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Bass Diffusion Model
The Bass model or Bass diffusion model was developed by Frank Bass. It consists of a simple differential equation that describes the process of how new products get adopted in a population. The model presents a rationale of how current adopters and potential adopters of a new product interact. The basic premise of the model is that adopters can be classified as innovators or as imitators, and the speed and timing of adoption depends on their degree of innovation and the degree of imitation among adopters. The Bass model has been widely used in forecasting, especially new product sales forecasting and technology forecasting. Mathematically, the basic Bass diffusion is a Riccati equation with constant coefficients equivalent to Verhulst—Pearl logistic growth. In 1969, Frank Bass published his paper on a new product growth model for consumer durable good, durables. Prior to this, Everett Rogers published Diffusion of innovations, ''Diffusion of Innovations'', a highly influential w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Frank Bass
Frank Myron Bass (December 27, 1926 – December 1, 2006) was an American academic in the field of marketing research and marketing science. He was the creator of the Bass diffusion model that describes the adoption of new products and technologies by first-time buyers. He died on December 1, 2006. Career Bass grew up in the small town of Cuero, Texas, Cuero, Texas. He served in the United States Navy for two years (1944–46). He received his Bachelor of Business Administration, BBA from Southwestern University in 1949, and his Master of Business Administration, MBA from the University of Texas in 1950. After completing his M.B.A. at Texas, he became interested in marketing issues. He worked as a teaching assistant and assistant professor in marketing while earning his Ph.D. at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of Illinois in 1954. In 1957 he became an assistant professor in marketing at the University of Texas. In 1959, Bass was made a Fellow at Har ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cumulative Distribution Function
In probability theory and statistics, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a real-valued random variable X, or just distribution function of X, evaluated at x, is the probability that X will take a value less than or equal to x. Every probability distribution Support (measure theory), supported on the real numbers, discrete or "mixed" as well as Continuous variable, continuous, is uniquely identified by a right-continuous Monotonic function, monotone increasing function (a càdlàg function) F \colon \mathbb R \rightarrow [0,1] satisfying \lim_F(x)=0 and \lim_F(x)=1. In the case of a scalar continuous distribution, it gives the area under the probability density function from negative infinity to x. Cumulative distribution functions are also used to specify the distribution of multivariate random variables. Definition The cumulative distribution function of a real-valued random variable X is the function given by where the right-hand side represents the probability ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Applied Mathematics
Applied mathematics is the application of mathematics, mathematical methods by different fields such as physics, engineering, medicine, biology, finance, business, computer science, and Industrial sector, industry. Thus, applied mathematics is a combination of mathematical science and specialized knowledge. The term "applied mathematics" also describes the profession, professional specialty in which mathematicians work on practical problems by formulating and studying mathematical models. In the past, practical applications have motivated the development of mathematical theories, which then became the subject of study in pure mathematics where abstract concepts are studied for their own sake. The activity of applied mathematics is thus intimately connected with research in pure mathematics. History Historically, applied mathematics consisted principally of Mathematical analysis, applied analysis, most notably differential equations; approximation theory (broadly construed, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lazy User Model
The lazy user model of solution selection (LUM) is a model in information systems proposed by Tétard and Collan that tries to explain how an individual selects a solution to fulfill a need from a set of possible solution alternatives. LUM expects that a solution is selected from a set of available solutions based on the amount of effort the solutions require from the user – the user is supposed to select the solution that carries the least effort. The model is applicable to a number of different types of situations, but it can be said to be closely related to technology acceptance models. The model draws from earlier works on how least effort affects human behaviour in information seeking and in scaling of language. Earlier research within the discipline of information systems especially within the topic of technology acceptance and technology adoption is closely related to the lazy user model. The model structure The model starts from the observation that there is a " u ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might Estimation, estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional data, cross-sectional or longitudinal study, longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Diffusion Of Innovation
Diffusion of innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread. The theory was popularized by Everett Rogers in his book ''Diffusion of Innovations'', first published in 1962. Rogers argues that diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the participants in a social system. The origins of the diffusion of innovations theory are varied and span multiple disciplines. Rogers proposes that five main elements influence the spread of a new idea: the innovation itself, adopters, communication channels, time, and a social system. This process relies heavily on social capital. The innovation must be widely adopted in order to self-sustain. Within the rate of adoption, there is a point at which an innovation reaches critical mass. In 1989, management consultants working at the consulting firm Regis McKenna, Inc. theorized that this point lies at the boundary between the ea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Virtual Communities
A virtual community is a social network of individuals who connect through specific social media, potentially crossing geographical and political boundaries in order to pursue mutual interests or goals. Some of the most pervasive virtual communities are online community, online communities operating under social networking services. Howard Rheingold discussed virtual communities in his book, ''The Virtual Community (book), The Virtual Community'', published in 1993. The book's discussion ranges from Rheingold's adventures on The WELL, computer-mediated communication, social groups and information science. Technologies cited include Usenet, Multi-user dungeon, MUDs (Multi-User Dungeon) and their derivatives MUSHes and MOOs, Internet Relay Chat (IRC), chat rooms and electronic mailing lists. Rheingold also points out the potential benefits for personal psychological well-being, as well as for society at large, of belonging to a virtual community. At the same time, it showed that ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Logistic Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the logistic distribution is a continuous probability distribution. Its cumulative distribution function is the logistic function, which appears in logistic regression and feedforward neural networks. It resembles the normal distribution in shape but has heavier tails (higher kurtosis). The logistic distribution is a special case of the Tukey lambda distribution. Specification Cumulative distribution function The logistic distribution receives its name from its cumulative distribution function, which is an instance of the family of logistic functions. The cumulative distribution function of the logistic distribution is also a scaled version of the Hyperbolic function, hyperbolic tangent. :F(x; \mu, s) = \frac = \frac12 + \frac12 \operatorname \left(\frac\right). In this equation is the mean, and is a scale parameter proportional to the standard deviation. Probability density function The probability density function is the partia ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exponential Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the distance between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate; the distance parameter could be any meaningful mono-dimensional measure of the process, such as time between production errors, or length along a roll of fabric in the weaving manufacturing process. It is a particular case of the gamma distribution. It is the continuous analogue of the geometric distribution, and it has the key property of being memoryless. In addition to being used for the analysis of Poisson point processes it is found in various other contexts. The exponential distribution is not the same as the class of exponential families of distributions. This is a large class of probability distributions that includes the exponential distribution as one of its members, but also includ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
