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Representativeness Heuristic
The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event being representational in character and essence of a known prototypical event. It is one of a group of heuristics (simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) proposed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s as "the degree to which n event(i) is similar in essential characteristics to its parent population, and (ii) reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated". The representativeness heuristic works by comparing an event to a prototype or stereotype that we already have in mind. For example, if we see a person who is dressed in eccentric clothes and reading a poetry book, we might be more likely to think that they are a poet than an accountant. This is because the person's appearance and behavior are more representative of the stereotype of a poet than an accountant. The representativeness heuristic can be a useful shor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Heuristics In Judgment And Decision-making
Heuristics (from Ancient Greek language, Ancient Greek wikt:εὑρίσκω, εὑρίσκω, ''heurískō'', "I find, discover") is the process by which humans use mental shortcuts to arrive at decisions. Heuristics are simple strategies that humans, animals, organizations, and even machines use to quickly form judgments, Decision-making, make decisions, and Problem solving, find solutions to complex problems. Often this involves focusing on the most relevant aspects of a problem or situation to formulate a solution. While heuristic processes are used to find the answers and solutions that are ''most'' likely to work or be correct, they are not always right or the most accurate. Judgments and decisions based on heuristics are simply good enough to satisfy a pressing need in situations of uncertainty, where information is incomplete. In that sense they can differ from answers given by logic and probability. The economist and cognitive psychologist Herbert A. Simon introduced the co ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Regression Fallacy
The regression (or regressive) fallacy is an informal fallacy. It assumes that something has returned to normal because of corrective actions taken while it was abnormal. This fails to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of the post hoc fallacy. Explanation Things like golf scores, the earth's temperature, and chronic back pain fluctuate naturally and usually regress toward the mean. The logical flaw is to make predictions that expect exceptional results to continue as if they were average (see Representativeness heuristic). People are most likely to take action when variance is at its peak. Then after results become more normal they believe that their action was the cause of the change when in fact it was not causal. This use of the word "regression" was coined by Sir Francis Galton in a study from 1885 called "Regression Toward Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature". He showed that the height of children from very short or very tall parents would move t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Extension Neglect
Extension, extend or extended may refer to: Mathematics Logic or set theory * Axiom of extensionality * Extensible cardinal * Extension (model theory) * Extension (proof theory) * Extension (predicate logic), the set of tuples of values that satisfy the predicate * Extension (semantics), the set of things to which a property applies * Extension (simplicial set) * Extension by definitions * Extensional definition, a definition that enumerates every individual a term applies to * Extensionality Other uses * Extension of a function, defined on a larger domain * Extension of a polyhedron, in geometry * Extension of a line segment (finite) into an infinite line (e.g., extended base) * Exterior algebra, Grassmann's theory of extension, in geometry * Field extension, in Galois theory * Group extension, in abstract algebra and homological algebra * Homotopy extension property, in topology * Kolmogorov extension theorem, in probability theory * Linear extension, in order theory * Sh ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
List Of Biases In Judgment And Decision-making
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm and/or rationality in judgment. They are often studied in psychology, sociology and behavioral economics. Although the reality of most of these biases is confirmed by reproducible research, there are often controversies about how to classify these biases or how to explain them. Several theoretical causes are known for some cognitive biases, which provides a classification of biases by their common generative mechanism (such as noisy information-processing). Gerd Gigerenzer has criticized the framing of cognitive biases as errors in judgment, and favors interpreting them as arising from rational deviations from logical thought. Explanations include information-processing rules (i.e., mental shortcuts), called ''heuristics'', that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. Biases have a variety of forms and appear as cognitive ("cold") bias, such as mental noise, or motivational ("hot") bias, such as when beli ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Availability Heuristic
The availability heuristic, also known as availability bias, is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. This heuristic, operating on the notion that, if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions not as readily recalled, is inherently biased toward recently acquired information. The mental availability of an action's consequences is positively related to those consequences' perceived magnitude. In other words, the easier it is to recall the consequences of something, the greater those consequences are often perceived to be. Most notably, people often rely on the content of their recall if its implications are not called into question by the difficulty they have in recalling it. Overview and history In the late 1960s and early 1970s, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman began work on a series of papers examining ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Attribute Substitution
Attribute substitution is a psychological process thought to underlie a number of cognitive biases and perceptual illusions. It occurs when an individual has to make a judgment (of a ''target attribute'') that is computationally complex, and instead substitutes a more easily calculated '' heuristic attribute''. This substitution is thought of as taking place in the automatic ''intuitive'' judgment system, rather than the more self-aware ''reflective'' system. Hence, when someone tries to answer a difficult question, they may actually answer a related but different question, without realizing that a substitution has taken place. This explains why individuals can be unaware of their own biases, and why biases persist even when the subject is made aware of them. It also explains why human judgments often fail to show regression toward the mean. The theory of attribute substitution unifies a number of separate explanations of reasoning errors in terms of cognitive heuristics. In tu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Affect Heuristic
The affect heuristic is a heuristic, a mental shortcut that allows people to make decisions and solve problems quickly and efficiently, in which current emotion—fear, pleasure, surprise, etc.—influences decisions. In other words, it is a type of heuristic in which emotional response, or " affect" in psychological terms, plays a lead role. It is a subconscious process that shortens the decision-making process and allows people to function without having to complete an extensive search for information. It is shorter in duration than a mood, occurring rapidly and involuntarily in response to a stimulus. Reading the words "lung cancer" usually generates an affect of dread, while reading the words "mother's love" usually generates a feeling of affection and comfort. The affect heuristic is typically used while judging the risks and benefits of something, depending on the positive or negative feelings that people associate with a stimulus. It is the equivalent of "going with ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Pocket Protector
A pocket protector is a sheath designed to hold writing instruments and other small implements in a shirt's breast pocket, protecting it from tearing or staining. It may be used to carry pens, pencils, screwdrivers, small slide rules, and other small items. A flap over the outside of the pocket helps to secure the pocket protector. Pocket protectors were originally made of polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Invention The pocket protector was invented during World War II by Hurley Smith while he was working in Buffalo, New York. He filed to patent the device on June 3, 1943, and he received patent number on March 18, 1947. A competing claim for the invention came from Long Island plastics magnate Gerson Strassberg around 1952. Strassberg was working on plastic sleeves for bankbooks. One day, he placed one that he was working on into his shirt pocket while he took a phone call. When he noticed it there, he realized it would make a great product. Use Pocket protectors imprinted with logo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Logical Conjunction
In logic, mathematics and linguistics, ''and'' (\wedge) is the Truth function, truth-functional operator of conjunction or logical conjunction. The logical connective of this operator is typically represented as \wedge or \& or K (prefix) or \times or \cdot in which \wedge is the most modern and widely used. The ''and'' of a set of operands is true if and only if ''all'' of its operands are true, i.e., A \land B is true if and only if A is true and B is true. An operand of a conjunction is a conjunct. Beyond logic, the term "conjunction" also refers to similar concepts in other fields: * In natural language, the denotation of expressions such as English language, English "Conjunction (grammar), and"; * In programming languages, the Short-circuit evaluation, short-circuit and Control flow, control structure; * In set theory, Intersection (set theory), intersection. * In Lattice (order), lattice theory, logical conjunction (Infimum and supremum, greatest lower bound). Notati ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Maya Bar-Hillel
Maya Bar-Hillel (; born 1943) is a professor emeritus of psychology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Known for her work on inaccuracies in human reasoning about probability, she has also studied decision theory in connection with Newcomb's paradox, investigated how gender stereotyping can block human problem-solving, and worked with Dror Bar-Natan, Gil Kalai, and Brendan McKay (mathematician), Brendan McKay to debunk the Bible code. Education and career Bar-Hillel studied psychology with Amos Tversky at the Hebrew University, where she earned bachelor's and master's degrees in mathematics and a Ph.D. in psychology. Her 1975 doctoral dissertation, ''The Base-Rate Fallacy in Subjective Judgments of Probability'', introduced the concept of the base rate fallacy in probabilistic reasoning. At the Hebrew University, she was the director of the Center for the Study of Rationality from 2001 to 2005. Family Bar-Hillel is the daughter of Israeli philosopher and linguist Yehoshua Bar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Base Rate
In probability and statistics, the base rate (also known as prior probabilities) is the class of probabilities unconditional on "featural evidence" ( likelihoods). It is the proportion of individuals in a population who have a certain characteristic or trait. For example, if 1% of the population were medical professionals, and remaining 99% were ''not'' medical professionals, then the base rate of medical professionals is 1%. The method for integrating base rates and featural evidence is given by Bayes' rule. In the sciences, including medicine, the base rate is critical for comparison. In medicine a treatment's effectiveness is clear when the base rate is available. For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule, after Thomas Bayes) gives a mathematical rule for inverting Conditional probability, conditional probabilities, allowing one to find the probability of a cause given its effect. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to someone of a known age to be assessed more accurately by conditioning it relative to their age, rather than assuming that the person is typical of the population as a whole. Based on Bayes' law, both the prevalence of a disease in a given population and the error rate of an infectious disease test must be taken into account to evaluate the meaning of a positive test result and avoid the ''base-rate fallacy''. One of Bayes' theorem's many applications is Bayesian inference, an approach to statistical inference, where it is used to invert the probability of Realization (probability), observations given a model configuration (i.e., th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
