Mexican oil boom
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The Mexican Oil Boom was an oil boom from 1977 to 1981 which eventually led to a disastrous crash that lasted for most of the 1980s, driving the economy to a payment default and a significant deficit correction as oil prices fell.


Pre-Boom period

Since 1954 and until 1971 the Mexican economy performed very consistently, averanging 6%
GDP Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold (not resold) in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is ofte ...
growth each year and 3%
inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduct ...
rate, allowing the country to sustain an exchange rate of 12.50 pesos per
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for 22 years (1954-1976). This period, called the "Mexican Economic Miracle" and "Stabilizing Development", consisted in an ISI model. By the late 1970s the economy faced certain limitations in the economic model, at the same time the
United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territori ...
were troubled with a rising
trade deficit The balance of trade, commercial balance, or net exports (sometimes symbolized as NX), is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period. Sometimes a distinction is made between a balance ...
, sparking an international financial period of uncertainty.
Mexico Mexico (Spanish: México), officially the United Mexican States, is a country in the southern portion of North America. It is bordered to the north by the United States; to the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; to the southeast by Guatema ...
opted out to put more public money and investment to sustain fast growth. This was fuelling inflation as government spending was fully financed with new printed money. A devaluation in 1976 caused some panic until Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) discovered the Cantarell Field, boosting perspectives to exploit the soaring oil prices and the government decided to invest and change the economic model.


Oil Boom era

Between 1977 and 1981 PEMEX oil production grew almost twofold from 1.086 million bbd to 2.313 million bbd*, and net exports 5-fold from 0.197 million bbd to 1.154 million bbd*, this led to a 4-year 9.1% average growth in the GDP, and even as inflation crept up higher from a high base above 20% yearly, the massive job creation and rapid wage pace kept the workers mood calm. The expansion was mostly financed by loans and foreign money, as cheap credits from private banks and a blind faith from financiers allowed big sums of money to be invested easily, at the same time a free spending public sector began to invest in nearly anything within the nation. This money was trickling down to the broader economy and the private sector, the most benefited sectors were Construction, Mining and Transport, whose companies depending on private consumer also where in the free spending party, as result consumer goods imports soared 4.4 times* in 1981 from their 1977 level.


Oil price drop and consequences

When the world economy was hard hit by the interest rates hike from
Paul Volcker Paul Adolph Volcker Jr. (September 5, 1927 – December 8, 2019) was an American economist who served as the 12th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. During his tenure as chairman, Volcker was widely credited with having ended th ...
in 1982 to stop inflation in the United States, those highly indebted nations like Mexico, which invested heavily to develop its field, were in crisis.
Interest In finance and economics, interest is payment from a borrower or deposit-taking financial institution to a lender or depositor of an amount above repayment of the principal sum (that is, the amount borrowed), at a particular rate. It is distin ...
rates went up dramatically at the same time oil demand and prices eased. The result was a gap of nearly 9% of the GDP in the
national budget A government budget is a document prepared by the government and/or other political entity presenting its anticipated tax revenues (Inheritance tax, income tax, corporation tax, import taxes) and proposed spending/expenditure (Healthcare, Educat ...
of 1982, turning Mexico in to default on their interest payments and finally signing up the commitments of the IMF, those financial commitments the government rejected back in 1976 when the fields were discovered. The effects of the budget cuts impacted the economy across the board, as the sale and
privatization Privatization (also privatisation in British English) can mean several different things, most commonly referring to moving something from the public sector into the private sector. It is also sometimes used as a synonym for deregulation when ...
of the assets in the economy and job cuts pushed thousands of people out of work, government payroll shrank, and the ongoing restructuring of the private and public economy to face the new realities derived a series of reforms, aiming a growth dependent on trade, private investment and a bulk of sectors, this was called to cut the importance of the oil for the macroeconomy, and its dominance on the
export An export in international trade is a good produced in one country that is sold into another country or a service provided in one country for a national or resident of another country. The seller of such goods or the service provider is an ...
earnings. Economic growth during the 1980s was nil, and the period is often called a "lost decade" for Mexico.


References

* The data was taken from Micheal Gavin, Inter-American Development Bank from the Working Paper series 314 called: Mexican Oil Boom 1977-1985 {{Financial bubbles 1980s economic history Economic history of Mexico Oil booms