The 2004 general elections defied the predictions made by pre-poll predictions and exit polls and allowed the newly formed UPA alliance led by

Sonia Gandhi Sonia Gandhi (''née'' Maino; born 9 December 1946) is an Indian politician. She is the longest serving president of the Indian National Congress, a social democratic political party, which has governed India for most of its post-independe ...

, to come to power. This election also saw the rise of marginalized parties like the left, to join forces with the opposition, which led to a major realignment in

social Social organisms, including human(s), live collectively in interacting populations. This interaction is considered social whether they are aware of it or not, and whether the exchange is voluntary or not. Etymology The word "social" derives from ...

and

political Politics (from , ) is the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations among individuals, such as the distribution of resources or status. The branch of social science that studi ...

power.
Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a

hung parliament A hung parliament is a term used in legislatures primarily under the Westminster system to describe a situation in which no single political party or pre-existing coalition (also known as an alliance or bloc) has an absolute majority of legisl ...

. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a large wealthy middle class, and thus it achieved its overwhelming victory.
The reverses in the pre-poll predictions are ascribed to various reasons depending on the point of view. * People were more concerned about issues of their immediate environment such as

water scarcity Water scarcity (closely related to water stress or water crisis) is the lack of fresh water resources to meet the standard water demand. There are two types of water scarcity: physical or economic water scarcity. Physical water scarcity is whe ...

, drought, etc., than national issues. * The anti-incumbency factor was at work for the BJP allies.

State by State analysis

Andhra Pradesh

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis

Karnataka

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis

Kerala

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis

Tamil Nadu

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis

References

External links

Verdict 2004
{{DEFAULTSORT:2004 Indian General Election Analysis By The Hindu 2004 Indian general election