Colin J. Campbell (24 July 1931 – 13 November 2022) was a British

petroleum geologist A petroleum geologist is an earth scientist who works in the field of petroleum geology, which involves all aspects of oil discovery and production. Petroleum geologists are usually linked to the actual discovery of oil and the identification of ...

who predicted that oil production would peak by 2007. He claimed the consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependency on

fossil fuel A fossil fuel is a hydrocarbon-containing material formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the remains of dead plants and animals that is extracted and burned as a fuel. The main fossil fuels are coal, oil, and natural gas. Fossil fuels ma ...

s for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. To deal with declining global oil production, he proposed the

Rimini protocol The Rimini Protocol is a proposal made by the geologist Colin Campbell. It is intended to stabilise oil prices and minimise the effects of peak oil. It is named after the XXIX. Annual Conference ''The Economics of the Noble Path: Fraternal Right ...

. Influential papers by Campbell include ''The Coming Oil Crisis'', written with

Jean Laherrère Jean H. Laherrère (* May 30, 1931) is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled ''The End of Cheap Oil''. Career Laherrère studied at the Ecole Polytechnique and ...

in 1998 and credited with convincing the

International Energy Agency The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organisation, established in 1974, that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the entire global energy sector, with a recent focus on curbing car ...

of the coming peak; and ''The End of Cheap Oil'', published the same year in ''

Scientific American ''Scientific American'', informally abbreviated ''SciAm'' or sometimes ''SA'', is an American popular science magazine. Many famous scientists, including Albert Einstein and Nikola Tesla, have contributed articles to it. In print since 1845, it ...

''. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, founded by Campbell in 2000, has been gaining recognition in the recent years. The association has organised yearly international conferences since 2002. The most recent conference of the USA chapter (ASPO-USA) was at the University of Texas in Austin, TX on 30 November and 1 December 2012.

Remarks

The most famous

peak oil Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; whil ...

petrogeologist is

M. King Hubbert Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was an American geologist and geophysicist. He worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geolo ...

, who predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970. US oil production peaked in 1970. Hubbert's theories, particularly his evaluation of oil availability in any given area reaching a peak, to be followed by inevitable and sometimes rapid decline, were expounded in his Hubbert peak theory, and became popular during the

1973 energy crisis The 1973 oil crisis or first oil crisis began in October 1973 when the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, proclaimed an oil embargo. The embargo was targeted at nations that had su ...

, and during the

1979 energy crisis The 1979 oil crisis, also known as the 1979 Oil Shock or Second Oil Crisis, was an energy crisis caused by a drop in oil production in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four pe ...

when even the United States Secretary of Energy,

James Schlesinger James Rodney Schlesinger (February 15, 1929 – March 27, 2014) was an American economist and public servant who was best known for serving as Secretary of Defense from 1973 to 1975 under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Prior to ...

announced, as he left his post that year, that 'Mid-East production is unlikely to expand much, if at all, and is unlikely to drop below current levels'. (Wall Street Journal 1979). In December 2000 Colin Campbell warned in a public lecture held at the Clausthal University of Technology that

'There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil. A stock market crash seems inevitable, as some investment managers are now telling us. The global market may collapse because of high transport costs and global recession. Self-sufficiency will become a priority.'

Current debate

Global oil discovery peaked in 1964, and since the early 1980s oil production has outpaced new discoveries. According to Campbell: * There are no new potential

oil field A petroleum reservoir or oil and gas reservoir is a subsurface accumulation of hydrocarbons contained in porous or fractured rock formations. Such reservoirs form when kerogen (ancient plant matter) is created in surrounding rock by the presen ...

s sufficiently large to reduce this future

energy crisis An energy crisis or energy shortage is any significant bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In literature, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, in particular, those that supply n ...

. * The reported oil reserves of many

OPEC The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, ) is a cartel of countries. Founded on 14 September 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela), it has, since 1965, been headqua ...

countries are inflated, to increase their quotas, or improve their chance of getting a loan from the

World Bank The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans and grants to the governments of low- and middle-income countries for the purpose of pursuing capital projects. The World Bank is the collective name for the Inte ...

. * The practice of gradually adding new discoveries to a country's list of ''proven reserves'', instead of all at once, artificially inflates the current rate of discovery. In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990s. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a "depletion midpoint."C.J. Campbell, ''Evolution of oil assessments''.
/ref> These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, "based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated." A 2007 study of oil depletion by the

UK Energy Research Centre The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and North ...

stated that Campbell failed to take into account future reserve growth in existing fields. The authors concluded that curve-fitting techniques, such as Campbell's, tended to underestimate ultimate recoverable reserves. The report cited Campbell's record of premature peak predictions, systematically shifting forward over time, as evidence that his methodology was flawed. The US Department of Energy report ''Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management'', often referred to as the ''Hirsch Report'', proposes an urgent mitigation approach to deal with the possibility of oil production going into decline in the immediate future. It states: "The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

Activities

Campbell had over 40 years of experience in the

oil industry The petroleum industry, also known as the oil industry or the oil patch, includes the global processes of exploration, extraction, refining, transportation (often by oil tankers and pipelines), and marketing of petroleum products. The larges ...

. He was educated at St Paul's School and

Wadham College, Oxford Wadham College () is one of the constituent colleges of the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom. It is located in the centre of Oxford, at the intersection of Broad Street and Parks Road. Wadham College was founded in 1610 by Dorothy ...

(BA Geology 1954, MA and DPhil 1957), and worked as a petroleum geologist in the field, as a manager, and as a consultant. He was employed by

Oxford University Oxford () is a city in England. It is the county town and only city of Oxfordshire. In 2020, its population was estimated at 151,584. It is north-west of London, south-east of Birmingham and north-east of Bristol. The city is home to the ...

Texaco Texaco, Inc. ("The Texas Company") is an American oil brand owned and operated by Chevron Corporation. Its flagship product is its fuel "Texaco with Techron". It also owned the Havoline motor oil brand. Texaco was an independent company unt ...

, British Petroleum,

Amoco Amoco () is a brand of fuel stations operating in the United States, and owned by BP since 1998. The Amoco Corporation was an American chemical and oil company, founded by Standard Oil Company in 1889 around a refinery in Whiting, India ...

, Shenandoah Oil,

Norsk Hydro Norsk Hydro ASA (often referred to as just ''Hydro'') is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, headquartered in Oslo. It is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world a ...

, and Petrofina, and worked with the Bulgarian and Swedish governments. His writing included two books and more than 150 papers. Later, he founded the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, was affiliated with

Petroconsultants Petroconsultants was an oil and gas exploration and scouting information company formed in 1968 in Geneva to take over the activities of Harry Wassall and Associates, which was founded in Havana in 1956. Petroconsultants collected information about ...

in Geneva, was a trustee of the

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity. The centre is working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil depletion and peak oil problem. I ...

in London. He conducted research on the

oil peak Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while ...

, and he also tried to build public awareness of the issue, which included lecturing extensively. He addressed a committee of the

British House of Commons The House of Commons is the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Like the upper house, the House of Lords, it meets in the Palace of Westminster in London, England. The House of Commons is an elected body consisting of 65 ...

, and officials from investment and automotive companies. He appeared in the documentary films ''

The End of Suburbia ''The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream'' is a 2004 documentary film concerning peak oil and its implications for the suburban lifestyle, written and directed by Toronto-based filmmaker Gregory Greene. Desc ...

'', '' Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash'', and ''Peak Oil – Imposed by Nature''.

Personal life

Campbell resided in Ballydehob, a small town in South West Cork, Ireland with his wife Bobbins. He died at his home in Ireland on 13 November 2022, at the age of 91.

Quotes

"But this peak has no real great significance, it is the perception and the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of the peak. That's really what matters." (speaking on the

phenomenon, from ''End of Oil'' (2005)) "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone." (on peak oil, in 2007)"World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists", ''The Independent'', 14 June 2007
/ref> "Banks had been lending more than they had on deposit assuming that tomorrow's growth was collateral for today's debt but failing to see that growth depends on growing, cheap, oil-based energy...So in short, Peak Oil means that debt goes bad." (speaking on the 2008 crash at the New Energy Era Forum, 8 May 2012)

References

External links

* Arrival of Peak Oil as an Historic Event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaiHXt1AtO0' (Sept. 2009 video interview with Colin Campbell by Dave Bowden, Oil Education TV / SustainableMedia.net) * Peak Oil: Off Limits to Government & Industry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSrxwO6i0A4' (Sept. 2009 video interview with Colin Campbell by Dave Bowden, Oil Education TV / SustainableMedia.net)

by Dr. Colin J. Campbell, at the Clausthal University of Technology, Dec. 2000.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO)
– official website
ASPO Ireland
(Colin Campbell's Office)
Colin J. Campbell
from the Coming Global Oil Crisis. 2004.
Colin Campbell interviewed
by Julian Darley. Global Public Media, 18 December 2002.
ASPO newsletter
by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
ASPO depletion profiles by country
by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.

by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
ASPO Lisbon Conference 2005

Speech by Dr. Colin J. Campbell
at 'Fuelling the Future' conference, in Kinsale, Ireland, June 2005.
Energy Bulletin

Peak Oil – A Turning Point for Mankind
Dr. Colin J. Campbell speaking at the New Energy Era Form, 8 May 2012 {{DEFAULTSORT:Campbell, Colin 1931 births 2022 deaths Alumni of Wadham College, Oxford 20th-century British geologists 21st-century British geologists People in the petroleum industry People educated at St Paul's School, London Scientists from Berlin