament to be dissolved earlier, those being;

* That the date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.
* If Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved, with at least two-thirds of the Members (i.e. 86 Members) voting in favour, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.
* If Parliament fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within 28 days, irrespective of whether at the beginning or in the middle of a parliamentary term. Therefore, if the First Minister resigned, Parliament would then have 28 days to elect a successor and if no new First Minister was elected then the Presiding Officer would ask for Parliament to be dissolved. This process could also be triggered if the First Minister lost a vote of confidence by a simple majority, as they must then resign.

Nevertheless, no extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general election would be in addition to the ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case it would supplant it. This would not affect the year in which the subsequent ordinary general election would be held.

On 16 November 2020, the Scottish General Election (Coronavirus) Bill was introduced. This draft legislation stated that while the next election was intended to be held on 6 May 2021, the Presiding Officer would gain the power to postpone the election by up to six months if the spread of COVID-19 made that date impractical. The bill also proposed to change the date of dissolution to the day before the election, meaning that the Parliament could be recalled during the election period. The bill was enacted and received Royal Assent on 29 January 2021. Parliament was in fact recalled on 12 April, to allow MSPs to mark the death of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.

Retiring MSPs

James Dornan announced in February 2020 his intention to retire at the next Holyrood election, but reversed this decision some months later.

Parties

The SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats fielded candidates in all 73 constituencies and all eight of the regional ballots. Five other parties contested both all eight regions and at least one constituency: the Scottish Greens (12 constituencies) the Scottish Libertarian Party (9), the Scottish Family Party (7), UKIP (5) and the Freedom Alliance (4). Four parties – Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party, Alba Party, All for Unity, and Reform UK – stood in all eight electoral regions, but did not contest any constituencies.

Six other parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: TUSC (3 regions and 3 constituencies), Restore Scotland (2 regions, 4 constituencies), Scotia Future (2 of each), the Communist Party of Britain (2 regions and 1 constituency), the Reclaim Party (1 of each) and the Vanguard Party (also 1 of each). Five other parties – Independent Green Voice (5 regions), Renew (5), the Social Democratic Party (2), Women's Equality (2) and Animal Welfare (1) – contested some of the regions, but not any constituencies.

The Scottish Socialist Party, which participated in the last election as part of the electoral alliance RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, opted not to participate in this election, for the first time since its inception.

List of parties contesting all regional ballots

Election system, seats and regions

The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament was 129.

The Scottish Parliament uses an additional member system (AMS), designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions, each sub-divided into 8 to 10 single-member constituencies. There is a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one MSP by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method using the constituency results is used to elect these additional MSPs.

The boundaries of the 73 constituencies last changed as of the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, as did the configuration of the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament. These revisions were the outcome of the First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions conducted by the Boundary Commission for Scotland; the Review was announced on 3 July 2007 and the Commission published its final report on 26 May 2010.

The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former UK Parliament constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The size difference between Westminster and Holyrood boundaries was due to diverge further upon the implementation of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which has not been voted upon by Parliament. The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies for a UK total of 650 MPs commenced in England in 2021 and will complete for the UK by 2023.

Campaign

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021. The Scottish Conservatives launched their campaign the same day, with a focus on promoting Scotland's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

On 26 March 2021, the Alba Party was publicly launched by former First Minister of Scotland and SNP leader, Alex Salmond. The party announced plans to stand list-only candidates. Two sitting SNP MPs later defected to the Alba party. The Action for Independence party, which had intended to pursue a similar list-only strategy, announced they would stand down their candidates in favour of Alba. Sturgeon said she would refuse to have any dealings with Salmond unless he apologises to the women who had accused him of harassment. Salmond was ultimately acquitted of all charges.

BBC Scotland announced that it would broadcast two debates between the main parties' leaders; the first was aired on 30 March 2021 and was moderated by the corporation's Scotland editor Sarah Smith. The debate included key questions from the audience on the COVID-19 recovery, climate change, and a second referendum on Scottish independence. The second BBC debate was held on 4 May 2021 and was moderated by BBC Scotland's political editor Glenn Campbell.

Commercial broadcaster STV held their leaders' debate on 13 April, moderated by their political editor Colin Mackay. NUS Scotland held a debate, specifically on student issues, on 20 April; it was moderated by NUS Scotland president Matt Crilly and featured the three main party leaders.

On 1 April, Planet Radio announced that their Clyde 2 station would be hosting a Leaders Phone-In with the main party leaders every Sunday before the election. Douglas Ross was the first to be interviewed on 4 April, with Willie Rennie following on 18 April. Whilst Nicola Sturgeon was set to be interviewed on 11 April, campaigning was delayed following the death of Prince Philip and her phone-in was instead held on 22 April. Patrick Harvie followed on 25 April; and Anas Sarwar had the final phone-in on 2 May.

Following Prince Philip's death on 9 April, the SNP, Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats said they would suspend election campaigning until further notice. After discussion between the parties, they agreed to resume campaigning after a special parliamentary session on 12 April to make tributes and to pause activities again on the day of the funeral (17 April).

Election debates

Opinion polling

Graph of opinion poll results prior to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Trendlines are 30-day moving averages.

;Key
SNP – Scottish National Party

Conservative – Scottish Conservatives

Labour – Scottish Labour

Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Green – Scottish Greens

UKIP – UK Independence Party

Reform – Reform UK

SSP – Scottish Socialist Party

Alba – Alba Party

AFU – All for Unity

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2016 result to change hands. The most marginal opportunity for the Greens was in Glasgow Kelvin, which they needed a 7.1% swing to gain. The Liberal Democrats' best bet was Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, which required a 6.1% swing. The SNP ended up holding both of these constituencies.

SNP targets

Conservative targets

Labour targets

Results

Overall

(Note: no mechanism is used to have the overall seat counts for each party reflect the party share of the overall vote. Each region is taken independently and seats in each region are allocated just as per the region's vote.)

Votes summary

Central Scotland

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Glasgow

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Highlands and Islands

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Lothian

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Mid Scotland and Fife

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North East Scotland

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South Scotland

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West Scotland

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Constituency seat changes compared to 2016

MSPs who lost their seats

Analysis

The SNP won 64 seats, falling one seat short of an overall majority. Some commentators put this down to unionists voting tactically for Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates. According to psephologist John Curtice, "Denying the SNP an overall majority was, indeed, a collective effort – at least on the part of Unionist voters, who on the constituency ballot demonstrated a remarkable willingness to back whichever pro-Union party appeared to be best placed locally to defeat the SNP. ..These patterns had a decisive impact on the outcome." This was apparent in seats like Dumbarton, where incumbent Labour MSP Jackie Baillie saw her 0.3% majority increased to 3.9%, whilst both the Conservative and Lib Dem vote share decreased.

In '' The National'', Emer O'Toole questioned whether social media adverts with "a lack of transparency over funding" may have cost the SNP key seats as well. The day before the election, ''The Guardian'' reported that anti-independence groups and campaigners had "spent tens of thousands of pounds in the past week", including on Facebook adverts, calling for tactical voting to prevent the SNP getting a majority. One of these groups was Scotland Matters, whose founder, Professor Hugh Pennington said, "Across the country as a whole, tactical voting is obviously one of the ways forward to basically harm the SNP, not to put too fine a point on it."

Additionally, the Greens claimed that they may have been deprived of two seats because of Independent Green Voice (IGV), a far-right party which has nothing to do with the Scottish Greens (who support Scottish independence). IGV received nearly 10,000 votes, including 2,210 in Glasgow (where the Greens were 1,000 short of gaining a seat) and 1,690 in South Scotland (where the Greens fell 100 short). This potentially prevented pro-independence parties from having a 19-seat majority instead of 15 seats.

The ''Scottish and Welsh Election Studies 2021'', revealed on 13 June, found that around a third of Scottish voters who decided to vote differently in the run-up to the election did so to stop another party, and that 90% of those who did this did so in a bid to prevent the SNP winning the seat. Rob Johns, Professor in Politics at the University of Essex, said: " found a lot more switching than we had expected. The polls had suggested that not much was changing and obviously the overall election result was almost eerily similar to 2016. That can mean that nobody has changed their mind or it can mean lots of people have changed their mind – but these have cancelled out as people have moved in opposing directions. We found there was quite a lot more of that than we had expected."

Voter demographics

Data from Savanta ComRes:

Campaign spending

Aftermath

Nicola Sturgeon was nominated as First Minister by a vote held on 18 May 2021. Her cabinet was approved by the parliament two days later and thus the Third Sturgeon government, a minority government, was formed.

On 3 August 2021, it was reported that a co-operation agreement between the SNP and the Greens was "on the brink of being finalised" and could see Green MSPs take ministerial positions in government. On 19 August, the power-sharing agreement between the two parties was announced. Under the terms of the agreement, the Greens have two MSPs appointed as junior ministers in the government who are invited to attend cabinet meetings when their portfolios are being discussed. The Greens signed up to the bulk of the SNP's policies, but in areas of disagreement such as international relations and fee-paying schools the two parties are free to publicly disagree. The agreement states that the Greens support the government on votes of confidence and supply.

A deal that would see Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater made ministers was revealed on 26 August, subject to being voted upon by Green Party members. Two days later, members of both parties overwhelmingly voted in favour of the deal.

See also

Other elections in the UK which were held on the same day:
* 2021 London Assembly election
* 2021 London mayoral election
* 2021 Senedd election
* 2021 United Kingdom local elections

Footnotes

References

External links

Election 2021
(on the Scottish Parliament website)

{{2021 Scottish Parliament election

General elections to the Scottish Parliament
Scottish Parliament election
Scottish Parliament election
Scottish Parliament election, 2021