2008 Iowa Democratic Caucuses

The 2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus occurred on January 3, and was the state caucuses of the Iowa Democratic Party. It was the first election for the Democrats of the 2008 presidential election. Also referred to as "the First in the Nation Caucus," it was the first election of the primary season on both the Democratic and Republican sides. Of the eight major Democratic presidential candidates, then-U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois received the most votes and was ultimately declared the winner of the Iowa Democratic Caucus of 2008, making him the first African American to win the caucus and the first African American to win a primary state since Jesse Jackson in 1988. Former U.S. Senator John Edwards of North Carolina came in second place and then-U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York finished third, though Clinton received more delegates than Edwards. Campaigning had begun as early as two years before the event.

As of the 2020 election, this is the last time that a non-incumbent candidate, Republican or Democrat, who won Iowa would go on to become president.

History of the caucus

The Iowa Caucuses have historically been the first held in the United States. The caucus marked the traditional and formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election, and the process in which members of the Democratic Party gathered to make policy decisions.

Iowa state law mandates that its caucus must be held at least eight days before any other meeting, caucus, or primary for the presidential nominating process. Therefore, the Iowa Caucuses have always been traditionally the leading state in the nominating process. Not only did controversy brew between the candidates, but the caucuses themselves drew a large amount of media attention. The decisions of the Iowans often affect the rest of the campaign season. Barack Obama's victory in Iowa helped establish him as one of the Democratic frontrunners of 2008 and was a first step toward his eventual nomination.

Process

The caucuses followed the regular procedures of the Democratic Party process. Any voter who was a registered Democrat and a resident of Iowa was eligible to participate in the event. Individuals could have chosen to register or change their party affiliation at the door. It was estimated that 60 percent of the caucusgoers would have attended the caucuses for the first time. All of the caucusgoers met in public buildings or schools in their respective precincts and divided themselves into groups; each group represented a candidate. The voting was done publicly in a voice vote. To be viable, each preference group or candidate needed at least 15 percent of the caucusgoers' votes. If a candidate received less than 15 percent of the caucusgoers' votes, then the supporters of that non-viable candidate had 30 minutes to join a viable candidate's group, join another non-viable candidate's group to make the candidate viable, join an uncommitted group, or choose not to be counted as a voter.

In Iowa, there were 1,784 precincts for the caucuses. Each viable preference group at each caucus elected a certain number of delegates proportional to the group's size that would represent the candidate at the county conventions. There are 99 counties in Iowa, and their Democratic conventions took place on March 15, 2008. At these conventions, a subset of delegates were chosen to attend the district, then state conventions. At the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention on June 14, 2008, a subset of delegates were chosen to attend the Democratic National Convention held August 25–28, 2008, in Denver, Colorado. As in the precinct caucuses, the pledged delegates to the national convention proportionally represented the candidates compared to the results of the state caucus.

Delegate allocation

The delegate allocation to the Democratic National Convention was as follows: 29 district delegates proportionally represented a candidate's support at each congressional district. The First Congressional District receives six pledged delegates, the Second Congressional District receives seven, the Third Congressional District receives six, the Fourth Congressional District receives six, and the Fifth Congressional District receives four. All of these pledged delegates represent each congressional district independently; they are not affected by the results of the state convention.

At the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention, on the other hand, 16 pledged delegates proportionally represented the candidates' support. Ten of these delegates were designated as at-large, meaning that they represent the entire state as a whole. The other six were referred to as ''Party Leaders and Elected Officials'' (PLEO). These may include members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, the Governor, and former party leaders. Not all of the PLEOs were pledged, but if they were, they would represent the state as a whole along with the at-large delegates. In total, the Democratic presidential candidates were allocated a total of 45 pledged delegates, depending on their support in each district and in the state.

Twelve delegates that did not represent caucus results were sent to the Democratic National Convention; they are referred to as ''unpledged.'' Eleven of them are PLEOs, which include six members of the DNC, one U.S. Senator, three U.S. Representatives, and one Governor. Because these unpledged delegates' profiles are usually high-profile elected officials, they are referred to as ''superdelegates.'' The other unpledged delegate is an ''add-on'' delegate, who is selected at the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention.

While this process lasts for a period of approximately five months, the results of the state caucus are usually predictable by the results of the precincts' caucuses combined. Therefore, the results of the precinct caucuses provide a good measurement of Iowa's delegation to the Democratic National Convention.

Pre-caucus polls

Before the caucuses, the Des Moines Register reported that during a poll of 800 likely Democratic caucus goers from December 27 to December 30, 2007, the candidates had the following results:
* Barack Obama - 32%
* Hillary Clinton - 25%
* John Edwards - 24%
* Bill Richardson - 6%
* Joe Biden - 4%
* Christopher Dodd - 2%
* Dennis Kucinich - 1%
* Mike Gravel - 0%
* Not sure/Uncommitted - 6%
The above results have a margin of sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points.

Barack Obama's results in the opinion polls rose from 28% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November 2007. This was in part a result of a "dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents." Hillary Rodham Clinton remained at a constant 25%, while John Edwards was almost unchanged when his ratings increased to 24% from 23% in November. Approximately one-third of likely caucusgoers said that they could have been persuaded to choose a different candidate before the caucuses.

The December results of the