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Outline Of Futures Studies
The following Outline (list), outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies: Futures studies (also called futurology) – study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. History studies the past, futures studies considers the future. Futurology (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. General concepts * Accelerating change * Calculating demand forecast accuracy * Clarke's three laws * Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment * Causal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Harlan Cleveland
Harlan Cleveland (January 19, 1918 – May 30, 2008) was an American diplomat, educator, and author. He served as Lyndon B. Johnson's U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 1965 to 1969, and earlier as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs from 1961 to 1965. He was president of the University of Hawaii from 1969 to 1974, president of the World Academy of Art and Science in the 1990s, and Founding dean of the University of Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs. Cleveland also served as dean of the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University from 1956 to 1961. Early life and education He was born on January 19, 1918 in New York City, to Stanley Matthews Cleveland and Marian Van Buren. His siblings were Harold van Buren Cleveland (who became an economist), Anne Cleveland White (who became an artist), and Stanley Cleveland (who became a diplomat). Cleveland's father died when he was eight years old, after wh ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Kardashev Scale
The Kardashev scale () is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technology, technological advancement based on the amount of energy it is capable of harnessing and using. The measure was proposed by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in 1964, and was named after him. Kardashev first outlined his scale in a paper presented at the 1964 conference that communicated findings on BS-29-76, Byurakan Conference in the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, Armenian SSR, which he initiated, a scientific meeting that reviewed the Soviet radio astronomy space listening program. The paper was titled "" ("Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations"). Starting from a functional definition of civilization, based on the immutability of physical laws and using human civilization as a model for extrapolation, Kardashev's initial model was developed. He proposed a classification of civilizations into three types, based on the axiom of exponential growth: *A Planetary civil ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Interdependence
Systems theory is the transdisciplinary study of systems, i.e. cohesive groups of interrelated, interdependent components that can be natural or artificial. Every system has causal boundaries, is influenced by its context, defined by its structure, function and role, and expressed through its relations with other systems. A system is "more than the sum of its parts" when it expresses synergy or emergent behavior. Changing one component of a system may affect other components or the whole system. It may be possible to predict these changes in patterns of behavior. For systems that learn and adapt, the growth and the degree of adaptation depend upon how well the system is engaged with its environment and other contexts influencing its organization. Some systems support other systems, maintaining the other system to prevent failure. The goals of systems theory are to model a system's dynamics, constraints, conditions, and relations; and to elucidate principles (such as purpose, mea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hubbert Peak Theory
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil. Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates, and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion. The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite; therefore, the rate of discovery, which initially increases quickly, must reach a maximum and then decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19–20, 2 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Global Consciousness Project
The Global Consciousness Project (GCP, also called the EGG Project) is a parapsychology experiment begun in 1998 as an attempt to detect possible interactions of "global consciousness" with physical systems. The project monitors a geographically distributed network of hardware random number generators in a bid to identify anomalous outputs that correlate with widespread emotional responses to sets of world events, or periods of focused attention by large numbers of people. The GCP is privately funded through the Institute of Noetic Sciences and describes itself as an international collaboration of about 100 research scientists and engineers. Skeptics such as Robert T. Carroll, Claus Larsen, and others have questioned the methodology of the Global Consciousness Project, particularly how the data are selected and interpreted, saying the data anomalies reported by the project are the result of "pattern matching" and selection bias which ultimately fail to support a belief in psi or ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Future Energy Development
The future is the time after the past and present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected timeline that is anticipated to occur. In special relativity, the future is considered absolute future, or the future light cone. In the philosophy of time, presentism is the belief that only the present exists and the future and the past are unreal. Religions consider the future when they address issues such as karma, life after death, and eschatologies that study what the end of time and the end of the world will be. Religious figures such as prophets and diviners have claimed to see int ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Future
The future is the time after the past and present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently existence, exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. In the Western culture, Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected timeline that is anticipated to occur. In special relativity, the future is considered absolute future, or the future light cone. In the philosophy of time, Philosophical presentism, presentism is the belief that only the present existence, exists and the future and the past are reality, unreal. Religions consider the future when they address issues such as karma, afterlife, life after death, and eschatology, eschatologies that study what the end of time and the end of the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Foresight (futures Studies)
Foresight most commonly refers to: * Foresight (psychology), the ability to predict or plan for the future * Mental time travel or episodic foresight, the ability to reconstruct events from the past and imagine future events * Precognition, a claimed psychic ability to see events in the future Foresight or fore sight may also refer to: * ''Foresight'' (forecasting journal), a publication on business forecasting, by the International Institute of Forecasters * Foresight (futures studies), European planning mechanism for public policy * ''Foresight'' (futures studies journal), an international bimonthly journal founded 1999 * Fore sight (surveying), short for "fore sight reading", a reading from a leveling staff when using a surveyor's level * Foresight Institute, an American nonprofit organization studying molecular nanotechnology * Foresight Linux, computer operating system * Foresight magazine, a Japanese magazine published monthly by Shinchosha * '' Chanting the Light of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might Estimation, estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional data, cross-sectional or longitudinal study, longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Failure Mode And Effects Analysis
Failure is the social concept of not meeting a desirable or intended Goal, objective, and is usually viewed as the opposite of success. The criteria for failure depends on context, and may be relative to a particular observer or belief system. One person might consider a failure what another person considers a success, particularly in cases of direct competition or a zero-sum game. Similarly, the degree of success or failure in a situation may be differently viewed by distinct observers or participants, such that a situation that one considers to be a failure, another might consider to be a success, a qualified success or a neutral situation. It may also be difficult or impossible to ascertain whether a situation meets criteria for failure or success due to ambiguous or ill-defined definition of those criteria. Finding useful and effective criteria or heuristics to judge the success or failure of a situation may itself be a significant task. Sociology Cultural historian Sco ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Eschatology
Eschatology (; ) concerns expectations of the end of Contemporary era, present age, human history, or the world itself. The end of the world or end times is predicted by several world religions (both Abrahamic religions, Abrahamic and non-Abrahamic), which teach that negative world events will reach a climax. Briefly: the eschaton is the all-inclusive term evoking this predicted climax of a particular theological or political worldview. The scope of expected consequence is global and not local. Eschatology denotes the theory, discussion, techniques, behaviors and orientation toward the eschaton. Theories of afterlife may also be a dimension of eschatology in certain contexts—in these contexts the afterlife of an individual is a kind of hologram or particular microcosm of the overall eschaton. The Eschaton is, furthermore, related to telos: a Greek word simultaneously denoting purpose, climax and end (ie. death, terminus etc. but also perfection, completion etc.). Eschaton is t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
