Three Horizons (or 3H) is a framework and method for

futures studies Futures studies, futures research or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and wor ...

and practice, created by Anthony Hodgson, Andrew Curry, Graham Leicester, Bill Sharpe, Andrew Lyon and Ioan Fazey. It presents a picture of change in a given

system A system is a group of interacting or interrelated elements that act according to a set of rules to form a unified whole. A system, surrounded and influenced by its open system (systems theory), environment, is described by its boundaries, str ...

as an interplay of three horizons. Horizon 1 (H1) is the currently dominant but failing system that declines over time as it loses its fit with a changing environment. Horizon 3 (H3) is the envisioned desired

future The future is the time after the past and present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently ex ...

that is aligned to the changing environment. Horizon 2 (H2) is a turbulent intermediate space of

innovations Innovation is the practical implementation of ideas that result in the introduction of new goods or services or improvement in offering goods or services. ISO TC 279 in the standard ISO 56000:2020 defines innovation as "a new or changed entit ...

, some of which are 'captured' by H1, prop it up and extend its lifespan (so-called 'H2-' innovations), and some of which are genuinely disruptive and create space for a radically different kind of system to emerge ('H2+' innovations). The framework also illustrates the existence of 'pockets of the future in the present': niche examples of actors and systems working in a radically different way to the mainstream, which already embody H3

values In ethics and social sciences, value denotes the degree of importance of some thing or action, with the aim of determining which actions are best to do or what way is best to live ( normative ethics), or to describe the significance of different a ...

. In addition, some aspects of H1 will remain valuable in the desired future. 3H is commonly used in workshop settings to help organisations and actors create

strategies Strategy (from Greek στρατηγία ''stratēgia'', "troop leadership; office of general, command, generalship") is a general plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. In the sense of the "art o ...

for transformational change (i.e. fundamental change that shifts underlying

and

worldviews A worldview (also world-view) or is said to be the fundamental cognitive orientation of an individual or society encompassing the whole of the individual's or society's knowledge, culture, and point of view. However, when two parties view the sa ...

, rather than more superficial kinds of change), often in order to adapt to wider trends and

crises A crisis (: crises; : critical) is any event or period that will lead to an unstable and dangerous situation affecting an individual, group, or all of society. Crises are negative changes in the human or environmental affairs, especially when ...

History

3H was created in 2006 from an adaptation of

McKinsey & Company McKinsey & Company (informally McKinsey or McK) is an American multinational strategy and management consulting firm that offers professional services to corporations, governments, and other organizations. Founded in 1926 by James O. McKinse ...

's 'three horizons of growth' framework. A paper describing the 3H framework in detail was published in 2016 in the journal '' Ecology & Society''.

Use examples

3H has been used by various organisations around the world, including the

United Nations Development Programme The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is a United Nations agency tasked with helping countries eliminate poverty and achieve sustainable economic growth and human development. The UNDP emphasizes on developing local capacity towar ...

UNICEF UNICEF ( ), originally the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, officially United Nations Children's Fund since 1953, is an agency of the United Nations responsible for providing Humanitarianism, humanitarian and Development a ...

, the

UK Government His Majesty's Government, abbreviated to HM Government or otherwise UK Government, is the central government, central executive authority of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

'
Policy Lab
Johnson & Johnson Foundation
H3Uni
International Futures Forum, th
International Evaluation Academy
the

University of York The University of York (abbreviated as or ''York'' for Post-nominal letters, post-nominals) is a public Collegiate university, collegiate research university in York, England. Established in 1963, the university has expanded to more than thir ...

FixOurFood

Future Generations Commissioner for Wales The Future Generations Commissioner for Wales () is a Welsh Government officer, overseeing an independent advisory body of the same name. The position was created following the passing of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, ef ...

Natural Resources Wales Natural Resources Wales () is a Welsh Government sponsored body, which became operational from 1 April 2013, when it took over the management of the natural resources of Wales. It was formed from a merger of the Countryside Council for Wales, E ...

Chatham House The Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, is a British think tank based in London, England. Its stated mission is "to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous, and just world". It ...

Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC), explores how people and nature can live and develop on a planet under pressure. The centre is a collaboration between Stockholm University and the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics at the Royal Swedish A ...

Leaders' QuestVolansSchool of International FuturesFuture StewardsRace to ZeroGlobal OptimismMetabolicSystemiq

Forum for the Future Forum for the Future is an international sustainability organisation that works in partnership with business, government and civil society to try to accelerate change toward a just and regenerative future. It works by catalysing change in key glob ...

Thirty Percy

Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch University (SU) (, ) is a public research university situated in Stellenbosch, a town in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Stellenbosch is the oldest university in South Africa and the oldest extant university in Sub-Sahara ...

’
Centre for Sustainability TransitionsImpact Amplified
HES-SO Valais-Wallis
Bounce BeyondLife Itself
an
Second Renaissance
Impact Amplified lists 3H use examples in its 'Three Horizons Use Case Library'. Contexts in which 3H has been used include: * ' ngaging

young people Youth is the time of life when one is young. The word, youth, can also mean the time between childhood and adulthood (Maturity (psychological), maturity), but it can also refer to one's peak, in terms of health or the period of life known as bei ...

from around the world in a foresight process to identify and support youth-led

climate Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteoro ...

breakthroughs' * Identifying priority domains of action for transforming towards a regenerative

food system The term food system describes the interconnected systems and processes that influence nutrition, food, health, community development, and agriculture. A food system includes all processes and infrastructure involved in feeding a population: growi ...

Yorkshire Yorkshire ( ) is an area of Northern England which was History of Yorkshire, historically a county. Despite no longer being used for administration, Yorkshire retains a strong regional identity. The county was named after its county town, the ...

* Exploring desired

urban Urban means "related to a city". In that sense, the term may refer to: * Urban area, geographical area distinct from rural areas * Urban culture, the culture of towns and cities Urban may also refer to: General * Urban (name), a list of people ...

futures in a number of

cities A city is a human settlement of a substantial size. The term "city" has different meanings around the world and in some places the settlement can be very small. Even where the term is limited to larger settlements, there is no universally agree ...

around the world * Identifying actions to increase

coastal A coast (coastline, shoreline, seashore) is the land next to the sea or the line that forms the boundary between the land and the ocean or a lake. Coasts are influenced by the topography of the surrounding landscape and by aquatic erosion, su ...

community resilience against environmental shocks in Valiathura,

India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...

* Drawing on local ecological knowledge to identify adaptation pathways to reduce

wildfire A wildfire, forest fire, or a bushfire is an unplanned and uncontrolled fire in an area of Combustibility and flammability, combustible vegetation. Depending on the type of vegetation present, a wildfire may be more specifically identified as a ...

risk in

Montseny Montseny () is a municipality and village in the Vallès Oriental comarca in Catalonia Catalonia is an autonomous community of Spain, designated as a ''nationalities and regions of Spain, nationality'' by its Statute of Autonomy of Catalo ...

Catalonia Catalonia is an autonomous community of Spain, designated as a ''nationalities and regions of Spain, nationality'' by its Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 2006, Statute of Autonomy. Most of its territory (except the Val d'Aran) is situate ...

* Exploring the future of

sport Sport is a physical activity or game, often Competition, competitive and organization, organized, that maintains or improves physical ability and skills. Sport may provide enjoyment to participants and entertainment to spectators. The numbe ...

and

recreation Recreation is an activity of leisure, leisure being discretionary time. The "need to do something for recreation" is an essential element of human biology and psychology. Recreational activities are often done for happiness, enjoyment, amusement, ...

New Zealand New Zealand () is an island country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It consists of two main landmasses—the North Island () and the South Island ()—and List of islands of New Zealand, over 600 smaller islands. It is the List of isla ...

* Exploring the future of

geoscience Earth science or geoscience includes all fields of natural science related to the planet Earth. This is a branch of science dealing with the physical, chemical, and biological complex constitutions and synergistic linkages of Earth's four spheres ...

{{Cite journal , last1=Stewart , first1=Iain , last2=Capello , first2=Maria Angela , last3=Mouri , first3=Hassina , last4=Mhopjeni , first4=Kombada , last5=Raji , first5=Munira , date=2023-09-06 , title=Three Horizons for Future Geoscience , journal=Earth Science, Systems and Society , language=English , volume=3 , pages=10079 , doi=10.3389/esss.2023.10079 , doi-access=free , issn=2634-730X

References

McKinsey & Company Futures studies