South Australian state election, 2018
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The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th
Parliament of South Australia The Parliament of South Australia is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of South Australia. It consists of the 47-seat House of Assembly ( lower house) and the 22-seat Legislative Council (upper house). General elections are ...
was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the
House of Assembly House of Assembly is a name given to the legislature or lower house of a bicameral parliament. In some countries this may be at a subnational level. Historically, in British Crown colonies as the colony gained more internal responsible gove ...
or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier
Jay Weatherill Jay Wilson Weatherill (born 3 April 1964) is an Australian politician who was the 45th Premier of South Australia, serving from 21 October 2011 until 19 March 2018. Weatherill represented the House of Assembly seat of Cheltenham as a member of ...
was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by
Opposition Leader The Leader of the Opposition is a title traditionally held by the leader of the largest political party not in government, typical in countries utilizing the parliamentary system form of government. The leader of the opposition is typically se ...
Steven Marshall.
Nick Xenophon Nick Xenophon ( Nicholas Xenophou; born 29 January 1959) is an Australian politician and lawyer who was a Senator for South Australia from 2008 to 2017. He was the leader of two political parties: Nick Xenophon Team federally, and Nick Xenophon ...
's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power. Like federal elections, South Australia has
compulsory voting Compulsory voting, also called mandatory voting, is the requirement in some countries that eligible citizens register and vote in elections. Penalties might be imposed on those who fail to do so without a valid reason. According to the CIA World ...
, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for
single-member electorate A single-member district is an electoral district represented by a single officeholder. It contrasts with a multi-member district, which is represented by multiple officeholders. Single-member districts are also sometimes called single-winner vot ...
s in the lower house and optional preference
single transferable voting Single transferable vote (STV) is a multi-winner electoral system in which voters cast a single vote in the form of a ranked-choice ballot. Voters have the option to rank candidates, and their vote may be transferred according to alternate p ...
in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the
Electoral Commission of South Australia The Electoral Commission SA is an independent office which forms part of the Government of South Australia, and which conducts parliamentary state elections every four years. History In 1907 the then State Electoral Department was establish ...
(ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.


Results


House of Assembly


Seats changing hands


Party-redistributed seats

The seats of Colton, Elder,
Mawson Sir Douglas Mawson OBE FRS FAA (5 May 1882 – 14 October 1958) was an Australian geologist, Antarctic explorer, and academic. Along with Roald Amundsen, Robert Falcon Scott, and Sir Ernest Shackleton, he was a key expedition leader durin ...
and Newland were won by Labor at the previous election, but the 2016 redistribution made them notionally Liberal seats. Colton, Elder and Newland were won by the Liberals; Mawson was retained by Labor.


Legislative Council


Aftermath

Four hours after the close of polls, at approximately 10pm ACDT, incumbent Premier Jay Weatherill telephoned Steven Marshall and conceded defeat. Weatherill subsequently publicly announced that he had conceded, saying, "I'm sorry I couldn't bring home another victory, but I do feel like one of those horses that has won four Melbourne Cups and I think the handicap has caught up with us on this occasion." Marshall claimed victory saying, "A massive thank you to the people of South Australia who have put their trust, their faith in me and the Liberal team for a new dawn, a new dawn for South Australia!" After the SA Best party failed to win a seat including Hartley, Nick Xenophon ruled out a return to federal politics. Following the election outcome, Weatherill resigned as state Labor leader and returned to the backbench. Outgoing Minister for Health
Peter Malinauskas Peter Bryden Malinauskas ( ; born 14 August 1980) is an Australian politician, serving as the 47th and current premier of South Australia since March 2022. He has been the leader of the South Australian Branch of the Australian Labor Party (AL ...
became Leader of the Opposition, with outgoing Education Minister
Susan Close Susan Elizabeth Close (born 12 November 1967) is an Australian politician, who is currently the Deputy Premier of South Australia since March 2022. She also holds the ministerial portfolios of Minister for Climate, Environment and Water, Minist ...
as deputy, following a Labor caucus meeting on 9 April 2018. Notably, the Liberals won 16 of the 33 metropolitan seats, their best showing in the Adelaide area since their landslide victory in
1993 File:1993 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The Oslo I Accord is signed in an attempt to resolve the Israeli–Palestinian conflict; The Russian White House is shelled during the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis; Czechoslovakia is peacefu ...
, when they took all but nine seats in the capital. Labor had spent all but 12 of the 48 years since the end of the
Playmander The Playmander was a gerrymandering system, a pro-rural electoral malapportionment in the Australian state of South Australia, which was introduced by the incumbent Liberal and Country League (LCL) government in 1936, and remained in place for 32 ...
in government due to its traditional dominance of Adelaide. South Australia is one of the most centralised states in Australia; Adelaide is home to over three-quarters of the state's population. To a greater extent than other state capitals, Adelaide is decisive in deciding state election outcomes. Since the end of the Playmander, most elections have seen Labor win most of the metropolitan seats, with most of the Liberal vote locked up in safe rural seats. In 2010, for instance, the Liberals won 51 percent of the two-party vote on a swing that should have been large enough to deliver them government. However, they only won nine seats in Adelaide, allowing Labor to eke out a two-seat majority. In 2014, while picking up a two percent two-party swing, the Liberals were only able to win an additional three seats in Adelaide.


Campaign

Nick Xenophon Nick Xenophon ( Nicholas Xenophou; born 29 January 1959) is an Australian politician and lawyer who was a Senator for South Australia from 2008 to 2017. He was the leader of two political parties: Nick Xenophon Team federally, and Nick Xenophon ...
announced a few SA Best lower house
candidates A candidate, or nominee, is the prospective recipient of an award or honor, or a person seeking or being considered for some kind of position; for example: * to be elected to an office — in this case a candidate selection procedure occurs. * t ...
. Polls had included Xenophon's party as one of the four parties they monitored explicitly since February 2016. Originally, SA Best planned to only contest 12 seats. This was increased to 20. On 27 January, a landmark was passed when Xenophon announced eight new candidates, making a total of 24. This was the minimum number to be theoretically capable of forming majority government in the 47-seat house. On 1 February, Xenophon said it was likely the total number of SA Best lower house candidates would be around 30. During the election Xenophon and his party pushed for a law that Ice users in South Australia will be forced into drug rehabilitation. After early opinion polls indicated that it could outperform other parties, the party ultimately contested 36 seats in the House of Assembly and put forward four candidates for the upper house. Opinion polling indicated a strong performance for the party was possible in at least 10 seats. Ultimately, the party failed to secure any lower house seats, although there was a close contest in the seat of Heysen. Xenophon failed to win the seat of Hartley which was retained by the Liberals, with un-finalised results indicating a two-party preferred vote of around 42%. The party came second on primary votes in ten seats; the strongest results were in Chaffey, Finniss, and Hartley, where the party received over 25%. SA Best did, however, secure two upper house positions, with the successful election of
Connie Bonaros Constadina Bonaros is an Australian politician. She has been an SA Best member of the South Australian Legislative Council since the 2018 state election. Career Bonaros has undergraduate degrees in Laws and Arts (Modern Greek and Social Polit ...
, the campaign manager, and
Frank Pangallo Frank Pangallo (born October 1954) is an Australian journalist and politician. He has been an SA Best member of the South Australian Legislative Council since the 2018 state election. Pangallo worked for the ''News'' in Adelaide, becoming edi ...
, Xenophon's former media advisor. Following the election, NXT Senator Stirling Griff claimed that polling indicated a 5% drop in SA Best's vote as a direct result of negative advertisements by two major parties as well as the
Australian Hotels Association The Australian Hotels Association (AHA) is a federation of not-for-profit employer associations in the hotel and hospitality industry, registered under the Fair Work Act and respective State Laws. The AHA's role is to further and protect the inte ...
(AHA). He also claimed paternity for an election ad that had been described as "wacky, cheesy" and that that ad actually led to a polling bump for SA Best.
Cory Bernardi Cory Bernardi (born 6 November 1969) is an Australian conservative political commentator and former politician. He was a Senator for South Australia from 2006 to 2020, and was the leader of the Australian Conservatives, a minor political party ...
's new party
Australian Conservatives The Australian Conservatives was formed in July 2016 as a conservative political activist group in Australia and as a political party in February 2017. It was led by Cory Bernardi, who had been elected to the Senate for the Liberal Party, b ...
which merged with
Family First Party The Family First Party was a conservative political party in Australia which existed from 2002 to 2017. It was founded in South Australia where it enjoyed its greatest electoral support. Since the demise of the Australian Conservatives into wh ...
with its two state incumbents
Dennis Hood Dennis Garry Edward Hood (born 12 January 1970) is an Australian politician who began his political career as a member of the South Australian Legislative Council in 2006 on the Family First Party's ticket. In 2017, Family First merged into the ...
and
Robert Brokenshire Robert Lawrence Brokenshire (born 1957) is a South Australian dairy farmer and former member of the South Australian Parliament. He represented the Australian Conservatives from 26 April 2017 to election defeat in 2018, and Family First Party ...
with the Australian Conservatives in April 2017 also ran its first election. It would not win any seats.


Key seats for SA Best

The table lists, according to The Poll Bludger website and based on the
Nick Xenophon Team Centre Alliance, formerly known as the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), is a centrist political party in Australia based in the state of South Australia. It currently has one representative in the Parliament, Rebekha Sharkie in the House of Represe ...
's Senate vote performance at the 2016 federal election, the strongest SA Best seats. Though most of the listed seats are safe Liberal seats, a third party or candidate with a substantial vote was believed to be more likely to be successful in a traditionally safe seat than a marginal seat due to it being easier to out-poll the comparatively low primary vote of the seat's traditionally uncompetitive major party, usually before but occasionally after the distribution of preferences (see 2009 Frome state by-election). If the third party attracts enough first preference votes away from the dominant party, then it is possible that the preferences of voters for the second traditional party will assist the new party's candidate to overtake and therefore defeat the incumbent on the
two-candidate-preferred In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote (TPP or 2PP) is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, ...
vote (rather than the normally pivotal
two-party-preferred In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote (TPP or 2PP) is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP ...
vote). According to ''The Poll Bludger'', Nick Xenophon's SA Best candidates "will stand an excellent chance in any seat where they are able to outpoll one or other major party, whose voters will overwhelmingly place them higher than the candidate of the rival major party. In that circumstance, the more strongly performing major party candidate will be in serious trouble unless their own primary vote approaches 50%, which will be difficult to achieve in circumstances where approaching a quarter of the vote has gone to SA Best." Analysis in December 2017 from polling company Essential Research found SA Best preference flows of 60/40 to Liberal/Labor, indicating that the substantial third party presence of SA Best is eating in to the Liberal vote somewhat greater than the Labor vote.


Background


Overview

There were fourteen political parties registered with the Electoral Commission of South Australia at the time of the election, which were consequently eligible to field candidates for election. Aside from the major parties (Labor and Liberal parties), SA-Best, which polled higher figures than the major parties on occasion, ran in 36 seats, more than the 24 theoretically required to form government. The fourteen parties registered with the Commission were Advance SA,
Animal Justice Party Animal Justice Party (AJP) is a political party in Australia founded in 2009. The party was registered by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on 3 May 2011. The party is also registered in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, ...
,
Australian Conservatives The Australian Conservatives was formed in July 2016 as a conservative political activist group in Australia and as a political party in February 2017. It was led by Cory Bernardi, who had been elected to the Senate for the Liberal Party, b ...
, Child Protection Party, Danig Party of Australia, Dignity Party, the Australian Greens SA, Australian Labor Party (SA Branch) and Country Labor Party, Liberal Party of Australia (SA Division), Liberal Democratic Party, the National Party of Australia (SA) Inc,
Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST SA-Best (stylised SA-BEST), formerly known as Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST, is a political party in South Australia. It was founded in 2017 by Nick Xenophon as a state-based partner to his Nick Xenophon Team party (renamed to Centre Alliance in early ...
, and
Stop Population Growth Now Stop Population Growth Now is a registered political party in South Australia led by Bob Couch. The party contested the 2014 state election in the Legislative Assembly (upper house) with a 0.4 percent vote. In the 2018 State Election, the party ...
. Since the previous election, six new parties had registered: Danig Party of Australia,
Animal Justice Party Animal Justice Party (AJP) is a political party in Australia founded in 2009. The party was registered by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on 3 May 2011. The party is also registered in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, ...
,
Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST SA-Best (stylised SA-BEST), formerly known as Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST, is a political party in South Australia. It was founded in 2017 by Nick Xenophon as a state-based partner to his Nick Xenophon Team party (renamed to Centre Alliance in early ...
,
Australian Conservatives The Australian Conservatives was formed in July 2016 as a conservative political activist group in Australia and as a political party in February 2017. It was led by Cory Bernardi, who had been elected to the Senate for the Liberal Party, b ...
, Advance SA and the Child Protection Party. Four were no longer registered:
FREE Australia Party The FREE Australia Party, fully the Freedom Rights Environment Educate Australia Party, is a defunct minor political party in South Australia founded by Paul Kuhn. It opposed SA Labor anti- bikie laws and promotes civil liberties. It ran at the ...
, Fishing and Lifestyle Party, Multicultural Progress Party and the
Family First Party The Family First Party was a conservative political party in Australia which existed from 2002 to 2017. It was founded in South Australia where it enjoyed its greatest electoral support. Since the demise of the Australian Conservatives into wh ...
.


Voting changes

Like federal elections, South Australia has
compulsory voting Compulsory voting, also called mandatory voting, is the requirement in some countries that eligible citizens register and vote in elections. Penalties might be imposed on those who fail to do so without a valid reason. According to the CIA World ...
and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for
single-member electorate A single-member district is an electoral district represented by a single officeholder. It contrasts with a multi-member district, which is represented by multiple officeholders. Single-member districts are also sometimes called single-winner vot ...
s in the lower house. However, following similar Senate changes which took effect from the 2016 federal election, South Australia's
single transferable vote Single transferable vote (STV) is a multi-winner electoral system in which voters cast a single vote in the form of a ranked-choice ballot. Voters have the option to rank candidates, and their vote may be transferred according to alternate ...
in the proportionally represented upper house changed from
group voting ticket A group voting ticket (GVT) is a shortcut for voters in a preferential voting system, where a voter can indicate support for a list of candidates instead of marking preferences for individual candidates. For multi-member electoral divisions with s ...
s to
optional preferential voting One of the ways in which ranked voting systems vary is whether an individual vote must express a minimum number of preferences to avoid being considered invalid ("spoiled" or "informal"). Possibilities are: * Full preferential voting (FPV) requir ...
− instructions for above the line votes were to mark '1' and then further preferences optional as opposed to preference flows from simply '1' above the line being determined by group voting tickets, while instructions for voters who instead opt to vote below the line were to provide at least twelve preferences as opposed to having to number all candidates, and with a savings provision to admit ballot papers which indicate at least six below-the-line preferences.


Previous election

The 2014 election resulted in a
hung parliament A hung parliament is a term used in legislatures primarily under the Westminster system to describe a situation in which no single political party or pre-existing coalition (also known as an alliance or bloc) has an absolute majority of legisla ...
with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two
crossbench A crossbencher is an independent or minor party member of some legislatures, such as the British House of Lords and the Parliament of Australia. They take their name from the crossbenches, between and perpendicular to the government and oppositi ...
independents,
Bob Such Robert Bruce Such (2 June 194411 October 2014) was a South Australian politician. He was the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly from 1989 until his death in 2014. He defeated Labor MP Philip Tyler at the 1 ...
and
Geoff Brock Geoffrey Graeme Brock (born 1950) is an Australian politician. He is an Independent (politics), Independent member in the South Australian House of Assembly, representing the seat of Electoral district of Stuart, Stuart since the 2022 South Au ...
. Such did not indicate who he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election.
University of Adelaide The University of Adelaide (informally Adelaide University) is a public research university located in Adelaide, South Australia. Established in 1874, it is the third-oldest university in Australia. The university's main campus is located on N ...
Professor and Political Commentator Clem Macintyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Premier
Jay Weatherill Jay Wilson Weatherill (born 3 April 1964) is an Australian politician who was the 45th Premier of South Australia, serving from 21 October 2011 until 19 March 2018. Weatherill represented the House of Assembly seat of Cheltenham as a member of ...
to continue in office as head of a minority government. Macintyre said:
If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.
The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when
Martin Hamilton-Smith Martin Leslie James Hamilton-Smith (born 1 December 1953) is a former Australian politician who represented the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Waite from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. First elected as a candidate ...
became an independent and entered cabinet with Brock. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the government on
confidence and supply In a parliamentary democracy based on the Westminster system, confidence and supply are required for a ruling cabinet to retain power in the lower house. A confidence-and-supply agreement is one whereby a party or independent members of par ...
while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. It is Labor's longest-serving South Australian government and the second longest-serving South Australian government behind the
Playmander The Playmander was a gerrymandering system, a pro-rural electoral malapportionment in the Australian state of South Australia, which was introduced by the incumbent Liberal and Country League (LCL) government in 1936, and remained in place for 32 ...
-assisted
Thomas Playford IV Sir Thomas Playford (5 July 1896 – 16 June 1981) was an Australian politician from the state of South Australia. He served continuously as Premier of South Australia and leader of the Liberal and Country League (LCL) from 5 November 1938 to 10 ...
. Aside from Playford, it is the second time that any party has won four consecutive state elections in South Australia, the first occurred when
Don Dunstan Donald Allan Dunstan (21 September 1926 – 6 February 1999) was an Australian politician who served as the 35th premier of South Australia from 1967 to 1968, and again from 1970 to 1979. He was a member of the House of Assembly (MHA) for th ...
led Labor to four consecutive victories between
1970 Events January * January 1 – Unix time epoch reached at 00:00:00 UTC. * January 5 – The 7.1 Tonghai earthquake shakes Tonghai County, Yunnan province, China, with a maximum Mercalli intensity of X (''Extreme''). Between 10,000 and ...
and
1977 Events January * January 8 – Three bombs explode in Moscow within 37 minutes, killing seven. The bombings are attributed to an Armenian separatist group. * January 10 – Mount Nyiragongo erupts in eastern Zaire (now the Democrat ...
. Recent
hung parliament A hung parliament is a term used in legislatures primarily under the Westminster system to describe a situation in which no single political party or pre-existing coalition (also known as an alliance or bloc) has an absolute majority of legisla ...
s occurred when Labor came to government at the 2002 election and prior to that at the 1997 election which saw the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia, created in 1974, win re-election for the first time. Following the 2014 election, Labor went from minority to majority government when
Nat Cook Natalie Fleur Cook is an Australian politician and anti-violence campaigner. She became an anti-violence campaigner after the death of her son in a one-punch attack in 2008. Cook is a Labor member of the South Australian House of Assembly, r ...
won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the
Jay Weatherill Jay Wilson Weatherill (born 3 April 1964) is an Australian politician who was the 45th Premier of South Australia, serving from 21 October 2011 until 19 March 2018. Weatherill represented the House of Assembly seat of Cheltenham as a member of ...
Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.
Frances Bedford Frances Ellen Bedford (born 5 November 1953) is an Australian politician who represented the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Florey from 1997 state election until 2022, first for the Labor Party and from 2017 as an independent. E ...
resigned from Labor and became an independent in March 2017 after minister
Jack Snelling John James "Jack" Snelling (born 8 November 1972) is a former Australian politician. He was the Labor member for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Playford from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. Snelling left the Labo ...
was endorsed for Florey pre-selection as a result of the major electoral redistribution ahead of the 2018 election. As with the rest of the crossbench, Bedford will continue to provide confidence and supply support to the incumbent Labor government. Duncan McFetridge resigned from the Liberals and moved to the crossbench as an independent in May 2017 after Stephen Patterson was endorsed for Morphett pre-selection.
Troy Bell Troy Delvon Bell (born November 10, 1980) is an American former professional basketball player in the National Basketball Association (NBA) and other leagues mostly in Europe. He is also a R&B producer. He was an All-American college player at ...
resigned from the Liberals and moved to the crossbench as an independent in August 2017 due to criminal financial allegations.


By-elections

Independent
Bob Such Robert Bruce Such (2 June 194411 October 2014) was a South Australian politician. He was the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly from 1989 until his death in 2014. He defeated Labor MP Philip Tyler at the 1 ...
died from a brain tumour on 11 October 2014 which triggered a by-election in Fisher for 6 December. Labor's
Nat Cook Natalie Fleur Cook is an Australian politician and anti-violence campaigner. She became an anti-violence campaigner after the death of her son in a one-punch attack in 2008. Cook is a Labor member of the South Australian House of Assembly, r ...
won the by-election by nine votes with a 7.3 percent two-party swing against the Liberals, resulting in a change from minority to majority government. On a 0.02 percent margin it is the most marginal seat in parliament. Despite this, the Weatherill Labor government kept
crossbench A crossbencher is an independent or minor party member of some legislatures, such as the British House of Lords and the Parliament of Australia. They take their name from the crossbenches, between and perpendicular to the government and oppositi ...
MPs
Geoff Brock Geoffrey Graeme Brock (born 1950) is an Australian politician. He is an Independent (politics), Independent member in the South Australian House of Assembly, representing the seat of Electoral district of Stuart, Stuart since the 2022 South Au ...
and
Martin Hamilton-Smith Martin Leslie James Hamilton-Smith (born 1 December 1953) is a former Australian politician who represented the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Waite from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. First elected as a candidate ...
in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.
ABC ABC are the first three letters of the Latin script known as the alphabet. ABC or abc may also refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Broadcasting * American Broadcasting Company, a commercial U.S. TV broadcaster ** Disney–ABC Television ...
psephologist
Antony Green Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian psephologist and commentator. He is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst. Early years and background Born in Warrington, Lancashire, in northern England, Gre ...
described the by-election as a "very bad result for the Liberal Party in South Australia" both state and federally, and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election is unprecedented in Australian history. Liberal Iain Evans in Electoral district of Davenport, Davenport resigned from parliament on 30 October 2014 which triggered a 2015 Davenport state by-election, 2015 Davenport by-election for 31 January. Liberal Sam Duluk won the seat despite a five percent two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a two-party marginal seat for the first time.
ABC ABC are the first three letters of the Latin script known as the alphabet. ABC or abc may also refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Broadcasting * American Broadcasting Company, a commercial U.S. TV broadcaster ** Disney–ABC Television ...
psephologist
Antony Green Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian psephologist and commentator. He is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst. Early years and background Born in Warrington, Lancashire, in northern England, Gre ...
described it as "another poor result for the South Australian Liberal Party", following the 2014 Fisher by-election which saw Labor go from minority to majority government.


Upper house casual vacancies

Following the parliamentary resignation of former Labor Minister Bernard Finnigan on 12 November 2015 following his conviction for accessing child pornography. Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association, SDA secretary
Peter Malinauskas Peter Bryden Malinauskas ( ; born 14 August 1980) is an Australian politician, serving as the 47th and current premier of South Australia since March 2022. He has been the leader of the South Australian Branch of the Australian Labor Party (AL ...
filled the Legislative Council casual vacancy in a joint sitting of the
Parliament of South Australia The Parliament of South Australia is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of South Australia. It consists of the 47-seat House of Assembly ( lower house) and the 22-seat Legislative Council (upper house). General elections are ...
on 1 December. Following the parliamentary resignation of Labor MLC Gerry Kandelaars on 17 February 2017, Justin Hanson filled the Legislative Council casual vacancy in a joint sitting of the Parliament of South Australia on 28 February.


Dates

The key dates for the 2018 election were: *17 February 2018 Issue of the writs by the Governor of South Australia *23 February 2018 Close of rolls (noon) *23 February 2018 Close of nominations for party-endorsed candidates (5pm) *26 February 2018 Close of nominations for independent candidates (noon) *26 February 2018 Declaration of candidates and draws for ballot paper order (
House of Assembly House of Assembly is a name given to the legislature or lower house of a bicameral parliament. In some countries this may be at a subnational level. Historically, in British Crown colonies as the colony gained more internal responsible gove ...
) *27 February 2018 Declaration of candidates and draws for ballot paper order ( Legislative Council) *5 March 2018 Pre-poll voting opens *17 March 2018 election day (8am–6pm) *24 March 2018 last day to receive postal votes * 26–30 March 2018 Expected formal declaration of results for House of Assembly seats in this week * Mid April 2018 Expected formal declaration of results for Legislative council The 2014 South Australian state election, last state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect members for the
House of Assembly House of Assembly is a name given to the legislature or lower house of a bicameral parliament. In some countries this may be at a subnational level. Historically, in British Crown colonies as the colony gained more internal responsible gove ...
and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the Confidence and supply, confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them. The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for general elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, six days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i)). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon three days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)).


Redistributions and the two-party vote

To produce "fair" electoral boundaries, the
Electoral Commission of South Australia The Electoral Commission SA is an independent office which forms part of the Government of South Australia, and which conducts parliamentary state elections every four years. History In 1907 the then State Electoral Department was establish ...
(ECSA) has been required following the 1989 South Australian state election, 1989 election to redraw boundaries after each election through a "fairness clause" in the state constitution, with the objective that the party which receives over 50 percent of the statewide two-party vote at the forthcoming election should win the two-party vote in a majority of seats in terms of the two-party-preferred vote calculated in all seats regardless of any differing two-candidate-preferred vote. The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission released a new draft redistribution in August 2016, as calculated from the 24 Liberal−23 Labor seat count by Two-party-preferred vote, two-party vote as recorded in all 47 seats at the 2014 South Australian state election, 2014 state election (subsequent by-election results including the significant 2014 Fisher by-election are not counted). The net change proposed would have seen a 27 Liberal−20 Labor notional seat count. The proposed changes in the draft redistribution contained significant boundary redrawing. Seven seats would be renamed − Electoral district of Ashford, Ashford would become Electoral district of Badcoe, Badcoe, Electoral district of Mitchell (South Australia), Mitchell would become Electoral district of Black, Black, Electoral district of BBright would become Electoral district of Gibson, Gibson, Electoral district of Fisher, Fisher would become Electoral district of Hurtle Vale, Hurtle Vale, Electoral district of Napier, Napier would become Electoral district of King (South Australia), King, Electoral district of Goyder, Goyder would become Electoral district of Narungga, Narungga, while Electoral district of Little Para, Little Para would once again become Electoral district of Elizabeth (South Australia), Elizabeth. In two-party terms since the previous election, the seats of
Mawson Sir Douglas Mawson OBE FRS FAA (5 May 1882 – 14 October 1958) was an Australian geologist, Antarctic explorer, and academic. Along with Roald Amundsen, Robert Falcon Scott, and Sir Ernest Shackleton, he was a key expedition leader durin ...
and Elder would become notionally Liberal seats, while Hurtle Vale would become a notionally Labor seat. Mawson in the outer southern suburbs would geographically change the most, stretching along the coast right through to as far as and including Kangaroo Island. Hurtle Vale's margin change of 9 percent would be the largest in the state, with Mawson to change 8.3 percent and King to change 8 percent. Upon the release of the draft redistribution, Liberal MP Rachel Sanderson organised the mass distribution of a pro forma document in the two inner metropolitan suburbs of Walkerville, South Australia, Walkerville and Gilberton, South Australia, Gilberton, which aimed for residents to use the pro forma document to submit their objection to the commission in support of Sanderson's campaign to keep the two suburbs in her seat of Electoral district of Adelaide, Adelaide, which in the draft would have been transferred to neighbouring Electoral district of Torrens, Torrens. Sanderson's position however was at odds with her own party's submission which in fact agreed with the commission that Walkerville should be transferred to Torrens. Under the commission's draft proposal, the Liberal margin in Adelaide would have been reduced from 2.4 percent to 0.6 percent, but would have also resulted in the Labor margin in Torrens reduced from 3.5 percent to 1.1 percent. Of a record 130 total submissions received in response to the draft redistribution, about 100 (over three quarters of all submissions) were from Walkerville and Gilberton. As a result, the commission reversed the draft decision in the final publication. Along with other various alterations in the final publication released in December 2016, in addition to Electoral district of Fisher, Hurtle Vale becoming a notionally Labor seat and
Mawson Sir Douglas Mawson OBE FRS FAA (5 May 1882 – 14 October 1958) was an Australian geologist, Antarctic explorer, and academic. Along with Roald Amundsen, Robert Falcon Scott, and Sir Ernest Shackleton, he was a key expedition leader durin ...
and Elder becoming notionally Liberal seats in the draft redistribution, the final redistribution additionally turned Newland and the bellwether of Colton in to notionally Liberal seats. These further changes provide a 27 Liberal−20 Labor notional seat count in two-party terms, a net change of three seats from Labor to Liberal since the previous election. Labor objected to the commission's interpretation of the fairness requirements and appealed against it to the Supreme Court of South Australia in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution Act 1934 (SA). Labor sought to have the redistribution order quashed and have the Boundaries Commission make a fresh redistribution. The Grounds of Appeal were stated to relate to the Commission's interpretation of section 77 relating to the number of electors in each electoral district, with the redistribution reducing the number of voters in rural seats and increasing the number of voters in metropolitan seats, though still within the one vote, one value 10 percent tolerance. The Supreme Court appeal was rejected on 10 March 2017. Labor considered but decided against an appeal to the High Court.


Post-redistribution pendulum

Below post-redistribution margins listed were calculated by the South Australian Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission, and differ somewhat from those calculated by the
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's
Antony Green Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian psephologist and commentator. He is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst. Early years and background Born in Warrington, Lancashire, in northern England, Gre ...
. The EDBC is the only redistribution authority in Australia that is required to examine voting patterns in drawing electoral boundaries, and in doing so, assume that the proportion of each party's vote in the declaration vote (postal, pre-poll and absent votes) is evenly distributed across the whole of each former electorate. Antony Green's margin estimates are more accurately calculated using declaration votes from the redistributed polling booths. Retiring members are shown in italic text.


Retiring MPs


Labor

* Michael Atkinson (politician), Michael Atkinson MHA (Electoral district of Croydon (South Australia), Croydon) * Paul Caica MHA ( Colton) * Steph Key MHA (Electoral district of Ashford, Ashford) * Jennifer Rankine MHA (Electoral district of WWright) *
Jack Snelling John James "Jack" Snelling (born 8 November 1972) is a former Australian politician. He was the Labor member for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Playford from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. Snelling left the Labo ...
MHA (Electoral district of Playford, Playford) * Leesa Vlahos MHA (Electoral district of Taylor, Taylor) * Gail Gago MLC * John Gazzola MLC


Liberal

* Mark Goldsworthy MHA (Electoral district of Kavel, Kavel) * Steven Griffiths MHA (Electoral district of Goyder, Goyder) * Michael Pengilly MHA (Electoral district of Finniss, Finniss) * Isobel Redmond MHA (Electoral district of Heysen, Heysen) * Mitch Williams (politician), Mitch Williams MHA (Electoral district of MacKillop, MacKillop)


Independent

*
Martin Hamilton-Smith Martin Leslie James Hamilton-Smith (born 1 December 1953) is a former Australian politician who represented the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Waite from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. First elected as a candidate ...
MHA (Electoral district of Waite, Waite)


Polling

The July to September 2014 Newspoll saw Labor leading the Liberals on the two-party-preferred vote, two-party preferred (2PP) vote for the first time since 2009. The October to December 2015 Newspoll saw Marshall's leadership approval rating plummet 11 points to 30 percent, the equal lowest Newspoll approval rating in history for a Leader of the Opposition (South Australia), South Australian Opposition Leader since Dale Baker in 1990. The first state-level Newspoll to be conducted in two years, in late 2017, did not publish a 2PP figure, claiming that calculating it had become difficult due to the large third-party primary vote of SA Best. Roy Morgan ceased publishing a 2PP figure from January 2018. Essential polling's 2PP figures were calculated with approximated SA Best preference flows of 60/40 to Liberal/Labor.


See also

* Candidates of the South Australian state election, 2018 * Members of the South Australian House of Assembly, 2018–2022 * Members of the South Australian Legislative Council, 2018–2022 * Results of the South Australian state election, 2018 (House of Assembly) * Results of the 2018 South Australian state election (Legislative Council) * 2014 South Australian state election * 2022 South Australian state election * Marshall_ministry


Notes


References


External links


Electoral Commission SA: 2018 State ElectionABC Elections: SA Election 2018SA election calculator
{{2018 in Australia 2018 elections in Australia 2010s in South Australia Elections in South Australia March 2018 events in Australia