The 1995 Portuguese legislative election took place on 1 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic. The incumbent Prime Minister, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, decided not to run for a fourth consecutive term and the Social Democratic Party, choose Fernando Nogueira, one of Cavaco Silva's deputies, as leader and candidate for Prime Minister in a highly contested and bitter party congress in February 1995. But, the PSD was weakened by the end of the 10-year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva, amid scandals and the 1994 25 April bridge riots that shocked the country. During the campaign, Cavaco Silva toyed with the idea of running for the 1996 Presidential elections, which he ultimately did. The PS easily won the elections with 44% of the votes, against the 34% of the PSD, achieving their first general election victory since 1983 and after a decade in opposition, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs. António Guterres, elected as PS leader three years before, became Prime Minister. The Social Democratic Party suffered a heavy defeat, losing almost 50 seats and 17% of the votes. This election marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU) achieved only 15 MPs each, and for the first time ever the CDU failed to win a single district. Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980.

Voter turnout In political science, voter turnout is the participation rate (often defined as those who cast a ballot) of a given election. This can be the percentage of registered voters, eligible voters, or all voting-age people. According to Stanford Univ ...

stood at 66.3%, the lowest until then.

Background

Leadership changes

The four main parties all changed their leaders during the 1991-1995 legislature.

PS 1992 leadership election

The 1991 general election Socialist defeat, and the scale of it, surprised the party, with António Guterres actually saying he "was in shock". Then PS leader,

Jorge Sampaio Jorge Fernando Branco de Sampaio (; 18 September 1939 – 10 September 2021) was a Portuguese lawyer and politician who was the 18th president of Portugal from 1996 to 2006. A member of the Socialist Party, a party which he led between 1989 a ...

, faced a lot of criticisms for his strategy but, announced he was running for reelection as party leader. He would face António Guterres and Álvaro Beleza. A party leadership congress was called for February 1992, but, during the days prior to the start of the congress, Sampaio withdrew from the race and Guterres was easily elected as party leader: , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , António Guterres , align=center , WIN , align=right , , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Álvaro Beleza , align=right , , align=right , , - , bgcolor=, , align=left ,

, colspan="2" align=center , withdrew , - , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

CDS–PP 1992 leadership election

Then CDS leader,

Diogo Freitas do Amaral Diogo Pinto de Freitas do Amaral (; 21 July 1941 – 3 October 2019), known as Freitas do Amaral, was a Portuguese politician and law professor. He was Minister of Foreign Affairs from 10 January 1980 to 12 January 1981 and from 12 March 2005 t ...

, resigned from the leadership following the party's poor results in the 1991 general elections. A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1992 and 3 candidates were on the ballot: Manuel Monteiro, Basílio Horta, the party's candidate for the 1991 Presidential election and António Lobo Xavier. Manuel Monteiro was easily elected as leader: , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Manuel Monteiro , align=center , WIN , align=right , , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Basílio Horta , align=right , , align=right , , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , António Lobo Xavier , align=right , , align=right , , - , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

PCP 1992 leadership election

The historic

Portuguese Communist Party The Portuguese Communist Party ( pt, Partido Comunista Português, , PCP) is a communist, Marxist–Leninist political party in Portugal based upon democratic centralism. The party also considers itself patriotic and internationalist,Portu ...

leader,

Álvaro Cunhal Álvaro Barreirinhas Cunhal (; 10 November 1913 – 13 June 2005) was a Portuguese communist revolutionary and politician. He was one of the major opponents of the dictatorial regime of the '' Estado Novo''. He served as secretary-general of the P ...

, announced he would step down from the leadership of the party in late 1992.

Carlos Carvalhas Carlos Alberto do Vale Gomes Carvalhas, GCC (born in São Pedro do Sul, 9 November 1941) is a Portuguese economist and politician and former Secretary-General of the Portuguese Communist Party (1993–2004), succeeding the historical leader � ...

, the party's deputy leader was chosen as Cunhal's successor and was unanimously elected, but Cunhal remained a powerful figure within the party as a new body, the National Council, was created and Cunhal would lead it. , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=red, , align=left ,

, align=center , , align=right , 100.0 , - , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

PSD 1995 leadership election

After serving almost 10 years as

Prime Minister A prime minister, premier or chief of cabinet is the head of the cabinet and the leader of the ministers in the executive branch of government, often in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system. Under those systems, a prime minister i ...

, there were doubts if Cavaco Silva would run for another term, thus, creating a big "tabu" in Portuguese politics. Cavaco promissed a decision during the Spring of 1995, but in January 1995, he announced he would not run for another term as Prime Minister and PSD leader. This led the PSD to call a congress to elect a new leader. The congress become iconic for how tense and stormy it was, with strong accusations between several party members. Three candidates announced a run for the leadership:

Fernando Nogueira Joaquim Fernando Nogueira (born 26 March 1950), commonly known just as Fernando Nogueira, is a Portuguese people, Portuguese lawyer and former politician. Life before politics Fernando Nogueira was born in Matosinhos in 26 March 1950. He grad ...

, former defense minister,

José Manuel Durão Barroso José is a predominantly Spanish and Portuguese form of the given name Joseph. While spelled alike, this name is pronounced differently in each language: Spanish ; Portuguese (or ). In French, the name ''José'', pronounced , is an old vernacu ...

, foreign affairs minister, and

Pedro Santana Lopes Pedro Miguel de Santana Lopes GCC (; born 29 June 1956) is a Portuguese lawyer and politician, who is the current president of the Municipal Chamber of Figueira da Foz. He most notably served as prime minister of Portugal from 2004 to 2005. ...

, former culture secretary. Santana Lopes withdrew before the ballot, and Fernando Nogueira narrowly defeated Durão Barroso by just 33 votes. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=orange, , align=left ,

, align=right , 532 , align=right , 51.6 , - , bgcolor=orange, , align=left ,

, align=right , 499 , align=right , 48.4 , - , bgcolor=orange, , align=left ,

, colspan="2" align=center, withdrew , - , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 1,031 , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a

motion of no confidence A motion of no confidence, also variously called a vote of no confidence, no-confidence motion, motion of confidence, or vote of confidence, is a statement or vote about whether a person in a position of responsibility like in government or m ...

to be approved. The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the

district magnitude An electoral district, also known as an election district, legislative district, voting district, constituency, riding, ward, division, or (election) precinct is a subdivision of a larger state (a country, administrative region, or other poli ...

. The use of the

d'Hondt method The D'Hondt method, also called the Jefferson method or the greatest divisors method, is a method for allocating seats in parliaments among federal states, or in party-list proportional representation systems. It belongs to the class of highest ...

makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.Gallaher, Michael (1992).
Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities
For these elections, and compared with the 1991 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 6th legislature (1991–1995) and that also partook in the election:

Campaign period

Party slogans

Candidates' debates

The 1995 debates, between PSD leader

and PS leader António Guterres, were the first general election debates since the 1985 elections.

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1991-1995). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference. Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

National summary of votes and seats

, - , colspan=11, Portugal Parliament 1995

, - ! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left, Parties ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=Votes ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=% ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=± ! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center", MPs ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:right;" , MPs %/
votes % , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align=center,

1991 File:1991 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Boris Yeltsin, elected as Russia's first president, waves the new flag of Russia after the 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt, orchestrated by Soviet hardliners; Mount Pinatubo erupts in the Phi ...

! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align=center, 1995 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=± ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=% ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=± , - , , 2,583,755, , 43.76, , 14.7, , 72, , 112, , 40, , 48.70, , 17.4, , 1.11 , - , , 2,014,589, , 34.12, , 16.5, , 135, , 88, , 47, , 38.26, , 20.4, , 1.12 , - , , 534,470, , 9.05, , 4.7, , 5, , 15, , 10, , 6.52, , 4.3, , 0.72 , - , , 506,157, , 8.57, , 0.2, , 17, , 15, , 2, , 6.52, , 0.9, , 0.76 , - , , 41,137, , 0.70, , 0.2, , 0, , 0, , 0, , 0.00, , 0.0, , 0.0 , - , , 37,638, , 0.64, , 0.5, , 0, , 0, , 0, , 0.00, , 0.0, , 0.0 , - , style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#E2062C align="center" , , align=left, People's Democratic Union , 33,876, , 0.57, , 0.5, , 0, , 0, , 0, , 0.00, , 0.0, , 0.0 , - , style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#000080 align="center" , , align=left, National Solidarity , 12,613, , 0.21, , 1.5, , 1, , 0, , 1, , 0.00, , 0.4, , 0.0 , - , , 8,279, , 0.14, , , , , , 0, , , , 0.00, , , , 0.0 , - , , 8,235, , 0.14, , , , , , 0, , , , 0.00, , , , 0.0 , - , / , 5,932, , 0.10, , , , , , 0, , , , 0.00, , , , 0.0 , - , , 2,544, , 0.04, , , , , , 0, , , , 0.00, , , , 0.0 , - , , 2,536, , 0.04, , 0.2, , 0, , 0, , 0, , 0.00, , 0.0, , 0.0 , - , colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9", Total valid , width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 5,791,761 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 98.08 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 0.0 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 230 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 230 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 0 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 100.00 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 0.0 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", — , - , colspan=2, Blank ballots , 45,793, , 0.78, , 0.0, , colspan=6 rowspan=4, , - , colspan=2, Invalid ballots , 67,300, , 1.14, , 0.0 , - , colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9", Total , width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 5,904,854 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", 100.00 , width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9", , - , colspan=2, Registered voters/turnout , , 8,906,608, , 66.30, , 1.5 , - , colspan=11 align=left , Source
Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Distribution by constituency

, - class="unsortable" !rowspan=2, Constituency!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S !rowspan=2, Total
S , - class="unsortable" style="text-align:center;" !colspan=2 , PS !colspan=2 ,

PSD PSD may refer to: Educational bodies * Pennsylvania School for the Deaf, a Pre-K to 12th grade school for Deaf and Hard of Hearing students, located in the Germantown section of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania * Philippine School Doha, a Filipino scho ...

!colspan=2 , CDS–PP !colspan=2 , CDU , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Azores ) , motto =( en, "Rather die free than subjected in peace") , anthem= ( en, "Anthem of the Azores") , image_map=Locator_map_of_Azores_in_EU.svg , map_alt=Location of the Azores within the European Union , map_caption=Location of the Azores wi ...

, 37.6 , 2 , style="background:; color:white;", 47.8 , 3 , 9.4 , - , 1.8 , - , 5 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Aveiro , 40.2 , 6 , style="background:; color:white;", 41.2 , 6 , 12.6 , 2 , 2.7 , - , 14 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Beja , style="background:; color:white;", 45.8 , 2 , 15.7 , 1 , 3.6 , - , 29.2 , 1 , 4 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Braga Braga ( , ; cel-x-proto, Bracara) is a city and a municipality, capital of the northwestern Portuguese district of Braga and of the historical and cultural Minho Province. Braga Municipality has a resident population of 193,333 inhabitants (in ...

, style="background:; color:white;", 42.9 , 8 , 38.2 , 7 , 10.7 , 1 , 4.5 , - , 16 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Bragança , 40.3 , 2 , style="background:; color:white;", 44.8 , 2 , 9.4 , - , 1.9 , - , 4 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Castelo Branco , style="background:; color:white;", 53.2 , 3 , 32.1 , 2 , 7.2 , - , 5.3 , - , 5 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Coimbra Coimbra (, also , , or ) is a city and a municipality in Portugal. The population of the municipality at the 2011 census was 143,397, in an area of . The fourth-largest urban area in Portugal after Lisbon, Porto, and Braga, it is the largest cit ...

, style="background:; color:white;", 49.1 , 6 , 34.5 , 4 , 7.1 , - , 5.1 , - , 10 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Évora Évora ( , ) is a city and a municipality in Portugal. It has 53,591 inhabitants (2021), in an area of 1307.08 km2. It is the historic capital of the Alentejo and serves as the seat of the Évora District. Due to its well-preserved old ...

, style="background:; color:white;", 42.6 , 2 , 20.2 , 1 , 5.2 , - , 26.9 , 1 , 4 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Faro , style="background:; color:white;", 49.6 , 5 , 29.2 , 3 , 8.3 , - , 7.8 , - , 8 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Guarda , style="background:; color:white;", 43.7 , 2 , 39.9 , 2 , 9.9 , - , 2.3 , - , 4 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Leiria , 36.7 , 4 , style="background:; color:white;", 43.3 , 5 , 11.4 , 1 , 4.5 , - , 10 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Lisbon , style="background:; color:white;", 44.3 , 24 , 29.0 , 15 , 9.4 , 5 , 12.0 , 6 , 50 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Madeira , 32.0 , 2 , style="background:; color:white;", 46.1 , 3 , 12.9 , - , 1.3 , - , 5 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Portalegre , style="background:; color:white;", 50.5 , 2 , 23.4 , 1 , 6.3 , - , 14.0 , - , 3 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Porto Porto or Oporto () is the second-largest city in Portugal, the capital of the Porto District, and one of the Iberian Peninsula's major urban areas. Porto city proper, which is the entire municipality of Porto, is small compared to its metropol ...

, style="background:; color:white;", 46.7 , 18 , 36.4 , 14 , 7.8 , 3 , 6.0 , 2 , 37 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Santarém , style="background:; color:white;", 45.8 , 5 , 31.0 , 3 , 8.7 , 1 , 9.5 , 1 , 10 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Setúbal Setúbal (, , ; cel-x-proto, Caetobrix) is a city and a municipality in Portugal. The population in 2014 was 118,166, occupying an area of . The city itself had 89,303 inhabitants in 2001. It lies within the Lisbon metropolitan area. In the ti ...

, style="background:; color:white;", 44.9 , 9 , 18.4 , 3 , 7.2 , 1 , 23.8 , 4 , 17 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Viana do Castelo Viana do Castelo () is a municipality and seat of the district of Viana do Castelo in the Norte Region of Portugal. The population in 2011 was 88,725, in an area of 319.02 km². The urbanized area of the municipality, comprising the city, ...

, 38.8 , 3 , style="background:; color:white;", 42.1 , 3 , 11.3 , - , 4.6 , - , 6 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Vila Real Vila Real () is the capital and largest city of the Vila Real District, in the North region. It is also the seat of the Douro intermunicipal community and of the Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro historical province. The Vila Real municipality cover ...

, 40.0 , 2 , style="background:; color:white;", 46.0 , 3 , 7.8 , - , 1.9 , - , 5 , - , style="text-align:left;" ,

Viseu Viseu () is a city and municipality in the Centro Region of Portugal and the capital of the district of the same name, with a population of 100,000 inhabitants, and center of the Viseu Dão Lafões intermunipical community, with 267,633 inhabi ...

, 38.4 , 4 , style="background:; color:white;", 44.3 , 4 , 11.5 , 1 , 1.8 , - , 9 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Europe , style="background:; color:white;", 35.1 , 1 , 33.8 , 1 , 4.4 , - , 6.4 , - , 2 , - , style="text-align:left;" , Outside Europe , 12.8 , - , style="background:; color:white;", 69.3 , 2 , 3.8 , - , 1.2 , - , 2 , - , - class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9" , style="text-align:left;" , Total , style="background:; color:white;", 43.8 , 112 , 34.1 , 88 , 9.1 , 15 , 8.6 , 15 , 230 , - , colspan=10 style="text-align:left;" , Source
Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Legislativas portuguesas de 1995 (Mapa).png, Most voted political force by

municipality A municipality is usually a single administrative division having corporate status and powers of self-government or jurisdiction as granted by national and regional laws to which it is subordinate. The term ''municipality'' may also mean the go ...

Notes

References

External links

Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Centro de Estudos do Pensamento Político