Patrick Minford
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Anthony Patrick Leslie Minford (born 17 May 1943) is a British macroeconomist who is professor of applied economics at Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, a position he has held since 1997. He was Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at the
University of Liverpool , mottoeng = These days of peace foster learning , established = 1881 – University College Liverpool1884 – affiliated to the federal Victoria Universityhttp://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukla/2004/4 University of Manchester Act 200 ...
from 1976 to 1997. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the Economists for Brexit group which, in opposition to the consensus view of economists, advocated the UK leaving the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been de ...
.


Early career

Born in Shrewsbury, Minford was educated at Horris Hill School,
Winchester College Winchester College is a public school (fee-charging independent day and boarding school) in Winchester, Hampshire, England. It was founded by William of Wykeham in 1382 and has existed in its present location ever since. It is the oldest of ...
, Balliol College, Oxford (BA), and the
London School of Economics The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) is a public university, public research university located in London, England and a constituent college of the federal University of London. Founded in 1895 by Fabian Society members Sidn ...
(MSc; PhD). He is the elder brother of
John Minford John Minford (born 22 June 1946) is a British sinologist and literary translator. He is primarily known for his translation of Chinese classics such as 40 chapters of '' The Story of the Stone'', ''The Art of War'', the ''I Ching'' and the ''Tao ...
, who is an academic and translator of Classical Chinese. He worked at the
Ministry of Overseas Development , type = Department , logo = DfID.svg , logo_width = 180px , logo_caption = , picture = File:Admiralty Screen (411824276).jpg , picture_width = 180px , picture_caption = Department for International Development (London office) (far right ...
and then as an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance of
Malawi Malawi (; or aláwi Tumbuka: ''Malaŵi''), officially the Republic of Malawi, is a landlocked country in Southeastern Africa that was formerly known as Nyasaland. It is bordered by Zambia to the west, Tanzania to the north and northeas ...
. He then took a position as an economic adviser to
HM Treasury His Majesty's Treasury (HM Treasury), occasionally referred to as the Exchequer, or more informally the Treasury, is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for developing and executing the government's public finance policy and ...
's External Division. He was appointed as economics fellow at
Manchester University , mottoeng = Knowledge, Wisdom, Humanity , established = 2004 – University of Manchester Predecessor institutions: 1956 – UMIST (as university college; university 1994) 1904 – Victoria University of Manchester 1880 – Victoria Univer ...
in 1974, becoming editor at the ''
National Institute of Economic and Social Research The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), established in 1938, is Britain's oldest independent economic research institute. The institute is a London-based independent UK registered charity that carries out academic researc ...
'' in 1975, where he began to build the so-called Liverpool Model with Kent Matthews.


Academic research

Minford and his research team at the University of Liverpool created the Liverpool Model, the first operational
rational expectations In economics, "rational expectations" are model-consistent expectations, in that agents inside the model are assumed to "know the model" and on average take the model's predictions as valid. Rational expectations ensure internal consistency i ...
model of any economy. This work was concurrent with the early efforts of Fair and Anderson to simulate large nonlinear rational expectations models; it was the first to apply the extended path algorithm (see Fair and Taylor) to a full macro model estimated under rational expectations; and was at the forefront of what came to be known as the 'rational expectations revolution'. At this time
adaptive expectations In economics, adaptive expectations is a hypothesized process by which people form their expectations about what will happen in the future based on what has happened in the past. For example, if people want to create an expectation of the inflatio ...
was the dominant model of expectations formation and rational expectations was greeted with incredulity. Other work focused on the exchange rate, carrying out model simulations to evaluate the role of floating versus various fixed rate proposals. More recently, work by Minford and co-authors at Cardiff has focused on indirect inference methods and numerous applied studies of
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) is a macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as we ...
(DSGE) models. These examine modern controversies including bank regulation, quantitative easing, and monetary policy more generally. Recent monetary policy proposals suggested by this research are the introduction of price level targeting and nominal GDP targeting.


Policy impact

Minford gained prominence in 1981 when 364 leading economists published a statement criticising
Margaret Thatcher Margaret Hilda Thatcher, Baroness Thatcher (; 13 October 19258 April 2013) was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1979 to 1990 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 1975 to 1990. She was the first female British prime ...
's economic policies; Minford replied by defending the Government in ''
The Times ''The Times'' is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its sister paper '' The Sunday Times'' (f ...
''. Thatcher subsequently wrote a letter to Minford to congratulate him. Minford was a supporter of the theories of
Milton Friedman Milton Friedman (; July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006) was an American economist and statistician who received the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his research on consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and the ...
, a prominent member of the
Mont Pelerin Society The Mont Pelerin Society (MPS) is an international organization composed of economists, philosophers, historians, intellectuals and business leaders.Michael Novak, 'The Moral Imperative of a Free Economy', in '' The 4% Solution: Unleashing the E ...
(MPS) founded in 1947 by a group of 36 scholars meeting in Mont Pelerin, Switzerland. Rational expectations work at Liverpool was used to help craft 1980s Conservative Government policies on inflation (UK monetarism and its link with fiscal policy). Work by Minford's team at Liverpool was also influential on unemployment policy, especially labour market liberalisation, where the Liverpool Model was the first model to develop a 'supply side' designed to explain the underlying trend or 'natural' unemployment rate. Work by Minford’s Liverpool team on exchange rates was influential in the 1990s Exchange Rate Mechanism debate and the 2000s debate over joining the euro. Minford was against
Nigel Lawson Nigel Lawson, Baron Lawson of Blaby, (born 11 March 1932) is a British Conservative Party politician and journalist. He was a Member of Parliament representing the constituency of Blaby from 1974 to 1992, and served in the cabinet of Margaret ...
's policy of
pound sterling Sterling (abbreviation: stg; Other spelling styles, such as STG and Stg, are also seen. ISO code: GBP) is the currency of the United Kingdom and nine of its associated territories. The pound ( sign: £) is the main unit of sterling, and ...
shadowing the
Deutschmark The Deutsche Mark (; English: ''German mark''), abbreviated "DM" or "D-Mark" (), was the official currency of West Germany from 1948 until 1990 and later the unified Germany from 1990 until the adoption of the euro in 2002. In English, it was ...
. He was also against Britain joining the European
Exchange Rate Mechanism The European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) is a system introduced by the European Economic Community on 1 January 1999 alongside the introduction of a single currency, the euro (replacing ERM 1 and the euro's predecessor, the ECU) as p ...
because he thought it was having a bad effect on recovering from
recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various ...
and keeping down interest rates. A confirmed eurosceptic, he is a supporter of the
Better Off Out Better Off Out (BOO) is the name of a non-party campaign that called for the United Kingdom (UK)'s withdrawal from the European Union (EU). It is run by The Freedom Association, a pressure group that describes itself as non-partisan, centre-ri ...
campaign to leave the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been de ...
because he believes that the net economic costs to Britain of its policies are substantial. He argues that they are in most respects contrary to free market principles and that British citizens had no power to alter them. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the Economists for Brexit group which supported the referendum campaign for the UK to leave the European Union. He believes that Brexit could increase GDP by 6.8%, and could reduce prices for British consumers. Minford favoured the
Community Charge The Community Charge, commonly known as the poll tax, was a system of taxation introduced by Margaret Thatcher's government in replacement of domestic rates in Scotland from 1989, prior to its introduction in England and Wales from 1990. It pr ...
or poll tax as a way of keeping down local government spending to levels chosen by local citizens. In 1988 he was appointed a board member of the
Merseyside Development Corporation The Merseyside Development Corporation was a central government-appointed Development Corporation set up in 1981 by Margaret Thatcher's government to regenerate the Mersey docks of Liverpool, Bootle, Wallasey and Birkenhead. It was one of two D ...
but resigned, saying it had a negative effect on job creation. He is on the advisory council of
Reform Reform ( lat, reformo) means the improvement or amendment of what is wrong, corrupt, unsatisfactory, etc. The use of the word in this way emerges in the late 18th century and is believed to originate from Christopher Wyvill's Association movement ...
.


In the media

Minford was interviewed about the rise of
Thatcherism Thatcherism is a form of British conservative ideology named after Conservative Party leader Margaret Thatcher that relates to not just her political platform and particular policies but also her personal character and general style of manag ...
for the 2006
BBC #REDIRECT BBC #REDIRECT BBC Here i going to introduce about the best teacher of my life b BALAJI sir. He is the precious gift that I got befor 2yrs . How has helped and thought all the concept and made my success in the 10th board exam. ...
...
TV documentary series '' Tory! Tory! Tory!'' Minford was also a guest at the funeral of Margaret Thatcher in 2013.


Honours

Minford was appointed
Commander of the Order of the British Empire The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire is a British order of chivalry, rewarding contributions to the arts and sciences, work with charitable and welfare organisations, and public service outside the civil service. It was established ...
in the 1996 New Year Honours for services to economics.


Publications

* Patrick Minford, ''Substitution Effects, Speculation and Exchange Rate Stability'' (1978). * Patrick Minford, ''Unemployment: Cause and Cure'' (1983). * Patrick Minford, ''Why there is no alternative'' (to Conservative economic theory), in ''Right Ahead'' newspaper published by the
Conservative Monday Club The Conservative Monday Club (usually known as the Monday Club) is a British political pressure group, aligned with the Conservative Party, though no longer endorsed by it. It also has links to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Ulster Unioni ...
, October 1985 Conservative Party Conference Issue. * Patrick Minford, ''Economic Strategy'', a Policy Paper for the Monday Club's Economics Policy Committee, September 1986. * Patrick Minford, ''The Housing Morass'' (1987). * Patrick Minford, ''Why we need bold tax cuts on 14 March'', Policy Paper for the Monday Club's Economic Policy Committee, March 1989. * Patrick Minford, ''Conservative Economic Strategies into the 90s'', in ''Right Ahead'' newspaper published by the Conservative Monday Club, October 1989 Conservative Party Conference Issue. * Patrick Minford, ''The Supply Side Revolution in Britain'' (1991). * Patrick Minford, ''Markets Not Stakes'' (1998). * Patrick Minford, ''Should Britain join the Euro? The Chancellor's Five Euro Tests'' (2002). * Patrick Minford, ''Should Britain leave the EU? An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship'' (2005).


References


External links


patrickminford.net
* ttps://web.archive.org/web/20050923133603/http://brugesgroup.com/mediacentre/speeches.live?article=155#patrick Speech to the Bruges Group {{DEFAULTSORT:Minford, Patrick 1943 births Living people People educated at Winchester College Alumni of Balliol College, Oxford Alumni of the London School of Economics Academics of the University of Liverpool Academics of Cardiff University Academics of Cardiff Business School 20th-century British economists 21st-century British economists Commanders of the Order of the British Empire Members of the Freedom Association