The National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to the

Director of National Intelligence The director of national intelligence (DNI) is a senior, cabinet-level United States government official, required by the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 to serve as executive head of the United States Intelligence Co ...

, bridges the

United States Intelligence Community United may refer to: Places * United, Pennsylvania, an unincorporated community * United, West Virginia, an unincorporated community Arts and entertainment Films * ''United'' (2003 film), a Norwegian film * ''United'' (2011 film), a BBC Two f ...

(IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts in

academia An academy (Attic Greek: Ἀκαδήμεια; Koine Greek Ἀκαδημία) is an institution of secondary education, secondary or tertiary education, tertiary higher education, higher learning (and generally also research or honorary membershi ...

and the

private sector The private sector is the part of the economy, sometimes referred to as the citizen sector, which is owned by private groups, usually as a means of establishment for profit or non profit, rather than being owned by the government. Employment The ...

. NIC documents and reports which are used by

policymaker Policy is a deliberate system of guidelines to guide decisions and achieve rational outcomes. A policy is a statement of intent and is implemented as a procedure or protocol. Policies are generally adopted by a governance body within an org ...

s, include the

National Intelligence Estimate National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on intelligence related to a particular national security issue. NIEs are p ...

and the Global Trends reports delivered every four years. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U.S. policy. One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president, which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and Inauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years. The Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the Intelligence Community. In 1997, the Office of the NIC Director released the first Global Trends report, "Global Trends 2010", and in March 2021, their most recent report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World".

Overview

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which was established in 1979, reports to the

. The NIC bridges the

(IC) with policy makers in the United States, according to a February 2, 2007 DNI report. The report combines "traditional national security challenges" with "social trends that have clear security implications". In 2011, NIC members included "18 senior analysts and national security policy experts", who were appointed by the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC support the work of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the

National Security Council A national security council (NSC) is usually an executive branch governmental body responsible for coordinating policy on national security issues and advising chief executives on matters related to national security. An NSC is often headed by a n ...

. Congress may at times request that the NIC prepare "specific estimates and other analytical products" to inform "consideration of legislation", according to a

Congressional Research Service The Congressional Research Service (CRS) is a public policy research institute of the United States Congress. Operating within the Library of Congress, it works primarily and directly for members of Congress and their committees and staff on a ...

(CRS) report. The NIC also "provides the U.S. intelligence community’s best judgments on crucial international issues". The NIC has a Chairman and Vice Chairman, as well as a Vice Chairman for Evaluation, a Director of Strategic Plans and Outreach, a Director of Analysis and Production Staff, a Special Adviser, and National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) and Deputy National Intelligence Officer for different subject matters including

Africa Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia in both cases. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area ...

East Asia East Asia is the eastern region of Asia, which is defined in both geographical and ethno-cultural terms. The modern states of East Asia include China, Japan, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan. China, North Korea, South Korea ...

Europe Europe is a large peninsula conventionally considered a continent in its own right because of its great physical size and the weight of its history and traditions. Europe is also considered a Continent#Subcontinents, subcontinent of Eurasia ...

Latin America Latin America or * french: Amérique Latine, link=no * ht, Amerik Latin, link=no * pt, América Latina, link=no, name=a, sometimes referred to as LatAm is a large cultural region in the Americas where Romance languages — languages derived ...

Near East The ''Near East''; he, המזרח הקרוב; arc, ܕܢܚܐ ܩܪܒ; fa, خاور نزدیک, Xāvar-e nazdik; tr, Yakın Doğu is a geographical term which roughly encompasses a transcontinental region in Western Asia, that was once the hist ...

South Asia South Asia is the southern subregion of Asia, which is defined in both geographical and ethno-cultural terms. The region consists of the countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.;;;;; ...

Russia Russia (, , ), or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. It is the largest country in the world, with its internationally recognised territory covering , and encompassing one-ei ...

and

Eurasia Eurasia (, ) is the largest continental area on Earth, comprising all of Europe and Asia. Primarily in the Northern and Eastern Hemispheres, it spans from the British Isles and the Iberian Peninsula in the west to the Japanese archipelag ...

. Issues include

economics Economics () is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interactions of economic agents and how economies work. Microeconomics anal ...

and global issues, science and technology, intelligence assurance, military issues, transnational threats, warning,

weapons of mass destruction A weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or any other weapon that can kill and bring significant harm to numerous individuals or cause great damage to artificial structures (e.g., buildings), natu ...

and

nuclear proliferation Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as " Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Wea ...

, and cyber. The first director of the NIC was Richard Lehman, (1979 – 1981) who served during the tenure of then President

Jimmy Carter James Earl Carter Jr. (born October 1, 1924) is an American politician who served as the 39th president of the United States from 1977 to 1981. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he previously served as th ...

. Avril Haines, was appointed as incumbent NIC director on January 21, 2021.

Global Trends reports

One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and Inauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years. While the Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the intelligence community, it is proscribed by law to not provide any policy recommendations. The goal of the report is to examine "longer-term impacts" of "current changes" on the "world of the future"—twenty years ahead. The first Global Trends report was released in 1997, and the most recent, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World'" was released in March 2021. The NIC's Strategic Futures Group, under the direction of Maria Langan-Riekhof, led the publication of the "Global Trends 2040" report, working with 18 organizations that make up the United States Intelligence Community. This includes the

National Security Agency The National Security Agency (NSA) is a national-level intelligence agency of the United States Department of Defense, under the authority of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The NSA is responsible for global monitoring, collecti ...

and C.I.A. Previous reports include "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress" in January 2017, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" in 2012, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future", "Global Trends 2010" in 1997, and "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts" in December 2000.

Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future

In December 2004, the NIC published a report on its 2020 Project, titled "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future". Developed in consultation with "non-governmental experts around the world," the report examined possible scenarios evolving out of global trends shaping international politics and economics. Particular emphasis was put on the increasing role of

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, most populous country, with a Population of China, population exceeding 1.4 billion, slig ...

and

India India, officially the Republic of India (Hindi: ), is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area, the List of countries and dependencies by population, second-most populous ...

on the global stage, as well as the evolution of

radical Islamic terrorism Islamic terrorism (also known as Islamist terrorism or radical Islamic terrorism) refers to terrorist acts with religious motivations carried out by fundamentalist militant Islamists and Islamic extremists. Incidents and fatalities f ...

worldwide. Considerations are made for the potential proliferation of

(WMD) and the use of

biological Biology is the scientific study of life. It is a natural science with a broad scope but has several unifying themes that tie it together as a single, coherent field. For instance, all organisms are made up of cells that process hereditary in ...

and chemical weapons in future terrorist attacks.

Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress

At the beginning the

Presidency of Donald Trump Donald Trump's tenure as the 45th president of the United States began with his inauguration on January 20, 2017, and ended on January 20, 2021. Trump, a Republican from New York City, took office following his Electoral College victory ...

in January 2017, the

Obama administration Barack Obama's tenure as the 44th president of the United States began with his first inauguration on January 20, 2009, and ended on January 20, 2017. A Democrat from Illinois, Obama took office following a decisive victory over Republican ...

released its report titled, "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress", which "highlighted the risk of a pandemic and the vast economic disruption it could cause."

Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

In their April 15, 2021 article about the March 2021 report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World", the ''New York Times'' editorial board cited experts in Washington saying "they do not recall a gloomier" NIC Global Trends report. The ''Times'' listed headings such as "Competitive Coexistence", "Separate Silos", "Tragedy and Mobilization", and "A World Adrift" and questions if we will heed the report's warnings "at a time when states and societies are turning inward and political discourse has become poisonous." According to the report, "Nationalism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups."

List of chairs

References

External links

NIC official websiteThe National Intelligence Council (NIC): Issues and Options for Congress
*

Global Trends reports

* 1997 * 2000 * 2004 * 2008 * 2012
NIC Global Trends 2030
* 2017 * 2021 {{Authority control Futures studies organizations Government agencies established in 1979 Intelligence analysis agencies United States intelligence agencies