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Index Of Leading Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. The per cent change year over year of the Leading Economic Index is a lagging indicator of the market directions. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report What Predicts U.S. Recessions? uses each component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions. Revisions to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new Leading Credit Index ... etc. * The United State ...
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Leading Indicator
An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate (quit rate in American English), housing starts, consumer price index (a measure for inflation), inverted yield curve, consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, price index, and changes in credit conditions. The leading business cycle dating committee in the United States of America is the private National Bureau of Economic Research. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the field of labor economics and statistics. Other producers of economic indicators includes the Uni ...
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The Conference Board
The Conference Board, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) organization, 501(c)(3) non-profit business membership and research organization. It counts over 1,000 public and private corporations and other organizations as members, encompassing 60 countries. The Board convenes conferences and peer-learning groups, conducts economic and business management research, and publishes several widely tracked economic indicators. History The organization was founded in 1916 as the National Industrial Conference Board (NICB). At the time, tensions between labor and management in the United States were seen as potentially explosive in the wake of the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire in 1911 and the Ludlow Massacre in 1914. In 1915, presidents of twelve major corporations in the United States and six leading industry associations met in Yama, New York to formulate the business community's response to continued labor unrest and growing public criticism. Although many of the organizations’ founders—incl ...
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Non-governmental Organization
A non-governmental organization (NGO) is an independent, typically nonprofit organization that operates outside government control, though it may get a significant percentage of its funding from government or corporate sources. NGOs often focus on humanitarian or social issues but can also include clubs and associations offering services to members. Some NGOs, like the World Economic Forum, may also act as lobby groups for corporations. Unlike international organizations (IOs), which directly interact with sovereign states and governments, NGOs are independent from them. The term as it is used today was first introduced in Article 71 of the UN Charter, Article 71 of the newly formed United Nations Charter in 1945. While there is no fixed or formal definition for what NGOs are, they are generally defined as nonprofit entities that are independent of governmental influence—although they may receive government funding. According to the United Nations Department of Global Communic ...
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Variable (mathematics)
In mathematics, a variable (from Latin language, Latin ) is a Mathematical symbol, symbol, typically a letter, that refers to an unspecified mathematical object. One says colloquially that the variable ''represents'' or ''denotes'' the object, and that any valid candidate for the object is the value (mathematics), value of the variable. The values a variable can take are usually of the same kind, often numbers. More specifically, the values involved may form a Set (mathematics), set, such as the set of real numbers. The object may not always exist, or it might be uncertain whether any valid candidate exists or not. For example, one could represent two integers by the variables and and require that the value of the square of is twice the square of , which in algebraic notation can be written . A definitive proof that this relationship is impossible to satisfy when and are restricted to integer numbers isn't obvious, but it has been known since ancient times and has had a big ...
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Recession
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale Anthropogenic hazard, anthropogenic or natural disaster (e.g. a pandemic). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the International Monetary Fund, IMF. In the United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom and Canada, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive qu ...
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Economic Expansion
An economic expansion is an upturn in the level of economic activity and of the goods and services available. It is a finite period of growth, often measured by a rise in real GDP, that marks a reversal from a previous period, for example, while recovering from a recession. The explanation of fluctuations in aggregate economic activity between expansions and contractions ("booms" and "busts" within the " business cycle") is one of the primary concerns of macroeconomics. Definition According to the four stages of a business cycle (expansion, peak, contraction, trough), an expansion is an upward trend when a country's economy experiences relatively rapid growth as measured by a rise in industrial production, employment, consumer spending, and utilization of resources. Whereas a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, economic recovery and prosperity are two successive phases of expansion. Economic expansion can be affected by external factors such ...
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United States Department Of Labor
The United States Department of Labor (DOL) is one of the executive departments of the U.S. federal government. It is responsible for the administration of federal laws governing occupational safety and health, wage and hour standards, unemployment benefits, reemployment services, and occasionally, economic statistics. It is headed by the secretary of labor, who reports directly to the president of the United States and is a member of the president's Cabinet. The purpose of the Department of Labor is to foster, promote, and develop the well-being of the wage earners, job seekers, and retirees of the United States; improve working conditions; advance opportunities for profitable employment; and assure work-related benefits and rights. In carrying out this mission, the Department of Labor administers and enforces more than 180 federal laws and thousands of federal regulations. These mandates and the regulations that implement them cover many workplace activities for about 10 ...
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United States Census Bureau
The United States Census Bureau, officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the Federal statistical system, U.S. federal statistical system, responsible for producing data about the American people and American economy, economy. The U.S. Census Bureau is part of the United States Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce and its Director of the United States Census Bureau, director is appointed by the president of the United States. Currently, Ron S. Jarmin is the acting director of the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau's primary mission is conducting the United States census, U.S. census every ten years, which allocates the seats of the United States House of Representatives, U.S. House of Representatives to the U.S. state, states based on their population. The bureau's various censuses and surveys help allocate over $675 billion in federal funds every year and it assists states, local communities, and businesses in making informed decisions. T ...
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United States Treasury Note
United States Treasury securities, also called Treasuries or Treasurys, are government debt instruments issued by the United States Department of the Treasury to finance government spending as a supplement to taxation. Since 2012, the U.S. government debt has been managed by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, succeeding the Bureau of the Public Debt. There are four types of marketable Treasury securities: Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The government sells these securities in auctions conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which they can be traded in secondary markets. Non-marketable securities include savings bonds, issued to individuals; the State and Local Government Series (SLGS), purchaseable only with the proceeds of state and municipal bond sales; and the Government Account Series, purchased by units of the federal government. Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and ...
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Federal Funds Rate
In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an collateral (finance), uncollateralized basis. Bank reserves, Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets and central to the conduct of Monetary policy of the United States, monetary policy in the United States as it influences a wide range of market interest rates. The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as the effective median interest rate of overnight federal funds transactions during the previous business day. It is published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The federal funds target range is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Mar ...
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Institute For Supply Management
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the world's oldest and largest supply management association. Founded in 1915, the U.S.-based not-for-profit educational association serves professionals and organizations with interest in supply management, providing education, training, qualifications, publications, information, and research. ISM serves a community of over 50,000 members in more than 100 countries. It offers three qualifications, the Certified Professional in Supply Management (CPSM), Certified Professional in Supplier Diversity (CPSD), and the Associate Professional in Supply Management (APSM), in partnership with CAPS Research. History Institute for Supply Management originated in 1915 as the ''National Association of Purchasing Agents'' (NAPA). In the early twentieth century, the purchasing function typically did not enjoy the full support of management, which was typically indifferent to its potential. Prior to 1915, local purchasing associations had formed in at ...
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S&P 500
The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. public companies, with an aggregate market cap of more than $49.8 trillion as of March 31, 2025. The S&P 500 index is a Free-float weighted/ capitalization-weighted index. As of April 2025, the ten largest companies on the list of S&P 500 companies accounted for approximately 35% of the market capitalization of the index and were, in order of highest to lowest weighting: Apple (6.4%), Microsoft (6.2%), Nvidia (6.0%), Amazon.com (3.8%), Alphabet (3.6%, including both class A & C shares), Meta Platforms (2.7%), Berkshire Hathaway (2.0%), Broadcom (1.8%), Tesla (1.6%), and JPMorgan Chase (1.4%). The components that have increased their dividends in 25 consecutive ye ...
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