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Martingale (probability Theory)
In probability theory, a martingale is a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time, the conditional expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present value, regardless of all prior values. History Originally, '' martingale'' referred to a class of betting strategies that was popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins their stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double their bet after every loss so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. As the gambler's wealth and available time jointly approach infinity, their probability of eventually flipping heads approaches 1, which makes the martingale betting strategy seem like a sure thing. However, the exponential growth of the bets eventually bankrupts its users due to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about their behavior. Two major results in prob ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Continuous Time
In mathematical dynamics, discrete time and continuous time are two alternative frameworks within which variables that evolve over time are modeled. Discrete time Discrete time views values of variables as occurring at distinct, separate "points in time", or equivalently as being unchanged throughout each non-zero region of time ("time period")—that is, time is viewed as a discrete variable. Thus a non-time variable jumps from one value to another as time moves from one time period to the next. This view of time corresponds to a digital clock that gives a fixed reading of 10:37 for a while, and then jumps to a new fixed reading of 10:38, etc. In this framework, each variable of interest is measured once at each time period. The number of measurements between any two time periods is finite. Measurements are typically made at sequential integer values of the variable "time". A discrete signal or discrete-time signal is a time series consisting of a sequence of quantities ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Fair Coin
In probability theory and statistics, a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with probability 1/2 of success on each trial is metaphorically called a fair coin. One for which the probability is not 1/2 is called a biased or unfair coin. In theoretical studies, the assumption that a coin is fair is often made by referring to an ideal coin. John Edmund Kerrich performed experiments in coin flipping and found that a coin made from a wooden disk about the size of a crown and coated on one side with lead landed heads (wooden side up) 679 times out of 1000. In this experiment the coin was tossed by balancing it on the forefinger, flipping it using the thumb so that it spun through the air for about a foot before landing on a flat cloth spread over a table. Edwin Thompson Jaynes claimed that when a coin is caught in the hand, instead of being allowed to bounce, the physical bias in the coin is insignificant compared to the method of the toss, where with sufficient practice a coin c ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Random Walk
In mathematics, a random walk is a random process that describes a path that consists of a succession of random steps on some mathematical space. An elementary example of a random walk is the random walk on the integer number line \mathbb Z which starts at 0, and at each step moves +1 or −1 with equal probability. Other examples include the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas (see Brownian motion), the search path of a foraging animal, or the price of a fluctuating stock and the financial status of a gambler. Random walks have applications to engineering and many scientific fields including ecology, psychology, computer science, physics, chemistry, biology, economics, and sociology. The term ''random walk'' was first introduced by Karl Pearson in 1905. Lattice random walk A popular random walk model is that of a random walk on a regular lattice, where at each step the location jumps to another site according to some probability distr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Itō Process
Itō may refer to: *Itō (surname), a Japanese surname *Itō, Shizuoka, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan *Ito District, Wakayama Prefecture, Japan See also *Itô's lemma, used in stochastic calculus *Itoh–Tsujii inversion algorithm, in field theory *Itô calculus, an extension of calculus to stochastic processes, named after Kiyoshi Itô *Ito (other) *ITO (other) Ito may refer to: Places * Ito Island, an island of Milne Bay Province, Papua New Guinea * Ito Airport, an airport in the Democratic Republic of the Congo * Ito District, Wakayama, a district located in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan * Itō, Shizuo ..., for the three-letter acronym {{DEFAULTSORT:Ito es:Ito fr:Ito nl:Ito ja:いとう pt:Ito ru:Ито ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Girsanov Theorem
In probability theory, the Girsanov theorem tells how stochastic processes change under changes in measure. The theorem is especially important in the theory of financial mathematics as it tells how to convert from the physical measure which describes the probability that an underlying instrument (such as a share price or interest rate) will take a particular value or values to the risk-neutral measure which is a very useful tool for evaluating the value of derivatives on the underlying. History Results of this type were first proved by Cameron-Martin in the 1940s and by Igor Girsanov in 1960. They have been subsequently extended to more general classes of process culminating in the general form of Lenglart (1977). Significance Girsanov's theorem is important in the general theory of stochastic processes since it enables the key result that if ''Q'' is a measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to ''P'' then every ''P''-semimartingale is a ''Q''-semimartingale. St ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Indicator Function
In mathematics, an indicator function or a characteristic function of a subset of a set is a function that maps elements of the subset to one, and all other elements to zero. That is, if is a subset of some set , one has \mathbf_(x)=1 if x\in A, and \mathbf_(x)=0 otherwise, where \mathbf_A is a common notation for the indicator function. Other common notations are I_A, and \chi_A. The indicator function of is the Iverson bracket of the property of belonging to ; that is, :\mathbf_(x)= \in A For example, the Dirichlet function is the indicator function of the rational numbers as a subset of the real numbers. Definition The indicator function of a subset of a set is a function \mathbf_A \colon X \to \ defined as \mathbf_A(x) := \begin 1 ~&\text~ x \in A~, \\ 0 ~&\text~ x \notin A~. \end The Iverson bracket provides the equivalent notation, \in A/math> or to be used instead of \mathbf_(x)\,. The function \mathbf_A is sometimes denoted , , , or even just . Not ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lp Space
In mathematics, the spaces are function spaces defined using a natural generalization of the -norm for finite-dimensional vector spaces. They are sometimes called Lebesgue spaces, named after Henri Lebesgue , although according to the Bourbaki group they were first introduced by Frigyes Riesz . spaces form an important class of Banach spaces in functional analysis, and of topological vector spaces. Because of their key role in the mathematical analysis of measure and probability spaces, Lebesgue spaces are used also in the theoretical discussion of problems in physics, statistics, economics, finance, engineering, and other disciplines. Applications Statistics In statistics, measures of central tendency and statistical dispersion, such as the mean, median, and standard deviation, are defined in terms of metrics, and measures of central tendency can be characterized as solutions to variational problems. In penalized regression, "L1 penalty" and "L2 penalty" refer ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Measurable Function
In mathematics and in particular measure theory, a measurable function is a function between the underlying sets of two measurable spaces that preserves the structure of the spaces: the preimage of any measurable set is measurable. This is in direct analogy to the definition that a continuous function between topological spaces preserves the topological structure: the preimage of any open set is open. In real analysis, measurable functions are used in the definition of the Lebesgue integral. In probability theory, a measurable function on a probability space is known as a random variable. Formal definition Let (X,\Sigma) and (Y,\Tau) be measurable spaces, meaning that X and Y are sets equipped with respective \sigma-algebras \Sigma and \Tau. A function f:X\to Y is said to be measurable if for every E\in \Tau the pre-image of E under f is in \Sigma; that is, for all E \in \Tau f^(E) := \ \in \Sigma. That is, \sigma (f)\subseteq\Sigma, where \sigma (f) is the σ-algebr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Index Set
In mathematics, an index set is a set whose members label (or index) members of another set. For instance, if the elements of a set may be ''indexed'' or ''labeled'' by means of the elements of a set , then is an index set. The indexing consists of a surjective function from onto , and the indexed collection is typically called an '' (indexed) family'', often written as . Examples *An enumeration of a set gives an index set J \sub \N, where is the particular enumeration of . *Any countably infinite set can be (injectively) indexed by the set of natural numbers \N. *For r \in \R, the indicator function on is the function \mathbf_r\colon \R \to \ given by \mathbf_r (x) := \begin 0, & \mbox x \ne r \\ 1, & \mbox x = r. \end The set of all such indicator functions, \_ , is an uncountable set indexed by \mathbb. Other uses In computational complexity theory and cryptography Cryptography, or cryptology (from grc, , translit=kryptós "hidden, secret"; and ''grap ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Adapted Process
In the study of stochastic processes, an adapted process (also referred to as a non-anticipating or non-anticipative process) is one that cannot "see into the future". An informal interpretation is that ''X'' is adapted if and only if, for every realisation and every ''n'', ''Xn'' is known at time ''n''. The concept of an adapted process is essential, for instance, in the definition of the Itō integral, which only makes sense if the integrand is an adapted process. Definition Let * (\Omega, \mathcal, \mathbb) be a probability space; * I be an index set with a total order \leq (often, I is \mathbb, \mathbb_0, , T/math> or filtration of the sigma algebra \mathcal; * (S,\Sigma) be a measurable space, the ''state space''; * X: I \times \Omega \to S be a stochastic process. The process X is said to be adapted to the filtration \left(\mathcal_i\right)_ if the random variable X_i: \Omega \to S is a (\mathcal_i, \Sigma)-measurable function for each i \in I. Examples Consider a stochasti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Space
In probability theory, a probability space or a probability triple (\Omega, \mathcal, P) is a mathematical construct that provides a formal model of a random process or "experiment". For example, one can define a probability space which models the throwing of a die. A probability space consists of three elements:Stroock, D. W. (1999). Probability theory: an analytic view. Cambridge University Press. # A sample space, \Omega, which is the set of all possible outcomes. # An event space, which is a set of events \mathcal, an event being a set of outcomes in the sample space. # A probability function, which assigns each event in the event space a probability, which is a number between 0 and 1. In order to provide a sensible model of probability, these elements must satisfy a number of axioms, detailed in this article. In the example of the throw of a standard die, we would take the sample space to be \. For the event space, we could simply use the set of all subsets of the sampl ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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