False precision (also called overprecision, fake precision, misplaced precision and spurious precision) occurs when numerical data are presented in a manner that implies better
precision
Precision, precise or precisely may refer to:
Science, and technology, and mathematics Mathematics and computing (general)
* Accuracy and precision, measurement deviation from true value and its scatter
* Significant figures, the number of digit ...
than is justified; since precision is a limit to
accuracy
Accuracy and precision are two measures of ''observational error''.
''Accuracy'' is how close a given set of measurements ( observations or readings) are to their ''true value'', while ''precision'' is how close the measurements are to each oth ...
(in the ISO definition of accuracy), this often leads to overconfidence in the accuracy, named
precision bias.
Overview
Madsen Pirie defines the term "false precision" in a more general way: when exact numbers are used for notions that cannot be expressed in exact terms. For example, "We know that 90% of the difficulty in writing is getting started." Often false precision is abused to produce an unwarranted confidence in the claim: "our mouthwash is twice as good as our competitor's".
In
science
Science is a systematic endeavor that Scientific method, builds and organizes knowledge in the form of Testability, testable explanations and predictions about the universe.
Science may be as old as the human species, and some of the earli ...
and
engineering
Engineering is the use of scientific principles to design and build machines, structures, and other items, including bridges, tunnels, roads, vehicles, and buildings. The discipline of engineering encompasses a broad range of more speciali ...
, convention dictates that unless a
margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the e ...
is explicitly stated, the number of
significant figures
Significant figures (also known as the significant digits, ''precision'' or ''resolution'') of a number in positional notation are digits in the number that are reliable and necessary to indicate the quantity of something.
If a number expres ...
used in the presentation of data should be limited to what is warranted by the precision of those data. For example, if an instrument can be read to tenths of a unit of measurement, results of calculations using data obtained from that instrument can only be confidently stated to the tenths place, regardless of what the raw calculation returns or whether other data used in the calculation are more accurate. Even outside these disciplines, there is a tendency to assume that all the non-zero digits of a number are meaningful; thus, providing excessive figures may lead the viewer to expect better precision than exists.
However, in contrast, it is good practice to retain more significant figures than this in the intermediate stages of a calculation, in order to avoid accumulated
rounding error
A roundoff error, also called rounding error, is the difference between the result produced by a given algorithm using exact arithmetic and the result produced by the same algorithm using finite-precision, rounded arithmetic. Rounding errors are d ...
s.
False precision commonly arises when high-precision and low-precision data are combined, and in
conversion of units
Conversion of units is the conversion between different units of measurement for the same quantity, typically through multiplicative conversion factors which change the measured quantity value without changing its effects.
Overview
The process ...
.
Examples
False precision is the gist of numerous variations of a joke which can be summarized as follows: A tour guide at a museum says a dinosaur skeleton is 100,000,005 years old, because an expert told him that it was 100 million years old when he started working there 5 years ago.
If a car's speedometer indicates the vehicle is travelling at 60 mph and that is converted to km/h, it would equal 96.5606 km/h. The conversion from the whole number in one system to the precise result in another makes it seem like the measurement was very precise, when in fact it was not.
Measures that rely on
statistical sampling, such as
IQ tests
An intelligence quotient (IQ) is a total score derived from a set of standardized tests or subtests designed to assess human intelligence. The abbreviation "IQ" was coined by the psychologist William Stern for the German term ''Intelligenzq ...
, are often reported with false precision.
[ Chapter 4. Much Ado about Practically Nothing]
See also
*
Limit of detection
*
Precision bias
*
Propagation of uncertainty
In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables' uncertainties (or errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables are the values of exp ...
*
Round-off error
*
Rounding
Rounding means replacing a number with an approximate value that has a shorter, simpler, or more explicit representation. For example, replacing $ with $, the fraction 312/937 with 1/3, or the expression with .
Rounding is often done to ob ...
*
Significant figures
Significant figures (also known as the significant digits, ''precision'' or ''resolution'') of a number in positional notation are digits in the number that are reliable and necessary to indicate the quantity of something.
If a number expres ...
References
{{DEFAULTSORT:False Precision
Arithmetic
Numerical analysis
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