Super Bowl Indicator
The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978 when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market). As of January 2022, the predictor had been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate. Without retrospective predictions, i.e. ''after'' its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%. Data See also * January barometer *Calendar effect A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is the difference in behavior of a system that is related to th ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Spurious Correlation
In statistics, a spurious relationship or spurious correlation is a mathematical relationship in which two or more events or variables are associated but '' not'' causally related, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor (referred to as a "common response variable", "confounding factor", or " lurking variable"). Examples An example of a spurious relationship can be found in the time-series literature, where a spurious regression is one that provides misleading statistical evidence of a linear relationship between independent non-stationary variables. In fact, the non-stationarity may be due to the presence of a unit root in both variables. In particular, any two nominal economic variables are likely to be correlated with each other, even when neither has a causal effect on the other, because each equals a real variable times the price level, and the common presence of the price level in the two data series imparts correlation to them. (See ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Stock Market
A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include ''securities'' listed on a public stock exchange as well as stock that is only traded privately, such as shares of private companies that are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Investments are usually made with an investment strategy in mind. Size of the market The total market capitalization of all publicly traded stocks worldwide rose from US$2.5 trillion in 1980 to US$111 trillion by the end of 2023. , there are 60 stock exchanges in the world. Of these, there are 16 exchanges with a market capitalization of $1 trillion or more, and they account for 87% of global market capitalization. Apart from the Australian Securities Exchange, these 16 exchanges are all in North America, Europe, or Asia. By country, the largest stock markets as of January 2022 are in t ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Super Bowl
The Super Bowl is the annual History of the NFL championship, league championship game of the National Football League (NFL) of the United States. It has served as the final game of every NFL season since 1966 NFL season, 1966 (with the exception of the Pro Bowl between the 1967 and 2009 seasons), superseding the History of the National Football League championship, NFL Championship Game. Since Super Bowl LVI, 2022, the game has been played on the second Sunday in February. Prior Super Bowls were played on Sundays in early to mid-January from 1967 to 1978, late January from 1979 to 2003, and the first Sunday of February from 2004 to 2021. Winning teams are awarded the Vince Lombardi Trophy, named after the legendary Vince Lombardi, Packers coach who won the first two Super Bowls. Because the NFL restricts the use of its "Super Bowl" trademark, it is frequently referred to as the "big game" or other generic terms by non-sponsoring corporations. The day the game is held is common ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Leonard Koppett
Leonard J. Koppett (born Leonid Kopeliovitch; September 15, 1923 – June 22, 2003) was a Soviet-born American sportswriter and author who wrote 17 books on sports, mainly baseball. Born in Moscow as Leonid Kopeliovitch, Koppett moved with his family from the Soviet Union to the United States when he was five years old. They lived in The Bronx, New York, a block away from Yankee Stadium. Koppett served in the United States Army before graduating from Columbia University in 1946. He then worked as a reporter and columnist for the ''New York Herald Tribune'', the ''New York Post'', ''The New York Times'', the ''Peninsula Times Tribune'', and ''The Sporting News'', and authored 22 books on sports. He also published a number of magazine articles. Best known were his works on baseball: ''Concise History of Major League Baseball'' (1998, updated through 2004) and ''The Thinking Fan's Guide to Baseball'' (originally titled ''A Thinking Man's Guide to Baseball'', 1967, renamed for gend ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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American Football Conference
The American Football Conference (AFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest level of professional American football in the United States. The AFC and its counterpart, the National Football Conference (NFC), each have 16 teams organized into four divisions. Both conferences were created as part of the 1970 merger between the National Football League, and the American Football League (AFL). All ten of the AFL teams, and three NFL teams, became members of the new AFC, with the remaining thirteen NFL teams forming the NFC. A series of league expansions and division realignments have occurred since the merger, thus making the current total of 16 teams in each conference. The current AFC champions are the Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 season's AFC Championship Game for their fifth conference championship and went on to lose Super Bowl LIX against the Philadelphia Eagles. Teams Like the NFC, the conferenc ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Bear Market
A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time. A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. This fact makes market timing inherently a game of educated guessing rather than a certainty. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend. Market terminology The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market tr ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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National Football Conference
The National Football Conference (NFC) is a conference of the National Football League (NFL), the highest level of professional American football in the United States. The NFC and its counterpart, the American Football Conference (AFC), each have 16 teams organized into four divisions. Both conferences were created as part of the 1970 NFL merger with the rival American Football League (AFL). All ten of the former AFL teams and three NFL teams formed the AFC while the remaining thirteen NFL clubs formed the NFC. A series of league expansions and division realignments have occurred since the merger, thus making a total of 16 clubs in each conference. The defending champions of the NFC are the Philadelphia Eagles, who defeated the Washington Commanders in the 2024 season's NFC Championship Game for their fifth conference championship in the team's history. Teams Since 2002, like the AFC, the NFC has 16 teams that organized into four divisions each with four teams: East, North, ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Bull Market
A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time. A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. This fact makes market timing inherently a game of educated guessing rather than a certainty. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend. Market terminology The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market tr ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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January Barometer
The January barometer ("As goes January, so goes the year") is the hypothesis that stock market performance in January (particularly in the U.S.) predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. The January barometer was first mentioned by Yale Hirsch in 1972. Historically, if the S&P 500 goes up in January, the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January, then it will fall for the rest of the year. From 1950 till 1984 both positive and negative prediction had a certainty of about 70% for positive outcomes and 90% for negative ones respectively with 75% in total. Between 1985 and 2010, however, the negative predictive power had been reduced to 50%, or in other words, no predictive power at all.Christian FeldeA deep dive into the January Barometer/ref> See also *January effect * Super Bowl indicator * Cabañuelas, analyzing the weather of Janua ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |
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Calendar Effect
A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is the difference in behavior of a system that is related to the calendar such as the day of the week, time of the month, time of the year, time within the U.S. presidential cycle, or decade within the century. It is most often used in a financial context to describe a market anomaly; traders may use market timing to profit from moves in stock prices based on the calendar. Examples Stock market * Sell in May * January effect * January barometer * Mark Twain effect * The Congressional Effect * Santa Claus rally * Super Bowl indicator * United States presidential election cycle * Weekend effect: Over the very long run, on average, weekend returns in US stock prices have tended to be negative. * Midweek effect: In the US, stock returns from between the Monday close and the Wednesday close have tended to grow at a near-constant rate since the 1880s. Other * Grand supercycle * Kondratiev wave * July effect - risk of medical errors and surgical c ... [...More Info...]       [...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]   |