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Cost Escalation
Cost escalation can be defined as changes in the cost or price of specific goods or services in a given economy over a period. This is similar to the concepts of inflation and deflation except that escalation is specific to an item or class of items (not as general in nature), it is often not primarily driven by changes in the money supply, and it tends to be less sustained. While escalation includes general inflation related to the money supply, it is also driven by changes in technology, practices, and particularly supply-demand imbalances that are specific to a good or service in a given economy. For example, while general inflation (e.g., consumer price index) in the US was less than 5% in the 2003-2007 time period, steel prices increased (escalated) by over 50% because of supply-demand imbalance. Cost escalation may contribute to a project cost overrun but it is not synonymous with it. Over long periods of time, as market supply and demand imbalances are corrected, escalation wi ...
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Inflation
In economics, inflation is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money. This increase is measured using a price index, typically a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. Changes in inflation are widely attributed to fluctuations in Real versus nominal value (economics), real demand for goods and services (also known as demand shocks, including changes in fiscal policy, fiscal or monetary policy), changes in available supplies such as during energy crisis, energy crises (also known as supply shocks), or changes in inflation expectations, which may be self-fulfilling. Moderat ...
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Deflation
In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0% and becomes negative. While inflation reduces the value of currency over time, deflation increases it. This allows more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation is distinct from '' disinflation'', a slowdown in the inflation rate; i.e., when inflation declines to a lower rate but is still positive. Economists generally believe that a sudden deflationary shock is a problem in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, especially if the deflation is unexpected. Deflation may also aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral . Some economists argue that prolonged deflationary periods are related to the underlying technological progress in an economy, because as productivity increases ( TFP), the cost of goods decreases. Deflation usually happens when supply is hi ...
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Consumer Price Index
A consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. It is calculated as the weighted average price of a market basket of Goods, consumer goods and Service (economics), services. Changes in CPI track changes in prices over time. The items in the basket are updated periodically to reflect changes in consumer spending habits. The prices of the goods and services in the basket are collected (often monthly) from a sample of retail and service establishments. The prices are then adjusted for changes in quality or features. Changes in the CPI can be used to track inflation over time and to compare inflation rates between different countries. While the CPI is not a perfect measure of inflation or the cost of living, it is a useful tool for tracking these economic indicators. It is one of several Price index, price indices calculated by many national statistical agencies. Overview A CPI is ...
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Cost Overrun
A cost overrun, also known as a cost increase or budget overrun, involves unexpected incurred costs. When these costs are in excess of budgeted amounts due to a value engineering underestimation of the actual cost during budgeting, they are known by these terms. Cost overruns are common in infrastructure, building, and technology projects. For IT projects, a 2004 industry study by the Standish Group found an average cost overrun of 43 percent; 71 percent of projects came in over budget, exceeded time estimates, and had estimated too narrow a scope; and total waste was estimated at $55 billion per year in the US alone. Many major construction projects have incurred cost overruns; cost estimates used to decide whether important transportation infrastructure should be built can mislead grossly and systematically. Cost overrun is distinguished from cost escalation, which is an ''anticipated'' growth in a budgeted cost due to factors such as inflation. Causes Recent works by Ahi ...
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Price Index
A price index (''plural'': "price indices" or "price indexes") is a normalized average (typically a weighted average) of price relatives for a given class of goods or services in a specific region over a defined time period. It is a statistic designed to measure how these price relatives, as a whole, differ between time periods or geographical locations, often expressed relative to a base period set at 100. Price indices serve multiple purposes. Broad indices, like the Consumer price index, reflect the economy’s general price level or cost of living, while narrower ones, such as the Producer price index, assist producers with pricing and business planning. They can also guide investment decisions by tracking price trends.   Types of price indices Some widely recognized price indices include: * Consumer price index – Measures retail price changes for consumer goods and services. * Producer price index – Tracks wholesale price changes for producers. * Wholesal ...
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Econometrics
Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. M. Hashem Pesaran (1987). "Econometrics", '' The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics'', v. 2, p. 8 p. 8–22 Reprinted in J. Eatwell ''et al.'', eds. (1990). ''Econometrics: The New Palgrave''p. 1 p. 1–34Abstract ( 2008 revision by J. Geweke, J. Horowitz, and H. P. Pesaran). More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference." An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships." Jan Tinbergen is one of the two founding fathers of econometrics. The other, Ragnar Frisch, also coined the term in the sense in which it is used today. A basic tool for econometrics is the multiple linear regression model. ''Econome ...
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Bureau Of Labor Statistics
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the government of the United States, U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics, labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the Federal Statistical System of the United States, U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the United States Congress, U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the United States Department of Labor, and conducts research measuring the income levels families need to maintain a satisfactory quality of life. BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today's rapidly changing economic conditions, accur ...
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Cost Engineering
Cost engineering is "the engineering practice devoted to the management of project cost, involving such activities as estimating, cost control, cost forecasting, investment appraisal and risk analysis". "Cost Engineers budget, plan and monitor investment projects. They seek the optimum balance between cost, quality and time requirements." Skills and knowledge of cost engineers are similar to those of quantity surveyors. In many industries, cost engineering is synonymous with project controls. As the title "engineer" has legal requirements in many jurisdictions (e.g. Canada, Texas), the cost engineering discipline is often renamed to project controls. A cost engineer is "an engineer whose judgment and experience are utilized in the application of scientific principles and techniques to problems of estimation; cost control; business planning and management science; profitability analysis; project management; and planning and scheduling". Overview One key objective of cost en ...
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Project Management
Project management is the process of supervising the work of a Project team, team to achieve all project goals within the given constraints. This information is usually described in project initiation documentation, project documentation, created at the beginning of the development process. The primary constraints are Scope (project management), scope, time and budget. The secondary challenge is to operations research, optimize the Resource allocation, allocation of necessary inputs and apply them to meet predefined objectives. The objective of project management is to produce a complete project which complies with the client's objectives. In many cases, the objective of project management is also to shape or reform the client's brief to feasibly address the client's objectives. Once the client's objectives are established, they should influence all decisions made by other people involved in the project– for example, project managers, designers, contractors and subcontractors ...
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Cost Contingency
When estimating the cost for a project, product or other item or investment, there is always uncertainty as to the precise content of all items in the estimate, how work will be performed, what work conditions will be like when the project is executed and so on. These uncertainties are risks to the project. Some refer to these risks as "known-unknowns" because the estimator is aware of them, and based on past experience, can even estimate their probable costs. The estimated costs of the known-unknowns is referred to by cost estimators as cost contingency. Contingency "refers to costs that will probably occur based on past experience, but with some uncertainty regarding the amount. The term is not used as a catchall to cover ignorance. It is poor engineering and poor philosophy to make second-rate estimates and then try to satisfy them by using a large contingency account. The contingency allowance is designed to cover items of cost which are not known exactly at the time of the estim ...
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Chemical Plant Cost Indexes
Chemical plant cost indexes are dimensionless numbers employed to updating capital cost required to erect a chemical plant from a past date to a later time, following changes in the value of money due to inflation and deflation. Since, at any given time, the number of chemical plants is insufficient to use in a preliminary or predesign estimate, cost indexes are handy for a series of management purposes, like long-range planning, budgeting and escalating or de-escalating contract costs. A cost index is the ratio of the actual price in a time period compared to that in a selected base period (a defined point in time or the average price in a certain year), multiplied by 100. Raw materials, products and energy prices, labor and construction costs change at different rates, and plant construction cost indexes are actually a composite, able to compare generic chemical plants capital costs. Calculations methods Although the available indexes are compiled in several ways, they are defi ...
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