|
Ecological Fallacy
An ecological fallacy (also ecological ''inference'' fallacy or population fallacy) is a formal fallacy in the interpretation of statistical data that occurs when inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inferences about the group to which those individuals belong. "Ecological fallacy" is a term that is sometimes used to describe the fallacy of division, which is not a statistical fallacy. The four common statistical ecological fallacies are: confusion between ecological correlations and individual correlations, confusion between group average and total average, Simpson's paradox, and confusion between higher average and higher likelihood. From a statistical point of view, these ideas can be unified by specifying proper statistical models to make formal inferences, using aggregate data to make unobserved relationships in individual level data. Examples Mean and median An example of ecological fallacy is the assumption that a population mean has a simple in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Formal Fallacy
In logic and philosophical logic, philosophy, a formal fallacy is a pattern of reasoning rendered validity (logic), invalid by a flaw in its logical structure. propositional calculus, Propositional logic, for example, is concerned with the meanings of sentences and the relationships between them. It focuses on the role of logical operators, called propositional connectives, in determining whether a sentence is true. An error in the sequence will result in a deductive argument that is invalid. The argument itself could have true premises, but still have a false logical consequence, conclusion. Thus, a formal fallacy is a fallacy in which deduction goes wrong, and is no longer a logical process. This may not affect the truth of the conclusion, since validity and truth are separate in formal logic. While a logical argument is a ''non sequitur'' if, and only if, it is invalid, the term "non sequitur" typically refers to those types of invalid arguments which do not constitute formal fa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electoral College (United States)
In the United States, the Electoral College is the group of presidential electors that is formed every four years for the sole purpose of voting for the President of the United States, president and Vice President of the United States, vice president in the United States presidential election, presidential election. This process is described in Article Two of the United States Constitution, Article Two of the Constitution. The number of electors from each U.S. state, state is equal to that state's United States congressional apportionment, congressional delegation which is the number of List of current United States senators, senators (two) plus the number of US Representatives, Representatives for that state. Each state Article II of the United States Constitution#Clause 2: Method of choosing electors, appoints electors using legal procedures determined by its State legislature (United States), legislature. Federal government of the United States, Federal office holders, inclu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Secret Ballot
The secret ballot, also known as the Australian ballot, is a voting method in which a voter's identity in an election or a referendum is anonymous. This forestalls attempts to influence the voter by intimidation, blackmailing, and potential vote buying. This system is one means of achieving the goal of political privacy. Secret ballots are used in conjunction with various voting systems. The most basic form of a secret ballot uses paper ballots upon which each voter marks their choices. Without revealing the votes, the voter folds the ballot paper in half and places it in a sealed box. This box is later emptied for counting. An aspect of secret voting is the provision of a voting booth to enable the voter to write on the ballot paper without others being able to see what is being written. Today, printed ballot papers are usually provided, with the names of the candidates or questions and respective check boxes. Provisions are made at the polling place for the voters to record the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
2004 Washington Gubernatorial Election
The 2004 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2004. The race gained national attention for its legal twists and extremely close finish, among the closest political races in United States election history. Republican Dino Rossi was declared the winner of the initial count and again of the automated recount, but after a second recount done by hand, Democrat Christine Gregoire took the lead by a margin of 129 votes. Although Gregoire was sworn in as governor of Washington on January 12, 2005, Rossi did not formally concede and called for a re-vote over concerns about the integrity of the election. The Republican Party filed a lawsuit in Chelan County Superior Court contesting the election, but the trial judge ruled against it, citing lack of evidence of deliberate electoral sabotage. Rossi chose not to appeal to the Washington State Supreme Court, formally conceding the election on June 6, 2005. Gregoire was re-elected in 2008 in a rematch with Rossi. P ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Categorical Variable
In statistics, a categorical variable (also called qualitative variable) is a variable that can take on one of a limited, and usually fixed, number of possible values, assigning each individual or other unit of observation to a particular group or nominal category on the basis of some qualitative property. In computer science and some branches of mathematics, categorical variables are referred to as enumerations or enumerated types. Commonly (though not in this article), each of the possible values of a categorical variable is referred to as a level. The probability distribution associated with a random categorical variable is called a categorical distribution. Categorical data is the statistical data type consisting of categorical variables or of data that has been converted into that form, for example as grouped data. More specifically, categorical data may derive from observations made of qualitative data that are summarised as counts or cross tabulations, or from observat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dummy Variable (statistics)
In regression analysis, a dummy variable (also known as indicator variable or just dummy) is one that takes a binary value (0 or 1) to indicate the absence or presence of some categorical effect that may be expected to shift the outcome. For example, if we were studying the relationship between biological sex and income, we could use a dummy variable to represent the sex of each individual in the study. The variable could take on a value of 1 for males and 0 for females (or vice versa). In machine learning this is known as one-hot encoding. Dummy variables are commonly used in regression analysis to represent categorical variables that have more than two levels, such as education level or occupation. In this case, multiple dummy variables would be created to represent each level of the variable, and only one dummy variable would take on a value of 1 for each observation. Dummy variables are useful because they allow us to include categorical variables in our analysis, which ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Omitted-variable Bias
In statistics, omitted-variable bias (OVB) occurs when a statistical model leaves out one or more relevant variables. The bias results in the model attributing the effect of the missing variables to those that were included. More specifically, OVB is the bias that appears in the estimates of parameters in a regression analysis, when the assumed specification is incorrect in that it omits an independent variable that is a determinant of the dependent variable and correlated with one or more of the included independent variables. In linear regression Intuition Suppose the true cause-and-effect relationship is given by: :y=a+bx+cz+u with parameters ''a, b, c'', dependent variable ''y'', independent variables ''x'' and ''z'', and error term ''u''. We wish to know the effect of ''x'' itself upon ''y'' (that is, we wish to obtain an estimate of ''b''). Two conditions must hold true for omitted-variable bias to exist in linear regression: * the omitted variable must be a determ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Law Of Total Probability
In probability theory, the law (or formula) of total probability is a fundamental rule relating marginal probabilities to conditional probabilities. It expresses the total probability of an outcome which can be realized via several distinct events, hence the name. Statement The law of total probability isZwillinger, D., Kokoska, S. (2000) ''CRC Standard Probability and Statistics Tables and Formulae'', CRC Press. page 31. a theorem that states, in its discrete case, if \left\ is a finite or countably infinite set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events, then for any event A :P(A)=\sum_n P(A\cap B_n) or, alternatively, :P(A)=\sum_n P(A\mid B_n)P(B_n), where, for any n, if P(B_n) = 0 , then these terms are simply omitted from the summation since P(A\mid B_n) is finite. The summation can be interpreted as a weighted average, and consequently the marginal probability, P(A), is sometimes called "average probability"; "overall probability" is sometimes used i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ecological Correlation
In statistics, an ecological correlation (also ''spatial correlation'') is a correlation between two variables that are group means, in contrast to a correlation between two variables that describe individuals. For example, one might study the correlation between physical activity and weight among sixth-grade children. A study at the individual level might make use of 100 children, then measure both physical activity and weight; the correlation between the two variables would be at the individual level. By contrast, another study might make use of 100 classes of sixth-grade students, then measure the mean physical activity and the mean weight of each of the 100 classes. A correlation between these group means would be an example of an ecological correlation. Because a correlation describes the measured strength of a relationship, correlations at the group level can be much higher than those at the individual level. Thinking both are equal is an example of ecological fallacy. See a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Journal Of Sociology
The ''American Journal of Sociology'' is a peer-reviewed bi-monthly academic journal that publishes original research and book reviews in the field of sociology and related social sciences. It was founded in 1895 as the first journal in its discipline. It is along with ''American Sociological Review'' considered one of the top journals in sociology. The current editor is John Levi Martin. For its entire history, the journal has been housed at the University of Chicago and published by the University of Chicago Press. History For its first thirty years, the American Sociological Society (now the American Sociological Association) was largely dominated by the sociology department of the University of Chicago, and the quasi-official journal of the association was Chicago's ''American Journal of Sociology''. The first issue of the AJS was published in July 1895. In the first 25 years of the journal, the most prominent subjects were social theory and social psychology. In the 192 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Journal Of Epidemiology
The ''International Journal of Epidemiology'' is a bimonthly peer-reviewed medical journal covering research in epidemiology. It is the official journal of the International Epidemiological Association and is published by Oxford University Press. The journal is a member of the Committee on Publication Ethics. The editor-in-chief is Stephen Leeder (University of Sydney). History The journal was established in 1972 by the International Epidemiological Association to facilitate communication among its members and all those engaged in research, teaching and the application of epidemiology. The first editor-in-chief, Walter W. Holland, hoped to "overcome some of the problems of publication of epidemiological work in local journals, which often tend to be unavailable to workers outside that country" and to "create an international viewpoint of health problems." Editors The following persons are or have been editors-in-chief: *1972–1977: Walter W. Holland *1978–1981: A.E. Bennet ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Sociological Review
The ''American Sociological Review'' is a bi-monthly peer-reviewed academic journal covering all aspects of sociology. It is published by SAGE Publications on behalf of the American Sociological Association. It was established in 1936. It is along with '' American Journal of Sociology'' considered one of the top journals in sociology. The editors-in-chief are David Cort ( University of Massachusetts Amherst), Laurel Smith-Doerr ( University of Massachusetts Amherst), and Donald Tomaskovic-Devey ( University of Massachusetts Amherst). History Founding For its first thirty years, the American Sociological Society (now the American Sociological Association) was largely dominated by the sociology department of the University of Chicago, and the quasi-official journal of the association was Chicago's ''American Journal of Sociology''. The creation of the ''American Sociological Review'' has been seen as a rebellion against the dominance of the Chicago School in sociology. In 1935 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
