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Kermack–McKendrick Theory
Kermack–McKendrick theory is a hypothesis that predicts the number and distribution of cases of an infectious disease as it is transmitted through a population over time. Building on the research of Ronald Ross and Hilda Hudson, A. G. McKendrick and W. O. Kermack published their theory in a set of three articles from 1927, 1932, and 1933. While Kermack–McKendrick theory was indeed the source of SIR models and their relatives, Kermack and McKendrick were thinking of a more subtle and empirically useful problem than the simple compartmental models discussed here. The text is somewhat difficult to read, compared to modern papers, but the important feature is it was a model where the age-of-infection affected the transmission and removal rates. Because of their seminal importance to the field of theoretical epidemiology, these articles were republished in the ''Bulletin of Mathematical Biology'' in 1991. Epidemic model (1927) In its initial form, Kermack–McKendrick theory ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hypothesis
A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can testable, test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used interchangeably, a scientific hypothesis is not the same as a scientific theory. A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought. A different meaning of the term ''hypothesis'' is used in formal logic, to denote the antecedent (logic), antecedent of a proposition; thus in the proposition "If ''P'', then ''Q''", ''P'' denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent); ''Q'' can be called a consequent. ''P'' is the :wikt:assumption, assumption in a (possibly Counterfactual conditional, counterfac ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ronald Ross
Sir Ronald Ross (13 May 1857 – 16 September 1932) was a British medical doctor who received the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 1902 for his work on the transmission of malaria, becoming the first British Nobel laureate, and the first born outside Europe. His discovery of the malarial parasite in the gastrointestinal tract of a mosquito in 1897 proved that malaria was transmitted by mosquitoes, and laid the foundation for the method of combating the disease. Ross was a polymath, writing a number of poems, published several novels, and composed songs. He was also an amateur artist and mathematician. He worked in the Indian Medical Service for 25 years. It was during his service that he made the groundbreaking medical discovery. After resigning from his service in India, he joined the faculty of Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, and continued as Professor and Chairman of Tropical Medicine of the institute for 10 years. In 1926, he became Director-in-Chie ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hilda Phoebe Hudson
Hilda Phoebe Hudson (11 June 1881 Cambridge – 26 November 1965 London) was an English mathematician who worked on algebraic geometry, in particular on Cremona transformations. Hudson was interested in the link between mathematics and her religious beliefs. Life and work In 1900 Hudson gained a scholarship and entered Newnham College at the University of Cambridge, graduating in 1903, coming 7th equal among the First Class students. After a year of further study at the University of Berlin, she returned to Newnham in 1905, first as lecturer in mathematics and later as Associate Research Fellow. Trinity College Dublin awarded her an ad eundam MA, and later a DSc, in 1906 and 1913, respectively. She was an Invited Speaker of the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM) in 1912 at Cambridge UK. Although Laura Pisati had been invited to the 1908 ICM, she died just before the start of the conference, so Hudson became the first female invited speaker at an ICM. She spent t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Anderson Gray McKendrick
Lt Col Anderson Gray McKendrick DSc FRSE (8 September 1876 – 30 May 1943) was a Scottish military physician and epidemiologist who pioneered the use of mathematical methods in epidemiology. Irwin (see below) commented on the quality of his work, "Although an amateur, he was a brilliant mathematician, with a far greater insight than many professionals." Life McKendrick was born at 2 Chester Street in Edinburgh the fifth and last child of John Gray McKendrick FRS, a distinguished physiologist, and his wife, Mary Souttar. His older brother was John Souttar McKendrick FRSE (1874-1946). He was educated at Kelvinside Academy then trained as a doctor at the University of Glasgow qualifying MB ChB in 1900. He then was commissioned in the British Army and joined the Indian Medical Service. At the rank of Lt Colonel he led an expedition into Somaliland in 1903/4 as part of what was then known as the Dervish Wars. He later worked with Ronald Ross and eventually would continue his ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
William Ogilvy Kermack
William Ogilvy Kermack FRS FRSE FRIC (26 April 1898 – 20 July 1970) was a Scottish biochemist. He made mathematical studies of epidemic spread and established links between environmental factors and specified diseases. He is noteworthy for being blind for the majority of his academic career. Together with Anderson Gray McKendrick he created the Kermack-McKendrick theory of infectious diseases. Early life and education He was born on 26 April 1898 at 36 South Street in Kirriemuir, the son of William Kermack, a postman, and his wife, Helen Eassie Ogilvy. His mother was placed in an asylum soon after his birth and died when he was six and he was raised by his father's sister Margaret Osler Kermack, wife of David Marnie, a blacksmith. He was raised with their four children - his cousins. William was educated at Webster's Seminary in Kirriemuir under headmaster Thomas Pullar. He won a bursary and began studying Mathematics and Natural Philosophy at the University of Aberdeen in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Epidemic Model
Compartmental models are a very general modelling technique. They are often applied to the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. The population is assigned to compartments with labels – for example, S, I, or R, (Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered). People may progress between compartments. The order of the labels usually shows the flow patterns between the compartments; for example SEIS means susceptible, exposed, infectious, then susceptible again. The origin of such models is the early 20th century, with important works being that of Ross in 1916, Ross and Hudson in 1917, Kermack and McKendrick in 1927 and Kendall in 1956. The Reed-Frost model was also a significant and widely-overlooked ancestor of modern epidemiological modelling approaches. The models are most often run with ordinary differential equations (which are deterministic), but can also be used with a stochastic (random) framework, which is more realistic but much more complicated to analyze. Models ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
