Kevin Hassett
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Kevin Allen Hassett (born March 20, 1962) is an American
economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...
who is a former
Senior Advisor In some countries, a senior advisor (also spelt senior adviser, especially in the UK) is an appointed position by the Head of State to advise on the highest levels of national and government policy. Sometimes a junior position to this is called a N ...
and Chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisers The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is a United States agency within the Executive Office of the President established in 1946, which advises the President of the United States on economic policy. The CEA provides much of the empirical resea ...
in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019. He has written several books and coauthored ''
Dow 36,000 ''Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market'' is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett, in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly underva ...
'', published in 1999, which argued that the stock market was about to have a massive swing upward. Shortly thereafter, the
dot-com bubble The dot-com bubble (dot-com boom, tech bubble, or the Internet bubble) was a stock market bubble in the late 1990s, a period of massive growth in the use and adoption of the Internet. Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Compo ...
burst, causing a massive decline in stock market prices, though the Dow was soon to recover. It finally did reach 36,000 as the Covid pandemic receded in late 2021. Hassett has worked at the
American Enterprise Institute The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, known simply as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), is a center-right Washington, D.C.–based think tank that researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare. ...
, a
conservative Conservatism is a cultural, social, and political philosophy that seeks to promote and to preserve traditional institutions, practices, and values. The central tenets of conservatism may vary in relation to the culture and civilization i ...
think tank A think tank, or policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governmenta ...
. He was
John McCain John Sidney McCain III (August 29, 1936 – August 25, 2018) was an American politician and United States Navy officer who served as a United States senator from Arizona from 1987 until his death in 2018. He previously served two terms ...
's chief economic adviser in the 2000 presidential primaries, as well as economic adviser to the
2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...
campaign of
George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...
and
2008 File:2008 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Lehman Brothers went bankrupt following the Subprime mortgage crisis; Cyclone Nargis killed more than 138,000 in Myanmar; A scene from the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing; ...
campaign of McCain. He was an economic adviser on
Mitt Romney Willard Mitt Romney (born March 12, 1947) is an American politician, businessman, and lawyer serving as the junior United States senator from Utah since January 2019, succeeding Orrin Hatch. He served as the 70th governor of Massachusetts f ...
's 2012 presidential campaign. In the Trump administration, Hassett was the 29th Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from September 2017 to June 2019. He returned to the White House in 2020 to work on the administration's response to the
coronavirus pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified ...
. Hassett did not focus on public health policy, but rather influenced the administration's response from an economic angle amid lockdowns and social distancing. Hassett built a model that indicated that COVID-19 deaths would drop off to near zero by May 2020. Hassett's model contradicted assessments by public health experts, and was widely panned by academics and commentators.


Early life and education

Hassett is a native of
Greenfield, Massachusetts Greenfield is a city in and the county seat of Franklin County, Massachusetts, United States. Greenfield was first settled in 1686. The population was 17,768 at the 2020 census. Greenfield is home to Greenfield Community College, the Pioneer Val ...
, where he graduated from Greenfield High School. He received a B.A. in economics from
Swarthmore College Swarthmore College ( , ) is a Private college, private Liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Swarthmore, Pennsylvania. Founded in 1864, with its first classes held in 1869, Swarthmore is one of the earliest coeduca ...
and a Ph.D. in economics from the
University of Pennsylvania The University of Pennsylvania (also known as Penn or UPenn) is a private research university in Philadelphia. It is the fourth-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and is ranked among the highest-regarded universitie ...
under supervision of
Alan J. Auerbach Alan J. Auerbach (born in 1951) is an American economist. He is currently the director of the Robert D. Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance at the University of California, Berkeley. He received his undergraduate degree in economics and ...
.


Career

Hassett was an assistant professor of economics at
Columbia Business School Columbia Business School (CBS) is the business school of Columbia University, a Private university, private research university in New York City. Established in 1916, Columbia Business School is one of six Ivy League business schools and is one ...
from 1989 to 1993 and an associate professor there from 1993 to 1994. From 1992 to 1997, Hassett was an economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the
Federal Reserve Board of Governors The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, commonly known as the Federal Reserve Board, is the main governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It is charged with overseeing the Federal Reserve Banks and with helping implement the mon ...
. He served as a policy consultant to the
United States Treasury Department The Department of the Treasury (USDT) is the Treasury, national treasury and finance department of the federal government of the United States, where it serves as an United States federal executive departments, executive department. The departme ...
during the
George H. W. Bush George Herbert Walker BushSince around 2000, he has been usually called George H. W. Bush, Bush Senior, Bush 41 or Bush the Elder to distinguish him from his eldest son, George W. Bush, who served as the 43rd president from 2001 to 2009; pr ...
and
Bill Clinton William Jefferson Clinton ( né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. He previously served as governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and agai ...
administrations.Kevin Hassett curriculum vitae on AEI website


American Enterprise Institute

Hassett joined AEI as a resident scholar in 1997. He worked on tax policy, fiscal policy, energy issues, and investing in the stock market. He collaborated with
R. Glenn Hubbard Robert Glenn Hubbard (born September 4, 1958) is an American economist and academic. He served as the Dean of the Columbia University Graduate School of Business from 2004 to 2019, where he remains the Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and ...
on work on the
budget surplus A balanced budget (particularly that of a government) is a budget in which revenues are equal to expenditures. Thus, neither a budget deficit nor a budget surplus exists (the accounts "balance"). More generally, it is a budget that has no budget ...
,
income inequality There are wide varieties of economic inequality, most notably income inequality measured using the distribution of income (the amount of money people are paid) and wealth inequality measured using the distribution of wealth (the amount of we ...
, and tax reform. Hassett published papers and articles on capital taxation, the consistency of tax policy, returns on
energy conservation Energy conservation is the effort to reduce wasteful energy consumption by using fewer energy services. This can be done by using energy more effectively (using less energy for continuous service) or changing one's behavior to use less service (f ...
investments,
corporate tax A corporate tax, also called corporation tax or company tax, is a direct tax imposed on the income or capital of corporations or analogous legal entities. Many countries impose such taxes at the national level, and a similar tax may be imposed at ...
ation,
telecommunications Telecommunication is the transmission of information by various types of technologies over wire, radio, optical, or other electromagnetic systems. It has its origin in the desire of humans for communication over a distance greater than that fe ...
competition, the effects of taxation on wages,
dividend A dividend is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders. When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, it is able to pay a portion of the profit as a dividend to shareholders. Any amount not distributed is taken to be re-in ...
taxation, and
carbon Carbon () is a chemical element with the symbol C and atomic number 6. It is nonmetallic and tetravalent In chemistry, the valence (US spelling) or valency (British spelling) of an element is the measure of its combining capacity with o ...
taxes. In 2003, Hassett was named director of economic policy studies at AEI. Hassett wrote columns in newspapers like ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'', ''
The Washington Post ''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large nati ...
'', and ''
The Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...
''. He writes a monthly column for ''
National Review ''National Review'' is an American conservative editorial magazine, focusing on news and commentary pieces on political, social, and cultural affairs. The magazine was founded by the author William F. Buckley Jr. in 1955. Its editor-in-chief i ...
'' and, since 2005, a weekly column for
Bloomberg Bloomberg may refer to: People * Daniel J. Bloomberg (1905–1984), audio engineer * Georgina Bloomberg (born 1983), professional equestrian * Michael Bloomberg (born 1942), American businessman and founder of Bloomberg L.P.; politician and ma ...
. In 2007, Hassett argued that the United States was on the wrong side of the
Laffer curve In economics, the Laffer curve illustrates a theoretical relationship between rates of taxation and the resulting levels of the government's tax revenue. The Laffer curve assumes that no tax revenue is raised at the extreme tax rates of 0% and ...
in terms of corporate tax rates. Economists and commentators characterized a graph that he used to support his argument as deceptive.


''Dow 36,000''

Hassett is coauthor with
James K. Glassman James Kenneth Glassman (born January 1, 1947) served as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs from 2008-2009. He was, from 2009 to 2013, the founding executive director of the George W. Bush Institute, a public policy ...
of '' Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market''. It was published in 1999 before the dot-com bubble burst. The book's title was based on a calculation that, in the absence of the equity premium, stock prices would be approximately four times as high as they actually were. In its introduction, Glassman and Hassett wrote that the book "will convince you of the single most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: They are cheap... If you are worried about missing the market's big move upward, you will discover that it is not too late. Stocks are now in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground–to the neighborhood of 36,000 on the Dow Jones industrial average." The
Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Dow Jones, or simply the Dow (), is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity inde ...
closed at 10,273.00 on the day of the book's publication on October 1, 1999, peaked at 11,722.98 105 days later, then declined 37.8% through October 9, 2002.
Paul Krugman Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American economist, who is Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and a columnist for ''The New York Times''. In 2008, Krugman was th ...
argued on his faculty website that the book contained basic arithmetic errors and was "a very silly book" but regarded Hassett's role as co-author as a "youthful indiscretion." Statistician and blogger
Nate Silver Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight' ...
described the book as "charlatanic" and suggested on empirical grounds that the authors had failed to notice that at the time of writing stock prices were "as overvalued as at literally any time in American history".


Views on immigration

According to ''The New York Times'', Hassett's nomination by Trump to lead the Council of Economic Advisers was met with opposition by some anti-immigration groups such as
Breitbart News ''Breitbart News Network'' (known commonly as ''Breitbart News'', ''Breitbart'', or ''Breitbart.com'') is an American far-rightMultiple sources: * * * * * * * * * * * * syndicated news, opinion, and commentary website founded in mid-2007 b ...
, ''
American Renaissance The American Renaissance was a period of American architecture and the arts from 1876 to 1917, characterized by renewed national self-confidence and a feeling that the United States was the heir to Greek democracy, Roman law, and Renaissance hu ...
'', the
Center for Immigration Studies The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) is an anti-immigration think tank and a SPLC designated hate group. It favors far lower immigration numbers, and produces analyses to further those views. The CIS was founded by historian Otis L. Graha ...
. Hassett—"like most economists ... believes that immigration spurs economic growth" even as other economists such as George Borjas at Harvard have found that immigrants lower the wages of native-born workers who must compete against them. Prior to Hassett's nomination, President Trump "broke with recent tradition and removed the council's chairman from a cabinet-level position".


Chair of White House Council of Economic Advisors

On September 5, 2018, Hassett released new analysis indicating that real wage growth under Trump was higher than reported, despite figures indicating that wage growth had not picked up. On September 13, 2018, on an official visit to Ireland, when questioned if the U.S. considered
Ireland as a tax haven Ireland has been labelled as a tax haven or corporate tax haven in multiple financial reports, an allegation which the state has rejected in response. Ireland is on all academic " tax haven lists", including the , and tax NGOs. Ireland does no ...
, said that: "It's not Ireland's fault US tax law was written by someone on acid". Hassett had labeled Ireland as a
tax haven A tax is a compulsory financial charge or some other type of levy imposed on a taxpayer (an individual or legal entity) by a governmental organization in order to fund government spending and various public expenditures (regional, local, or n ...
on several interviews in August–December 2017, when advocating for the
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 The Act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to titles II and V of the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2018, , is a congressional revenue act of the United States originally introduced in Congress as the Tax Cuts and Jobs A ...
("TCJA"). In July 2018,
Seamus Coffey Seamus Coffey is an Irish economist and media contributor with a focus on the performance of the Irish economy and Irish macroeconomic and fiscal policy. He is a lecturer at University College Cork. He was chair of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Co ...
, Chairperson of the
Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Fiscal Council; ga, Comhairle Chomhairleach Bhuiséadach na hÉireann) is a non-departmental statutory body providing independent assessments and analysis of the Irish Government's fiscal stance, its economic and ...
and author of the Irish State's 2016 review of the ''Irish corporate tax code'' posted that Ireland could now see a "boom" in the ''onshoring'' of U.S. intellectual property, via the Irish ''
Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets The Double Irish arrangement was a base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) corporate tax avoidance tool used mostly by United States multinationals since the late 1980s to avoid corporate taxation on non-U.S. profits. It was the largest tax ...
'' (CAIA) BEPS tool which is enhanced by Hassett's TCJA legislation. In February 2019,
Brad Setser Brad W. Setser is an American economist and former staff economist at the United States Department of the Treasury. He worked at Roubini Global Economics Monitor ("RGE"), as Director of Global Research, where he co-authored the book "Bailouts o ...
from the
Council on Foreign Relations The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an American think tank A think tank, or policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, mi ...
, wrote a ''
New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
'' article highlighting the failings of Hassett's TCJA in addressing the use of tax havens by U.S. corporates and why the TCJA incentivized U.S. corporate use of tax havens. On June 2, 2019, it was announced that Hassett would be stepping down from his role within the coming weeks.


Return to the Trump administration

On March 20, 2020, it was announced that Hassett will be returning to the White House on a temporary basis to advise
President Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pe ...
on economic policy amid the
COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by a virus, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first known case was COVID-19 pandemic in Hubei, identified in Wuhan, China, in December ...
pandemic. On April 15, 2020, the Trump administration announced Hassett's appointment as a senior advisor. Hassett, who has no experience in infectious disease modeling, built a model that forecast a far lower coronavirus deaths than actually happened, and additional modeling provided grim prediction about the adverse economic effects, such as a 40% reduction in GDP and unemployment numbers in the tens of millions. Hassett's model indicated that coronavirus deaths would peak in mid-April, and subsequently drop off to near zero by May 15. Hassett's model contradicts assessments by public health experts. Within the administration, Hassett encouraged the administration to re-open the economy. In early-May 2020, Hassett said there might not be a need for more coronavirus economic relief, invoking the possibility that economies in nearly all states could be re-opened by the end of May. When Hassett's model was released to the public, it was widely criticized by academics and commentators.


Bibliography

* Hassett, Kevin. "Spending, Taxes and Certainty: A Road Map to 4%", in '' The 4% Solution: Unleashing the Economic Growth America Needs'', edited by Brendan Miniter. New York: Crown Business. 2012. *
Alan J. Auerbach Alan J. Auerbach (born in 1951) is an American economist. He is currently the director of the Robert D. Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance at the University of California, Berkeley. He received his undergraduate degree in economics and ...
and Kevin A. Hassett, eds. ''Toward Fundamental Tax Reform''. Washington: AEI Press, 2005. () * Kevin A. Hassett. ''Bubbleology: The New Science of Stock Market Winners and Losers''. New York: Crown Business, 2002. () * Kevin A. Hassett and
R. Glenn Hubbard Robert Glenn Hubbard (born September 4, 1958) is an American economist and academic. He served as the Dean of the Columbia University Graduate School of Business from 2004 to 2019, where he remains the Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and ...
, eds. ''Inequality and Tax Policy''. South Bend, Ind.: Washington: AEI Press, 2001. () * Kevin A. Hassett and R. Glenn Hubbard. ''Transition Costs of Fundamental Tax Reform''. Washington: AEI Press, 2001. () *
James K. Glassman James Kenneth Glassman (born January 1, 1947) served as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs from 2008-2009. He was, from 2009 to 2013, the founding executive director of the George W. Bush Institute, a public policy ...
and Kevin A. Hassett. '' Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market''. New York: Times Books, 1999. () * Kevin A. Hassett and R. Glenn Hubbard. ''The Magic Mountain: A Guide to Defining and Using a Budget Surplus''. New York: Free Press, 1999. () * Kevin A. Hassett. ''Tax Policy and Investment''. Washington: AEI Press, 1999. () *


See also

*
Base erosion and profit shifting Base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) refers to corporate tax planning strategies used by multinationals to "shift" profits from higher-tax jurisdictions to lower-tax jurisdictions or no-tax locations where there is little or no economic a ...
*
EU illegal State aid case against Apple in Ireland On 29 August 2016, after a two-year investigation, Margrethe Vestager of the European Commission announced: "Ireland granted illegal tax benefits to Apple". The Commission ordered Apple to pay €13 billion, plus interest, in unpaid I ...
*
Double Irish arrangement The Double Irish arrangement was a base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) corporate tax avoidance tool used mostly by United States multinationals since the late 1980s to avoid corporate taxation on non-U.S. profits. It was the largest tax ...
.


References


External links


Kevin Hassett bio at AEI
* * {{DEFAULTSORT:Hassett, Kevin 1962 births Living people 21st-century American economists American Enterprise Institute American political consultants Economists from Massachusetts Columbia University faculty People from Greenfield, Massachusetts Senior Advisors to the President of the United States Swarthmore College alumni Trump administration personnel University of Pennsylvania alumni Chairs of the United States Council of Economic Advisers