1992 Famine In Somalia
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The 1992 famine in Somalia resulted from a severe
drought A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D.  Jiang, A.  Khan, W.  Pokam Mba, D.  Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, ...
and devastation caused by warring factions in southern Somalia, primarily the Somali National Front, in the fertile inter-riverine
breadbasket The breadbasket of a country or of a region is an area which, because of the richness of the soil and/or advantageous climate, produces large quantities of wheat or other grain. Rice bowl is a similar term used to refer to Southeast Asia; Calif ...
between the Jubba and Shebelle rivers. The resulting famine primarily affected residents living in the riverine area, predominantly in Bay Region, and those
internally displaced An internally displaced person (IDP) is someone who is forced to leave their home but who remains within their country's borders. They are often referred to as refugees, although they do not fall within the legal definitions of a refugee. I ...
by the civil war. During the second half of 1992, the famine began to recede, partly due to the lull in fighting, which allowed the first crop harvest in the Lower Shebelle region, and also due to large-scale international food deliveries. Local Somali-led initiatives formed to address starvation were eventually overwhelmed, particularly in the Bay region. The crisis led to the creation of
UNOSOM I United Nations Operation in Somalia I (UNOSOM I) was the first part of a United Nations (UN) sponsored effort to provide, facilitate, and secure humanitarian relief in Somalia, as well as to monitor the first UN-brokered ceasefire of the Somal ...
in April 1992. The
Red Cross The organized International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a Humanitarianism, humanitarian movement with approximately 16million volunteering, volunteers, members, and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ...
took lead of the response, spending more than half of its 1992 budget on the crisis and distributing 75% of all relief in Somalia.' From August to December 1992, the
United States The United States of America (USA), also known as the United States (U.S.) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It is a federal republic of 50 U.S. state, states and a federal capital district, Washington, D.C. The 48 ...
operated an aid
airlift An airlift is the organized delivery of Materiel, supplies or personnel primarily via military transport aircraft. Airlifting consists of two distinct types: strategic and tactical. Typically, strategic airlifting involves moving material lo ...
to the Red Cross that saved approximately 40,000 lives.' In December 1992, UNITAF (Operation Restore Hope) was established to succeed UNOSOM I, deploying over 30,000
US military The United States Armed Forces are the military forces of the United States. U.S. federal law names six armed forces: the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and the Coast Guard. Since 1949, all of the armed forces, except th ...
-led troops to Somalia with the initial objective of providing security for relief groups. This had the effect of speeding the conclusion of the crisis by about a month. During early 1993, the famine was largely over. In March of 1993, UNITAF transitioned to UNOSOM II. Of the approximately 100,000 lives saved as a result of various form of international assistance, 10,000–25,000 were during the UNITAF and UNOSOM II operations.' The crisis resulted in an estimated 200,000–300,000 deaths.


Causes and contributing factors

Before the full outbreak of the
Somali Civil War The Somali Civil War (; ) is an List of ongoing armed conflicts, ongoing civil war that is taking place in Somalia. It grew out of resistance to the military junta which was led by Siad Barre during the 1980s. From 1988 to 1990, the Somali Armed ...
, food shortages had started during summer of 1990 in the last year of President Siad Barres rule. At the start of 1991, the formal economy collapsed following several years of decline as the
Somali Democratic Republic The Somali Democratic Republic (; , ; ) was a socialist state in Somalia that existed from 1969 to 1991. Established in October 1969, the Somali Democratic Republic emerged following a 1969 Somali coup d'état, coup d'état led by Major General ...
was toppled by rebel groups. During 1991 and 1992 southern Somalia was struck by an exceptionally harsh drought. Concurrently, traditional coping methods broke down as the
civil war A civil war is a war between organized groups within the same Sovereign state, state (or country). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government policies.J ...
spread into the south and
law enforcement Law enforcement is the activity of some members of the government or other social institutions who act in an organized manner to enforce the law by investigating, deterring, rehabilitating, or punishing people who violate the rules and norms gove ...
disintegrated. The largest contributing factor behind the famine was the devastation inflicted on infrastructure and farmland by warfare in the agricultural inter-riverine regions. After former President Barre was ejected from
Mogadishu Mogadishu, locally known as Xamar or Hamar, is the capital and List of cities in Somalia by population, most populous city of Somalia. The city has served as an important port connecting traders across the Indian Ocean for millennia and has ...
by
United Somali Congress The United Somali Congress (USC, ) was one of the major rebel organizations in Somalia. Formed in 1989, it played a leading role in the ouster of the government of Siad Barre in 1991. Following infighting, the USC later splintered into two win ...
(USC) forces in January 1991, his newly formed faction, the '' Somali National Front'' (SNF), withdrew far south of the city into the nations fertile
breadbasket The breadbasket of a country or of a region is an area which, because of the richness of the soil and/or advantageous climate, produces large quantities of wheat or other grain. Rice bowl is a similar term used to refer to Southeast Asia; Calif ...
. Lacking supplies of their own to sustain themselves, Barres forces ravaged the grain stores of inter-riverine agricultural belt around the Jubba and Shebelle rivers.' During this period SNF forces also destroyed pumps and farming equipment, resulting in a near complete halt to agriculture production. The Somali National Front is widely considered to bear primary responsibility for inducing the famine.' This dire food supply situation was further exacerbated by the serious instability caused by fighting between the SNF and anti-Barre rebels over fertile regions, the most powerful of which was the ''Somali Liberation Army'' (an anti-Barre rebel coalition preceding the ''
Somali National Alliance The Somali National Alliance (abbreviated SNA) was a major politico-military faction formed on 16 June 1992 by four different rebel groups that had been in opposition to the regime of former President Mohamed Siad Barre. The SNA was among the f ...
'') led by General Mohamed Farah Aidid.


Famine

As
agricultural Agriculture encompasses crop and livestock production, aquaculture, and forestry for food and non-food products. Agriculture was a key factor in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created f ...
production ceased, food prices skyrocketed across the south in mid-1991. In November later that year, major battles in
Mogadishu Mogadishu, locally known as Xamar or Hamar, is the capital and List of cities in Somalia by population, most populous city of Somalia. The city has served as an important port connecting traders across the Indian Ocean for millennia and has ...
and Kismayo closed the nations main ports. This led to the near disappearance of food from many markets across southern Somalia. Warnings of famine began around December 1991, but were largely ignored by the United Nations and relief agencies. In March 1992, the
Red Cross The organized International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a Humanitarianism, humanitarian movement with approximately 16million volunteering, volunteers, members, and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ...
declared Somalia the worlds "most urgent tragedy" and warned that thousands would begin dying within weeks. At the start of April 1992, General Aidids Somali Liberation Army coalition began its final major offensive to push the Somali National Front out of the southern regions.' According to UNOSOM advisor John Drysdale:
The famine was a combination of drought and a seven-month military occupation of the area by three divisions of
Siad Barre Mohammed Siad Barre (, Osmanya script: , ''Muhammad Ziād Barīy''; 6 October 1919 – 2 January 1995) was a Somali military officer, politician, and revolutionary who served as the third president of Somalia from 21 October 1969 to 26 Janu ...
’s army. The former president had moved his headquarters from the
Gedo Gedo (, , , or ''Ghedu'') is an administrative region ('' gobol'') in Jubaland, southern Somalia. Its regional capital is Garbahaarreey. The region was formed during 1974 and is bordered by the Ogaden in Ethiopia, the North Eastern Province ...
region to
Baidoa Baidoa (, Somali (Af-Maxaa): , ) is the largest city of the South West State of Somalia. Between 2002 and 2014, Baidoa was the capital of the South West State. In 2014, the capital was changed to Barawa. Overview Baydhabo is the main hub of ...
on September 15, 1991, to prepare for a military reoccupation of Mogadishu seven months later. Meanwhile, his soldiers plundered grain stores in this agricultural area, destroying pumps and implements in their wake. Farming came to a standstill. Barre’s army of occupation did not leave the area until April 22, 1992. On the road to Wanle Weyn it suffered its initial defeat at Aideed’s hands before retreating rapidly to the
Kenya Kenya, officially the Republic of Kenya, is a country located in East Africa. With an estimated population of more than 52.4 million as of mid-2024, Kenya is the 27th-most-populous country in the world and the 7th most populous in Africa. ...
border. Its seven month occupation left villages upon villages of destitute farming communities. It took three months for the impact of growing mass starvation to hit the world’s television screens.
The famine was highly selective and affected primarily two groups: the inhabitants along the Jubba and Shebelle
river A river is a natural stream of fresh water that flows on land or inside Subterranean river, caves towards another body of water at a lower elevation, such as an ocean, lake, or another river. A river may run dry before reaching the end of ...
ine area and
internally displaced people An internally displaced person (IDP) is someone who is forced to leave their home but who remains within their country's borders. They are often referred to as refugees, although they do not fall within the legal definitions of a refugee. I ...
, primarily in the Bay region. According to a
Red Cross The organized International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a Humanitarianism, humanitarian movement with approximately 16million volunteering, volunteers, members, and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ...
nutritional surveys,
pastoralists Pastoralism is a form of animal husbandry where domesticated animals (known as "livestock") are released onto large vegetated outdoor lands (pastures) for grazing, historically by nomadic people who moved around with their herds. The anima ...
and townspeople had near normal levels of nutrition while farmers along the rivers and those displaced in camps outside settlements by fighting were severely malnourished.
Baidoa Baidoa (, Somali (Af-Maxaa): , ) is the largest city of the South West State of Somalia. Between 2002 and 2014, Baidoa was the capital of the South West State. In 2014, the capital was changed to Barawa. Overview Baydhabo is the main hub of ...
, capital of Bay region, became an epicenter of the famine and was referred to at the time as the "City of Death"''.'' During the first year the vast majority of aid distributed to the needy was from local community initiatives. Village committees, often centered around
Mosque A mosque ( ), also called a masjid ( ), is a place of worship for Muslims. The term usually refers to a covered building, but can be any place where Salah, Islamic prayers are performed; such as an outdoor courtyard. Originally, mosques were si ...
s, established feeding centers and relief associations. A principle killer during the famine was epidemic diseases such as
measles Measles (probably from Middle Dutch or Middle High German ''masel(e)'', meaning "blemish, blood blister") is a highly contagious, Vaccine-preventable diseases, vaccine-preventable infectious disease caused by Measles morbillivirus, measles v ...
and
malaria Malaria is a Mosquito-borne disease, mosquito-borne infectious disease that affects vertebrates and ''Anopheles'' mosquitoes. Human malaria causes Signs and symptoms, symptoms that typically include fever, Fatigue (medical), fatigue, vomitin ...
. Journalist and aid worker
Michael Maren Michael Maren (born November 15, 1955) is an American journalist, screenwriter, and director. He spent seventeen years as a foreign correspondent based in Africa, writing for magazines like ''The Village Voice'', ''Newsweek'', ''The New Republ ...
challenged the United Nations' claim that 4.5 million people in Somalia were on the verge of starvation, and asserted that the figure was created with the intention of galvanizing an international response. According to Maren, this portrayal significantly overstated the crisis. His observations from the ground indicated that the famine was confined to specific areas, with the majority of Somalia's population remaining relatively unaffected. According to UNOSOM advisor John Drysdale, media portrayals of the crisis being nationwide were devoid of reality as only about 12% of the population had been affected by the famine.


International response

While many local Somali community initiatives had formed to provide famine relief, they were soon overwhelmed by the scale of starvation sweeping Bay region. Consequently an important factor in the suppression of starvation was large scale international food deliveries. According the independent Washington-based NGO ''Refugee Policy Group'', approximately 100,000 lives were saved as a result of international assistance during the famine. The
International Committee of the Red Cross The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is a humanitarian organization based in Geneva, Switzerland, and is a three-time Nobel Prize laureate. The organization has played an instrumental role in the development of rules of war and ...
(ICRC) distributed 75% of all food aid coming into Somalia,' and managed the majority of all US based aid. The organization operated 400 kitchens across the country. It is believed that at its peak the ICRC provided some form of relief to over 2 million Somalis, feeding 600,000. For its efforts the ICRC was nominated for the
Nobel Peace Prize The Nobel Peace Prize (Swedish language, Swedish and ) is one of the five Nobel Prizes established by the Will and testament, will of Sweden, Swedish industrialist, inventor, and armaments manufacturer Alfred Nobel, along with the prizes in Nobe ...
.'


Insecurity

In early 1992, as relief agencies initiated their operations, they encountered growing obstacles in delivering aid to the impacted inter-riverine region. The disintegration of Somali law enforcement paved the way for armed looters and criminals to steal food from storage sites and supply routes. In certain affected areas, armed banditry on these routes emerged as a significant concern. To safeguard their supplies, NGOs and relief agencies contracted Somali mercenaries or local fighters, often equipped with improvised combat vehicles, to escort their convoys. The term " Technicals" was coined by the accountants of these NGOs and relief agencies to categorize expenditures related to these unconventional security measures. Many of the thieves at Mogadishu's
sea A sea is a large body of salt water. There are particular seas and the sea. The sea commonly refers to the ocean, the interconnected body of seawaters that spans most of Earth. Particular seas are either marginal seas, second-order section ...
and
airport An airport is an aerodrome with extended facilities, mostly for commercial Aviation, air transport. They usually consist of a landing area, which comprises an aerially accessible open space including at least one operationally active surf ...
, the primary supply hub, were associated with the rebel
United Somali Congress The United Somali Congress (USC, ) was one of the major rebel organizations in Somalia. Formed in 1989, it played a leading role in the ouster of the government of Siad Barre in 1991. Following infighting, the USC later splintered into two win ...
forces of Ali Mahdi and Mohamed Farah Aidid, but effectively
demobilized Demobilization or demobilisation (see spelling differences) is the process of standing down a nation's armed forces from combat-ready status. This may be as a result of victory in war, or because a crisis has been peacefully resolved and militar ...
. With the looming threat of Barres troops reclaiming Mogadishu gone and the absence of financial support from militia leaders, both Aidid and Mahdi found themselves losing control over significant portions of their younger troops. Clan elders, too, had lost substantial influence over these forces. Consequently many turned to stealing food both as a means of sustenance and as an income source.


UNOSOM I (April 1992 – December 1992)

In response to the security situation,
UNOSOM I United Nations Operation in Somalia I (UNOSOM I) was the first part of a United Nations (UN) sponsored effort to provide, facilitate, and secure humanitarian relief in Somalia, as well as to monitor the first UN-brokered ceasefire of the Somal ...
was to established in April 1992 to help facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid for relief agencies. Mohamed Sahnoun, Special Representative of the Secretary-general for UNOSOM I, was tasked with forming and coordinating the UN's response. In May 1992 the first UN aid shipment arrived in Mogadishu.' Sahnoun noted that due to disorganization and "bureaucratic haggling", UNOSOM food assistance in Somalia was slow and inadequate. Consequently, numerous independent relief agencies ventured into famine affected zones to provide relief, as opposed to UN relief organizations who argued that insecurity precluded their presence. This was further compounded by serious organizational infighting between relief agencies in Somalia during the spring and summer of 1992. Specifically, the
United Nations Development Programme The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is a United Nations agency tasked with helping countries eliminate poverty and achieve sustainable economic growth and human development. The UNDP emphasizes on developing local capacity towar ...
(UNDP) displayed an overt unwillingness to collaborate with the
United Nations Children's Fund UNICEF ( ), originally the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, officially United Nations Children's Fund since 1953, is an agency of the United Nations responsible for providing humanitarian and developmental aid to childre ...
(UNICEF), and the level of inter-agency rivalry escalated to such an extent that they confiscated each other's photocopiers. Only at the end of August 1992 was the first meeting held to coordinate UN agencies in Somalia. Sahnoun later criticized aid agencies for overwhelmingly focusing aid on Mogadishu when starvation in the country was elsewhere.


Famine recedes

During the second half of 1992 the famine largely began to recede. Food prices across the country dropped dramatically from July to September 1992. The primary reason was that the lull in fighting in the south had allowed the first crop harvest in the Lower Shebelle region, which had proved to be surprisingly bountiful. In July 1992 the first UN troops landed in Somalia, seven Pakistanis under the command of Brigadier-General Imtiaz Shaheen. US aid airlifts to the
Red Cross The organized International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a Humanitarianism, humanitarian movement with approximately 16million volunteering, volunteers, members, and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ...
that began in August 1992 and gone on until December has been credited with saving around 40,000 lives.' On 12 August 1992, Aidid's
Somali National Alliance The Somali National Alliance (abbreviated SNA) was a major politico-military faction formed on 16 June 1992 by four different rebel groups that had been in opposition to the regime of former President Mohamed Siad Barre. The SNA was among the f ...
agreed to the deployment of 500 UN troops to ensure the security of aid workers, under the direction of Mohamed Sahnoun. In August 1992, the famine started catching the attention of international media. By the time most international media had taken notice in the famine, the peak in mortality had largely already passed, though pockets of starvation in
internally displaced people An internally displaced person (IDP) is someone who is forced to leave their home but who remains within their country's borders. They are often referred to as refugees, although they do not fall within the legal definitions of a refugee. I ...
around
Baidoa Baidoa (, Somali (Af-Maxaa): , ) is the largest city of the South West State of Somalia. Between 2002 and 2014, Baidoa was the capital of the South West State. In 2014, the capital was changed to Barawa. Overview Baydhabo is the main hub of ...
and Bardheere during September led to the apex of the famine with approximately 30,000 people dying that month. By October 1992, the situation in Baidoa had significantly improved without military intervention. Weekly death rates in the city had dropped from 1,700 in September to 300 by mid-November 1992. Bardheere experienced a large jump in deaths in mid-October after General Aidids forces pulled out and General Morgan occupied the city. According to Micheal Maren, "This temporary surge in death rates coincided with a huge international media attention that made all of Somalia seem like Bardera." In the view of John Drysdale, the UN secretary-general's claim that starvation was a direct result of continuing insecurity in Somalia during late 1992 was, "…dubious in the extreme". By November 1992, largely owing to the mediation led by UNOSOM I head Mohamed Sahnoun, aid was flowing through the Mogadishu port unimpeded, with theft and banditry on the routes to famine zones averaging around 20%. However, within the same month, Sahnoun was compelled to resign due to disagreements with UN Secretary-General Boutros Ghali. He was succeeded by Ismat Kittani, who then claimed that 80% of all aid was stolen. This inflated figure has been disputed by other UNOSOM personnel, aid workers in Somalia and academics.


UNITAF and UNOSOM II (December 1992 – March 1995)

By the time of the large scale military intervention in December 1992, the famine had peaked and was in decline, though
food insecurity Food security is the state of having reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, healthy food. The availability of food for people of any class, gender, ethnicity, or religion is another element of food protection. Similarly, househo ...
was still in an issue. By November 1992, the food situation in Somalia had already improved dramatically, and mortality rates had fallen sharply. Rony Brauman, who was the president of
Doctors Without Borders Doctor, Doctors, The Doctor or The Doctors may refer to: Titles and occupations * Physician, a medical practitioner * Doctor (title), an academic title for the holder of a doctoral-level degree ** Doctorate ** List of doctoral degrees awarded ...
in 1992, criticized Secretary-General Ghali for improperly using the organization's data on IDPs. He accused Ghali of extrapolating this data to the entire Somali population, thereby exaggerating the extent of the famine. Brauman observed that when the large international military coalition arrived in Somalia in December 1992, Somali-led convoys from Mogadishu, which were unprotected and delivered 400 tons of food, received minimal media coverage. In contrast, just 20 kilometers away, heavily armed US military aid convoys transporting only 20 tons of food were swarmed by hundreds of journalists and TV crews. The Somali convoys were observed to be markedly more cost-efficient in distributing Red Cross aid compared to the military counterparts. By early 1993 food prices had fallen well below production costs and farmers in the riverine areas reported grain stores full from previous unsold harvests. Despite the significant improvement in mortality due to the resumption of agricultural production and international aid, death rates in southern Somalia were still above normal. According to the Refugee Policy Group NGO, approximately 10,000 of the 100,000 saved by foreign aid had been rescued following the deployment of U.S. and international troops during December 1992's
Operation Restore Hope The Unified Task Force (UNITAF), also known as Operation Restore Hope, was a United States-led, United Nations-sanctioned multinational military force deployed to Somalia from 5 December 1992 to 4 May 1993. It was established to replace United ...
. A US government commissioned report aligns with these figures claiming an estimated 10,000-25,000 saved following the December 1992 intervention.'


Effect of looting

Estimates of the amount of food aid looted greatly vary, ranging from 10-80%. The
Red Cross The organized International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is a Humanitarianism, humanitarian movement with approximately 16million volunteering, volunteers, members, and staff worldwide. It was founded to protect human life and health, to ...
, the primary distributor of aid in Somalia, claimed that 10-15% of food aid deliveries were "unaccounted losses", which is often wholly conflated with
looting Looting is the act of stealing, or the taking of goods by force, typically in the midst of a military, political, or other social crisis, such as war, natural disasters (where law and civil enforcement are temporarily ineffective), or rioting. ...
. Professor Alex de Waal noted this was an optimistic assessment and that the number was likely higher, but asserted that much of what was counted in the figure was not hijackings or robberies. A significant portion of the food considered under the umbrella of an "unaccounted loss" was actually given up through agreements between the ICRC and its 24,000 employees/subcontractors in Somalia, who were usually paid in food. When food was stolen it was often through non-violent means such as the registration of "ghost kitchens" or "ghost villages" that did not exist. At its peak, the maximum figure of looting was somewhere under 50% of aid and according to the Red Cross, the majority eventually reached its intended destination. In October 1992
United Nations The United Nations (UN) is the Earth, global intergovernmental organization established by the signing of the Charter of the United Nations, UN Charter on 26 June 1945 with the stated purpose of maintaining international peace and internationa ...
Special Representative to Somalia Mohamed Sahnoun estimated that the majority of deliveries had around 15% looted, but that the number increased to as much as 40% of higher quality items. In an interview with American war correspondent Scott Peterson Sahnoun commented on looting by militias stating, "We see that there is a limit to the authority of Aidid and others, though they do not want to confess their inability to control, their powerlessness,"' Rony Brauman asserted that diversions averaged around 20 to 30%, and were often 'grossly exaggerated' Some UN World Food Programme and UNOSOM officials went as far to claim that 80% of all food aid shipments were being looted, a figure that has been heavily disputed.' This number was later used by President George H.W. Bush to justify the deployment of US troops to Somalia in December 1992. The estimate was directly disputed by Pakistani Brigadier-General Imtiaz Shaheen (head of the first UN troop contingent to Somalia) in an interview with British journalist Mark Huband as
Operation Restore Hope The Unified Task Force (UNITAF), also known as Operation Restore Hope, was a United States-led, United Nations-sanctioned multinational military force deployed to Somalia from 5 December 1992 to 4 May 1993. It was established to replace United ...
began in Mogadishu. General Shaheen claimed that the amount of aid being looted was being exaggerated in order justify expanding the scope of the operation and that estimates of 80% were completely fabricated''.''


Death toll

The figure of those who died during the 1992 Somalia famine is more difficult to estimate than with most famines, largely due to the highly uneven impact of starvation and mass displacement from the civil war. According to the
BBC The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is a British public service broadcaster headquartered at Broadcasting House in London, England. Originally established in 1922 as the British Broadcasting Company, it evolved into its current sta ...
220,000 Somalis died during the 1992 famine. This figure was reportedly surpassed by approximately 40,000 during the 2011 East Africa drought, which primarily affected the same region and communities as the 1992 crisis.


See also

*
1983–1985 famine in Ethiopia A widespread Famines in Ethiopia, famine affected Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. The worst famine to hit the country in a century, it affected 7.75 million people (out of Ethiopia's 38–40 million) or 1/5 of the population and left approximately ...
* 2011 East Africa Drought


References


Citations


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Further reading

* * * {{Somalia topics 1992 in Somalia 1990s in Mogadishu 1990s famines Famines in Somalia Somali Civil War