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Warren J. Mitofsky (September 17, 1934 – September 1, 2006) was an American political pollster. Mitofsky graduated in 1957 from
Guilford College Guilford College is a private liberal arts college in Greensboro, North Carolina. Guilford has both traditional students and students who attend its Center for Continuing Education (CCE). Founded in 1837 by members of the Religious Society of ...
and was executive director of the
CBS News CBS News is the news division of the American television and radio service CBS. CBS News television programs include the ''CBS Evening News'', '' CBS Mornings'', news magazine programs '' CBS News Sunday Morning'', '' 60 Minutes'', and '' 48 ...
election and survey unit from 1967 to 1990. He also previously served as an executive producer of CBS election night broadcasts. Prior to CBS, Mitofsky worked with the
Census Bureau The United States Census Bureau (USCB), officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System, responsible for producing data about the American people and economy. The Census Bureau is part of the ...
where he designed a number of surveys. Along with Joseph Waksberg, Mitofsky is credited with developing an efficient method of sampling telephone numbers using random digit dialing, which has since been widely adopted as a sampling method. In 1999, the
American Association for Public Opinion Research The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is a professional organization of more than 2,000 public opinion and survey research professionals in the United States and from around the world, with members from academia, media, gover ...
presented him with its lifetime achievement award for his "continuing concern for survey quality". Mitofsky is credited with having invented the
exit poll An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for ...
. Warren Mitofsky is listed among the United States Census Bureau's Notable Alumni In 1989 he was elected as a
Fellow of the American Statistical Association Like many other academic professional societies, the American Statistical Association (ASA) uses the title of Fellow of the American Statistical Association as its highest honorary grade of membership. The number of new fellows per year is limited ...
. In November 2004, Mitofsky was interviewed by PBS
NewsHour ''Newshour'' is BBC World Service's flagship international news and current affairs radio programme, which is broadcast twice daily: weekdays at 1400, weekends at 1300 and nightly at 2100 (UK time). Each edition lasts one hour. It consists of ...
regarding what went wrong with the accuracy of his exit polls for the 2004 U.S. presidential election. Early poll results were leaked which showed
John Kerry John Forbes Kerry (born December 11, 1943) is an American attorney, politician and diplomat who currently serves as the first United States special presidential envoy for climate. A member of the Forbes family and the Democratic Party, he p ...
leading George W. Bush, conflicting with the final official outcome. Mitofsky said he suspected that the difference arose because "the Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters." He refused, consistently, to release precinct-level polling data from Ohio to researchers who maintained that the election results were fraudulent, and his own exit polls were a more accurate picture of the vote. He died on September 1, 2006 in
New York City New York, often called New York City or NYC, is the List of United States cities by population, most populous city in the United States. With a 2020 population of 8,804,190 distributed over , New York City is also the L ...
of an
aortic aneurysm An aortic aneurysm is an enlargement (dilatation) of the aorta to greater than 1.5 times normal size. They usually cause no symptoms except when ruptured. Occasionally, there may be abdominal, back, or leg pain. The prevalence of abdominal aortic ...
, aged 71. The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research awards an annual Warren J. Mitofsky Award for Excellence in Public Opinion Research.


Mitofsky International

In 1993 Mitofsky founded Mitofsky International, a survey research company. Its primary business is conducting
exit poll An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for ...
s for major
election An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has oper ...
s around the world. It does this work exclusively for news organizations. Mitofsky has directed exit polls and quick counts since 1967 for almost 3,000 electoral contests. He has the distinction of conducting the first national presidential exit polls in the
United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territo ...
, Russia,
Mexico Mexico ( Spanish: México), officially the United Mexican States, is a country in the southern portion of North America. It is bordered to the north by the United States; to the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; to the southeast by Gua ...
and the
Philippines The Philippines (; fil, Pilipinas, links=no), officially the Republic of the Philippines ( fil, Republika ng Pilipinas, links=no), * bik, Republika kan Filipinas * ceb, Republika sa Pilipinas * cbk, República de Filipinas * hil, Republ ...
. Along with CESSI, Ltd., Mitofsky International were the only exit polls for the Russian presidential elections in 1996 and 2000 as well as all other Russian elections since 1993. It was the only provider of exit polling and quick counts reported by the Mexican broadcast industry for its 1994 presidential election.


References


External links

*
"WHAT WENT WRONG?"
(with 2004 polling), PBS Newshour, November 5, 2004

ic CNN, September 3, 2006
Mitofsky Remembered As Exit Poll Pioneer
by Mike Mokrzycki, Associated Press, September 4, 2006 {{DEFAULTSORT:Mitofsky, Warren 1934 births 2006 deaths Deaths from aortic aneurysm American statisticians Fellows of the American Statistical Association Businesspeople from New York City Guilford College alumni Pollsters Mathematicians from New York (state) 20th-century American businesspeople