De Finetti Theorem
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De Finetti Theorem
In probability theory, de Finetti's theorem states that exchangeable observations are conditionally independent relative to some latent variable. An epistemic probability distribution could then be assigned to this variable. It is named in honor of Bruno de Finetti, and one of its uses is in providing a pragmatic approach to de Finetti's well-known dictum "Probability does not exist". For the special case of an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli random variables it states that such a sequence is a "mixture" of sequences of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Bernoulli random variables. A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if the joint distribution of the sequence is unchanged by any permutation of a finite set of indices. In general, while the variables of the exchangeable sequence are not ''themselves'' independent, only exchangeable, there is an ''underlying'' family of i.i.d. random variables. That is, there are underlying, generally unobserv ...
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Probability Theory
Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms of probability, axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure (mathematics), measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event (probability theory), event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of determinism, non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured Quantity, quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is no ...
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Conditional Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the conditional probability distribution is a probability distribution that describes the probability of an outcome given the occurrence of a particular event. Given two jointly distributed random variables X and Y, the conditional probability distribution of Y given X is the probability distribution of Y when X is known to be a particular value; in some cases the conditional probabilities may be expressed as functions containing the unspecified value x of X as a parameter. When both X and Y are categorical variables, a conditional probability table is typically used to represent the conditional probability. The conditional distribution contrasts with the marginal distribution of a random variable, which is its distribution without reference to the value of the other variable. If the conditional distribution of Y given X is a continuous distribution, then its probability density function is known as the conditional density function. The prop ...
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Category Theory
Category theory is a general theory of mathematical structures and their relations. It was introduced by Samuel Eilenberg and Saunders Mac Lane in the middle of the 20th century in their foundational work on algebraic topology. Category theory is used in most areas of mathematics. In particular, many constructions of new mathematical objects from previous ones that appear similarly in several contexts are conveniently expressed and unified in terms of categories. Examples include quotient space (other), quotient spaces, direct products, completion, and duality (mathematics), duality. Many areas of computer science also rely on category theory, such as functional programming and Semantics (computer science), semantics. A category (mathematics), category is formed by two sorts of mathematical object, objects: the object (category theory), objects of the category, and the morphisms, which relate two objects called the ''source'' and the ''target'' of the morphism. Metapho ...
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Markov Kernel
In probability theory, a Markov kernel (also known as a stochastic kernel or probability kernel) is a map that in the general theory of Markov processes plays the role that the transition matrix does in the theory of Markov processes with a finite state space. Formal definition Let (X,\mathcal A) and (Y,\mathcal B) be measurable spaces. A ''Markov kernel'' with source (X,\mathcal A) and target (Y,\mathcal B), sometimes written as \kappa:(X,\mathcal)\to(Y,\mathcal), is a function \kappa : \mathcal B \times X \to ,1/math> with the following properties: # For every (fixed) B_0 \in \mathcal B, the map x \mapsto \kappa(B_0, x) is \mathcal A- measurable # For every (fixed) x_0 \in X, the map B \mapsto \kappa(B, x_0) is a probability measure on (Y, \mathcal B) In other words it associates to each point x \in X a probability measure \kappa(dy, x): B \mapsto \kappa(B, x) on (Y,\mathcal B) such that, for every measurable set B\in\mathcal B, the map x\mapsto \kappa(B, x) is measur ...
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Permutation
In mathematics, a permutation of a set can mean one of two different things: * an arrangement of its members in a sequence or linear order, or * the act or process of changing the linear order of an ordered set. An example of the first meaning is the six permutations (orderings) of the set : written as tuples, they are (1, 2, 3), (1, 3, 2), (2, 1, 3), (2, 3, 1), (3, 1, 2), and (3, 2, 1). Anagrams of a word whose letters are all different are also permutations: the letters are already ordered in the original word, and the anagram reorders them. The study of permutations of finite sets is an important topic in combinatorics and group theory. Permutations are used in almost every branch of mathematics and in many other fields of science. In computer science, they are used for analyzing sorting algorithms; in quantum physics, for describing states of particles; and in biology, for describing RNA sequences. The number of permutations of distinct objects is  factorial, us ...
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Product Sigma-algebra
Product may refer to: Business * Product (business), an item that can be offered to a market to satisfy the desire or need of a customer. * Product (project management), a deliverable or set of deliverables that contribute to a business solution Mathematics * Product (mathematics) Algebra * Direct product Set theory * Cartesian product of sets Group theory * Direct product of groups * Semidirect product * Product of group subsets * Wreath product * Free product * Zappa–Szép product (or knit product), a generalization of the direct and semidirect products Ring theory * Product of rings * Ideal operations, for product of ideals Linear algebra * Scalar multiplication * Matrix multiplication * Inner product, on an inner product space * Exterior product or wedge product * Multiplication of vectors: ** Dot product ** Cross product ** Seven-dimensional cross product ** Triple product, in vector calculus * Tensor product Topology * Product topology Algebraic topology * Cap ...
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Standard Borel Space
In mathematics, a standard Borel space is the Borel space associated with a Polish space. Except in the case of discrete Polish spaces, the standard Borel space is unique, up to isomorphism of measurable spaces. Formal definition A measurable space (X, \Sigma) is said to be "standard Borel" if there exists a metric on X that makes it a complete separable metric space in such a way that \Sigma is then the Borel σ-algebra. Standard Borel spaces have several useful properties that do not hold for general measurable spaces. Properties * If (X, \Sigma) and (Y, T) are standard Borel then any bijective measurable mapping f : (X, \Sigma) \to (Y, \Tau) is an isomorphism (that is, the inverse mapping is also measurable). This follows from Souslin's theorem, as a set that is both analytic and coanalytic is necessarily Borel. * If (X, \Sigma) and (Y, T) are standard Borel spaces and f : X \to Y then f is measurable if and only if the graph of f is Borel. * The product and direct u ...
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Category Of Markov Kernels
In mathematics, the category of Markov kernels, often denoted Stoch, is the category whose objects are measurable spaces and whose morphisms are Markov kernels. It is analogous to the category of sets and functions, but where the arrows can be interpreted as being stochastic. Several variants of this category are used in the literature. For example, one can use subprobability kernels instead of probability kernels, or more general s-finite kernels. Also, one can take as morphisms equivalence classes of Markov kernels under almost sure equality; see below. Definition Recall that a Markov kernel between measurable spaces (X,\mathcal) and (Y,\mathcal) is an assignment k:X\times\mathcal\to\mathbb which is measurable as a function on X and which is a probability measure on \mathcal. We denote its values by k(B, x) for x\in X and B\in\mathcal, which suggests an interpretation as conditional probability. The category Stoch has: * As objects, measurable spaces; * As morphisms, ...
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Limit (category Theory)
In category theory, a branch of mathematics, the abstract notion of a limit captures the essential properties of universal constructions such as product (category theory), products, pullback (category theory), pullbacks and inverse limits. The duality (category theory), dual notion of a colimit generalizes constructions such as disjoint unions, direct sums, coproducts, pushout (category theory), pushouts and direct limits. Limits and colimits, like the strongly related notions of universal property, universal properties and adjoint functors, exist at a high level of abstraction. In order to understand them, it is helpful to first study the specific examples these concepts are meant to generalize. Definition Limits and colimits in a category (mathematics), category C are defined by means of diagrams in C. Formally, a diagram (category theory), diagram of shape J in C is a functor from J to C: :F:J\to C. The category J is thought of as an index category, and the diagram F is tho ...
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Law Of Large Numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law of large numbers states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the sample mean converges to the true mean. The law of large numbers is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. Importantly, the law applies (as the name indicates) only when a ''large number'' of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a stre ...
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Correlation
In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are '' linearly'' related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the demand curve. Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather. In this example, there is a causal relationship, because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling. However, in g ...
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Exchangeable Random Variables
In statistics, an exchangeable sequence of random variables (also sometimes interchangeable) is a sequence ''X''1, ''X''2, ''X''3, ... (which may be finitely or infinitely long) whose joint probability distribution does not change when the positions in the sequence in which finitely many of them appear are altered. In other words, the joint distribution is invariant to finite permutation. Thus, for example the sequences : X_1, X_2, X_3, X_4, X_5, X_6 \quad \text \quad X_3, X_6, X_1, X_5, X_2, X_4 both have the same joint probability distribution. It is closely related to the use of independent and identically distributed random variables in statistical models. Exchangeable sequences of random variables arise in cases of simple random sampling. Definition Formally, an exchangeable sequence of random variables is a finite or infinite sequence ''X''1, ''X''2, ''X''3, ... of random variables such that for any finite permutation σ of the indices 1, 2 ...
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