Precision bias also known as
numeracy bias is a form of
cognitive bias in which an evaluator of information commits a logical
fallacy as the result of confusing
accuracy and precision. More particularly, in assessing the merits of an argument, a measurement, or a report, an observer or assessor falls prey to precision bias when they believe that greater precision implies greater accuracy (i.e., that simply because a statement is precise, it is also true); the observer or assessor are said to provide
false precision
False precision (also called overprecision, fake precision, misplaced precision and spurious precision) occurs when numerical data are presented in a manner that implies better precision than is justified; since precision is a limit to accuracy ( ...
.
The
clustering illusion
The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable "streaks" or "clusters" arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of v ...
and the
Texas sharpshooter fallacy may both be treated as relatives of precision bias. In these related fallacies, precision is mistakenly considered evidence of causation, when in fact the clustered information may actually be the result of
randomness
In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual rand ...
.
See also
*
Accuracy and precision
External links
''Truth Versus Precision In Economics'', Thomas Mayer, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of California"Less Is More: Accuracy vs. Precision In Modeling", Susan Bachman et al.("Many modelers assume that building with more precision yields a more accurate model.")
References
Cognitive biases
Psychology
{{psych-stub