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Clustering Illusion
The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable "streaks" or "clusters" arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of Statistical dispersion, variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or pseudorandom data. Thomas Gilovich, an early author on the subject, argued that the effect occurs for different types of random dispersions. Some might perceive patterns in stock market price fluctuations over time, or clusters in two-dimensional data such as the locations of impact of World War II V-1 flying bombs on maps of London. Although Londoners developed specific theories about the pattern of impacts within London, a statistical analysis by R. D. Clarke originally published in 1946 showed that the impacts of V-2 rockets on London were a close fit to a random distribution. Similar biases Using this cognitive bias in causal reasoning may result in the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Plot Of Random Points
Plot or Plotting may refer to: Art, media and entertainment * Plot (narrative), the connected story elements of a piece of fiction Music * The Plot (album), ''The Plot'' (album), a 1976 album by jazz trumpeter Enrico Rava * The Plot (band), a band formed in 2003 Other * Plot (film), ''Plot'' (film), a 1973 French-Italian film * Plotting (video game), ''Plotting'' (video game), a 1989 Taito puzzle video game, also called Flipull * The Plot (video game), ''The Plot'' (video game), a platform game released in 1988 for the Amstrad CPC and Sinclair Spectrum * Plotting (non-fiction), ''Plotting'' (non-fiction), a 1939 book on writing by Jack Woodford * The Plot (novel), ''The Plot'' (novel), a 2021 mystery by Jean Hanff Korelitz * The Plot (card game), a Patience-type card game * The Plot (film), a 2024 South Korean crime thriller film Graphics * Plot (graphics), a graphical technique for representing a data set * Plot (radar), a graphic display that shows all collated data from a shi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman (; ; March 5, 1934 – March 27, 2024) was an Israeli-American psychologist best known for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences together with Vernon L. Smith. Kahneman's published empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. Kahneman became known as the "grandfather of behavioral economics." With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases, and developed prospect theory. In 2011, Kahneman was named by ''Foreign Policy'' magazine in its list of top global thinkers. In the same year, his book '' Thinking, Fast and Slow'', which summarizes much of his research, was published and became a best seller. In 2015, ''The Economist'' listed him as the seventh most influential economist in the world. Kah ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cognitive Biases
A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, and irrationality. While cognitive biases may initially appear to be negative, some are adaptive. They may lead to more effective actions in a given context. Furthermore, allowing cognitive biases enables faster decisions which can be desirable when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics. Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), the impact of an individual's constitution and biological state (see embodied cognition), or simply from a limited c ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Randomness
A numeric sequence is said to be statistically random when it contains no recognizable patterns or regularities; sequences such as the results of an ideal dice, dice roll or the digits of pi, π exhibit statistical randomness. Statistical randomness does not necessarily imply "true" randomness, i.e., objective Predictability, unpredictability. Pseudorandomness is sufficient for many uses, such as statistics, hence the name ''statistical'' randomness. ''Global randomness'' and ''local randomness'' are different. Most philosophical conceptions of randomness are global—because they are based on the idea that "in the long run" a sequence looks truly random, even if certain sub-sequences would ''not'' look random. In a "truly" random sequence of numbers of sufficient length, for example, it is probable there would be long sequences of nothing but repeating numbers, though on the whole the sequence might be random. ''Local'' randomness refers to the idea that there can be minimum s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Poisson Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution () is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. It can also be used for the number of events in other types of intervals than time, and in dimension greater than 1 (e.g., number of events in a given area or volume). The Poisson distribution is named after French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson. It plays an important role for discrete-stable distributions. Under a Poisson distribution with the expectation of ''λ'' events in a given interval, the probability of ''k'' events in the same interval is: :\frac . For instance, consider a call center which receives an average of ''λ ='' 3 calls per minute at all times of day. If the calls are independent, receiving one does not change the probability of when the next on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Poisson Clumping
Poisson clumping, or Poisson bursts, is a phenomenon where random events may appear to occur in clusters, clumps, or bursts. Etymology Poisson clumping is named for 19th-century French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson, known for his work on definite integrals, electromagnetic theory, and probability theory, and after whom the Poisson distribution is also named. History The Poisson process provides a description of random independent events occurring with uniform probability through time and/or space. The expected number λ of events in a time interval or area of a given measure is proportional to that measure. The distribution of the number of events follows a Poisson distribution entirely determined by the parameter λ. If λ is small, events are rare, but may nevertheless occur in clumps—referred to as Poisson clumps or bursts—purely by chance. In many cases there is no other cause behind such indefinite groupings besides the nature of randomness following this distri ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Numeracy Bias
Precision bias also known as numeracy bias is a form of cognitive bias in which an evaluator of information commits a logical fallacy as the result of confusing accuracy and precision. More particularly, in assessing the merits of an argument, a measurement, or a report, an observer or assessor falls prey to precision bias when they believe that greater precision implies greater accuracy (i.e., that simply because a statement is precise, it is also true); the observer or assessor are said to provide false precision. The clustering illusion and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy may both be treated as relatives of precision bias. In these related fallacies, precision is mistakenly considered evidence of causation, when in fact the clustered information may actually be the result of randomness. See also *Accuracy and precision Accuracy and precision are two measures of ''observational error''. ''Accuracy'' is how close a given set of measurements (observations or readings) are to th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
List Of Cognitive Biases
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm and/or rationality in judgment. They are often studied in psychology, sociology and behavioral economics. Although the reality of most of these biases is confirmed by reproducible research, there are often controversies about how to classify these biases or how to explain them. Several theoretical causes are known for some cognitive biases, which provides a classification of biases by their common generative mechanism (such as noisy information-processing). Gerd Gigerenzer has criticized the framing of cognitive biases as errors in judgment, and favors interpreting them as arising from rational deviations from logical thought. Explanations include information-processing rules (i.e., mental shortcuts), called ''heuristics'', that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. Biases have a variety of forms and appear as cognitive ("cold") bias, such as mental noise, or motivational ("hot") bias, such as when bel ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias, myside bias, or congeniality bias) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or Value (ethics and social sciences), values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Biased search for information, biased interpretation of this information and biased memory recall, have been invoked to explain four specific effects: # ''attitude polarization'' (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence) # ''belief perseverance'' (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false) # the ''irrational primacy effect'' (a greater relia ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Complete Spatial Randomness
Complete spatial randomness (CSR) describes a point process whereby point events occur within a given study area in a completely random fashion. It is synonymous with a ''homogeneous spatial Poisson process''.O. Maimon, L. Rokach, ''Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Handbook'', Second Edition, Springer 2010, pages 851-852 Such a process is modeled using only one parameter \rho, i.e. the density of points within the defined area. The term complete spatial randomness is commonly used in Applied Statistics in the context of examining certain point patterns, whereas in most other statistical contexts it is referred to the concept of a spatial Poisson process. Model Data in the form of a set of points, irregularly distributed within a region of space, arise in many different contexts; examples include locations of trees in a forest, of nests of birds, of nuclei in tissue, of ill people in a population at risk. We call any such data-set a spatial point pattern and refer to the loc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Alignments Of Random Points
The study of alignments of random points in a plane seeks to discover subsets of points that occupy an approximately straight line within a larger set of points that are randomly placed in a planar region. Studies have shown that such near-alignments occur by chance with greater frequency than one might intuitively expect. This has been put forward as a demonstration that ley lines and other similar mysterious alignments believed by some to be phenomena of deep significance might exist solely due to chance alone, as opposed to the supernatural or anthropological explanations put forward by their proponents. The topic has also been studied in the fields of computer vision and astronomy. A number of studies have examined the mathematics of alignment of random points on the plane. In all of these, the width of the line — the allowed displacement of the positions of the points from a perfect straight line — is important. It allows the fact that real-world features are not mathe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Apophenia
Apophenia () is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things. The term ( from the ) was coined by psychiatrist Klaus Conrad in his 1958 publication on the beginning stages of schizophrenia. He defined it as "unmotivated seeing of connections ccompanied bya specific feeling of abnormal meaningfulness". He described the early stages of delusional thought as self-referential over-interpretations of actual sensory perceptions, as opposed to hallucinations. Apophenia has also come to describe a human propensity to unreasonably seek definite patterns in random information, such as can occur in gambling. Introduction Apophenia can be considered a commonplace effect of brain function. Taken to an extreme, however, it can be a symptom of psychiatric dysfunction, for example, as a symptom in schizophrenia, where a patient sees hostile patterns (for example, a conspiracy to persecute them) in ordinary actions. Apophenia is also typical of conspiracy theor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
