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The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research, advisory and
Each hype cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle.
The term "hype cycle" and each of the associated phases are now used more broadly in the
of the hype cycle, prominent among which are that it is not a cycle, that the outcome does not depend on the nature of the technology itself, that it is not scientific in nature, and that it does not reflect changes over time in the speed at which technology develops. Another is that it is limited in its application, as it prioritizes economic considerations in decision-making processes. It seems to assume that a business' performance is tied to the hype cycle, whereas this may actually have more to do with the way a company devises its branding strategy. A related criticism is that the "cycle" has no real benefits to the development or marketing of new technologies and merely comments on pre-existing trends. Specific disadvantages when compared to, for example, technology readiness level are: * The cycle is not scientific in nature, and there is no data or analysis that would justify the cycle. * With the (subjective) terms ''disillusionment'', ''enlightenment'' and ''expectations'' it cannot be described objectively or clearly where technology now really is. * The terms are misleading in the sense that one gets the wrong idea what they can use a technology for. The user does not want to be disappointed, so should they stay away from technology in the Trough of Disillusionment? * No action perspective is offered to move technology to a next phase. * This appears to be a very simplified impulse response of an elastic system representable by a differential equation. Perhaps more telling would be to formulate a system model with solutions conforming to observable behavior. An analysis of Gartner Hype Cycles since 2000 shows that few technologies actually travel through an identifiable hype cycle, and that in practice most of the important technologies adopted since 2000 were not identified early in their adoption cycles.
Hype Cycle Research Methodology
the official materials. {{DEFAULTSORT:Hype Cycle Diffusion Innovation economics Innovation Product development Product lifecycle management Science and technology studies Stage theories Sociology of culture Technological change Technology in society Technology assessment
The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research, advisory and information technology
Information technology (IT) is the use of computers to create, process, store, retrieve, and exchange all kinds of Data (computing), data . and information. IT forms part of information and communications technology (ICT). An information te ...
firm Gartner
Gartner, Inc is a technological research and consulting firm based in Stamford, Connecticut that conducts research on technology and shares this research both through private consulting as well as executive programs and conferences. Its client ...
to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies
Technology is the application of knowledge to reach practical goals in a specifiable and reproducible way. The word ''technology'' may also mean the product of such an endeavor. The use of technology is widely prevalent in medicine, science, ...
. The hype cycle claims to provide a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases. The model is not perfect and research so far shows possible improvements for the model.
Five phases
Each hype cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle.
The term "hype cycle" and each of the associated phases are now used more broadly in the marketing
Marketing is the process of exploring, creating, and delivering value to meet the needs of a target market in terms of goods and services; potentially including selection of a target audience; selection of certain attributes or themes to emph ...
of new technologies.
Hype in new media
Hype (in the more general media sense of the term "hype") plays a large part in the adoption ofnew media
New media describes communication technologies that enable or enhance interaction between users as well as interaction between users and content. In the middle of the 1990s, the phrase "new media" became widely used as part of a sales pitch for ...
. Analyses of the Internet in the 1990s featured large amounts of hype, and that created "debunking" responses. A longer-term historical perspective on such cycles can be found in the research of the economist Carlota Perez
Carlota Perez ( es, Carlota Pérez; born September 20, 1939, in Caracas) is a British-Venezuelan scholar specialized in technology and socio- economic development. She researches the concept of Techno-Economic Paradigm Shifts and the theory of ...
. Desmond Roger Laurence, in the field of clinical pharmacology
Clinical pharmacology has been defined as "that discipline that teaches, does research, frames policy, gives information and advice about the actions and proper uses of medicines in humans and implements that knowledge in clinical practice". Clinic ...
, described a similar process in drug development
Drug development is the process of bringing a new pharmaceutical drug to the market once a lead compound has been identified through the process of drug discovery. It includes preclinical research on microorganisms and animals, filing for re ...
in the seventies.
Criticisms
There have been numerous criticismsFirst published in the 2005 blog:of the hype cycle, prominent among which are that it is not a cycle, that the outcome does not depend on the nature of the technology itself, that it is not scientific in nature, and that it does not reflect changes over time in the speed at which technology develops. Another is that it is limited in its application, as it prioritizes economic considerations in decision-making processes. It seems to assume that a business' performance is tied to the hype cycle, whereas this may actually have more to do with the way a company devises its branding strategy. A related criticism is that the "cycle" has no real benefits to the development or marketing of new technologies and merely comments on pre-existing trends. Specific disadvantages when compared to, for example, technology readiness level are: * The cycle is not scientific in nature, and there is no data or analysis that would justify the cycle. * With the (subjective) terms ''disillusionment'', ''enlightenment'' and ''expectations'' it cannot be described objectively or clearly where technology now really is. * The terms are misleading in the sense that one gets the wrong idea what they can use a technology for. The user does not want to be disappointed, so should they stay away from technology in the Trough of Disillusionment? * No action perspective is offered to move technology to a next phase. * This appears to be a very simplified impulse response of an elastic system representable by a differential equation. Perhaps more telling would be to formulate a system model with solutions conforming to observable behavior. An analysis of Gartner Hype Cycles since 2000 shows that few technologies actually travel through an identifiable hype cycle, and that in practice most of the important technologies adopted since 2000 were not identified early in their adoption cycles.
Counter Arguments
* ''Not a cycle'': When thought of as a "lifecycle" or a repeating pattern among a population of technologies, and not a cycle for any one technology to repeat, this isn't much different from a lifecycle for a living thing that is born, progresses through stages of development and dies.See also
*AI winter
In the history of artificial intelligence, an AI winter is a period of reduced funding and interest in artificial intelligence research.Product lifecycle
In industry, Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is the process of managing the entire lifecycle of a product from its inception through the engineering, design and manufacture, as well as the service and disposal of manufactured products. PL ...
* Kondratiev wave
In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. The phenomenon is closely connected with the technology li ...
* Roy Amara
References
Further reading
*External links
Hype Cycle Research Methodology
the official materials. {{DEFAULTSORT:Hype Cycle Diffusion Innovation economics Innovation Product development Product lifecycle management Science and technology studies Stage theories Sociology of culture Technological change Technology in society Technology assessment