''Sabato's Crystal Ball'' is an online political newsletter and election handicapper. It predicts electoral outcomes for the
United States House of Representatives
The United States House of Representatives, often referred to as the House of Representatives, the U.S. House, or simply the House, is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, with the Senate being the upper chamber. Together they ...
,
United States Senate
The United States Senate is the upper chamber of the United States Congress, with the House of Representatives being the lower chamber. Together they compose the national bicameral legislature of the United States.
The composition and po ...
University of Virginia
The University of Virginia (UVA) is a public research university in Charlottesville, Virginia. Founded in 1819 by Thomas Jefferson, the university is ranked among the top academic institutions in the United States, with highly selective ad ...
.
History
2002
The ''Crystal Ball'' was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato. For the 2002 midterm elections, the ''Crystal Ball'' tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign, with over 1,500 people subscribing to its weekly e-mail updates.
2004
Following a post-election hiatus, the ''Crystal Ball'' re-launched on January 27, 2003, to cover the 2004 election cycle. In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the ''Crystal Ball'' sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention in
Boston
Boston (), officially the City of Boston, is the state capital and most populous city of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, as well as the cultural and financial center of the New England region of the United States. It is the 24th- mo ...
New York City
New York, often called New York City or NYC, is the List of United States cities by population, most populous city in the United States. With a 2020 population of 8,804,190 distributed over , New York City is also the L ...
. On Election Day, the ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor's races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).
2006
The
Pew Research Center
The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan American think tank (referring to itself as a "fact tank") based in Washington, D.C.
It provides information on social issues, public opinion, and demographic trends shaping the United States and th ...
's Project for Excellence in Journalism found that the ''Crystal Ball'' "probably came closer than any other of the 10 top political predictors" on the 2006 election cycle. During the 2006 election cycle the ''Crystal Ball'' added House Race Editor Dave Wasserman and expanded its election coverage and analysis. The ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted a 29-seat pick-up for Democrats in the House and 6 seat pick-up in the Senate.
2008
In August 2007, the ''Crystal Ball'' added political analyst and author Rhodes Cook to its team, a veteran of '' Congressional Quarterly'' and editor of the America Votes series. Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the '' Cook Political Report'' and was replaced by Isaac Wood.
In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President, the ''Crystal Ball'' published an essay which correctly projected that
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, Obama was the first Af ...
would win in a near-landslide.
In the elections of November 2008, the ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 34 of 35 U.S. Senate races (97%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the ''Crystal Ball'' predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally. They correctly predicted 48 out of 50 states, their only errors being in Missouri, where they thought Obama would win, and in Indiana, where they thought McCain would win (the opposite happened in these 2 states), and they also inaccurately predicted McCain would win NE-2.
2010
In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives. The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans. The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.
2012
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency 290 electoral votes to 248 for Mitt Romney; there would be no change in composition of the Senate with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives making it 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.
Actually, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes, to Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 206. In the Senate, the Democrats gained a net of two seats, leaving them with a total of 53 seats. The Republicans lost a net of two seats, ending with a total of 45 seats. The remaining two senators, both independents, caucused with the Democrats, leaving the majority party with a combined total of 55 seats. House Republicans retained a 234 to 201 seat majority.
2014
In 2014, the Crystal Ball predicted that Republicans would win control of the U.S. Senate and hold the House, while also retaining the majority of state governorships. However, they underestimated the magnitude of Republican victories, incorrectly calling the result in the North Carolina Senate race, where Republican Thom Tillis defeated Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, and predicting that Republicans would pick up nine net House seats, when they actually gained thirteen. Additionally, they predicted that the Democrats would defeat incumbent Republican Governors in Florida, Kansas and Maine, while retaining their seats in Illinois and Maryland. Republicans ended up winning all five races, although the Crystal Ball correctly predicted the Republican gains of open Democratic-held governorships in Arkansas and Massachusetts, and the defeats of Republican incumbents Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania and
Sean Parnell
Sean Randall Parnell (born November 19, 1962) is an American attorney and politician. He succeeded Sarah Palin in July 2009 to become the tenth governor of Alaska and served until 2014.2016 election, Crystal Ball projected that Democrat
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...
would win the presidency 322 electoral votes to 216 for Republican
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
. They predicted a 50-50 senate, and for Democrats to pick up 13 seats in the House of Representatives, making it 201 Democrats and 234 Republicans.
It would turn out to be the most inaccurate prediction in the history of the Crystal Ball, with Sabato saying "Well, what can we say — we blew it."
The Crystal Ball incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton to win Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, all states that they had predicted as leaning for Hillary Clinton, as well as Wisconsin, a state they had rated as even safer for Clinton, all predicting she would get 90 more electoral votes than she actually had pledged to her. They incorrectly predicted that Republican Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania would be defeated, which would have caused a 50-50 tie in the Senate when combined with the correct predictions of Democratic gains in Illinois and New Hampshire. Crystal Ball overestimated the number of the Democratic gains in the house, as they picked up 6 seats instead of 13. Additionally, they failed to predict Republicans retaining the governorship of Indiana and picking up the governorship of New Hampshire. They summarized by saying "...we were wrong. The Crystal Ball is shattered."
2018
The Crystal Ball's success rate was much higher in the 2018 midterms; they correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. Senate race, with the exception of Florida, where Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson narrowly lost to Republican Rick Scott. They slightly underestimated the number of Democratic gains in the U.S. House, as Democrats picked up a net of 40 seats, as opposed to the Crystal Ball's prediction of 34, while overestimating the number of governorships Democrats would gain, incorrectly predicting that Democrats would win Florida, Iowa and Ohio, while believing that Georgia would go to a runoff election. In fact, Republicans held all of the former three, and Republican candidate Brian Kemp narrowly won without a runoff in Georgia.
2020
In the
2020 presidential election
This national electoral calendar for 2020 lists the national/ federal elections held in 2020 in all sovereign states and their dependent territories. By-elections are excluded, though national referendums are included.
January
*5 January:
** ...
between incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden, the Crystal Ball fared much better than it did in 2016, correctly predicting 49 out of 50 states and all five congressional districts awarding electoral votes in the race. Their one error was in North Carolina, where they predicted a Biden win but Trump ended up narrowly hanging on to the state. The Crystal Ball was the only pundit to correctly predict that Trump would win Florida, and one of only a few to predict Biden winning Georgia. However, their success was limited to the presidential race and the gubernatorial elections (which were all called correctly), as the Crystal Ball did not foresee Susan Collins' upset reelection win in Maine, nor did it predict that Thom Tillis would be reelected in North Carolina. Their predictions for the House elections were even more erroneous. They incorrectly predicted that Democrats Kendra Horn ( OK-5), Joe Cunningham ( SC-1),
Abby Finkenauer
Abby Lea Finkenauer (born December 27, 1988) is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for Iowa's 1st congressional district from 2019 to 2021. She is a member of the Democratic Party.
Before being elected to Congress, Fin ...
Max Rose
Max N. Rose (born November 28, 1986) is an American military officer and politician who served as a United States representative from New York for a single term from 2019 to 2021. A moderate Democrat, he served on the committees for Homeland Se ...
Donna Shalala
Donna Edna Shalala ( ; born February 14, 1941) is an American politician and academic who served in the Carter and Clinton administrations, as well as in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2019 to 2021. Shalala is a recipient of the Preside ...
Ben McAdams
Benjamin Michael McAdams (born December 5, 1974) is an American politician and attorney who served as the U.S. representative from Utah's 4th congressional district from 2019 to 2021. He was the only Democratic member of Utah's congressional de ...
( UT-4) would retain their seats. All of them lost reelection instead. Also, they failed to foresee Republicans holding several competitive districts.