Economic interdependence and conflict
International relations scholars are divided as to whether economic interdependence contributes to peace or conflict. Statistical analyses indicate that economic interdependence can lead both to war and peace, with various factors that condition the effect of interdependence. Dale C. Copeland argues that expectations about future trade affects whether economic interdependence is likely to lead to peace or conflict; when leaders do not believe that future trade patterns will be favorable, they are more likely to engage in conflict and competition than when they believe that future trade patterns will be beneficial to their state. According to Henry Farrell andApproaches to measure international economic interdependence
As economic interdependence may be perceived differently depending on the scale and context involved, various methods are used to measure the degree of interdependence between and within countries. The below documents some of the approaches that have been adopted to measure the degree of economic interdependence.Hierarchical Network Approach
This approach is based on the precept that globalisation increases the integration and interdependence between the economy of different countries. The Hierarchical Network Approach is used to measure economic interdependence by analysing growth clusters and cross-country liaison, and business cycle synchronisations. The cross-country liaison or economic interaction between countries or states is most commonly measured by Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient. The correlation matrix is a methodical method which exhibits the mutual relationship of countries over a specified time period. To measure growth clusters, economists need to get hold and analyse changes in GDP for each country over a specified period of time. The relationship between interdependence and business cycles is calculated by the distance correlation matrices over a period of 10 years. The combination of results from the data presents the economic interdependence of countries over time. By this measure, trends from the data has shown that the degree of world economic interdependence is growing due to globalisation.Geopolitical Approach
Another way of measuring the degree of economic interdependence is via a geopolitical approach, which is based on the presumption that economic interdependence may exist because states trade with each other to obtain strategic goods that are needed for national industry and defence. The geopolitical approach is based on both vertical and horizontal interdependence. Vertical interdependence measures how a change in the price of a good in Country X will affect Country Y (or how changes in price in State A will affect State B), whilst horizontal interdependence calculates the degree of bilateral trade, transactions and investment involved between both countries. Both vertical and horizontal interdependence data must be used to measure economic interdependence. This is because that in the given situation that there is a high correlation of vertical interdependence between country X and country Y, if there is no horizontal interdependence (transaction of goods, services or capitals) between both countries, country X and country Y will have little/no economic interdependence. Vertical interdependence without horizontal may arise due to other factors such as changes in worldwide economic forces. For instance, consider the case of trade and the flow of factors among Arab states (which is typically very limited); whilst we observe parallel movements in factor prices, this may just be due to the effect of global market forces that affect all economies in the same fashion.Exit Model Approach
As suggested by Baldwin and Crescenzi, economic interdependence may be modelled as a function of potential economic exit costs, which may deter, motivate or fail to affect political conflict. A key challenge that is faced is the need for a valid method to measure exit costs and interdependence, whilst maintaining a systematic approach with many countries involved (a large-n analysis). Crescenzi addresses this by interacting bilateral price elasticity data with trade activity data, to represent both market structure and the intensity of potential economic exit costs. Whilst the price elasticity data reflects one state's ability to react to economic change that is initiated by another state, its interaction with trade share data is vital as it indicates how intense the interdependent relationship is relative to each state's economy and trade portfolio within the global market. Given these two components, Crescenzi furthers his study by explaining the relationship between economic interdependence and its association with political conflict.References
{{DEFAULTSORT:Economic Interdependence International macroeconomics