2016 Iowa Republican caucuses

The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.

Ted Cruz was able to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucus by winning over Evangelical caucus-goers; Cruz won 51,666 caucus votes or 27.6%, giving him a net gain of one delegate over Trump. Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and held small events. Cruz outperformed his polling average, which predicted a narrow Trump victory in the caucus.

Following poor performances in the caucuses, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns.

Procedure

According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race.
The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:

* Jeb Bush
* Ben Carson
* Chris Christie
* Ted Cruz
* Carly Fiorina
* Jim Gilmore
* John Kasich
* Marco Rubio
* Donald Trump
* Rand Paul
* Rick Santorum
* Mike Huckabee

Caucus Operations

The caucuses began at 7:00 PM local time across 1,681 precincts statewide. After the selection of caucus chairs and secretaries, campaign representatives made speeches supporting their candidates before voters cast their preferences on paper ballots. The 2016 Republican caucuses set a new turnout record with 186,932 participants, significantly higher than the 121,503 who participated in 2012.

Campaign

The Iowa caucuses required extensive ground organization and retail politics from the candidates. Ted Cruz's campaign pursued a traditional grassroots approach, completing the " Full Grassley" by visiting all 99 counties in Iowa while building relationships with evangelical and conservative leaders. His campaign utilized sophisticated data analytics and microtargeting to identify and turn out likely supporters.

Donald Trump opted for a less conventional strategy, focusing on large rallies and earned media coverage that drew thousands of attendees across the state. However, questions persisted about whether his unorthodox approach could successfully convert rally attendance into caucus participation from first-time voters.

Marco Rubio positioned himself as an electable conservative alternative, particularly appealing to suburban voters and party regulars. His campaign emphasized his youth and vision for a "New American Century," gaining momentum in the final weeks before the caucuses.

Forums and debates

November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, Iowa
The Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz. Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police.

January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa
The seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace. This was the last debate before actual voting began with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016. Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate.

Endorsements

Cruz secured several influential endorsements that proved crucial to his victory, including Congressman Steve King, who represented Iowa's 4th congressional district, and Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a prominent evangelical organization.

Trump notably received limited support from Iowa Republican officials, though he led most pre-caucus polls. Meanwhile, Rubio gained important momentum when he received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and other newspapers in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Withdrawn candidates

Polling

Aggregate polls

Results

Results by County

Aftermath and Controversy

The caucus results led to immediate controversy when Ben Carson accused Cruz's campaign of employing dishonest tactics, specifically claiming that Cruz supporters falsely told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out to convince them to switch their votes.

Trump subsequently accused Cruz of "stealing" the Iowa caucuses through fraud, taking to social media to demand that Cruz be disqualified and the election results invalidated. These accusations foreshadowed continued tensions between Cruz and Trump as the primary campaign progressed. According to an interview of Trump with Greta Van Susteren of ''On the Record'', he said, “Everything about it was disgraceful. It was a fraud as far as I was concerned.”

The results also had an immediate impact on the Republican field, as Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns in the days following the caucuses.

Geographic and Demographic Analysis

Exit polling revealed Cruz's victory was built on strong support from evangelical voters, who comprised 62% of caucus participants. He won 33% of evangelical voters, while also performing strongly in rural counties and areas with high evangelical populations.

Trump's support was notably stronger in eastern Iowa and working-class areas, particularly along the Mississippi River. He performed best among first-time caucus participants and voters without college degrees. Rubio showed particular strength in suburban areas around Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and other population centers, winning 28% of college graduates and performing well among late-deciding voters.

See also

* 2016 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

Notes

References

External links

RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process


Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Iowa

{{2016 Republican Primaries

2016
Iowa
Republican caucuses
February 2016 in the United States