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The "Second American Civil War" is an
umbrella term In linguistics, semantics, general semantics, and ontologies, hyponymy () is a semantic relation between a hyponym denoting a subtype and a hypernym or hyperonym (sometimes called umbrella term or blanket term) denoting a supertype. In othe ...
used by academics in order to reclassify historical eras of significant
political violence Political violence is violence which is perpetrated in order to achieve political goals. It can include violence which is used by a state against other states ( war), violence which is used by a state against civilians and non-state actors (for ...
in the
history of the United States The history of the lands that became the United States began with the arrival of the first people in the Americas around 15,000 BC. Numerous indigenous cultures formed, and many saw transformations in the 16th century away from more densely ...
as a "
civil war A civil war or intrastate war is a war between organized groups within the same state (or country). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government polici ...
" or, more commonly, to discuss the potential outbreak of a future civil war in the country. Discussion of a second civil war has occurred with varying degrees of frequency and sincerity since the first civil war ended in 1865. Discussion of a possible second civil war entered the mainstream in earnest as a result of the polarizing effect of the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Many
conservatives Conservatism is a cultural, social, and political philosophy that seeks to promote and to preserve traditional institutions, practices, and values. The central tenets of conservatism may vary in relation to the culture and civilization in ...
had come to express perceived grievances against the
government A government is the system or group of people governing an organized community, generally a state. In the case of its broad associative definition, government normally consists of legislature, executive, and judiciary. Government i ...
, which they viewed as
tyrannical A tyrant (), in the modern English usage of the word, is an absolute ruler who is unrestrained by law, or one who has usurped a legitimate ruler's sovereignty. Often portrayed as cruel, tyrants may defend their positions by resorting to r ...
under Democrats such as
President President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) * President (education), a leader of a college or university * President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese ...
Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, Obama was the first Af ...
and
Speaker Speaker may refer to: Society and politics * Speaker (politics), the presiding officer in a legislative assembly * Public speaker, one who gives a speech or lecture * A person producing speech: the producer of a given utterance, especially: ** In ...
Nancy Pelosi Nancy Patricia Pelosi (; ; born March 26, 1940) is an American politician who has served as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives since 2019 and previously from 2007 to 2011. She has represented in the United States House of ...
. Meanwhile, left-leaning groups viewed Trump's election as a sign that
reactionary In political science, a reactionary or a reactionist is a person who holds political views that favor a return to the '' status quo ante'', the previous political state of society, which that person believes possessed positive characteristics abs ...
,
far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of being ...
, and extremist movements were gaining political power, warning that Trump's incendiary and antidemocratic behavior would promote
political violence Political violence is violence which is perpetrated in order to achieve political goals. It can include violence which is used by a state against other states ( war), violence which is used by a state against civilians and non-state actors (for ...
, while the efforts of Trump conservatives to subvert democratic norms would lead to a rise in
fascism Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultra-nationalist political ideology and movement,: "extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political and cultural liberalism, a belief in natural social hierarchy and t ...
, ultra-nationalism,
Christian nationalism Christian nationalism is Christianity-affiliated religious nationalism. Christian nationalists primarily focus on internal politics, such as passing laws that reflect their view of Christianity and its role in political and social life. In coun ...
, and
white supremacy White supremacy or white supremacism is the belief that white people are superior to those of other races and thus should dominate them. The belief favors the maintenance and defense of any power and privilege held by white people. White ...
. The resulting social division is considered by most experts to be one of the most politically polarizing eras in American history. Concerns about a civil war rose dramatically after the
first impeachment trial of Donald Trump The first impeachment trial of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, began in the U.S. Senate on January 16, 2020, and concluded with his acquittal on February 5. After an inquiry between September to November 2019, Presiden ...
, and it continued to grow due to political turmoil. Stemming from the
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identi ...
,
civil unrest Civil disorder, also known as civil disturbance, civil unrest, or social unrest is a situation arising from a mass act of civil disobedience (such as a demonstration, riot, strike, or unlawful assembly) in which law enforcement has difficulty ...
during the
George Floyd protests The George Floyd protests were a series of protests and civil unrest against police brutality and racism that began in Minneapolis on May 26, 2020, and largely took place during 2020. The civil unrest and protests began as part of internat ...
, the aftermath and legal investigations related to the historically contentious
2020 United States presidential election The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala H ...
, the poor
economic An economy is an area of the production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services. In general, it is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with th ...
conditions from the
2021–2022 inflation surge The 2021–2022 inflation surge is the higher-than-average economic inflation throughout much of the world that began in early 2021. It has been attributed to the 2021 global supply chain crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unexpecte ...
, the overturning of ''
Roe v. Wade ''Roe v. Wade'', 410 U.S. 113 (1973),. was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States conferred the right to have an abortion. The decision struck down many federal and st ...
'', and the
FBI search of Mar-a-Lago On August8, 2022, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the residence of former U.S. president Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida. The search warrant application was authorized by U.S. Att ...
. Those who see early signs of a second civil war point to trends including democratic decline and a normalization of
political violence Political violence is violence which is perpetrated in order to achieve political goals. It can include violence which is used by a state against other states ( war), violence which is used by a state against civilians and non-state actors (for ...
, claiming that the United States deeply resembles other countries that have broken out into civil war. Meanwhile, those who say the risk of civil war is overblown characterize such discussions as
alarmist Alarmism is excessive or exaggerated alarm of a real or imagined threat. Alarmism connotes attempts to excite fears or giving warnings of great danger in a manner that is amplified, overemphasized or unwarranted. In the news media, alarmism can of ...
and
fearmongering Fearmongering, or scaremongering, is a form of manipulation that causes fear by using exaggerated rumors of impending danger. Theory According to evolutionary psychology, humans have a strong impulse to pay attention to danger because awareness ...
, pointing to significant disincentives to large-scale violence ranging from the
economic An economy is an area of the production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services. In general, it is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with th ...
to the
geopolitical Geopolitics (from Greek γῆ ''gê'' "earth, land" and πολιτική ''politikḗ'' "politics") is the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations. While geopolitics usually refers to ...
. Almost all observers claim a second civil war of any magnitude would incur deep costs to global stability. Following the violent
pro-Trump Trumpism is a term for the political ideologies, social emotions, style of governance, political movement, and set of mechanisms for acquiring and keeping control of power associated with Donald Trump and his political base. '' Trumpists'' ...
attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021, an increasing number of political scientists, journalists, historians, intelligence officials, military leaders, former U.S. generals, investors, political leaders on both sides of the political divide began to raise growing concern that the United States might break into civil war.
Evangelical Evangelicalism (), also called evangelical Christianity or evangelical Protestantism, is a worldwide interdenominational movement within Protestant Christianity that affirms the centrality of being " born again", in which an individual expe ...
and
fundamentalist Fundamentalism is a tendency among certain groups and individuals that is characterized by the application of a strict literal interpretation to scriptures, dogmas, or ideologies, along with a strong belief in the importance of distinguishi ...
leaders, including
Focus on the Family Focus on the Family (FOTF or FotF) is a fundamentalist Protestant organization founded in 1977 in Southern California by James Dobson, based in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The group is one of a number of evangelical parachurch organizations ...
, have urged conservative
Christians Christians () are people who follow or adhere to Christianity, a monotheistic Abrahamic religion based on the life and teachings of Jesus Christ. The words ''Christ'' and ''Christian'' derive from the Koine Greek title ''Christós'' (Χρ� ...
to prepare for civil war against the " radical left." The
British British may refer to: Peoples, culture, and language * British people, nationals or natives of the United Kingdom, British Overseas Territories, and Crown Dependencies. ** Britishness, the British identity and common culture * British English, ...
progressive newspaper ''
The Guardian ''The Guardian'' is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in 1821 as ''The Manchester Guardian'', and changed its name in 1959. Along with its sister papers '' The Observer'' and '' The Guardian Weekly'', ''The Guardian'' is part of the ...
'' suggested that America's "treasonous far-right factions" have already declared war. Some intelligence officials and journalists have asserted that the country is locked into a cold civil war between the
political left Left-wing politics describes the range of political ideologies that support and seek to achieve social equality and egalitarianism, often in opposition to social hierarchy. Left-wing politics typically involve a concern for those in soci ...
and the
political right Right-wing politics describes the range of political ideologies that view certain social orders and hierarchies as inevitable, natural, normal, or desirable, typically supporting this position on the basis of natural law, economics, auth ...
that could start within the next five to ten years. Others state that the 2022 midterms or the 2024 presidential election could act as a potential fire-starter. And still others claim a second civil war may have already begun and a shooting war is inevitable. During the 2022 election cycle, several Republican candidates ran their platform on "civil war" rhetoric, with many candidates discussing violence against the left, while many Democrats warned of fascism if Republicans take control of the government. Polling data demonstrates growing
pessimism Pessimism is a negative mental attitude in which an undesirable outcome is anticipated from a given situation. Pessimists tend to focus on the negatives of life in general. A common question asked to test for pessimism is " Is the glass half emp ...
among Americans who view the future of their country at risk of civil war. A slim majority consider the U.S. to be in a cold civil war between the political left and political right. Other polling shows that a majority of self-identified Republicans agree that "some violence may be necessary to get the country back on track" and that the "U.S. seems headed toward a civil war in the near future." It has also been demonstrated that both self-identified Democrats and Republicans have a growing tolerance for violence as a means to justify political ends. These sentiments have translated into real-world action, with a handful of
mass shootings There is a lack of consensus on how to define a mass shooting. Most terms define a minimum of three or four victims of gun violence (not including the shooter or in an inner city) in a short period of time, although an Australian study from 20 ...
and politically motivated killings being at least partly motivated by right-wing perpetrators hoping to foment a second civil war.


Reinterpretations of past events


Division among colonists during the Revolutionary War

Some historians name the 1861–1865 war the "Second American Civil War", because in their view, the
American Revolutionary War The American Revolutionary War (April 19, 1775 – September 3, 1783), also known as the Revolutionary War or American War of Independence, was a major war of the American Revolution. Widely considered as the war that secured the independence of t ...
can also be considered a
civil war A civil war or intrastate war is a war between organized groups within the same state (or country). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government polici ...
(since the term can be used in reference to any war in which one political body separates itself from another political body). They then refer to the Independence War, which resulted in the separation of the
Thirteen Colonies The Thirteen Colonies, also known as the Thirteen British Colonies, the Thirteen American Colonies, or later as the United Colonies, were a group of British colonies on the Atlantic coast of North America. Founded in the 17th and 18th centu ...
from the
British Empire The British Empire was composed of the dominions, colonies, protectorates, mandates, and other territories ruled or administered by the United Kingdom and its predecessor states. It began with the overseas possessions and trading posts e ...
, as the "First American Civil War". A significant number of American colonists stayed loyal to the British Crown and as
Loyalists Loyalism, in the United Kingdom, its overseas territories and its former colonies, refers to the allegiance to the British crown or the United Kingdom. In North America, the most common usage of the term refers to loyalty to the British Cro ...
fought on the British side while opposite were a significant amount of colonists called Patriots who fought on the American side. In some localities, there was fierce fighting between Americans including gruesome instances of hanging, drawing, and quartering on both sides. As Canadian historian William Stewart Wallace noted: As early as 1789, David Ramsay, an American patriot historian, wrote in his ''History of the American Revolution'' that "Many circumstances concurred to make the American war particularly calamitous. It was originally a civil war in the estimation of both parties." Framing the American Revolutionary War as a civil war is gaining increasing examination.


"War of Terror" during the Reconstruction Era

After the American Civil War effectively ended with the Ceasefire Agreement of the Confederacy, the federal government began a process which it called Reconstruction, leading to the Reconstruction era (1865–1877). The United States aimed to return Southern states to the Union and update the federal and state governments in accordance with the
Thirteenth In music or music theory, a thirteenth is the note thirteen scale degrees from the root of a chord and also the interval between the root and the thirteenth. The interval can be also described as a compound sixth, spanning an octa ...
, Fourteenth, and Fifteenth Amendments to the
United States Constitution The Constitution of the United States is the supreme law of the United States of America. It superseded the Articles of Confederation, the nation's first constitution, in 1789. Originally comprising seven articles, it delineates the natio ...
. The post-war volatility created endemic violence in Southern states, including armed conflict. Due to the violence and severity of the social, political and constitutional challenges during the Reconstruction Era, this period in history is sometimes called the "Second Civil War". Referring to Reconstruction as a "Second American Civil War" was established by the ''
American Experience ''American Experience'' is a television program airing on the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) in the United States. The program airs documentaries, many of which have won awards, about important or interesting events and people in American his ...
'' episode "Reconstruction: The Second Civil War" and made its way to the school curriculum.
White supremacy White supremacy or white supremacism is the belief that white people are superior to those of other races and thus should dominate them. The belief favors the maintenance and defense of any power and privilege held by white people. White ...
terrorist groups emerged in the South to oppose Reconstruction, including the foundation of the
Ku Klux Klan The Ku Klux Klan (), commonly shortened to the KKK or the Klan, is an American white supremacist, right-wing terrorist, and hate group whose primary targets are African Americans, Jews, Latinos, Asian Americans, Native Americans, and Cat ...
,
the White League ''The'' () is a grammatical article in English, denoting persons or things already mentioned, under discussion, implied or otherwise presumed familiar to listeners, readers, or speakers. It is the definite article in English. ''The'' is the ...
, and the Knights of the White Camelia, which consisted primarily of Confederate veterans. These organizations attempted to oppose the United States government through assassinations, intimidation of black and white Republican officials, voter intimidation, and, at times, attempted coups and insurrections such as The Battle of Liberty Place in Louisiana in 1874. Historian Clarence Walker described this period as "a war of terror" aimed at black voters and politicians, as well as whites considered "race traitors."


The Coal Wars

Some historians have interpreted the
Coal Wars The Coal Wars were a series of armed labor conflicts in the United States, roughly between 1890 and 1930. Although they occurred mainly in the East, particularly in Appalachia, there was a significant amount of violence in Colorado after the tu ...
as constituting some form of a Second American Civil War and they also consider it to be the largest national revolt since the first Civil War ended. Starting in 1890, the informal armed rebellion began when coal workers revolted against their employers due to poor working conditions. Attempts to unionize were met with police crackdowns, resulting in several revolts and even resulting in armed battles throughout the United States. Although they occurred mainly in the
East East or Orient is one of the four cardinal directions or points of the compass. It is the opposite direction from west and is the direction from which the Sun rises on the Earth. Etymology As in other languages, the word is formed from the fac ...
, particularly in
Appalachia Appalachia () is a cultural region in the Eastern United States that stretches from the Southern Tier of New York State to northern Alabama and Georgia. While the Appalachian Mountains stretch from Belle Isle in Newfoundland and Labrador, C ...
, there was a significant amount of violence in
Colorado Colorado (, other variants) is a state in the Mountain West subregion of the Western United States. It encompasses most of the Southern Rocky Mountains, as well as the northeastern portion of the Colorado Plateau and the western edge of the ...
after the turn of the century. The largest conflict which occurred during the revolt was the
Battle of Blair Mountain The Battle of Blair Mountain was the largest labor uprising in United States history and the largest armed uprising since the American Civil War. The conflict occurred in Logan County, West Virginia, as part of the Coal Wars, a series of early- ...
in 1921. That battle was the largest labor uprising in
United States history The history of the lands that became the United States began with the arrival of the first people in the Americas around 15,000 BC. Numerous indigenous cultures formed, and many saw transformations in the 16th century away from more densely ...
and it was also the largest armed uprising since the
American Civil War The American Civil War (April 12, 1861 – May 26, 1865; also known by Names of the American Civil War, other names) was a civil war in the United States. It was fought between the Union (American Civil War), Union ("the North") and t ...
. Some 10,000 armed
coal miner Coal mining is the process of extracting coal from the ground. Coal is valued for its energy content and since the 1880s has been widely used to generate electricity. Steel and cement industries use coal as a fuel for extraction of iron from ...
s confronted 3,000 lawmen and
strikebreakers A strikebreaker (sometimes called a scab, blackleg, or knobstick) is a person who works despite a strike. Strikebreakers are usually individuals who were not employed by the company before the trade union dispute but hired after or during the str ...
(called the Logan Defenders) when tensions rose between workers and mine management. The battle ended after approximately one million rounds were fired and the
United States Army The United States Army (USA) is the land service branch of the United States Armed Forces. It is one of the eight U.S. uniformed services, and is designated as the Army of the United States in the U.S. Constitution.Article II, section 2, ...
, represented by the
West Virginia Army National Guard The West Virginia National Guard is a part of the West Virginia Department of Military Affairs and Public Safety. It comprises the West Virginia Army National Guard and the West Virginia Air National Guard. Unlike some states, West Virginia does ...
led by McDowell County native William Eubanks, intervened by presidential order. Up to 100 people were killed, and many more arrested.


The 1933 "Business Plot"

The
Business Plot The Business Plot (also called the Wall Street Putsch and The White House Putsch) was an alleged political conspiracy in 1933, in the United States to overthrow the government of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and install Smedley Butler as d ...
(also called the Wall Street Putsch and The White House Putsch) was a
political conspiracy This is a list of political conspiracies. In a political context, a conspiracy refers to a group of people united in the goal of damaging, usurping, or overthrowing an established political power. Typically, the final goal is to gain power throug ...
in 1933 in the
United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country Continental United States, primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 U.S. state, states, a Washington, D.C., ...
to overthrow the government of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and install a dictator. Retired Marine Corps
Major General Major general (abbreviated MG, maj. gen. and similar) is a military rank used in many countries. It is derived from the older rank of sergeant major general. The disappearance of the "sergeant" in the title explains the apparent confusion of ...
Smedley Butler Major general (United States), Major General Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881June 21, 1940), nicknamed the "Maverick Marine", was a senior United States Marine Corps Officer (armed forces), officer who fought in the Philippine–American ...
asserted that wealthy businessmen were plotting to create a
fascist Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultra-nationalist political ideology and movement,: "extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political and cultural liberalism, a belief in natural social hierarchy and the ...
veterans' organization with Butler as its leader and use it in a
coup d'état A coup d'état (; French for 'stroke of state'), also known as a coup or overthrow, is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, politician, cult, rebel group, m ...
to overthrow Roosevelt. In 1934, Butler testified under oath before the
United States House of Representatives The United States House of Representatives, often referred to as the House of Representatives, the U.S. House, or simply the House, is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, with the Senate being the upper chamber. Together they ...
Special Committee on Un-American Activities (the " McCormackDickstein Committee") on these revelations. Although no one was prosecuted, the congressional committee final report said, "there is no question that these attempts were discussed, were planned, and might have been placed in execution when and if the financial backers deemed it expedient." Early in the committee's gathering of testimony most major news media dismissed the plot, with a ''
New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'' editorial characterizing it as a "gigantic hoax". When the committee's final report was released, the Times said the committee "purported to report that a two-month investigation had convinced it that General Butler's story of a Fascist march on Washington was alarmingly true" and "... also alleged that definite proof had been found that the much publicized Fascist march on Washington, which was to have been led by Major Gen. Smedley D. Butler, retired, according to testimony at a hearing, was actually contemplated". The individuals involved all denied the existence of a plot. Historians have questioned whether or not a coup was actually close to execution, but most agree that some sort of "wild scheme" was contemplated and discussed.


Debate about the outbreak of a possible Second Civil War (2008–present)

A national discussion of a second civil war can be traced back to the election of
Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, Obama was the first Af ...
in 2008, and increased in frequency and seriousness after the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The debate became mainstream after several socially destabilizing events in 2020–2022, most notably was the political fallout from the highly contentious 2020 presidential election.


Warning signs of a second civil war

Those who see warning signs of a second civil war cite: * Democratic decline, signs of
anocracy Anocracy or semi-democracy is a form of government that is loosely defined as part democracy and part dictatorship, or as a "regime that mixes democratic with autocratic features." Another definition classifies anocracy as "a regime that permits ...
, and authoritarian movements. * The polarizing effect of a winner-takes-all
two-party system A two-party system is a political party system in which two major political parties consistently dominate the political landscape. At any point in time, one of the two parties typically holds a majority in the legislature and is usually refe ...
* Radicalized citizenry with a record high gun ownership rate * Irreconcilable beliefs about critical issues (such as who won an election) * Political tension within the U.S. military * Negative economic conditions (such as growing federal debt,
income inequality There are wide varieties of economic inequality, most notably income inequality measured using the distribution of income (the amount of money people are paid) and wealth inequality measured using the distribution of wealth (the amount of we ...
and the
2021-2022 inflation surge Increment or incremental may refer to: * Incrementalism, a theory (also used in politics as a synonym for gradualism) * Increment and decrement operators, the operators ++ and -- in computer programming * Incremental computing *Incremental backup, ...
) * A steady rise in political violence (particularly among far-right domestic terrorists) * A loss of faith in the legitimacy of the government * And the normalization of open discussion of civil war Some researchers have also posited that a civil war might break out along racial and religious lines, exacerbated by the rise of
secularization In sociology, secularization (or secularisation) is the transformation of a society from close identification with religious values and institutions toward non-religious values and secular institutions. The ''secularization thesis'' expresses ...
and
multiculturalism The term multiculturalism has a range of meanings within the contexts of sociology, political philosophy, and colloquial use. In sociology and in everyday usage, it is a synonym for " ethnic pluralism", with the two terms often used interchang ...
in America, coupled with white decline and the decline in Christianity. Less commonly, some conservative observers, including Republican politicians, claim a second civil war is being stoked by
far-left Far-left politics, also known as the radical left or the extreme left, are politics further to the left on the left–right political spectrum than the standard political left. The term does not have a single definition. Some scholars conside ...
and
socialist Socialism is a left-wing economic philosophy and movement encompassing a range of economic systems characterized by the dominance of social ownership of the means of production as opposed to private ownership. As a term, it describes the ...
movements, such as Antifa, that seek to spark a
revolution In political science, a revolution (Latin: ''revolutio'', "a turn around") is a fundamental and relatively sudden change in political power and political organization which occurs when the population revolts against the government, typically due ...
, suspend the U.S. Constitution, and implement a new form of
tyranny A tyrant (), in the modern English usage of the word, is an absolute ruler who is unrestrained by law, or one who has usurped a legitimate ruler's sovereignty. Often portrayed as cruel, tyrants may defend their positions by resorting to ...
. They typically cite discredited
conspiracy theories A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful groups, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources: * * * * The term has a nega ...
related to
COVID-19 misinformation False information, including intentional disinformation and conspiracy theories, about the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic and the origin, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease has been spread through social media, text messagin ...
, election rigging, the deep state, or white replacement theory to justify their position.


Argument for alarmism

Skeptics claim that the occurrence of a civil war in the modern U.S. is essentially impossible due to certain present day conditions, including: * A lack of two organized standing armies * An absence of clear geopolitical lines (such as North versus South) * A vastly nonviolent majority on both sides of the political spectrum * An absence of state-sponsored violence by political leaders * The nation's position as the wealthiest democracy in the world (which acts as a deterrent to the cost of war) * Significant disincentives to interstate war (e.g. deeply shared economies across state lines) They claim that popular discussion about war is
alarmist Alarmism is excessive or exaggerated alarm of a real or imagined threat. Alarmism connotes attempts to excite fears or giving warnings of great danger in a manner that is amplified, overemphasized or unwarranted. In the news media, alarmism can of ...
,
fearmongering Fearmongering, or scaremongering, is a form of manipulation that causes fear by using exaggerated rumors of impending danger. Theory According to evolutionary psychology, humans have a strong impulse to pay attention to danger because awareness ...
, polarizing, a "failure of historical perspective," and detracts from other real problems facing the nation (such as
democratic backsliding Democratic backsliding, also called autocratization, is the decline in the democratic characteristics of a political system, and is the opposite of democratization. Democracy is the most popular form of government, with more than half of the nat ...
and
voter suppression Voter suppression is a strategy used to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing specific groups of people from voting. It is distinguished from political campaigning in that campaigning attempts to change likely voting ...
). Skeptics generally claim that in its present form, the current political division is a mostly nonviolent
culture war A culture war is a cultural conflict between social groups and the struggle for dominance of their values, beliefs, and practices. It commonly refers to topics on which there is general societal disagreement and polarization in societal valu ...
that does not represent a existential risk to the continuity of government. Other critics claim that the term "second civil war" is being used inappropriately when it is being used to describe the potential rise of political violence that does not meet the academic definition of a civil war. They also warn that mainstream talk about a second civil war could become a "
self-fulfilling prophecy A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's or group of persons' belief or expectation that said prediction would come true. This suggests that people's beliefs influence their actions. T ...
." Some conservative critics have also claimed that the left is stoking fear to justify
censorship Censorship is the suppression of speech, public communication, or other information. This may be done on the basis that such material is considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or "inconvenient". Censorship can be conducted by governments ...
and "criminalize dissent."


How a conflict might manifest

Experts state that if civil war breaks out in the United States it will look vastly different from the first civil war, often pointing to the Syrian Civil War as an example of a modern civil war. The general consensus is that a second civil war would likely take the form of
fourth-generation warfare Fourth-generation warfare (4GW) is conflict characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians. The term was first used in 1980 by a team of United States analysts, including William S. Lind, to describe ...
or a low-intensity conflict. Some envision a similar event to The Troubles in Ireland, or the Years of Lead in Italy. Others, such as Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), conceive of a second civil war as frequent acts of
political assassination Assassination is the murder of a prominent or important person, such as a head of state, head of government, politician, world leader, member of a royal family or CEO. The murder of a celebrity, activist, or artist, though they may not have a ...
,
mass shooting There is a lack of consensus on how to define a mass shooting. Most terms define a minimum of three or four victims of gun violence (not including the shooter or in an inner city) in a short period of time, although an Australian study from 20 ...
s, and
domestic terrorism Domestic terrorism or homegrown terrorism is a form of terrorism in which victims "within a country are targeted by a perpetrator with the same citizenship" as the victims.Gary M. Jackson, ''Predicting Malicious Behavior: Tools and Techniques ...
(similar to the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot in 2020 and the
1995 Oklahoma City bombing The Oklahoma City bombing was a domestic terrorist truck bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States, on April 19, 1995. Perpetrated by two anti-government extremists, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Ni ...
). Lilliana Mason, a political scientist at
Johns Hopkins University Johns Hopkins University (Johns Hopkins, Hopkins, or JHU) is a private research university in Baltimore, Maryland. Founded in 1876, Johns Hopkins is the oldest research university in the United States and in the western hemisphere. It consi ...
, stated that if a modern civil war breaks out in the U.S. it will likely grow out of a cycle of protests and counter-protests, leading to deadly confrontations similar to the Kenosha unrest shooting by
Kyle Rittenhouse Kyle Howard Rittenhouse (born January 3, 2003) is an American known for shooting three men, two fatally, during the civil unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in August 2020 when he was 17 years old. At his trial in November 2021, a jury found Ritten ...
. Mason theorized that if a Republican state legislature rejects the results of a future election it could have a
snowball effect A snowball effect is a process that starts from an initial state of small significance and builds upon itself, becoming larger (graver, more serious), and also perhaps potentially dangerous or disastrous (a vicious circle), though it might be be ...
. "The first violent event can precipitate a bunch of other violent events," she notes, adding that it could cycle into a "future in which we can't stop the violence." Other researchers, such as Stephen Marche and
Barbara F. Walter Barbara F. Walter is an American political scientist who is the Rohr Professor of International affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. She is known for her work on bargaining theory and po ...
, envision a second civil war as more organized, leading to a violent insurgency against the federal and state governments. These movements would manifest as
leaderless resistance Leaderless resistance, or phantom cell structure, is a social resistance strategy in which small, independent groups ( covert cells), or individuals (a solo cell is called a " lone wolf"), challenge an established institution such as a law, econo ...
,
guerilla warfare Guerrilla warfare is a form of irregular warfare in which small groups of combatants, such as paramilitary personnel, armed civilians, or irregulars, use military tactics including ambushes, sabotage, raids, petty warfare, hit-and-run tactic ...
,
irregular warfare Irregular warfare (IW) is defined in United States joint doctrine as "a violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations." Concepts associated with irregular warfare are older than the te ...
, or
asymmetric warfare Asymmetric warfare (or asymmetric engagement) is the term given to describe a type of war between belligerents whose relative military power, strategy or tactics differ significantly. This is typically a war between a standing, professional ar ...
driven by
white nationalist White nationalism is a type of racial nationalism or pan-nationalism which espouses the belief that white people are a raceHeidi Beirich and Kevin Hicks. "Chapter 7: White nationalism in America". In Perry, Barbara. ''Hate Crimes''. Greenwoo ...
militias and antigovernmental insurgents who attempt to carve out white ethno-states from the nation. A large-scale conflict between insurgents and the U.S. military would likely result in a president declaring
emergency powers A state of emergency is a situation in which a government is empowered to be able to put through policies that it would normally not be permitted to do, for the safety and protection of its citizens. A government can declare such a state du ...
and the implementation of invasive government surveillance, lockdowns and curfews,
security checkpoint Civilian checkpoints or security checkpoints are distinguishable from border or frontier checkpoints in that they are erected and enforced within contiguous areas under military or paramilitary control. Civilian checkpoints have been employed w ...
s, and mass detention of suspected insurgents. Others suggest a second civil war could break out ''within'' the military, resulting in a conflict much larger in scope that could be "catastrophic," leading to a collapse of the U.S. political system. Most experts agree that any form of second civil war would have significant economic and political costs, and would have a far-reaching impact to global stability established by the Post-World War II world order.


Background (2008–present)


Presidency of Barack Obama (2008–2016)

On November 4, 2008,
Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, Obama was the first Af ...
was elected as the first President of the United States with
African-American African Americans (also referred to as Black Americans and Afro-Americans) are an ethnic group consisting of Americans with partial or total ancestry from sub-Saharan Africa. The term "African American" generally denotes descendants of ensl ...
ancestry. Obama appeared just before midnight Eastern Time in Grant Park,
Chicago (''City in a Garden''); I Will , image_map = , map_caption = Interactive Map of Chicago , coordinates = , coordinates_footnotes = , subdivision_type = List of sovereign states, Count ...
, in front of a crowd of 250,000 people to deliver his victory speech. There was no overt discussion about a Second American Civil War in response to Obama's election. However, former Texas Governor
Rick Perry James Richard Perry (born March 4, 1950) is an American politician who served as the 14th United States secretary of energy from 2017 to 2019 and as the 47th governor of Texas from 2000 to 2015. Perry also ran unsuccessfully for the Republic ...
discussed secession at a 2009 rally while the crowd chanted "secede," but later claimed that his remarks were rhetorical. American professor
Victor Davis Hanson Victor Davis Hanson (born September 5, 1953) is an American commentator, classicist, and military historian. He has been a commentator on modern and ancient warfare and contemporary politics for ''The New York Times'', ''Wall Street Journal'', ...
blamed
Obama's presidency Barack Obama's tenure as the 44th president of the United States began with his first inauguration on January 20, 2009, and ended on January 20, 2017. A Democrat from Illinois, Obama took office following a decisive victory over Republic ...
for "sharpening" conflict between " constitutionalism and
American exceptionalism American exceptionalism is the belief that the United States is inherently different from other nations.globalist
ecumenicalism Ecumenism (), also spelled oecumenism, is the concept and principle that Christians who belong to different Christian denominations should work together to develop closer relationships among their churches and promote Christian unity. The adjec ...
." Hanson also claimed that Obama's conduct fueled
racialism Scientific racism, sometimes termed biological racism, is the pseudoscientific belief that empirical evidence exists to support or justify racism ( racial discrimination), racial inferiority, or racial superiority.. "Few tragedies can be mor ...
by stoking a "white-versus-nonwhite binary." Hanson also claimed that the Obama administration "weaponized the
IRS The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is the revenue service for the United States federal government, which is responsible for collecting U.S. federal taxes and administering the Internal Revenue Code, the main body of the federal statutory tax ...
, the FBI, the NSC, the
CIA The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA ), known informally as the Agency and historically as the Company, is a civilian foreign intelligence service of the federal government of the United States, officially tasked with gathering, processing, ...
, and the
State Department The United States Department of State (DOS), or State Department, is an executive department of the U.S. federal government responsible for the country's foreign policy and relations. Equivalent to the ministry of foreign affairs of other na ...
and redefined the deep state as if it were the Congress, but with the ability to make and enforce laws all at once," deepening political polarization. Hanson added that the impact of the Digital Revolution and "campus radicalism" had brought the country to "the brink of a veritable civil war." David Blight, a Yale historian, also states that the "shock of events" from recent polarization "dates to Obama's election n 2008" However, Blight points to "a tremendous resistance from the right" as the leading cause of tension. Blight adds that " episodes of police violence" under Obama renewed racial tensions in America, stating: "parallels and analogies are always risky, but we do have weakened institutions and not just polarized parties but parties that are risking disintegration." According to data which was collected and published by the
Anti-Defamation League The Anti-Defamation League (ADL), formerly known as the Anti-Defamation League of B'nai B'rith, is an international Jewish non-governmental organization based in the United States specializing in civil rights law. It was founded in late Septe ...
, Obama's 2008 election led to a surge in membership in the
American militia movement The American militia movement is a term used by law enforcement and security analysts to refer to a number of private organizations that include paramilitary or similar elements. These groups may refer to themselves as militia, unorganized milit ...
, including increased membership in
far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of being ...
and
neo-fascist Neo-fascism is a post-World War II far-right ideology that includes significant elements of fascism. Neo-fascism usually includes ultranationalism, racial supremacy, populism, authoritarianism, nativism, xenophobia, and anti-immigration ...
militia groups such as the
Oath Keepers Oath Keepers is an American far-right anti-government militia whose leaders have been convicted of violently opposing the government of the United States, including the transfer of Presidential power as prescribed by the US Constitution. ...
and the
Proud Boys The Proud Boys is an American far-right, neo-fascist, and exclusively male organization that promotes and engages in political violence in the United States.Far-right: * * Fascist: * * * * * Men only: * * * Political violence: * * * It has ...
.


Election and presidency of Donald Trump (2016–2020)

The
election of Donald Trump The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...
in 2016 was the most polarizing election since the
Civil War A civil war or intrastate war is a war between organized groups within the same state (or country). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government polici ...
. Speculation about a potential civil war began to circulate as a result. Some commentators assert that the rise of Trumpism constitutes either a form of nonviolent "Second Civil War," or a possible prelude to an actual civil war. Trump's actions and rhetoric with regards to race and
immigration Immigration is the international movement of people to a destination country of which they are not natives or where they do not possess citizenship in order to settle as permanent residents or naturalized citizens. Commuters, tourists, ...
have been highlighted for their potential to spark a civil war. In 2019,
Rebekah Mercer Rebekah Mercer is an American heiress and Republican political donor who is the director of the Mercer Family Foundation. She began overseeing day-to-day operations of political projects for the Mercer family when the Mercers became involved ...
, a Republican political donor who financed Trump's election win, stated that the country was not "yet in armed conflict" and then, she quoted part of Abraham Lincoln's
Gettysburg Address The Gettysburg Address is a speech that U.S. President Abraham Lincoln delivered during the American Civil War at the dedication of the Soldiers' National Cemetery, now known as Gettysburg National Cemetery, in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania on the ...
, "Now we are engaged in a great civil war". Mercer then said "One hundred and fifty-five years later, it is barely hyperbolic to echo the Great Emancipator.”


Sociopolitical crises in 2020

In 2020, the United States faced considerable social, economic and political challenges that exacerbated pre-existing divisions brought on by Trump's election. These conflicts were driven primarily by the
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identi ...
, civil unrest related to the
George Floyd protests The George Floyd protests were a series of protests and civil unrest against police brutality and racism that began in Minneapolis on May 26, 2020, and largely took place during 2020. The civil unrest and protests began as part of internat ...
, and the contentious
2020 United States presidential election The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala H ...
. Several political analysts have suggested that the fallout from these events caused significant division between everyday conservatives and liberals, adding that the United States strongly resembles countries that experienced civil wars in the past.


COVID-19 pandemic and response to health mandates

Controversy arose early in 2020 in regards to government health measures used to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. These included mask mandates, government-imposed lockdowns, and
stay-at-home order A stay-at-home order, safer-at-home order, movement control order (more common in Southeast Asia), or lockdown restrictions (in the United Kingdom) – also referred to by loose use of the terms (self-) quarantine, (self-) isolation, or lockdow ...
s intended to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Many
protests A protest (also called a demonstration, remonstration or remonstrance) is a public expression of objection, disapproval or dissent towards an idea or action, typically a political one. Protests can be thought of as acts of coopera ...
broke out from right-leaning and far-right groups, including armed militias, that perceived these mandates as a suspension of civil rights. The nationwide protests against COVID-19 measures resulted in some state capitols being stormed by militias, including in multiple times in
Michigan Michigan () is a state in the Great Lakes region of the upper Midwestern United States. With a population of nearly 10.12 million and an area of nearly , Michigan is the 10th-largest state by population, the 11th-largest by area, and t ...
and once in Oregon. Journalist John T. Bennett from ''
The Independent ''The Independent'' is a British online newspaper. It was established in 1986 as a national morning printed paper. Nicknamed the ''Indy'', it began as a broadsheet and changed to tabloid format in 2003. The last printed edition was publish ...
'' said anti-lockdown violence constituted a form of "Second Civil War" that would escalate division between rural conservatives and urban areas in the United States. Later, after his inauguration in 2021, President Joe Biden attempted to implement COVID-19 vaccination mandates. Some Trump supporters began flying solid black flags and black stylized American flags. These flags were historically used as a symbol of "
no quarter The phrase no quarter was generally used during military conflict to imply combatants would not be taken prisoner, but killed. According to some modern American dictionaries, a person who is given no quarter is "not treated kindly" or "treated ...
," where a winning side of a battle refused to spare the life of a vanquished opponent (the opposite of the
white flag White flags have had different meanings throughout history and depending on the locale. Contemporary use The white flag is an internationally recognized protective sign of truce or ceasefire, and for negotiation. It is also used to symbolize ...
of surrender). These flags were primarily flown by pirates in the 1800s and irregularly by Confederate troops during the
American Civil War The American Civil War (April 12, 1861 – May 26, 1865; also known by Names of the American Civil War, other names) was a civil war in the United States. It was fought between the Union (American Civil War), Union ("the North") and t ...
. Many commentators have interpreted these flags as an explicit threat of political violence and civil war.


George Floyd protests and race relations during Trump administration

Nationwide protests, civil unrest and riots against
police brutality Police brutality is the excessive and unwarranted use of force by law enforcement against an individual or a group. It is an extreme form of police misconduct and is a civil rights violation. Police brutality includes, but is not limited to ...
erupted in America as a reaction to widely circulated bystander videos that documented the
murder Murder is the unlawful killing of another human without justification or valid excuse, especially the unlawful killing of another human with malice aforethought. ("The killing of another person without justification or excuse, especially the ...
of an unarmed 46-year-old
black Black is a color which results from the absence or complete absorption of visible light. It is an achromatic color, without hue, like white and grey. It is often used symbolically or figuratively to represent darkness. Black and white ha ...
man named
George Floyd George Perry Floyd Jr. (October 14, 1973 – May 25, 2020) was an African-American man who was murdered by a police officer in Minneapolis, Minnesota, during an arrest made after a store clerk suspected Floyd may have used a counterfeit tw ...
by a
Minneapolis Minneapolis () is the largest city in Minnesota, United States, and the county seat of Hennepin County. The city is abundant in water, with thirteen lakes, wetlands, the Mississippi River, creeks and waterfalls. Minneapolis has its origin ...
police officer. Even though the movement was widely nonviolent, several protests escalated into riots in major U.S. cities, resulting in estimations of $2 billion in damages, the deaths of more than 19 people, and injuries to more than 2,000 police officers. Then-President Trump immediately characterized the movement as
anarchism Anarchism is a political philosophy and movement that is skeptical of all justifications for authority and seeks to abolish the institutions it claims maintain unnecessary coercion and hierarchy, typically including, though not neces ...
and labelled the rioters " Antifa" and " domestic terrorists." Trump pushed privately and publicly for a police or military "crackdown" against protestors to restore "law and order." According to White House officials, Trump was privately advocating for the military to shoot protestors. A proclamation invoking the Insurrection Act was drafted for Trump to deploy troops against protesters across the country, but was never used. Trump later denied any intention of invoking the act. Some former CIA analysts expressed fear that Trump's use of the military would trigger a national collapse. On June 1, 2020, Trump ordered the use of
tear gas Tear gas, also known as a lachrymator agent or lachrymator (), sometimes colloquially known as "mace" after the early commercial aerosol, is a chemical weapon that stimulates the nerves of the lacrimal gland in the eye to produce tears. In ...
against nonviolent protesters in Lafayette Square for a
photo op A photo op (sometimes written as photo opp), short for photograph opportunity (or photo opportunity), is an arranged opportunity to take a photograph of a politician, a celebrity, or a notable event.St. John's Episcopal Church. Many commentators at the time proclaimed this action as a strong indicator that the country was teetering towards a spike in civil violence.
King University King University is a private Presbyterian-affiliated university in Bristol, Tennessee. Founded in 1867, King is independently governed with covenant affiliations to the Presbyterian Church (USA) and the Evangelical Presbyterian Church (EPC). H ...
professor Gail Helt wrote: "I've seen this kind of violence.... This is what autocrats do. This is what happens in countries before a collapse. It really does unnerve me." Counterterrorism expert Marc Polymeropoulos compared Trump's response to the actions of dictators like
Bashar al-Assad Bashar Hafez al-Assad, ', Levantine pronunciation: ; (, born 11 September 1965) is a Syrian politician who is the 19th president of Syria, since 17 July 2000. In addition, he is the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Armed Forces and the ...
,
Saddam Hussein Saddam Hussein ( ; ar, صدام حسين, Ṣaddām Ḥusayn; 28 April 1937 – 30 December 2006) was an Iraqi politician who served as the fifth president of Iraq from 16 July 1979 until 9 April 2003. A leading member of the revolutio ...
, and
Muammar Gaddafi Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi, . Due to the lack of standardization of transcribing written and regionally pronounced Arabic, Gaddafi's name has been romanized in various ways. A 1986 column by '' The Straight Dope'' lists 32 spellin ...
. Other analysts criticized Trump for demanding that Republican governors "dominate the battlespace" of protest, as if he were describing a war zone, as well as Trump's intention to declare that the Antifa movement is a
terrorist organization A number of national governments and two international organizations have created lists of organizations that they designate as terrorist. The following list of designated terrorist groups lists groups designated as terrorist by current and fo ...
as a pretext for a military crackdown. Political scientist
Barbara F. Walter Barbara F. Walter is an American political scientist who is the Rohr Professor of International affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. She is known for her work on bargaining theory and po ...
labelled Trump an "ethnic entrepreneur" due to his response to these protests, and his stoking of
white nationalism White nationalism is a type of racial nationalism or pan-nationalism which espouses the belief that white people are a raceHeidi Beirich and Kevin Hicks. "Chapter 7: White nationalism in America". In Perry, Barbara. ''Hate Crimes''. Greenwood ...
. She claims that Trump's "fight sexpressly about isgroup's position and his status in society," which he perceives as being threatened by out-groups. Walter compares Trump's rhetoric to the dehumanizing tactics of
Slobodan Milošević Slobodan Milošević (, ; 20 August 1941 – 11 March 2006) was a Yugoslav and Serbian politician who was the president of Serbia within Yugoslavia from 1989 to 1997 (originally the Socialist Republic of Serbia, a constituent republic of ...
and
Franjo Tuđman Franjo Tuđman (; 14 May 1922 – 10 December 1999), also written as Franjo Tudjman, was a Croatian politician and historian. Following the country's independence from Yugoslavia, he became the first president of Croatia and served as p ...
, who helped stoke the
Yugoslav Wars The Yugoslav Wars were a series of separate but related Naimark (2003), p. xvii. ethnic conflicts, wars of independence, and insurgencies that took place in the SFR Yugoslavia from 1991 to 2001. The conflicts both led up to and resulted from ...
, Léon Mugesera, whose inflammatory anti-
Tutsi The Tutsi (), or Abatutsi (), are an ethnic group of the African Great Lakes region. They are a Bantu-speaking ethnic group and the second largest of three main ethnic groups in Rwanda and Burundi (the other two being the largest Bantu ethnic g ...
speech was a driving force behind the
Rwandan genocide The Rwandan genocide occurred between 7 April and 15 July 1994 during the Rwandan Civil War. During this period of around 100 days, members of the Tutsi minority ethnic group, as well as some moderate Hutu and Twa, were killed by armed Hutu ...
and the
Rwandan Civil War The Rwandan Civil War was a large-scale civil war in Rwanda which was fought between the Rwandan Armed Forces, representing the country's government, and the rebel Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) from 1October 1990 to 18 July 1994. The war aro ...
, or Omar al-Bashir, who helped start the
Second Sudanese Civil War The Second Sudanese Civil War was a conflict from 1983 to 2005 between the central Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army. It was largely a continuation of the First Sudanese Civil War of 1955 to 1972. Although it originated ...
. The demand for police reform by protesters also exacerbated tensions between citizens and several police departments throughout the country. In June 2020, a viral audio tape on which three police officers from
Wilmington, North Carolina Wilmington is a port city in and the county seat of New Hanover County in coastal southeastern North Carolina, United States. With a population of 115,451 at the 2020 census, it is the eighth most populous city in the state. Wilmington is t ...
, were heard using derogatory remarks when they described
black Americans African Americans (also referred to as Black Americans and Afro-Americans) are an ethnic group consisting of Americans with partial or total ancestry from sub-Saharan Africa. The term "African American" generally denotes descendants of ensla ...
, saying that "there should be another civil war to wipe them off the fucking map" was leaked. The three officers were fired after the completion of an investigation. On his first day on the job, Wilmington Police Chief Donny Williams condemned the incident and advocated police reform. It was later revealed that two of the officers had prior disciplinary issues, among them were some incidents which occurred in the 1990s.


Trump's refusal to concede the 2020 election

On numerous occasions throughout the 2020 presidential election, then-President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he wasn't re-elected. Trump began to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election by claiming widespread
election fraud Electoral fraud, sometimes referred to as election manipulation, voter fraud or vote rigging, involves illegal interference with the process of an election, either by increasing the vote share of a favored candidate, depressing the vote share of ...
by Democrats would lead to an illegitimate Biden win. Several commentators connected Trump's undermining of the election with increases in political violence by right-wing groups, stating that the 2020 election would result in an attempted coup or civil war. Some commentators compared it to the
election of 1860 The following elections occurred in the year 1860. Most notably, the 1860 United States presidential election was one of the events that precipitated the American Civil War. North America United States * California's at-large congressional dist ...
, which triggered the American Civil War. Historian Richard Stringer asserted that Trump's attempt to delegitimize the election was akin to a "fascist revolution." As the election approached, activist
Noam Chomsky Avram Noam Chomsky (born December 7, 1928) is an American public intellectual: a linguist, philosopher, cognitive scientist, historian, social critic, and political activist. Sometimes called "the father of modern linguistics", Chomsky i ...
warned a group at the
Progressive International The Progressive International is an international organization uniting and mobilizing progressive left-wing activists and organizations. Origins It was launched after the Democracy in Europe Movement (DiEM25) and The Sanders Institute announc ...
summit that without a "very clear Trump victory," the risk of civil war would be "imminent," stating: "They are strong words, which we have never heard in public voices. I am not saying it; other people are saying it. Many people have that fear. Nothing of this kind had happened in the complex history of
parliamentary democracy A parliamentary system, or parliamentarian democracy, is a system of democratic governance of a state (or subordinate entity) where the executive derives its democratic legitimacy from its ability to command the support ("confidence") of t ...
. The
megalomania Megalomania is an obsession with power and wealth, and a passion for grand schemes. Megalomania or megalomaniac may also refer to: Psychology * Narcissistic personality disorder * Grandiose delusions * Omnipotence (psychoanalysis), a stage ...
that dominates the world, that of Trump, for him is no longer enough. He could not respect the Constitution and lsodo what he calls 'negotiating' for a third term." Days prior to the election,
Sky News Sky News is a British free-to-air television news channel and organisation. Sky News is distributed via an English-language radio news service, and through online channels. It is owned by Sky Group, a division of Comcast. John Ryley is the he ...
reported a "run on guns" driven by many Americans from both political backgrounds in preparation for a possible civil war. Several suppliers of tactical gear and ammo saw a significant increase in sales.


The 2021 U.S. Capitol attack and calls for civil war by Trump supporters

After candidate Joe Biden was announced as the winner of the election, Trump refused to concede and attempted several times to overturn the election results in his favor, including reports of allegedly discussing
martial law Martial law is the imposition of direct military control of normal civil functions or suspension of civil law by a government, especially in response to an emergency where civil forces are overwhelmed, or in an occupied territory. Use Martia ...
to seize voting machines and hold a new election. When Trump's legal efforts to overturn the election results failed, he held a "Save America" rally in Washington, D.C., which brought thousands of his supporters to The Ellipse park on January 6, 2021, during the time the election results were being certified by Congress. Trump repeated unproven claims of election fraud and said, "If you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country any more." A mob of Trump supporters then attacked the
United States Capitol The United States Capitol, often called The Capitol or the Capitol Building, is the seat of the legislative branch of the United States federal government, which is formally known as the United States Congress. It is located on Capitol Hill ...
with the intent to overturn the election by disrupting the
joint session of Congress A joint session of the United States Congress is a gathering of members of the two chambers of the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States: the Senate and the House of Representatives. Joint sessions can be held ...
assembled to count electoral votes that would formalize then President-elect Joe Biden's victory. Discussion of civil war by Trump supporters began to circulate on social media in the days leading up to the attack, including on right-leaning platform
Parler Parler () is an American alt-tech social networking service associated with conservatives. Journalists have described Parler as an alt-tech alternative to Twitter, and users include those banned from mainstream social networks or who oppose t ...
. According to trend analysis, the online conversation of civil war intensified during Trump's speech, moments before the Capitol attack. Some participants in the attack wore shirts and carried signs that read "MAGA Civil War, January 6, 2021." These shirts were also sold online after the attack. Calls for a civil war also made their way into court filings for some of the arrested capitol rioters, with prosecutors alleging that rioters tried to incite a civil war.


= United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack

= The U.S. House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol is a
select committee Select committee may refer to: *Select committee (parliamentary system) A select committee is a committee made up of a small number of parliamentary members appointed to deal with particular areas or issues originating in the Westminster system o ...
of the U.S. House of Representatives to investigate the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Lloyd Green, a former Department of Justice official, stated in response to public hearings, that "The US careens through a cold civil war, its feet on the gas pedal, both hands clutching the accelerator." During the committee hearing on July 12, 2022, it was revealed that
Brad Parscale Brad Parscale (born January 3, 1976) is an American digital consultant and political advisor who served as the senior adviser for data and digital operations for Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign. He previously served as the digital med ...
, a Trump campaign manager, texted another aide the evening of January 6, 2021, stating that Trump's actions before and during the riot constituted "a sitting president asking for civil war."


Overturning of Roe v. Wade

In June 2022, the
Supreme Court of the United States The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. It has ultimate appellate jurisdiction over all U.S. Federal tribunals in the United States, federal court cases, and over Stat ...
overturned ''
Roe v. Wade ''Roe v. Wade'', 410 U.S. 113 (1973),. was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States conferred the right to have an abortion. The decision struck down many federal and st ...
,'' effectively challenging the constitutionality of legal
abortion Abortion is the termination of a pregnancy by removal or expulsion of an embryo or fetus. An abortion that occurs without intervention is known as a miscarriage or "spontaneous abortion"; these occur in approximately 30% to 40% of pre ...
access. Polling data consistently demonstrated that the ruling was deeply unpopular among most Americans. Some characterized it as the start of a "legal civil war" between states. Supporters of the ruling called the decision morally right, a "victory for unborn life," and a "celebration." Meanwhile, critics claimed the ruling was an undemocratic form of
Christian right The Christian right, or the religious right, are Christian political factions characterized by their strong support of socially conservative and traditionalist policies. Christian conservatives seek to influence politics and public policy with ...
minority rule In political science, minoritarianism (or minorityism) is a neologism for a political structure or process in which a minority segment of a population has a certain degree of primacy in that entity's decision making. Minoritarianism may be contr ...
that further destabilized democratic norms. Congresswoman
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (; ; born October 13, 1989), also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and activist. She has served as the U.S. representative for New York's 14th congressional district since 2019, as a member of ...
(D-N.Y.) called it the start of a judicial coup. Peter Flaherty, Chairman
National Legal and Policy Center The National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC) is a right-wing 501(c)(3) non-profit group that monitors and reports on the ethics of public officials, supporters of liberal causes, and labor unions in the United States. The Center files complaints wit ...
, called criticism of the court a slow-motion coup attempt by the left. The decision resulted in public celebration among conservatives, mass protests across the US, and condemnation from world leaders who characterized the decision as "appalling," "horrific," and "one of the darkest days for
women's rights Women's rights are the rights and entitlements claimed for women and girls worldwide. They formed the basis for the women's rights movement in the 19th century and the feminist movements during the 20th and 21st centuries. In some countri ...
." During his presidency, Donald Trump appointed three justices to the Supreme Court:
Brett Kavanaugh Brett Michael Kavanaugh ( ; born February 12, 1965) is an American lawyer and jurist serving as an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. He was nominated by President Donald Trump on July 9, 2018, and has served since O ...
,
Neil Gorsuch Neil McGill Gorsuch ( ; born August 29, 1967) is an American lawyer and judge who serves as an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. He was nominated by President Donald Trump on January 31, 2017, and has served since ...
and
Amy Coney Barrett Amy Vivian Coney Barrett (born January 28, 1972) is an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. The fifth woman to serve on the court, she was nominated by President Donald Trump and has served since October 27, 2020. ...
, giving the court a conservative majority. On May 2, 2022, a draft
majority opinion In law, a majority opinion is a judicial opinion agreed to by more than half of the members of a court. A majority opinion sets forth the decision of the court and an explanation of the rationale behind the court's decision. Not all cases hav ...
from the
Supreme Court A supreme court is the highest court within the hierarchy of courts in most legal jurisdictions. Other descriptions for such courts include court of last resort, apex court, and high (or final) court of appeal. Broadly speaking, the decisions of ...
case ''
Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ''Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization'', , is a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the court held that the Constitution of the United States does not confer a right to abortion. The court's decision overruled both ''Ro ...
,'' written by Justice
Samuel Alito Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. ( ; born April 1, 1950) is an American lawyer and jurist who serves as an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. He was nominated by President George W. Bush on October 31, 2005, and has serve ...
'','' leaked to
Politico ''Politico'' (stylized in all caps), known originally as ''The Politico'', is an American, German-owned political journalism newspaper company based in Arlington County, Virginia, that covers politics and policy in the United States and intern ...
and was published online. The opinion was later ruled on June 24, 2022, overturning ''
Roe v. Wade ''Roe v. Wade'', 410 U.S. 113 (1973),. was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States conferred the right to have an abortion. The decision struck down many federal and st ...
'' and ''
Planned Parenthood v. Casey ''Planned Parenthood v. Casey'', 505 U.S. 833 (1992), was a landmark case of the Supreme Court of the United States in which the Court upheld the right to have an abortion as established by the "essential holding" of ''Roe v. Wade'' (1973) and is ...
,'' effectively making
abortion Abortion is the termination of a pregnancy by removal or expulsion of an embryo or fetus. An abortion that occurs without intervention is known as a miscarriage or "spontaneous abortion"; these occur in approximately 30% to 40% of pre ...
illegal in at least 26 states due to trigger laws and opening up the conversation for a federal ban on abortion. Democratic-led states responding by protecting abortion rights (the state governments of
California California is a state in the Western United States, located along the Pacific Coast. With nearly 39.2million residents across a total area of approximately , it is the most populous U.S. state and the 3rd largest by area. It is also the m ...
,
New York New York most commonly refers to: * New York City, the most populous city in the United States, located in the state of New York * New York (state), a state in the northeastern United States New York may also refer to: Film and television * '' ...
and
Vermont Vermont () is a U.S. state, state in the northeast New England region of the United States. Vermont is bordered by the states of Massachusetts to the south, New Hampshire to the east, and New York (state), New York to the west, and the Provin ...
are seeking to enshrine the right to an abortion in their state constitutions). Meanwhile, Republican-led states began to make abortion effectively illegal. (
Missouri Missouri is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States. Ranking 21st in land area, it is bordered by eight states (tied for the most with Tennessee): Iowa to the north, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee to the east, Arkansas t ...
, for example, is seeking to allow citizens to sue out-of-state providers.) The ensuing legal infighting between states has been characterized as the most divisive moment in American history since right before the
American Civil War The American Civil War (April 12, 1861 – May 26, 1865; also known by Names of the American Civil War, other names) was a civil war in the United States. It was fought between the Union (American Civil War), Union ("the North") and t ...
. Some have compared the ruling to the 1857 Supreme Court decision of
Dred Scott v. Sandford ''Dred Scott v. Sandford'', 60 U.S. (19 How.) 393 (1857), was a landmark decision of the United States Supreme Court that held the U.S. Constitution did not extend American citizenship to people of black African descent, enslaved or free; th ...
, which helped start the civil war four years later. Historian Ariela J. Gross summarized the crisis by calling it a "failure of
comity In law, comity is "a practice among different political entities (as countries, states, or courts of different jurisdictions)" involving the " mutual recognition of legislative, executive, and judicial acts." Etymology Comity derives from th ...
" between states, noting: “you owhave these really stark differences over an issue involving a fundamental right, and that’s what happened in the years leading up to the Civil War.” Throughout their individual confirmation hearings, each conservative justice, including
Clarence Thomas Clarence Thomas (born June 23, 1948) is an American jurist who serves as an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. He was nominated by President George H. W. Bush to succeed Thurgood Marshall and has served since 1 ...
, stated that abortion laws had precedent and that there was no political agenda to overturn them. The ruling in context of these public statements fed into the political firestorm, with some Democratic leaders demanding that the justices be
impeached Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body or other legally constituted tribunal initiates charges against a public official for misconduct. It may be understood as a unique process involving both political and legal elements. In ...
for
perjury Perjury (also known as foreswearing) is the intentional act of swearing a false oath or falsifying an affirmation to tell the truth, whether spoken or in writing, concerning matters material to an official proceeding."Perjury The act or an inst ...
. High-ranking Democrats, including President Biden and House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi Nancy Patricia Pelosi (; ; born March 26, 1940) is an American politician who has served as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives since 2019 and previously from 2007 to 2011. She has represented in the United States House of ...
, claimed such a ruling threatened to destabilize national law, and characterized it as
far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of being ...
, extremist, radical, politically motivated, unconstitutional and dangerous.
Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...
said the decision would "kill and subjugate women." Meanwhile, conservative leaders condemned the unprecedented leak of Supreme Court brief, with some depicting it as a left-wing
insurrection Rebellion, uprising, or insurrection is a refusal of obedience or order. It refers to the open resistance against the orders of an established authority. A rebellion originates from a sentiment of indignation and disapproval of a situation and ...
similar to or worse than the January 6 attack. Other conservatives characterized the leak as a coordinated "attack" and form of left-wing terrorism meant to trigger civil violence with the intention of intimidating the justices to renege on the ruling. ''
The Daily Wire ''The Daily Wire'' is an American conservative news website and media company founded in 2015 by political commentator Ben Shapiro and film director Jeremy Boreing. The company is a major publisher on Facebook, and produces podcasts such as ...
'' contributor Matt Walsh, a conservative political commentator, said the political fallout of the leak could "potentially plunge the nation into civil war," while former Bush aide Lloyd Green stated that a "neo-Confederate spirit" was emerging amongst far-right Republicans and that "America's cold civil war just got really hot." A few days prior to the leak, Stephen Marche, who warned of a second civil war after the January 6 attacks, stated that overturning Roe v. Wade was the kind of event that could act as a watershed moment. Comparing such legal action to resignation of
Andrew Magrath Andrew Gordon Magrath (February 8, 1813 – April 9, 1893) was the last Governor of South Carolina under the Confederate States of America, a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of South Carolina and ...
prior to the Civil War, Marche concluded: "From that moment on, there were two legal systems. All that remained was the war. A similar breakdown in the legal system of the United States is already apparent." After the overturning of Roe became official, Marche went further, stating: "The question is no longer whether there will be a civil conflict in the United States. The question is how the sides will divide, what their strengths and weaknesses are, and how those strengths and weaknesses will determine the outcome." Michael Schaffer, senior editor at Politico, speculated that overturning Roe v. Wade has the potential of ''"two-nationing"'' the country by triggering mass immigration and the relocation of businesses along political lines, which could accelerate an "animus" for civil war. Noting that such a division doesn't "doom" the country, Schaffer observes that interstate migration currently means nominal changes such as "marginally different tax rates," but "if the ruling takes place along the lines of Justice Samuel Alito’s draft, there immediately will be an enormous practical difference between living in most red states and most blue ones. On one side of the line, you have a right; on the other, you don’t." Rachel Rebouché, dean of law at Philadelphia's
Temple University Temple University (Temple or TU) is a public state-related research university in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was founded in 1884 by the Baptist minister Russell Conwell and his congregation Grace Baptist Church of Philadelphia then calle ...
, agreed, stating: " he rulingreally strikes at the heart of the kind of cooperation and comity that states have had in the U.S., and it speaks to the divisions that are going to erupt that were the hallmark of the Civil War." In response to the draft decision, former
Secretary of Labor The United States Secretary of Labor is a member of the Cabinet of the United States, and as the head of the United States Department of Labor, controls the department, and enforces and suggests laws involving unions, the workplace, and all o ...
Robert Reich Robert Bernard Reich (; born June 24, 1946) is an American professor, author, lawyer, and political commentator. He worked in the administrations of Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, and served as Secretary of Labor from 1993 to 1997 in ...
stated that the "second American civil war is already occurring," but said its current state is not a hot war but a national "divorce," wherein parties struggle to find a way to be "civil toward each other." Reich stated the court decision will accelerate the division between two population segments: the "largely urban, racially and ethnically diverse, and young" and "the rural or exurban, white and old," creating "two versions of America."


Investigation into Trump's mishandling of Top Secret Documents (2022)

In August 2022, it was revealed that Trump was under investigation by the
Federal Bureau of Investigation The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is the domestic intelligence and security service of the United States and its principal federal law enforcement agency. Operating under the jurisdiction of the United States Department of Justice ...
(FBI) for potential
obstruction of justice Obstruction of justice, in United States jurisdictions, is an act that involves unduly influencing, impeding, or otherwise interfering with the justice system, especially the legal and procedural tasks of prosecutors, investigators, or other gov ...
and violation of the
Espionage Act The Espionage Act of 1917 is a United States federal law enacted on June 15, 1917, shortly after the United States entered World War I. It has been amended numerous times over the years. It was originally found in Title 50 of the U.S. Code (War ...
for allegedly taking TS/SCI (Top Secret / Sensitive Compartmented Information) government documents with him to his residence in Mar-a-Lago after leaving the White House. The Washington Post reported that at least some of the documents were related to
nuclear weapons A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (fission bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions ( thermonuclear bomb), producing a nuclear explosion. Both bom ...
. The investigation came to light days after the FBI executed a search warrant, personally approved by Attorney General
Merrick Garland Merrick Brian Garland (born November 13, 1952) is an American lawyer and jurist serving since March 2021 as the 86th United States attorney general. He previously served as a U.S. circuit judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of ...
, at Trump's
Mar-a-Lago Mar-a-Lago ( from the Spanish for ''sea to lake'') is a resort and national historic landmark in Palm Beach, Florida, owned by former U.S. president Donald Trump. Trump acquired Mar-a-Lago in 1985 and referred to it as his "Winter White House ...
residence to retain the documents. The resulting political firestorm resulted in a spike of violent rhetoric among Trump supporters, including renewed calls for a second civil war. Trump himself took to
Truth Social Truth Social (stylized as TRUTH Social) is a social media platform created by Trump Media & Technology Group, an American media and technology company founded in October 2021 by former U.S. president Donald Trump. It has been called a competito ...
to decry the investigation as a form of political persecution, making unfounded claims of evidence planting then later claiming the documents in question were
declassified Declassification is the process of ceasing a protective classification, often under the principle of freedom of information. Procedures for declassification vary by country. Papers may be withheld without being classified as secret, and event ...
. The search was broadly characterized by conservative leaders as a form of
political repression Political repression is the act of a state entity controlling a citizenry by force for political reasons, particularly for the purpose of restricting or preventing the citizenry's ability to take part in the political life of a society, thereby ...
and an attempt to stop Trump from running for president in 2024. On the day the FBI search was revealed by Trump the term "#civilwar" started trending on Twitter. Terms such as "civil war" and "lock and load" also spiked online among
far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of being ...
users on platforms such as
Truth Social Truth Social (stylized as TRUTH Social) is a social media platform created by Trump Media & Technology Group, an American media and technology company founded in October 2021 by former U.S. president Donald Trump. It has been called a competito ...
, Gab and
Telegram Telegraphy is the long-distance transmission of messages where the sender uses symbolic codes, known to the recipient, rather than a physical exchange of an object bearing the message. Thus flag semaphore is a method of telegraphy, whereas ...
, echoing similar online trends prior to the January 6 riots. Some pro-Trump online message boards specifically referenced the 1992 Ruby Ridge standoff and the 1995 Oklahoma City terrorist attack. Violent rhetoric also spiked among Republican politicians and mainstream conservatives, including influencer
Steven Crowder Steven Blake Crowder ( ; born July 7, 1987) is an American-Canadian conservative political commentator and media host. Early in his career, Crowder worked for Fox News and posted satirical videos on conservative media platforms. He then began ...
who tweeted: "Tomorrow is war. Sleep well." to his 2 million followers (though he later clarified that was not calling for "literal" violence). Meanwhile, Florida Republican nominee
Laura Loomer Laura Elizabeth Loomer (born May 21, 1993) is an American far-right and anti-Muslim political activist, white nationalist, conspiracy theorist, and internet personality. She was the Republican nominee to represent Florida's 21st congressional ...
told her followers on Telegram: "If you're a freedom loving American, you must remove the Words decorum and civility from your vocabulary. This is a WAR! And it's time to obliterate these
communists Communism (from Latin la, communis, lit=common, universal, label=none) is a far-left sociopolitical, philosophical, and economic ideology and current within the socialist movement whose goal is the establishment of a communist society, a s ...
. Tonight they attacked President Donald Trump. If you sit on the sidelines and refuse to act, they will attack you and your family next." As a result of the spike in violent rhetoric the FBI began investigating an "unprecedented" number of threats against the bureau, including plots for armed rebellion, "general civil war," targeted assassination of government officials, and at least one plot using a
dirty bomb A dirty bomb or radiological dispersal device is a radiological weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. The purpose of the weapon is to contaminate the area around the dispersal agent/conventional explosion with ...
. Trump supporters gathered in protest in front of Mar-a-Lago and in front of FBI offices in
Phoenix, Arizona Phoenix ( ; nv, Hoozdo; es, Fénix or , yuf-x-wal, Banyà:nyuwá) is the List of capitals in the United States, capital and List of cities and towns in Arizona#List of cities and towns, most populous city of the U.S. state of Arizona, with 1 ...
and Washington D.C.. Over the next couple days, additional protests continued outside Mar-a-Lago and outside FBI offices in
Columbia, South Carolina Columbia is the capital of the U.S. state of South Carolina. With a population of 136,632 at the 2020 census, it is the second-largest city in South Carolina. The city serves as the county seat of Richland County, and a portion of the cit ...
, Myrtle Beach,
Palm Springs Palm Springs (Cahuilla: ''Séc-he'') is a desert resort city in Riverside County, California, United States, within the Colorado Desert's Coachella Valley. The city covers approximately , making it the largest city in Riverside County by land ...
and
Riverside, California Riverside is a city in and the county seat of Riverside County, California, United States, in the Inland Empire metropolitan area. It is named for its location beside the Santa Ana River. It is the most populous city in the Inland Empire an ...
. One Trump supporter posted a call to war on social media before attempting to breach an FBI field office in
Cincinnati Cincinnati ( ) is a city in the U.S. state of Ohio and the county seat of Hamilton County. Settled in 1788, the city is located at the northern side of the confluence of the Licking and Ohio rivers, the latter of which marks the state line w ...
where he was fatally shot by law enforcement officials after attempting to flee the scene. Another supporter in
Mercer County, Pennsylvania Mercer County is a county in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. As of the 2020 census, the population was 110,652. Its county seat is Mercer, and its largest city is Hermitage. The county was created in 1800 and later organized in 1803. Merc ...
was arrested for threatening to kill FBI agents. Another individual drove his car into a barricade outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., fired shots in the air, then committed suicide as police approached him, though motive was unclear. In response to the spike in violence, Trump allegedly sent a cryptic message to Garland, stating: “The country is on fire. What can I do to reduce the heat?" Trump later warned that his supporters were "angry" and that "terrible things are going to happen" because "the people of this country are not going to stand for another scam." Some interpreted Trump's remarks a veiled threat. Robert Maguire, a research director at the nonpartisan
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) and nonpartisan U.S. government ethics and accountability watchdog organization.''Washington Information Directory 2017-2018''; CQ Press; 2017; Pg. 327 Founded ...
, for example, characterized Trump's rhetoric as threatening to "fan the flames of violence" if the FBI didn't relent in their investigation. Trump reiterated his warning in September during an interview with conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewit, stating Americans would not tolerate his indictment, and that the country would face “problems the likes of which perhaps we’ve never seen" if it happened. Asked if he felt his comment might incite people to violence, Trump responded: "That’s not inciting. I’m just saying what my opinion is. I don’t think the people of this country would stand for it.” As the investigation heated up towards the end of August, Trump later went on Truth Social to call to be reinstated as president or hold a "new election," while also asking some FBI agents to "not take it anymore" and go "nuts." Trump also demanded that the Department of Justice stop investigating him, and characterized alleged underreporting of the Hunter Biden laptop controversy as evidence of election interference by the FBI. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R - S.C.) suggested there would be "riots in the street" if Trump is criminally indicted.


Battle for the Soul of the Nation speech

On September 1, 2022,
President President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) * President (education), a leader of a college or university * President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese ...
Joe Biden gave a
prime-time Prime time or the peak time is the block of broadcast programming taking place during the middle of the evening for a television show. It is mostly targeted towards adults (and sometimes families). It is used by the major television networks to ...
speech at
Independence Hall Independence Hall is a historic civic building in Philadelphia, where both the United States Declaration of Independence and the United States Constitution were debated and adopted by America's Founding Fathers. The structure forms the centerpi ...
in
Philadelphia Philadelphia, often called Philly, is the largest city in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the sixth-largest city in the U.S., the second-largest city in both the Northeast megalopolis and Mid-Atlantic regions after New York City. Since ...
. In the speech, Biden characterized Trump and "MAGA Republicans" as stoking political violence, and labelling them a threat to "the very foundations of our republic." The speech was noted for deviating from Biden's typical approach towards compromise and
bipartisanship Bipartisanship, sometimes referred to as nonpartisanship, is a political situation, usually in the context of a two-party system (especially those of the United States and some other western countries), in which opposing political parties find co ...
. For several weeks prior to the speech Biden had also begun to characterize the extreme wings of the Republican Party as
fascist Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultra-nationalist political ideology and movement,: "extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political and cultural liberalism, a belief in natural social hierarchy and the ...
. Some observers remarked that the speech took a "wartime" urgency evoking concerns of a second American Civil War. In response to the speech, far-right actors renewed calls for a civil war.
MSNBC MSNBC (originally the Microsoft National Broadcasting Company) is an American news-based pay television cable channel. It is owned by NBCUniversala subsidiary of Comcast. Headquartered in New York City, it provides news coverage and political ...
journalist
Tiffany Cross Tiffany D. Cross (born February 6, 1979) is an American television personality, political analyst, and author. From 2020 to 2022, she was the host of ''The Cross Connection'', a Saturday morning MSNBC show. Early life and education Cross was ...
stated a civil war "may have already begun" in response to the speech. Some speculated that the speech came out of a meeting Biden held with several historians a few weeks prior, many of whom warned the President that the current political climate echoed that of pre-Civil War America, as well as that of the 1930s and 1940s by pro-fascist movements before
World War II World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the World War II by country, vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great power ...
. Many Democrats praised the speech, while most Republicans condemned the speech as either offensive, divisive or evil. Some Congressional leaders characterized Biden as a
dictator A dictator is a political leader who possesses absolute power. A dictatorship is a state ruled by one dictator or by a small clique. The word originated as the title of a Roman dictator elected by the Roman Senate to rule the republic in time ...
similar to
Adolf Hitler Adolf Hitler (; 20 April 188930 April 1945) was an Austrian-born German politician who was dictator of Germany from 1933 until his death in 1945. He rose to power as the leader of the Nazi Party, becoming the chancellor in 1933 and the ...
. Trump himself called Biden an "enemy of the state." Some Trump supporters called for political violence, including
assassination Assassination is the murder of a prominent or important person, such as a head of state, head of government, politician, world leader, member of a royal family or CEO. The murder of a celebrity, activist, or artist, though they may not have ...
of Biden, Attorney General
Merrick Garland Merrick Brian Garland (born November 13, 1952) is an American lawyer and jurist serving since March 2021 as the 86th United States attorney general. He previously served as a U.S. circuit judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of ...
, Treasury Secretary
Janet Yellen Janet Louise Yellen (born August 13, 1946) is an American economist serving as the 78th United States secretary of the treasury since January 26, 2021. She previously served as the 15th chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018. Yellen is ...
and Secretary
Alejandro Mayorkas Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas (born November 24, 1959) is a Cuban-American government official and attorney who has been serving as the seventh United States Secretary of Homeland Security since February 2, 2021. During the Obama administration, h ...
.


Attempts to foment a Second Civil War

In the late 1960s,
Charles Manson Charles Milles Manson (; November 12, 1934November 19, 2017) was an American criminal and musician who led the Manson Family, a cult based in California, in the late 1960s. Some of the members committed a series of nine murders at four loca ...
, a
white supremacist White supremacy or white supremacism is the belief that white people are superior to those of other races and thus should dominate them. The belief favors the maintenance and defense of any power and privilege held by white people. White s ...
, led the Manson Family into becoming a
doomsday cult A doomsday cult is a cult, that believes in apocalypticism and millenarianism, including both those that predict disaster and those that attempt to destroy the entire universe. Sociologist John Lofland coined the term ''doomsday cult'' in his ...
fixated on the idea of an imminent apocalyptic race war between America's Black population and the larger White population. Manson told some of the Manson Family that Black people in America would rise up and kill all White people except for Manson and his "Family", but that they were not intelligent enough to survive on their own; they would need a White man to lead them, and so they would serve Manson as their "master". Various murders and other crimes attributed to the Manson Family have been examined as part of a scheme to incite a national race war of the type envisioned.


Lone wolf attempts to trigger a racial civil war

There have been a handful of mass shootings which were motivated, in part, by an attempt to trigger a second civil war. These shootings were lone wolf attacks which were exclusively perpetrated by far-right white supremacists who typically targeted Black or Jewish neighborhoods, Democratic politicians, or critical infrastructure. They include: * The 2015 Charleston church shooting * The 2018 Pittsburgh synagogue shooting * The 2019 El Paso shooting * The 2022 Buffalo shooting


Militia movement and attempts to trigger civil war

There have also been more organized attempts beyond lone wolf terrorism by far-right militias: * In late 2020, 14 members of the Wolverine Watchmen, an offshoot of the Michigan Militia, were arrested for plotting to kidnap the Governor of Michigan in an effort to start a second civil war that would "lead to societal collapse." * A U.S. intelligence report claimed that the
Boogaloo movement The boogaloo movement, whose adherents are often referred to as boogaloo boys or boogaloo bois, is a loosely organized far-right anti-government extremist movement in the United States. It has also been described as a militia. Adherents say th ...
, a far-right accelerationist group, was active in the George Floyd protests. This movement included both radical antigovernmental activists and white supremacists who seek to undermine race relations in order to trigger a second civil war. * In January 2022, former Army veteran Christopher Arthur of
Mount Olive, North Carolina Mount Olive is a town in Duplin and Wayne counties in the U.S. state of North Carolina. The population was 4,589 at the 2010 census. It is included in the Goldsboro, North Carolina Metropolitan Statistical Area. The town is home to the Mt. Ol ...
was arrested by the
Department of Justice A justice ministry, ministry of justice, or department of justice is a ministry or other government agency in charge of the administration of justice. The ministry or department is often headed by a minister of justice (minister for justice in a ...
for "teaching another individual how to make and use an explosive, knowing that the individual intended to use that instruction in the attempted murder of federal law enforcement." Law enforcement claimed Arthur had been training a "militia extremist" named Joshua Blessed, who was urging people to "repent of sins, and live and die for Yahweh as one of his soldiers" in a second civil war. Blessed was killed in a shootout with police in 2020 after a chase, and cell phone data showed he was working with Arthur to learn how to build and use IEDs. Arthur claimed to be training civilians to prepare for a civil war. * In February 2022, the Department of Justice arrested three white supremacists for an alleged plot to attack the power grid in three sections of the country with the intent to trigger civil war along racial lines.


Accusations of Antifa-led civil war

In October 2017, a conspiracy theory claiming that antifa groups were planning a violent insurrection or civil war the following month spread on
YouTube YouTube is a global online video sharing and social media platform headquartered in San Bruno, California. It was launched on February 14, 2005, by Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, and Jawed Karim. It is owned by Google, and is the second mo ...
and was advanced by far-right figures including
Alex Jones Alexander Emerick Jones (born February 11, 1974) is an American far-right and alt-right radio show host and prominent conspiracy theorist. He hosts ''The Alex Jones Show'' from Austin, Texas, which the Genesis Communications Network broadcas ...
, Lucian Wintrich,
Paul Joseph Watson Paul Joseph Watson (born 24 May 1982) is a British far-right YouTuber, radio host, and conspiracy theorist. Until July 2016, Watson embraced the label "alt-right", but he now identifies as part of the new right. In May 2019, Facebook and Instag ...
, and
Steven Crowder Steven Blake Crowder ( ; born July 7, 1987) is an American-Canadian conservative political commentator and media host. Early in his career, Crowder worked for Fox News and posted satirical videos on conservative media platforms. He then began ...
. The basis for the conspiracy theory was a series of
protests against Donald Trump Protests against Donald Trump have occurred in the United States, Europe and elsewhere from his entry into the 2016 presidential campaign to his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Protests have expressed opposition to Trum ...
organized by the group
Refuse Fascism Refuse Fascism is a U.S.-based anti-fascist coalition organization, led by the Revolutionary Communist Party, USA. Until the 2020 United States presidential election, it was characterized by its call for the removal of the Trump administration by ...
. The protests passed off as planned without causing significant disruption.


Discussion about a civil war at Trump rallies

There have been a few recorded instances in which Trump's supporters either predicted or threatened to wage a second civil war during several of Trump's rallies, particularly after Trump lost the 2020 election. "Civil War" trended again on Twitter in 2021 after a video of a Trump supporter predicting civil war at an Iowa rally went viral. MSNBC reporter Gary Grumbach added that the supporter's call for civil war was echoed at several Trump rallies as a general consensus.


Conroe, Texas Rally

A Trump rally in
Conroe, Texas Conroe is a city in and the county seat of Montgomery County, Texas, United States, about north of Houston. It is a  principal city in the metropolitan area. As of 2021, the population was 98,081, up from 56,207 in 2010. Since 2007, the ...
on Jan. 29, 2022, drew significant attention when Donald Trump openly criticized the
United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack The United States House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (the January 6th Committee) is a bipartisan select committee of the U.S. House of Representatives established to investigate the U.S. ...
, which was considering a criminal referral in relation to Trump's connection to the attack, and several investigators who were looking into his conduct during the 2020 election. Trump claimed Fulton County district attorney,
Fani Willis Fani Taifa Willis (, born October 27, 1971) is an American attorney from the state of Georgia. She is the district attorney of Fulton County, Georgia, which contains most of Atlanta. She is the first woman to hold the office of Fulton County dist ...
, New York Attorney General
Letitia James Letitia Ann James (born October 18, 1958) is an American lawyer and politician. She is a member of the Democratic Party and the current Attorney General of New York, having won the 2018 election to succeed appointed Attorney General Barbara U ...
, prosecutor Alvin Bragg, and Rep.
Bennie Thompson Bennie Gordon Thompson (born January 28, 1948) is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for since 1993. A member of the Democratic Party, Thompson has been the chair of the Committee on Homeland Security since 2019 and fr ...
(D - Miss.), chairman of the select committee, were racists. Trump stated: "If these radical, vicious, racist prosecutors do anything wrong or illegal, I hope we are going have, in this country, the biggest protest we have ever had in Washington, D.C., in New York, in Atlanta, and elsewhere, because our country and our elections are corrupt." Many commentators pointed out that Trump's rhetoric around race was particularly troubling, and interpreted it as an attempt to undermine the criminal investigations. Willis, who stated she began to receive racist threats after the Conroe rally, requested security assistance from the FBI field office in Atlanta. Trump also claimed that supporters who were arrested in relation to the January 6 riot were being "treated so unfairly," suggesting that he will offer presidential pardons to rioters if he is re-elected in 2024. Trump further claimed that all investigations into his personal conduct, as well as investigations into
The Trump Organization The Trump Organization is a Conglomerate (company), group of about 500 business entities of which Donald Trump is the sole or principal owner. Around 250 of these entities use the Trump name. The organization was founded in 1927 by Donald Trum ...
, were an ongoing organized conspiracy "to put me in jail." Writing for the ''
Philadelphia Inquirer ''The Philadelphia Inquirer'' is a daily newspaper headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The newspaper's circulation is the largest in both the U.S. state of Pennsylvania and the Delaware Valley metropolitan region of Southeastern Penns ...
'', columnist Will Bunch interpreted the Conroe rally as unlike prior rallies, noting: "Trump's incendiary remarks in Conroe sound like a call for a new civil war — naming both the locales and the
casus belli A (; ) is an act or an event that either provokes or is used to justify a war. A ''casus belli'' involves direct offenses or threats against the nation declaring the war, whereas a ' involves offenses or threats against its ally—usually one ...
."


Florence, South Carolina Rally

In March 2022, Trump again drew significant attention when he told supporters to "lay down their lives," stating:
Getting
critical race theory Critical race theory (CRT) is a cross-disciplinary examination, by social and civil-rights scholars and activists, of how laws, social and political movements, and media shape, and are shaped by, social conceptions of race and ethnicity. Goa ...
out of our schools is not just a matter of values, it's also a matter of national survival. We have no choice…. The fate of any nation ultimately depends upon the willingness of its citizens to lay down — and they must do this — lay down their very lives to defend their country…. If we allow the
Marxists Marxism is a left-wing to far-left method of socioeconomic analysis that uses a materialist interpretation of historical development, better known as historical materialism, to understand class relations and social conflict and a dialectical ...
and
communists Communism (from Latin la, communis, lit=common, universal, label=none) is a far-left sociopolitical, philosophical, and economic ideology and current within the socialist movement whose goal is the establishment of a communist society, a s ...
and
socialists Socialism is a left-wing economic philosophy and movement encompassing a range of economic systems characterized by the dominance of social ownership of the means of production as opposed to private ownership. As a term, it describes the econ ...
to teach our children to hate America, there will be no one left to defend our
flag A flag is a piece of fabric (most often rectangular or quadrilateral) with a distinctive design and colours. It is used as a symbol, a signalling device, or for decoration. The term ''flag'' is also used to refer to the graphic design empl ...
or protect our great country or its freedom.
Some commentators stated that Trump's language was incendiary because it was provoking the start of a civil war along racial lines.


Online attempts to foment civil war

Limited digital efforts to spark or show support for a civil war have also occurred; the hashtags #CivilWar2 and #CivilWarSignup, for instance, trended on
Twitter Twitter is an online social media and social networking service owned and operated by American company Twitter, Inc., on which users post and interact with 280-character-long messages known as "tweets". Registered users can post, like, and ...
in support of comments which were made by
United States President The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United Stat ...
Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
following his
impeachment Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body or other legally constituted tribunal initiates charges against a public official for misconduct. It may be understood as a unique process involving both political and legal elements. In ...
by the
House of Representatives House of Representatives is the name of legislative bodies in many countries and sub-national entitles. In many countries, the House of Representatives is the lower house of a bicameral legislature, with the corresponding upper house often c ...
in December 2019.


Motivation for starting a civil war

A proliferation of
conspiracy theories A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful groups, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources: * * * * The term has a nega ...
involving domestic actors, like the deep state, the
great replacement The Great Replacement (french: links=no, Grand Remplacement), also known as replacement theory or great replacement theory, is a white nationalist far-right conspiracy theoryPT71 disseminated by French author Renaud Camus. The original theor ...
, and the
QAnon QAnon ( , ) is an American political conspiracy theory and political movement. It originated in the American far-right political sphere in 2017. QAnon centers on fabricated claims made by an anonymous individual or individuals known as "Q". ...
movement, have been argued as factors that could spark a civil war. Former
Secretary of Labor The United States Secretary of Labor is a member of the Cabinet of the United States, and as the head of the United States Department of Labor, controls the department, and enforces and suggests laws involving unions, the workplace, and all o ...
Robert Reich Robert Bernard Reich (; born June 24, 1946) is an American professor, author, lawyer, and political commentator. He worked in the administrations of Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, and served as Secretary of Labor from 1993 to 1997 in ...
has argued that deep state theories could serve as an ideological justification for an
insurgency An insurgency is a violent, armed rebellion against authority waged by small, lightly armed bands who practice guerrilla warfare from primarily rural base areas. The key descriptive feature of insurgency is its asymmetric nature: small irr ...
supported by the
U.S. Armed Forces The United States Armed Forces are the military forces of the United States. The armed forces consists of six service branches: the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard. The president of the United States is the ...
. Political scientist and specialist in civil wars
Barbara F. Walter Barbara F. Walter is an American political scientist who is the Rohr Professor of International affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. She is known for her work on bargaining theory and po ...
has argued that an increase in
domestic terrorism Domestic terrorism or homegrown terrorism is a form of terrorism in which victims "within a country are targeted by a perpetrator with the same citizenship" as the victims.Gary M. Jackson, ''Predicting Malicious Behavior: Tools and Techniques ...
(such as the 2018 Pittsburgh synagogue shooting) and a high rate of
gun violence in the United States Gun violence in the United States results in tens of thousands of deaths and injuries annually, and was the leading cause of death for children 19 and younger in 2020. In 2018, the most recent year for which data are available as of 2021, th ...
could be indicators of an impending second civil war. Citing the QAnon conspiracy movement and
Alex Jones Alexander Emerick Jones (born February 11, 1974) is an American far-right and alt-right radio show host and prominent conspiracy theorist. He hosts ''The Alex Jones Show'' from Austin, Texas, which the Genesis Communications Network broadcas ...
specifically, Walter notes: "those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
Saqib Bhatti Mohammad Saqib Bhatti (born 18 June 1985) is a British Conservative Party politician who has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Meriden since the 2019 general election. He has been the Vice Chairman of the Conservative Party for Business ...
, the co-executive director of the Action Center on Race & the Economy, claims that "civil war rhetoric" is being stoked by "fascist billionaires" who have "bankrolled and fueled the rise of violent white supremacist and authoritarian forces in this country.” Bhatti points to the Mercer family specifically for helping fuel hate by funding Donald Trump,
Parler Parler () is an American alt-tech social networking service associated with conservatives. Journalists have described Parler as an alt-tech alternative to Twitter, and users include those banned from mainstream social networks or who oppose t ...
, and
Cambridge Analytica Cambridge Analytica Ltd (CA), previously known as SCL USA, was a British political consulting firm that came to prominence through the Facebook–Cambridge Analytica data scandal. It was started in 2013, as a subsidiary of the private intellig ...
, stating: " ebekahMercer is not warning us against armed conflict, she is threatening us with it.”


Claims that the United States is already engaged in a Cold Civil War (2020–present)

Several experts and commentators claim that the United States is already engaged in a cold civil war and they also claim that a violent civil war could erupt in the future. Discussion of a cold civil war was sparked primarily by the
election of Donald Trump The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...
in 2016 and the subsequent political fallout. ''
Financial Times The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
'' journalist
Edward Luce Edward Geoffrey Luce (born 1 June 1968) is an English journalist and the ''Financial Times'' chief US commentator and columnist based in Washington, D.C. Early life and education Luce is the son of Rose Helen (née Nicholson) and Richard Luc ...
sums up the national mood by stating: "when one party loses, its voters feel as though their America is being occupied by a foreign power." Gregory Treverton, former chairperson of the
National Intelligence Council The National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to the Director of National Intelligence, bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Tren ...
, and Karen Treverton, former Special Assistant at the
RAND Corporation The RAND Corporation (from the phrase "research and development") is an American nonprofit global policy think tank created in 1948 by Douglas Aircraft Company to offer research and analysis to the United States Armed Forces. It is finance ...
, go further, stating: "it seems plain that a civil war is coming, and the only question is whether it will be fought with lawsuits and secessions or with AK-15s." Thomas E. Ricks argued in a 2017 article for ''
Foreign Policy A state's foreign policy or external policy (as opposed to internal or domestic policy) is its objectives and activities in relation to its interactions with other states, unions, and other political entities, whether bilaterally or through ...
'' that the current political tensions in the United States could escalate to asymmetric or
irregular warfare Irregular warfare (IW) is defined in United States joint doctrine as "a violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations." Concepts associated with irregular warfare are older than the te ...
with the help of radicalizing digital propaganda, and speculated that "the likelihood of a second U.S. civil war in the next five years is between 20 and 40 percent, but trending upward significantly." Investigative journalist
Carl Bernstein Carl Milton Bernstein ( ; born February 14, 1944) is an American investigative journalist and author. While a young reporter for ''The Washington Post'' in 1972, Bernstein was teamed up with Bob Woodward, and the two did much of the original n ...
claimed early into the Trump presidency that news of
Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections The Russian government interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election with the goals of harming the campaign of Hillary Clinton, boosting the candidacy of Donald Trump, and increasing political and social discord in the United States. Ac ...
had put the country in a "cold civil war." Later that year, in response to the formal impeachment inquiry against President Trump during the 2019 Trump-Ukraine scandal,
conservative talk radio Conservative talk radio is a talk radio format in the United States and other countries devoted to expressing conservative viewpoints of issues, as opposed to progressive talk radio. The definition of conservative talk is generally broad enough ...
host
Rush Limbaugh Rush Hudson Limbaugh III ( ; January 12, 1951 – February 17, 2021) was an American conservative political commentator who was the host of '' The Rush Limbaugh Show'', which first aired in 1984 and was nationally syndicated on AM and FM r ...
claimed, without evidence, that the Democratic Party and the
mainstream media In journalism, mainstream media (MSM) is a term and abbreviation used to refer collectively to the various large mass news media that influence many people and both reflect and shape prevailing currents of thought. Chomsky, Noam, ''"What makes ma ...
had "aligned" to overturn the 2016 election results and protect " the deep state," pushing the United States into a "cold civil war." During the Special Counsel investigation by
Robert Mueller Robert Swan Mueller III (; born August 7, 1944) is an American lawyer and government official who served as the sixth director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from 2001 to 2013. A graduate of Princeton University and New York ...
,
Sean Hannity Sean Patrick Hannity (born December 30, 1961) is an American talk show host, conservative political commentator, and author. He is the host of '' The Sean Hannity Show'', a nationally syndicated talk radio show, and has also hosted a commen ...
also claimed on his radio show that there was a conspiracy to remove President Trump from office, which would result in a civil war "in terms of two sides that are just hating each other." Bernstein later stated that conservative conspiracies and attempts to delegitimize the 2020 election, including disproven claims of mass voter fraud and an alleged conspiracy by a deep state government to force Trump out of power, were "
radicalizing Radicalization (or radicalisation) is the process by which an individual or a group comes to adopt increasingly views in opposition to a political, social, or religious status quo. The ideas of society at large shape the outcomes of radicalizat ...
" members of the Republican Party and bringing a civil war "closer and closer to ignition." He added after the election that Trump's actions created a "cultural civil war such as we've never seen since 1860 to 1865." Bernstein later compared Trump to Confederate President
Jefferson Davis Jefferson F. Davis (June 3, 1808December 6, 1889) was an American politician who served as the president of the Confederate States from 1861 to 1865. He represented Mississippi in the United States Senate and the House of Representatives as ...
, stating: "You'd have to go back to the civil war to think of anything like the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6''.'' You'd have to go back to onfederate leaderJefferson Davis, who was a Democrat, if you’re looking for a seditious leader of a faction of the country." Former U.S. National Security Council official Fiona Hill, who testified in the
first impeachment of Donald Trump Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was impeached for the first time by the House of Representatives of the 116th United States Congress on December 18, 2019. The House adopted two articles of impeachment against Trump: ab ...
, said the radicalization of conservatism, which resulted in the 2021 U.S. Capitol attack, was a clear indicator that the nation is taking "darker turns," and summarized the cold civil war concern by stating: "The United States is teetering on the edge of violence here. We're already, I think, in a cold civil war. We've got a chance now to turn this around. But if we don't take it, we're heading down that autocratic path that we've seen in other countries."
Keith Boykin Keith Boykin is an American TV and film producer, national political commentator, author, and former White House aide to President Bill Clinton. He has made much of this public in his 2022 memoir, ''Quitting: Why I Left My Job to Live a Life of ...
, co-founder of the
National Black Justice Coalition The National Black Justice Coalition (NBJC) is an American civil rights organization serving primarily Black lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people. Since 2003, NBJC has collaborated with national civil rights groups and LGBT org ...
, argues that white decline in the United States, coupled with Trump's stolen election claims, is the primary cause of a "cold civil war." Boykin states Trump created fear among many White Americans that their political power was being destroyed by diversity. ''New York Times'' journalist
Charles M. Blow Charles McRay Blow (born August 11, 1970) is an American journalist, commentator and op-ed columnist for ''The New York Times'' and current political analyst for MSNBC. Early life Blow was born and raised in Gibsland, Louisiana. He was educated ...
also identified white decline as a primary reason the country is "on the verge of another civil war." After the Supreme Court rescinded the constitutional protection of abortion rights, stemming from '' United States v. Texas'' in 2021, Blow stated that if a civil war breaks out it would be fought between " a white racist patriarchy" and anyone who stood up to it, adding that the conflict would likely have "spats of violence" instead of organized battlefields, and would be primarily "fought in courts, statehouses and ballot boxes." Other scholars have identified perceived white displacement as the "root cause" of a pre-civil war climate. Ryan Williams, president of the conservative
Claremont Institute The Claremont Institute is a conservative think tank based in Upland, California. The institute was founded in 1979 by four students of Harry V. Jaffa. It produces the ''Claremont Review of Books,'' ''The American Mind'', and other publications. ...
, took the opposite view, claiming that the rise of
multiculturalism The term multiculturalism has a range of meanings within the contexts of sociology, political philosophy, and colloquial use. In sociology and in everyday usage, it is a synonym for " ethnic pluralism", with the two terms often used interchang ...
and
secularism Secularism is the principle of seeking to conduct human affairs based on secular, naturalistic considerations. Secularism is most commonly defined as the separation of religion from civil affairs and the state, and may be broadened to a si ...
was responsible for pushing the country towards civil war, not
conservative Christianity Conservative Christianity, also known as conservative theology, theological conservatism, traditional Christianity, or biblical orthodoxy is a grouping of overlapping and denominationally diverse theological movements within Christianity that s ...
. Williams claimed that the
authors An author is the writer of a book, article, play, mostly written work. A broader definition of the word "author" states: "''An author is "the person who originated or gave existence to anything" and whose authorship determines responsibility f ...
of the
Constitution A constitution is the aggregate of fundamental principles or established precedents that constitute the legal basis of a polity, organisation or other type of entity and commonly determine how that entity is to be governed. When these pr ...
saw the country as "really only fit for a Christian people," putting it at odds with "
woke ''Woke'' ( ) is an adjective derived from African-American Vernacular English (AAVE) meaning "alert to racial prejudice and discrimination". Beginning in the 2010s, it came to encompass a broader awareness of social inequalities such as sexi ...
, social-justice
anti-racism Anti-racism encompasses a range of ideas and political actions which are meant to counter racial prejudice, systemic racism, and the oppression of specific racial groups. Anti-racism is usually structured around conscious efforts and deliberate ...
" movements. Williams claimed that a form of
anti-Christian Anti-Christian sentiment or Christophobia constitutes opposition or objections to Christians, the Christian religion, and/or its practices. Anti-Christian sentiment is sometimes referred to as Christophobia or Christianophobia, although these terms ...
"woke
totalitarianism Totalitarianism is a form of government and a political system that prohibits all opposition parties, outlaws individual and group opposition to the state and its claims, and exercises an extremely high if not complete degree of control and regu ...
" was rising in the country and stood in direct opposition to principles like constitutionalism and
limited government In political philosophy, limited government is the concept of a government limited in power. It is a key concept in the history of liberalism.Amy Gutmann, "How Limited Is Liberal Government" in Liberalism Without Illusions: Essays on Liberal Th ...
, adding that the United States is "more divided now than we were n the 1860s" Williams said the "ideal endgame" is for conservatism to maintain a slim majority, and to "effect a realignment of our politics and take control of all three branches of government for a generation or two." Journalist Stephen Marche views William's "endgame" with concern, stating: "The moment the oliticalright takes control of institutions, they will use them to overthrow democracy in its most basic forms; they are already rushing to dissolve whatever norms stand in the way of their full empowerment. The right has recognized what the left has not: that the system is in collapse. The right has a plan: it involves violence and solidarity." Several journalists have also warned that a civil war is possible in the coming decade. Journalist
Robert Evans Robert Evans (born Robert J. Shapera; June 29, 1930October 26, 2019) was an American film producer, studio executive, and actor, best known for his work on '' Rosemary's Baby'' (1968), ''Love Story'' (1970), ''The Godfather'' (1972), and ''Chi ...
, who investigates global conflict and online extremism for
Bellingcat Bellingcat (stylised as bellngcat) is a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group that specialises in fact-checking and open-source intelligence (OSINT). It was founded by British journalist and former blogger Eliot Higgins in July 20 ...
, has also warned that a civil war is imminent. Evans dedicates a podcast called "It Could Happen Here" to the subject, in which he speculates on possible scenarios of a Second American Civil War. Other political and social commentators acknowledge that extreme partisan politics on
Capitol Hill Capitol Hill, in addition to being a metonym for the United States Congress, is the largest historic residential neighborhood in Washington, D.C., stretching easterly in front of the United States Capitol along wide avenues. It is one of the ...
, accompanied by related commonplace verbal and occasional physical acts of aggression in the streets, plus an increased general hostility, are tearing apart the fabric of American society, but point to the fact that "culture wars cycles" are imminent to the process of replenishing American values, and the first such cycle started after George Washington's retirement, and that Americans have to find "America's middle again and return to civility." Terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins echoed this view by stating that a civil war is unlikely (though not impossible), and that a possible rise in political violence, such as assassination attempts and armed conflict, was not uncommon from other periods in American history, concluding that "the country has a high tolerance for oliticalviolence without breaking apart." Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the
University of Minnesota The University of Minnesota, formally the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, (UMN Twin Cities, the U of M, or Minnesota) is a public land-grant research university in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States. ...
, disagrees, stating that, while Americans tolerate political violence to some extent, "violence sbeing given an explicit political agenda. That's a kind of terrifying new direction in America.” Conservative radio host
Dan Bongino Daniel John Bongino (born December 4, 1974) is an American conservative political commentator, radio show host, and author. He served as a New York City Police Department (NYPD) officer from 1995 to 1999 and as a Secret Service agent from 1999 ...
told his listenership in 2021 that conservatives need "to understand we are in a war and we then act accordingly," characterizing it as an existential "
zero sum Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation which involves two sides, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. In other words, player one's gain is e ...
" situation of "we win, you lose." Citing an article from nationalist conservative news and opinion website American Greatness, Bongino stated: "First, you must understand that you are, in fact, at war. Wartime requires very different rhetoric, strategy, and people than peacetime. Trump is a wartime leader."
Ginni Thomas Virginia "Ginni" Thomas ( Lamp; born February 23, 1957) is an American attorney and conservative activist. In 1987, she married Clarence Thomas, who became an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in 1991. Her conservative ...
, wife of Supreme Court Justice
Clarence Thomas Clarence Thomas (born June 23, 1948) is an American jurist who serves as an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. He was nominated by President George H. W. Bush to succeed Thurgood Marshall and has served since 1 ...
, recommend Bongino to Trump for
United States Secretary of Homeland Security The United States secretary of homeland security is the head of the United States Department of Homeland Security, the federal department tasked with ensuring public safety in the United States. The secretary is a member of the Cabinet of th ...
if Trump is reelected in 2024.


Trump's arrest as a firestarter

As criminal inquires ramped up into Trump's attempts to remain in power, some legal observers raised the prospect that Trump could be arrested at the conclusion of two main investigations: * The
United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack The United States House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (the January 6th Committee) is a bipartisan select committee of the U.S. House of Representatives established to investigate the U.S. ...
, which has no power to arrest, has suggested that it may make a criminal referral to the
Department of Justice A justice ministry, ministry of justice, or department of justice is a ministry or other government agency in charge of the administration of justice. The ministry or department is often headed by a minister of justice (minister for justice in a ...
. There has not been a clear indication from Attorney General
Merrick Garland Merrick Brian Garland (born November 13, 1952) is an American lawyer and jurist serving since March 2021 as the 86th United States attorney general. He previously served as a U.S. circuit judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of ...
if he will pursue criminal charges against Trump. Garland could pursue criminal charges without a referral from the Select Committee. * A
Georgia Georgia most commonly refers to: * Georgia (country), a country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia * Georgia (U.S. state), a state in the Southeast United States Georgia may also refer to: Places Historical states and entities * Related to the ...
criminal investigation looking into Trump's attempt to overturn the state election results, particularly in reference to the
Trump–Raffensperger phone call On January 2, 2021, during an hour-long conference call, then-U.S. President Donald Trump pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to change the state's election results from the 2020 presidential election. Trump had been defea ...
. Legal experts believe that Trump could be prosecuted on charges which are related to the obstruction of an official proceeding,
conspiracy to defraud the United States Conspiracy against the United States, or conspiracy to defraud the United States,§ 92318 U.S.C. § 371—Conspiracy to Defraud the United States U.S. Department of Justice's ''United States Attorneys' Manual''. is a federal offense in the United ...
,
seditious conspiracy Seditious conspiracy is a crime in various jurisdictions of conspiring against the authority or legitimacy of the state. As a form of sedition, it has been described as a serious but lesser counterpart to treason, targeting activities that undermi ...
, or, in the Georgia investigation,
racketeering Racketeering is a type of organized crime in which the perpetrators set up a coercive, fraudulent, extortionary, or otherwise illegal coordinated scheme or operation (a "racket") to repeatedly or consistently collect a profit. Originally and ...
. Former federal prosecutor Barbara McQuade speculated that Trump's arrest could trigger a violent response from Trump supporters and could trigger a second civil war. Claire Finkelstein, a professor of law and philosophy and the founder of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the
University of Pennsylvania The University of Pennsylvania (also known as Penn or UPenn) is a Private university, private research university in Philadelphia. It is the fourth-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and is ranked among the highest- ...
, believes that we "may be on the brink of mass violence" which could be triggered by a Trump arrest, but she adds that prosecuting Trump is "the right thing to do" even if it starts a civil war. Trump himself has primed his base to massively protest in major U.S. cities if he is arrested.


Secession as a firestarter

There have been a handful of attempts by states to secede from the union since the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Most legal experts note that secession is illegal as a result of a 1868 ruling from the Supreme Court and would likely result in war. The Yes California Independence Campaign received an increase in support in the aftermath of Trump's election, which organizers saw as a "tipping point" and a "crossroads" for the nation. The movement pushed unsuccessfully for the state to secede from the rest of the country. Though the movement never legitimized in the mainstream, historian Richard Stringer called the level of talk of secession in the aftermath of Trump's election "unprecedented" in American politics. Stringer asserted that the political climate after the 2016 election was similar to the climate preceding the
American Civil War The American Civil War (April 12, 1861 – May 26, 1865; also known by Names of the American Civil War, other names) was a civil war in the United States. It was fought between the Union (American Civil War), Union ("the North") and t ...
, stating: "When
Lincoln Lincoln most commonly refers to: * Abraham Lincoln (1809–1865), the sixteenth president of the United States * Lincoln, England, cathedral city and county town of Lincolnshire, England * Lincoln, Nebraska, the capital of Nebraska, U.S. * Lincol ...
was elected in 1860, the defenders of slavery concluded that their time had run out. In the 1980s,
Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan ( ; February 6, 1911June 5, 2004) was an American politician, actor, and union leader who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He also served as the 33rd governor of California from 1967 ...
and his supporters exulted in their vision of '
morning in America "Prouder, Stronger, Better", commonly referred to by the name "Morning in America", is a 1984 political campaign television commercial, known for its opening line, "It's morning again in America." The ad was part of that year's presidential campaig ...
.' In 2017, we might very well be moving toward the stroke of midnight." In the summer of 2022, The
Republican Party of Texas The Republican Party of Texas (RPT) is the affiliate of the United States Republican Party in the state of Texas. It is currently chaired by Matt Rinaldi, succeeding Allen West who resigned prior to the expiration of his term to run for govern ...
released a final Report of the Permanent 2022 Platform & Resolutions Committee. Several line items of the platform are being voted on by Texas Republican leaders. Within the party platform, the Texas GOP claims that President Biden is only "acting President" because his 2020 win was "illegitimate." The party platform also went further, stating that "the federal government has impaired our right of local self-government" and that "federally mandated legislation that infringes up on the 10th Amendment rights of Texas should be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified." The platform also claims Texas has the right to
secede Secession is the withdrawal of a group from a larger entity, especially a political entity, but also from any organization, union or military alliance. Some of the most famous and significant secessions have been: the former Soviet republics l ...
from the United States and called on the
Texas Legislature The Texas Legislature is the state legislature of the US state of Texas. It is a bicameral body composed of a 31-member Senate and a 150-member House of Representatives. The state legislature meets at the Capitol in Austin. It is a powerful ar ...
to put secession to a vote in 2023. Richard Albert, a professor of law and government and the director of Constitutional Studies at the University of Texas at Austin, stated that if Texas broke away from the Union it "would mean war."


2022 or 2024 elections as a firestarter

There has been growing concern among some observers that either the
2022 midterm elections The 2022 United States elections were held on November 8, 2022, with the exception of absentee balloting. During this U.S. midterm election, which occurred during the first term of incumbent president Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, all 4 ...
or the 2024 presidential election will trigger a civil war in the United States, particularly if Donald Trump (or a Trumpian figure) loses but fights the 2024 election results. Economist
Umair Haque Umair Haque is a British economist. He was the director of the Havas Media Lab, has previously blogged in the ''Harvard Business Review ''Harvard Business Review'' (''HBR'') is a general management magazine published by Harvard Business P ...
, for example, has argued that primary victories for Trump-endorsed candidates during the 2022 midterm elections demonstrates that the Trump wing of the Republican party has moved from a "
neo-fascist Neo-fascism is a post-World War II far-right ideology that includes significant elements of fascism. Neo-fascism usually includes ultranationalism, racial supremacy, populism, authoritarianism, nativism, xenophobia, and anti-immigration ...
rabble" to "an organized, sophisticated authoritarian-fascist political bloc" that ensures future "far more effective" coup attempts that could trigger civil war and split the U.S. military into warring factions. Ray Dalio suggests there is a high chance that there will be disagreement between the federal government and conservative states over results from the
2022 midterm elections The 2022 United States elections were held on November 8, 2022, with the exception of absentee balloting. During this U.S. midterm election, which occurred during the first term of incumbent president Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, all 4 ...
, and that there is a "reasonable chance" that one of the major parties will reject the results of the 2024 election, regardless of outcome, adding that state legislators could use newly enacted voting restrictions to alter election results in favor of their preferred candidate. Dalio suggests such a result could trigger an unprecedented breakdown of law between the federal and state government, including the possibility of civil conflict, stating: "It will be power that will determine how that goes down." Dalio later clarified that such a "civil war" could be a nonviolent breakdown of federal rules, though did not dismiss the possibility of widespread political violence. Thomas Homer-Dixon, Canadian
political scientist Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
, agreed that U.S. elections are "becoming increasingly ungovernable", suggesting that the nation could descend into civil war if the 2024 election is won or contested by Donald Trump. He adds that by 2030 "the country could be governed by a right-wing
dictatorship A dictatorship is a form of government which is characterized by a leader, or a group of leaders, which holds governmental powers with few to no limitations on them. The leader of a dictatorship is called a dictator. Politics in a dictatorship a ...
", drawing several political and economic comparisons between the contemporary United States and the final years of Germany's
Weimar Republic The Weimar Republic (german: link=no, Weimarer Republik ), officially named the German Reich, was the government of Germany from 1918 to 1933, during which it was a Constitutional republic, constitutional federal republic for the first time in ...
. Rep.
Jamaal Bowman Jamaal Anthony Bowman (born April 1, 1976) is an American politician and educator serving as the U.S. representative for since 2021. The district covers much of the north Bronx, as well as the southern half of Westchester County, including Mou ...
, (D-N.Y.) predicted that a heavy GOP victory in the 2022 midterms would embolden far-right extremists and rally them to ignite a race-driven civil war, stating: "That is what’s at stake right now in terms of this election."
Robert Kagan Robert Kagan (; born September 26, 1958) is an American neoconservative scholar, critic of U.S. foreign policy, and a leading advocate of liberal interventionism. A co-founder of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century, he is a ...
, co-founder of the neoconservative think-tank
Project for the New American Century The Project for the New American Century (PNAC) was a neoconservativeThe Washington Post ''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large n ...
,'' that if Trump runs for a second term, that the country will face its "greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War". Kagan asserted that there is "a reasonable chance over the next three to four years of incidents of mass violence, a breakdown of federal authority, and the division of the country into warring red and blue enclaves". Former policy advisor Fiona Hill echoed Kagan, stating that a Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election, even if legally won, has the potential of triggering an "open civil war". James Hawdon, director of the Center for Peace Studies and Violence Prevention at
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech (formally the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and informally VT, or VPI) is a public land-grant research university with its main campus in Blacksburg, Virginia. It also has educational facilities in six re ...
, echoed the concern for future elections, stating: "I don't like to be an alarmist, but the country has been moving more and more toward violence, not away from it. Another contested election may have grim consequences", adding: "there are similar sentiments o just before the American Civil Warabout the seriousness of the threat and the need to take arms to 'defend' the country".
Edward Luce Edward Geoffrey Luce (born 1 June 1968) is an English journalist and the ''Financial Times'' chief US commentator and columnist based in Washington, D.C. Early life and education Luce is the son of Rose Helen (née Nicholson) and Richard Luc ...
of the
Financial Times The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
adds: "America’s armed forces today cannot be outgunned. Even in a country that, uniquely, has more privately owned guns than people (at more than 400 million), many of which are military-grade, it would be no contest. Yet, America, of all countries, knows that asymmetric warfare is unwinnable. Think of
Vietnam Vietnam or Viet Nam ( vi, Việt Nam, ), officially the Socialist Republic of Vietnam,., group="n" is a country in Southeast Asia, at the eastern edge of mainland Southeast Asia, with an area of and population of 96 million, making ...
,
Iraq Iraq,; ku, عێراق, translit=Êraq officially the Republic of Iraq, '; ku, کۆماری عێراق, translit=Komarî Êraq is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Turkey to Iraq–Turkey border, the north, Iran to Iran–Iraq ...
and
Afghanistan Afghanistan, officially the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,; prs, امارت اسلامی افغانستان is a landlocked country located at the crossroads of Central Asia and South Asia. Referred to as the Heart of Asia, it is borde ...
."


Remarks about a Second Civil War by government officials


Among Republicans

Some members of the Republican Party have publicly suggested a second civil war in America, with a handful calling for secession, a civil war, or both. These calls for violence have been primarily in response to the
First Impeachment of Donald Trump Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was impeached for the first time by the House of Representatives of the 116th United States Congress on December 18, 2019. The House adopted two articles of impeachment against Trump: ab ...
, and later in response to Trump's loss in the 2020 election, which many party leaders claim was stolen despite a lack of evidence and several refuted claims of voter fraud. Former House Representative Steve King (R-Iowa), for instance, posted a much-criticized
Internet meme An Internet meme, commonly known simply as a meme ( ), is an idea, behavior, style, or image that is spread via the Internet, often through social media platforms. What is considered a meme may vary across different communities on the Internet ...
on March 19, 2019, reading: "Folks keep talking about another civil war. One side has about 8 trillion bullets, while the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use." After the opening of the first impeachment inquiry in Sept. 2019, President
Trump Trump most commonly refers to: * Donald Trump (born 1946), 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) * Trump (card games), any playing card given an ad-hoc high rank Trump may also refer to: Businesses and organizations * Donald J. T ...
made a Twitter post paraphrasing
evangelical Christian Evangelicalism (), also called evangelical Christianity or evangelical Protestantism, is a worldwide interdenominational movement within Protestant Christianity that affirms the centrality of being " born again", in which an individual expe ...
pastor and
Fox News The Fox News Channel, abbreviated FNC, commonly known as Fox News, and stylized in all caps, is an American multinational conservative cable news television channel based in New York City. It is owned by Fox News Media, which itself is o ...
contributor
Robert Jeffress Robert James Jeffress Jr. (born November 29, 1955) is an American Southern Baptist pastor, author, radio host, and televangelist. He is the senior pastor of the 14,000-member First Baptist Church, a megachurch in Dallas, Texas and is a Fox News ...
, stating: "If the Democrats are successful in removing the President from office (which they will never be), it will cause a Civil War-like fracture in this nation from which our country will never heal." In December 2020, after the
Supreme Court A supreme court is the highest court within the hierarchy of courts in most legal jurisdictions. Other descriptions for such courts include court of last resort, apex court, and high (or final) court of appeal. Broadly speaking, the decisions of ...
refused to hear '' Texas v. Pennsylvania'', a lawsuit regarding unproven claims of fraud in the 2020 elections, Texas GOP Chair Allen West criticized the Court's decision and suggested "law-abiding states" should secede. West faced widespread criticism, including from
Republican Republican can refer to: Political ideology * An advocate of a republic, a type of government that is not a monarchy or dictatorship, and is usually associated with the rule of law. ** Republicanism, the ideology in support of republics or agains ...
Congressman
Adam Kinzinger Adam Daniel Kinzinger (; born February 27, 1978) is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for . The district covers eastern Rockford, most of Rockford's suburbs, and a swath of exurban territory around Chicago. He is a memb ...
and Democratic Senator
Brian Schatz Brian Emanuel Schatz (; born October 20, 1972) is an American educator and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Hawaii, a seat he has held since 2012. A member of the Democratic Party, Schatz served in the Hawaii House ...
. The official Arizona Republican Party Twitter account went further, encouraging Republican voters to prepare to "fight," and asking them if they were ready to "die for something." Around the same time, Kelli Ward, chair for the Arizona Republican Party, tweeted at Trump, urging him to " cross the Rubicon" (a reference to the
Roman Civil War This is a list of civil wars and organized civil disorder, revolts and rebellions in ancient Rome (Roman Kingdom, Roman Republic, and Roman Empire) until the fall of the Western Roman Empire (753 BCE – 476 CE). For the Eastern Roman Empire or B ...
). Trump's former National Security Advisor
Michael Flynn Michael Thomas Flynn (born December 24, 1958) is a retired United States Army lieutenant general and conspiracy theorist who was the 24th U.S. National Security Advisor for the first 22 days of the Trump administration. He resigned in light of ...
retweeted Ward's call. Days prior to the 2021 Capitol attack, the website for the St. Croix County Republican Party in
Hudson, Wisconsin Hudson is a city in St. Croix County, Wisconsin, United States. As of the 2010 United States census, its population was 12,719. It is part of the Minneapolis–St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The village of North Hudson is direct ...
called on conservatives to "prepare for war." John Kraft, chairman for the county party, also posted on his personal Facebook page that it had "never been clearer that we are absolutely at war with the left." Kraft refused to remove the Facebook message and later resigned under pressure. The message was later removed from the website after condemnation from state conservatives. Members of the county party later released a statement condemning the call to war, stating that Kraft had posted it on their website without their consolation or approval. In May 2021, U.S. Representative
Matt Gaetz Matthew Louis Gaetz II ( ; born May 7, 1982) is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the U.S. representative for since 2017. A Republican, he has been described as an ally of former president Donald Trump, as well as a proponen ...
(R-Fl.) told a crowd of Trump supporters at an "America First" rally that "we have a
Second Amendment The second (symbol: s) is the unit of time in the International System of Units (SI), historically defined as of a day – this factor derived from the division of the day first into 24 hours, then to 60 minutes and finally to 60 seconds each ...
in this country and I think we have an obligation to use it... it's about maintaining within the citizenry the ability to maintain an armed rebellion against the government if that becomes necessary." The crowded applauded and cheered these remarks. Gaetz later denied that he was encouraging political violence and that his words were taken out of context. Later in August, Congressman
Madison Cawthorn David Madison Cawthorn (born August 1, 1995) is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district from 2021 to 2023. Cawthorn became the first member of Congress born in the 1990s and d ...
(R-N.C.), drawing on claims that the
2020 United States presidential election The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala H ...
had been stolen by Democrats, stated that "if our election systems continue to be rigged and continue to be stolen, it's gonna lead to one place, and it's bloodshed." Cawthorn also added: "And I will tell you, as much as I'm willing to defend our liberty at all costs, there's nothing that I would dread doing more than having to pick up arms against a fellow American." Cawthorn later echoed this sentiment following the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict, using social media to call on his supporters to "be armed, be dangerous and be moral," which some interpreted as incendiary. In October 2021, U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) tweeted a poll asking her followers if the United States was ready for a " national divorce" based on the party majority of each state, which many commentators interpreted as incendiary and provocative of political violence and civil war. In December 2021, Greene reinforced her call for a "national divorce" and "dismantling" of the U.S. government, but stated she was not advocating for war. Her statements prompted Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) to claim that Greene was "toying with the idea of civil war" and called for her expulsion from Congress. Meanwhile, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) tweeted: "There is no 'National Divorce' either reene isfor civil war or not," adding: "Just say it if you want a civil war and officially declare yourself a
traitor Treason is the crime of attacking a state authority to which one owes allegiance. This typically includes acts such as participating in a war against one's native country, attempting to overthrow its government, spying on its military, its diplo ...
." Greene later went on the ''America First'' radio show with
Sebastian Gorka Sebastian Lukács Gorka ( hu, Gorka Sebestyén Lukács) (born October 22, 1970) is a British-born Hungarian-American media personality (currently with Salem Radio and NewsMax TV), military and intelligence analyst, and former government off ...
and said that the right to bear arms was established to allow citizens to violently overthrow
tyrant A tyrant (), in the modern English usage of the word, is an absolute ruler who is unrestrained by law, or one who has usurped a legitimate ruler's sovereignty. Often portrayed as cruel, tyrants may defend their positions by resorting to ...
s, stating that 2022 Georgia gubernatorial candidate
Stacey Abrams Stacey Yvonne Abrams (; born December 9, 1973) is an American politician, lawyer, voting rights activist, and author who served in the Georgia House of Representatives from 2007 to 2017, serving as minority leader from 2011 to 2017. A member ...
and the Democratic Party writ-large were using the power of the
federal government A federation (also known as a federal state) is a political entity characterized by a union of partially self-governing provinces, states, or other regions under a central federal government ( federalism). In a federation, the self-gover ...
to curtail state's rights, stating: "I hate to use this language, but Democrats ... they're doing exactly what our Founders arnedabout." Greene stated that she was not a "violent person," preferring a secession instead of open civil war. In February 2022, the
Republican National Committee The Republican National Committee (RNC) is a U.S. political committee that assists the Republican Party of the United States. It is responsible for developing and promoting the Republican brand and political platform, as well as assisting in ...
voted to
censure A censure is an expression of strong disapproval or harsh criticism. In parliamentary procedure, it is a debatable main motion that could be adopted by a majority vote. Among the forms that it can take are a stern rebuke by a legislature, a spi ...
Representatives Kinzinger and
Liz Cheney Elizabeth Lynne Cheney (; born July 28, 1966) is an American attorney and politician who has been the U.S. representative for since 2017, with her term expiring in January 2023. She chaired the House Republican Conference, the third-highest ...
, the two Republicans on the
United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack The United States House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (the January 6th Committee) is a bipartisan select committee of the U.S. House of Representatives established to investigate the U.S. ...
, and issued a controversial statement, claiming the representatives were "participating in Democrat-led persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate public discourse," though later claimed their statement did not endorse political violence. Kinzinger was critical of the RNC for legitimizing the attack and standing by Trump, and said such statements were a "defining moment" that put the country on course for a civil war. He continued by stating it was "not a far thought" that "someday, some militia shows up somewhere to do something, and then some counter-militia shows up, and truly at that point that is how you end up in a civil war." When pushed if he actually believed civil war was possible, Kinzinger stated: "I do. And a year ago I would have said no, not a chance. But I have come to realize when we don't see each other as fellow Americans, when we begin to separate into cultural identities, when we begin to basically give up everything we believe so we could be part of a group, and then when you have leaders that come and abuse that faithfulness of that group to violent ends, as we saw on January 6, we would be naïve to think it's not possible here." Kinzinger later went on The View to echo his concern about civil war, stating: "In the past, I've said, oh, we don't want to talk about it, because I don't want to make it likely. Well, let's look at where we are." Kinzinger also clarified that such a violent conflict would look less like historical civil wars and more like
fourth-generation warfare Fourth-generation warfare (4GW) is conflict characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians. The term was first used in 1980 by a team of United States analysts, including William S. Lind, to describe ...
with "armed groups against armed groups, targeted assassination and violence. That's what a 21st and 20th century Civil War is." During the 2022 midterm election season, Florida Governor
Ron DeSantis Ronald Dion DeSantis (; born September 14, 1978) is an American politician serving as the 46th governor of Florida since January 2019. A member of the Republican Party, DeSantis represented Florida's 6th district in the U.S. House of Repres ...
stated that if Democratic gubernatorial candidate
Stacey Abrams Stacey Yvonne Abrams (; born December 9, 1973) is an American politician, lawyer, voting rights activist, and author who served in the Georgia House of Representatives from 2007 to 2017, serving as minority leader from 2011 to 2017. A member ...
won the
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election The 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022 to elect the governor of Georgia. Incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams. Kemp is expected ...
there would be a "cold war" between the states of Florida and Georgia. DeSantis declared: "I can’t have Castro to my south and Abrams to my north, that would be a disaster." Prior to the 2022 election season, DeSantis drew concern from Democratic congressional leaders when he proposed reactivating a
state defense force In the United States, state defense forces are military units that operate under the sole authority of a state government. State defense forces are authorized by state and federal law and are under the command of the governor of each state. ...
called the
Florida State Guard The Florida State Guard (FSG) is the state defense force of the U.S. state of Florida. The FSG was created in 1941 to serve as a stateside replacement for the Florida National Guard while the National Guard was deployed abroad during World War II ...
that he would control. State Sen.
Annette Taddeo Annette Joanne Taddeo-Goldstein (née Taddeo; born April 7, 1967) is a Colombian-American politician and businesswoman serving as a member of the Florida Senate from the 40th district. She was an unsuccessful candidate for several elections star ...
claimed DeSantis was a "wannabe dictator trying to make his move for his own vigilante militia like we've seen in Cuba." Rep.
Charlie Crist Charles Joseph Crist Jr. (; born July 24, 1956) is an American attorney and politician who served as the 44th governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 and as the U.S. representative for from 2017 to 2022. Crist has been a member of the Democratic ...
claimed DeSantis was creating “his own handpicked secret police." Originally budgeted at $3.5 million in DeSantis' "Freedom First" proposed budget, the
Florida State Senate The Florida Senate is the upper house of the Florida Legislature, the state legislature of the U.S. state of Florida, the Florida House of Representatives being the lower house. Article III, Section 1 of the Constitution of Florida, adopted in ...
later proposed $10 million to train 400 initial civilians to response to state disasters without being "encumbered by the federal government." The propose budget would establish DeSantis as a "
Adjutant General An adjutant general is a military chief administrative officer. France In Revolutionary France, the was a senior staff officer, effectively an assistant to a general officer. It was a special position for lieutenant-colonels and colonels in staf ...
," with plans to expand the budget. Others assert that the fear of a "private army" ruled exclusively by DeSantis was exaggerated and that state guards can be legally federalized by the president under such laws as the Insurrection Act. Georgia gubernatorial candidate
David Perdue David Alfred Perdue Jr. (; born December 10, 1949) is an American politician and business executive who served as a United States senator from Georgia from 2015 to 2021. A member of the Republican Party, Perdue was an unsuccessful candidate fo ...
echoed similar sentiments during a debate with Republican Governor
Brian Kemp Brian Porter Kemp (born November 2, 1963) is an American businessman and politician serving as the 83rd governor of Georgia since January 2019. A member of the Republican Party, Kemp served as the 27th secretary of state of Georgia from 2010 to ...
when he accused Kemp of bringing the country "to the brink of war" by allowing "radical Democrats to steal our election." Kemp faced heated criticism from Trump and other Republicans for enforcing state law and certifying the election results in favor of Biden. Donald Trump, having been banned from most major social media platforms after the January 6 attacks, took to his platform
Truth Social Truth Social (stylized as TRUTH Social) is a social media platform created by Trump Media & Technology Group, an American media and technology company founded in October 2021 by former U.S. president Donald Trump. It has been called a competito ...
on May 22, 2022, and "ReTruthed" (similar to retweeting) an ambiguous reference to civil war. The post contained a screencap of El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele discussing
inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduct ...
, stating: "the most powerful country in the world is falling so fast, that it makes you rethink what are the real reasons. Something so big and powerful can't be destroyed so quickly, unless the enemy comes from within," with another statement from a Truth Social user stating "Civil war." The post was condemned by Kinzinger and Democratic Rep.
Eric Swalwell Eric Michael Swalwell (born November 16, 1980) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 15th congressional district since 2013. His district covers most of eastern Alameda County and part of centr ...
who interpreted it as advocating for a real civil war. Republican Senator
Mitt Romney Willard Mitt Romney (born March 12, 1947) is an American politician, businessman, and lawyer serving as the junior United States senator from Utah since January 2019, succeeding Orrin Hatch. He served as the 70th governor of Massachusetts ...
, an outspoken critic of Trump, wrote an op-ed in ''
The Atlantic ''The Atlantic'' is an American magazine and multi-platform publisher. It features articles in the fields of politics, foreign affairs, business and the economy, culture and the arts, technology, and science. It was founded in 1857 in Boston, ...
'' on July 4, 2022 (
Independence Day An independence day is an annual event commemorating the anniversary of a nation's independence or statehood, usually after ceasing to be a group or part of another nation or state, or more rarely after the end of a military occupation. Many ...
) warning Americans of "cataclysmic" outcomes based on poor political leadership in both political parties, and
denialism In the psychology of human behavior, denialism is a person's choice to denial, deny reality as a way to avoid a psychologically uncomfortable truth. Denialism is an essentially irrational action that withholds the validation of a historical expe ...
of emerging problems such as
national debt A country's gross government debt (also called public debt, or sovereign debt) is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit oc ...
,
climate change In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to ...
and
illegal immigration Illegal immigration is the migration of people into a country in violation of the immigration laws of that country or the continued residence without the legal right to live in that country. Illegal immigration tends to be financially upwar ...
. Romney specifically cited conservative former federal appellate judge J. Michael Luttig's opening statement to the
United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack The United States House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (the January 6th Committee) is a bipartisan select committee of the U.S. House of Representatives established to investigate the U.S. ...
as a dire warning of a "potentially cataclysmic threat." Luttig stated: "Serious thinkers about the American experiment, who are not given to apocalyptic prophesying, question whether America is on the verge of a literal civil war."


Among Democrats and others

There have been no public calls for civil war from any other political party, though some have expressed concerns that increased polarization will lead to a civil war. Several Democrats have blamed Trump and members of the Republican Party for pushing for civil war. During the second impeachment of Donald Trump, Maxine Waters, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Cali.) claimed Trump was "capable of starting a civil war." A year later, she echoed this view, stating that domestic terrorist organizations were being encouraged by Trump in the way "he speaks to them ... in the way he encourages them. And so, we're in for it ... These people have lost their minds. They are crazy. And people had better understand that democracy is being damaged and undermined. And I believe they would like to see a civil war in the country." Presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) remarked in 2020 that Trump's response to the COVID-19 pandemic had put the country "in the worst moment in American history maybe since the Civil War." Presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who ran in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2020 Democratic primary and later established the Forward (United States), Forward Party political action committee, has become increasingly vocal about his concerns for a second civil war, tweeting in October 2021: "Polarization is worse than ever and getting worse not better. There is a Civil War coming if we don't stop dehumanizing those we disagree with politically." He echoed the same concern that a second civil war is possible on the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris, stating high polarization on both sides "could end up being a new civil war that ends up bringing down our democracy as it currently exists." Yang later identified the winner-take-all
two-party system A two-party system is a political party system in which two major political parties consistently dominate the political landscape. At any point in time, one of the two parties typically holds a majority in the legislature and is usually refe ...
as a driving force of polarization, stating it had put the nation at "literally civil war levels of political tension" that would lead to "violence and Civil War 2.0, which is frankly the path we're on right now." During his Inauguration of Joe Biden, inauguration, President Joe Biden called on the country to end the "uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal," referring to the high polarization of American politics. In response to Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, new voting restrictions enacted by conservative political leaders, Biden remarked that the country was facing "the worst challenge to our democracy since the Civil War." Biden, in private, was later quoted by a senior Democrat stating that: “I certainly hope [my presidency] works out. If it doesn’t, I’m not sure we’re going to have a country.” On the first anniversary of the 2021 Capitol Attack, Former President Jimmy Carter warned that "our great nation now teeters on the brink of a widening abyss" and that "without immediate action, we are at genuine risk of civil conflict and losing our precious democracy." Carter blamed Trump, inaction by the Republican Party in the aftermath of the attack, and "promoters of the lie that the election was stolen" for stoking "distrust in our electoral systems." Carter noted that former Presidents Bill Clinton, Clinton, George W. Bush, Bush and Obama had each "affirmed the legitimacy of the 2020 election" and condemned "relentless disinformation, which continues to turn Americans against Americans." Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.),a member of the
United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack The United States House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (the January 6th Committee) is a bipartisan select committee of the U.S. House of Representatives established to investigate the U.S. ...
, classified the attack as an "inside coup" organized by Trump that could have triggered a civil war, stating: "It’s anybody’s guess what could have happened — martial law, civil war. You know, the beginning of authoritarianism. I want people to pay attention to what’s going on here, because that’s as close to fascism as I ever want my country to come to again."


Among the U.S. Military

There has been growing concern among military leaders that a civil war could break out in the United States in the coming years. Eight Former Secretaries of Defense and Five Former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs, including Trump's Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, penned an open letter in September, 2022 characterizing the political climate as an "exceptionally challenging civil-military environment," warning that the military had to "confront an extremely adverse environment characterized by the divisiveness of affective polarization that culminated in the first election in over a century when the peaceful transfer of political power was disrupted and in doubt." The letter was written because Pentagon leaders were "alarmed" by the Trump campaign's "rhetoric and ideas" in the 2020 election, including a never issued order for the military to seize voting machines. The open letter reaffirmed the military's neutrality in election outcomes, but warned that "could well get worse before they get better." Former U.S. Generals Paul Eaton, Paul D. Eaton, Antonio Taguba, Antonio M. Taguba and Steven M. Anderson stated together in a ''Washington Post'' op-ed that if Trump or a "Trumpian figure" contests the 2024 election there could be "lethal chaos inside our military", including a "total breakdown" into civil war. They state that "rogue [military] units" could pledge loyalty to the losing candidate, highlighting that 1 in 10 people charged in relation to the 2021 Capitol attack had a service record. They each urged the United States Department of Defense to begin conducting wargames for a 2024 insurrection or coup attempt. General Anderson later went on CNN to say that the threat of civil war lies within the U.S. military, not necessarily in its citizens, claiming "[some service members] think the president is something like a king" and are willing to defy the Constitution to follow "people like Trump", adding that such individuals should be identified, removed from service, and replaced by members who are loyal to Constitutional order. Retired U.S. Army Col. and Iraq War, Iraq War veteran Peter Mansoor states such a scenario is plausible. Mansoor states "it would not be like the first Civil War, with armies maneuvering on the battlefield. I think it would very much be a free-for-all, neighbor on neighbor, based on beliefs and skin colors and religion. And it would be horrific."


International views

Chilean newspaper ''El Mercurio'', published in January 2022 an opinion column by Heraldo Muñoz (former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Chile; former Assistant Secretary-General, Assistant Administrator, and Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United Nations Development Programme; and the former Chilean Ambassador to the United Nations, to Brazil, and to the Organization of American States), in which he discusses the possibility of a coup d'état in the next US presidential elections and says, "The specter of political violence is perceived to be rising." He mentions Trump's lies about the results of the 2020 elections, the support he has in the military and his following base, and the maneuvers of the Republican Party to decrease access to voting as elements that could lead to a generalized popular mistrust in future election's results. Muñoz says that situation is already considered as the start of a civil war by authors like Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt in their book ''How Democracies Die'', Barton Gellman's
The Atlantic ''The Atlantic'' is an American magazine and multi-platform publisher. It features articles in the fields of politics, foreign affairs, business and the economy, culture and the arts, technology, and science. It was founded in 1857 in Boston, ...
's article ''Trump's Next Coup Has Already Begun'', and the Zogby Analytics 2021 poll in which a 46% of voters believes a civil war is likely. In Muñoz's opinion, the subsequent "collapse of American democracy" would have "very negative consequences" for Chile and other countries. He reiterated those ideas in a follow-up column published in July 2022, after the first round of the January 6 hearings. On November 12, when 2022 2022 United States elections, midterm elections' results were still incomplete, Muñoz wrote: "American democracy is safe, for now; but the deep political and social divide in the US continues. The problem of an electoral tie in a polarized society is the possible recourse to violence instead of voting."


The general public's perception that a Second Civil War could erupt in the near future

Among the general public, there is considerable and growing concern that a Second American Civil War could erupt in the near future. Journalist Malcom Kyeyune summarizes the political climate by stating: "Talk of insurrection, secession, civil conflict and civil war is no longer the chatter of the gullible and the mentally ill. It's entering the fringes of polite society." A 2018 Rasmussen Reports, Rasmussen poll, for instance, found that 31 percent of American voters feared that the intense partisanship following the 2016 United States presidential election, 2016 presidential election and the victory of
Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
would cause a Second Civil War within five years, while a 2019 poll by the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service revealed that "the average voter believes the U.S. is two-thirds of the way to the edge of a civil war". A Zogby Analytics poll in 2021 found that nearly half of likely voters (46 percent) considered a second civil war likely. Voters in the South felt a civil war was more likely when compared to other regions. The West Virginia University, University of West Virginia's Center For Politics found that roughly 41% of Biden voters and 52% of Trump voters at least somewhat supported splitting the country from the union into liberal and conservative states. The same polling found that most voters saw everyday Americans who strongly support the opposing political party as either somewhat or very much a danger to society, and the majority of voters viewed political leaders of opposing parties as very much a danger. Research conducted by the University of Chicago in 2021 found that more than a fourth of adults agree that "the 2020 election was stolen, and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president" and approximately 9 percent of Americans felt that "use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency." Researchers also concluded that belief in the Great Replacement and
QAnon QAnon ( , ) is an American political conspiracy theory and political movement. It originated in the American far-right political sphere in 2017. QAnon centers on fabricated claims made by an anonymous individual or individuals known as "Q". ...
conspiracy theories were fueling much of the insurrectionist movement, and extrapolated that approximately 21 million Americans are prepared for violent conflict with the federal government. Many Americans of both political parties saw the fallout of the 2020 election as a clear sign that "America is falling apart." Political scientist Eliot A. Cohen summarized this research by stating that most Americans are living under "the specter of civil war and the collapse of American democracy," but argues that American political institutions are stronger than most people credit them to be, and likens the cultural tension to the interwar period. Research conducted in late 2021 by the Harvard Kennedy School found that a majority of young Americans (between the age of 18 to 29) viewed the United States in peril. The poll also found that a third of young Americans anticipated a Second American Civil War within their lifetime. Anticipation of a civil war was held mostly by young Republicans or young Americans who reside in rural or small town areas. A University of Maryland, College Park, University of Maryland poll later found that 34 percent of Americans felt violent action against the government is justified (40 percent of Republicans, 41 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats). Journalist David Smith (journalist), David Smith summarizes the public perception of a civil war, by stating: "The mere fact that such notions are entering the public domain shows the once unthinkable has become thinkable, even though some would argue it remains firmly improbable." Meanwhile, Georgetown University's Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service, Institute of Politics and Public Service asked voters to rank political division in America on a 0-100 scale, with 100 representing "on the edge of a civil war." The mean response was 70.36. Other research indicates that between a third and a half of the country is anticipating a civil war in their lifetime, particularly among young, rural Americans who identify as Republican or conservative. A May 2022 poll conducted by the University of Chicago Institute of Politics found that more than half of Americans think the government is corrupt, and more than a quarter (Strong Republicans 45%, Independents 35%, strong Democrats 21%, total 28%) agree with "it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take arms up against the government." In a TV interview the poll's conductors, Republican Neil Newhouse and Democrat Joel Benenson, attributed the situation to a "pandemic of mistrust between Americans and their government, and the media," and "partisanship and the media they consume." As the media are seen as partisan, this leads the public to rely on social media where their own views are reinforced. Research from the University of California and the California Violence Research Center demonstrated that half of Americans "at least somewhat agree that a civil war will happen soon." Researchers said the conclusions were consistent with two years of polling, stating: "the motivating premises for this survey were that current conditions in the US create both perceived threats and actual threats to its future as a free and democratic society. The findings bear out both premises.”


Research regarding a Second Civil War

Sociologist Jack Goldstone of George Mason University and quantitative historian Peter Turchin, using a Structural-demographic theory, predictive model for political instability, concluded in 2020 that the United States is "headed for civil war." The first prediction came in 2010 when Turchin cited stagnating or declining wages,
income inequality There are wide varieties of economic inequality, most notably income inequality measured using the distribution of income (the amount of money people are paid) and wealth inequality measured using the distribution of wealth (the amount of we ...
, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding Government debt, public debt as predictors of civil war. Turchin reaffirmed the model's predictions in 2016 after the election of Trump, concluding that political instability would peak in the 2020s. As the model's predictions unfolded in 2020, Turchin said the predictions were vindicated and he also said that political trends in the U.S. are "strongly associated" with civil violence, summarizing the research by stating: "Our model shows there is plenty of dangerous tinder piled up and any spark could generate an inferno." Meanwhile, researchers at the Brookings Institution countered that the outbreak of a civil war would be limited by several factors: a strong national rule of law, a lack of government-sponsored violence, no clear regional split, and likely conflict resolution through elections or public policy. However, the researchers suggested that an uptick in domestic terrorism and mass violence could occur, and they also stated that the outbreak of a civil war was not entirely impossible, concluding: "we should not assume it could not happen and ignore the ominous signs that conflict is spiraling out of control." Some observers have noted that recent interstate migration, fueled on the basis of state laws around issues like abortion and COVID-19-related mandates, is helping to create a more homogeneous blue versus red landscape that might help reinforce the perception of a forthcoming civil war or secession. Writing for ''
Foreign Policy A state's foreign policy or external policy (as opposed to internal or domestic policy) is its objectives and activities in relation to its interactions with other states, unions, and other political entities, whether bilaterally or through ...
'', international relations scholar Monica Toft identified three elements that could lead to civil war in the United States in the coming years: the existence of a prior civil war, divided national identity on lines of "race, faith and class," and a "shift from tribalism to sectarianism." Toft states: "if one described them—fractured elites with competing narratives, deep-seated identity cleavages, and a politically polarized citizenry—without identifying the United States by name, most scholars of civil war would say, "Hey, that country is on the brink of a civil war."
Barbara F. Walter Barbara F. Walter is an American political scientist who is the Rohr Professor of International affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. She is known for her work on bargaining theory and po ...
, a political scientist who sits on the Political Instability Task Force, claimed that Quantitative research, quantitative and Qualitative research, qualitative Predictive modelling, predictive modeling, used by the research project to forecast civil wars in foreign countries, showed that the United States is facing "conditions that make civil war likely." Walter claimed the two most predictive factors of civil war include: # If that country is an
anocracy Anocracy or semi-democracy is a form of government that is loosely defined as part democracy and part dictatorship, or as a "regime that mixes democratic with autocratic features." Another definition classifies anocracy as "a regime that permits ...
(also called semi- or partial democracy), a Democratic backsliding, weak democracy, or an illiberal democracy. # If at least one political party experiences ethnic factionalism and begins to organize on Identity politics, identity such as race, religion and ethnicity (as opposed to policy), and that party, perceiving an existential disadvantage in free elections, sought to implement
minority rule In political science, minoritarianism (or minorityism) is a neologism for a political structure or process in which a minority segment of a population has a certain degree of primacy in that entity's decision making. Minoritarianism may be contr ...
through non-democratic means. Walter claims both apply to the modern United States: # Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election downgraded the nation into the "middle-ground" between democracy and autocracy, citing research by the Center for Systematic Peace, a think-tank that researches political violence. # The homogeneity of voters who support the Republican Party, which is composed of 80-90 percent Evangelicalism in the United States, white Evangelicals, and an attempt by that party to cement
minority rule In political science, minoritarianism (or minorityism) is a neologism for a political structure or process in which a minority segment of a population has a certain degree of primacy in that entity's decision making. Minoritarianism may be contr ...
in a Multiculturalism, multicultural and multi-faith nation because the size of their voting base is no longer large enough to win elections (due in part to white decline). Republican presidential candidates have only won the popular vote once since 1988. Walter claims that white male Republican candidates will continue to underperform in national elections because of an increasingly multicultural Efforts to reform the United States Electoral College, one-person one-vote society. She also states that leaders within the Republican Party recognize that they "no longer benefit from democracy" and must now seek non-democratic ways to retain power. Some data analysts have questioned if the Republican Party is coalescing around white conservative Christians, pointing to 2020 United States presidential election in Florida, inroads with the Latino population in the 2020 Presidential Election. Walter claims inroads by Republicans with other demographics are nominal, and that the Republican party has become a "whites-only" party ever since the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Civil Rights Act in 1964. Walter concludes that "every year we don't reform our democracy and make it stronger... every year that we have one of our two major parties appealing to only one segment of our society: the Christianity in the United States, white Christian population, [and] every year that those two factors continue to exist, our risk [of civil war] increases." Walter adds that "Liberal democracy, full liberal democracies don't have civil wars," claiming predictive modeling places the possibility of a civil war in countries similar to the United States at among the highest: an annual risk of 3.4%. Noting some might perceive that number as "small," Walter states that the risk rate will increase annually if systematic problems remain unaddressed, likening the risk of civil war to the annual risk increase of lung cancer for every year a smoker doesn't quit smoking. Walter summarizes her interpretation of the data by stating: "if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America – the same way you'd look at events in Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine or Second Ivorian Civil War, Ivory Coast or Venezuelan presidential crisis, Venezuela – you would go down a checklist" and "what you would find is that the United States ... has entered very dangerous territory." Walter compares the current political framework of the United States to partial democracies such as Politics of Ecuador, Ecuador, Politics of Somalia, Somalia, or Government of Haiti, Haiti, and falls short of full democracies like Politics of Norway, Norway, Politics of Switzerland, Switzerland, or Politics of Iceland, Iceland. Journalist David Remnick, David J. Remnick agrees with Walter's assessment, stating the grim suspension "between democracy and autocracy" creates an uncertain political future that "radically heightens the likelihood of episodic bloodletting in America, and even the risk of civil war."
Carl Bernstein Carl Milton Bernstein ( ; born February 14, 1944) is an American investigative journalist and author. While a young reporter for ''The Washington Post'' in 1972, Bernstein was teamed up with Bob Woodward, and the two did much of the original n ...
also claims Trump has driven fear in Christians, stating: "Whatever you say about Trump, 45, damn near 50% of the people who vote, voted for him and – you look at the surveys – some 35% of people who voted for Trump believe Christianity is being taken away from them. The idea that the Trump base is some narrow group of white men with guns? Bullshit. This is a huge movement including misogynistic women, including racists of every kind, but also including all kinds of educated people in cities and suburbs. It's also a movement against Anti-liberalism, liberalism, against what the Democratic party in their view has come to represent. It's about race, all kinds of forces, people’s idea of what the United States ought to be. This movement embraces autocracy, authoritarianism, a peculiarly American neo-fascism which Trump represents''."'' Political scientist Julie Novkov notes that, while a similar political climate existed prior to the American Civil War, "Compromise of 1877, the compromise that ended Reconstruction may begin to look like a plausible way out: leaving states to develop and implement policies based on the world views of those who control their dominant parties, with all that that could mean for those living there," often resulting in a constitutional crisis and
minority rule In political science, minoritarianism (or minorityism) is a neologism for a political structure or process in which a minority segment of a population has a certain degree of primacy in that entity's decision making. Minoritarianism may be contr ...
, but not a "shooting war." Meanwhile, Boston College professor Heather Cox Richardson suggested that Biden could find an out by rallying the divided country by declaring "war on the authoritarians threatening our democracy, much the same as Abraham Lincoln did." Some interpreted these remarks as unfairly comparing modern Republicans to Slavery in the United States, slaveowners prior to the Civil War.


Among investors

Notably, there has also been some discussion of a civil war among financial investors on Wall Street. In 2021, billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio began warning of "some form" of future civil war. Dalio placed the chance of a civil war in America in the next 5 to 10 years at 30%, citing "bad financial conditions and intense conflict." Dalio says there is a "dangerously high risk" of government breakdown between the state and federal levels that won't go through the "rulebook" of Constitution of the United States, The Constitution, creating a "power conflict that could take it's various forms." Dalio added that "history has taught is that when the causes that people are behind are more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy." In 2022, Dalio authored an article on LinkedIn, Linkedin, echoing his prior concerns, stating: "The current financial conditions and irreconcilable differences in desires and values are consistent with the ingredients leading to some form of civil war." Dalio blames bad financial conditions caused by National debt of the United States, increasing federal debt, Taxation in the United States, high taxes,
inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduct ...
, and Wealth inequality in the United States, wealth inequality, which has created discontentment among Americans that is being further aggravated by misinformation, propaganda, and Populism, populist movements on the left and right. Dalio warns the 2022 midterms will worsen the political environment because "extremist-populists will win because each side wants fighters, not compromisers, and moderates will also choose not to run."


Criticism of discussion about a "Second Civil War"

There has been some backlash from some political scientists and commentators regarding discussion of a second civil war. Observers claim the incendiary nature of the topic in the mainstream could Demonization, demonize conservatives, or act as a "
self-fulfilling prophecy A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's or group of persons' belief or expectation that said prediction would come true. This suggests that people's beliefs influence their actions. T ...
." Other critics claim the term "civil war" is being misused.


As a form of fearmongering which is intended to demonize conservatives

Several conservative thinkers have criticized mainstream discussion about a civil war, generally claiming that it serves as a form of
fearmongering Fearmongering, or scaremongering, is a form of manipulation that causes fear by using exaggerated rumors of impending danger. Theory According to evolutionary psychology, humans have a strong impulse to pay attention to danger because awareness ...
which is intended to Demonization, demonize conservatives. Some of them have claimed that the discussion about a civil war is an intentional conspiracy which is designed to instill fear and help the federal government justify its Civil liberties in the United States, suspension of the American people's civil rights. Writing for the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a conservative think tank in New York, Lee Seigel argues that the discussion about a second civil war is "hyperbolic" and essentially impossible given current conditions, claiming that America is facing an Epistemology, epistemological crisis rather than an Existential crisis, existential one. Seigel argues that in order for a civil war to occur, two separate armies would need to be ready to wage war against each other, and he also argues that no true existential threat actually exists against any group of Americans, but he warns: "We should be careful how we use such a term, lest fears of political catastrophe become self-fulfilling prophecies." Ross Douthat, a Political analyst for ''The New York Times,'' recognized the fact that political polarization is increasing, but he blamed liberals for exaggerating the fear of a civil war, especially in the aftermath of the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot. Conservative author Steven F. Hayward echoed this sentiment, stating that the Democratic Party is exaggerating the fear of a civil war as a political attack against conservatives, claiming: "If a new civil war does come, it will be on account of the intransigence of the same party that started the first one." Meanwhile, conservative columnist John Feehery claims that left-wing politicians are exaggerating the fear of a "phony" civil war in order to enact "self-serving" John Lewis Voting Rights Act, voting laws that would make it easier for them to win elections. Essayist Michael Anton, a senior fellow at the Claremont Institute and former Trump official, went further, claiming a manufactured fear of civil war is being promoted by Mainstream media, the mainstream media as a means of Manipulation (psychology), psychological manipulation to help the deep state "crush opposition" from conservatives. Anton claims such lies serve as a pretext for the federal government to clampdown on political opponents and impose "
censorship Censorship is the suppression of speech, public communication, or other information. This may be done on the basis that such material is considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or "inconvenient". Censorship can be conducted by governments ...
, Mass surveillance in the United States, surveillance, No-knock warrant, no-knock raids, Search and seizure, computer and records seizures, Asset forfeiture, asset confiscation, frivolous (but deadly serious) criminal charges, endless pretrial detention, and draconian sentences for misdemeanors and noncrimes."


The misuse of the term "Second Civil War"

Fintan O'Toole, recalling discussion of an Irish Civil War during The Troubles, states that characterizing modern political turbulence in the U.S. as an emerging civil war is a "failure of historical perspective," while historian Gary W. Gallagher states that such characterization "represents a spectacular lack of understanding about American history" and that the country will "almost certainly will emerge from current controversies intact." Nikhil Pal Singh of New York University claims "the spectre of civil war" is a mislabeling of "endemic" violence and illiberal fatalism, adding that the "politics of anticipatory fear has served up a long, dismal record of misdiagnosing fundamental problems." O'Toole points to historical events, such as the American Indian Wars, the Tulsa race massacre, King assassination riots, the Martin Luther King, Jr. assassination riots, and the 1992 Los Angeles riots as examples of heightened political tension that did not spark a civil war in America. O'Toole says modern violence is similar to these events and unlikely to trigger civil war, stating: "The comforting fiction that the U.S. used to be a glorious and settled democracy prevents any reckoning with the fact that its current crisis is not a terrible departure from the past but rather a product of the unresolved contradictions of its history." Marche disagrees, maintaining that the legitimacy of U.S. institutions, including the Federal judiciary of the United States, courts, News media in the United States, press and United States Congress, Congress, is "in freefall" and can't be compared to prior social upheaval because an "incipient illegitimacy crisis" is being pushed by the political right, which is causing conservatives to "abandoned faith in government." Marche concludes: "The United States today is, once again, headed for civil war, and, once again, it cannot bear to face it." Political analyst Lincoln Mitchell argues that "casual talk" of a second civil war is unhelpful because most Americans "may miss its arrival," stating there won't be a clear moment such as the Battle of Fort Sumter, shooting at Fort Sumter, but rather a "chaotic" escalation of violence similar to what occurred during the George Floyd protests and the 2021 Capitol attack. Mitchell also adds that "casual talk of a national divorce" or peaceful Secession in the United States, secession is "absurd," adding: "the cost of breaking up America would be extremely high for all of us." American University associate professor Thomas Zeitzoff also objects to the conversation because it "could be self-fulfilling," noting that "paying acute attention to the danger might make the danger more likely." He also notes that statistical analysis is likely overstating the tolerance for violence by everyday American citizens, triggering unnecessary panic. Ron Elving for NPR summarizes this by stating: "too much thinking about the unthinkable can become acceptance of the unacceptable." Zeitzoff also notes that "
civil war A civil war or intrastate war is a war between organized groups within the same state (or country). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government polici ...
" has a scholarly definition as "a high-intensity conflict, often involving Regular army, regular armed forces, that is sustained, organized and large-scale" and is an "extreme manifestation of political violence" beyond anything exhibited in the modern United States, and includes measurable benchmarks such as total battle deaths and duration of conflict. Therefore, the accepted definition of a civil war undermines any conversation of "civil war" being used in the mainstream. Others note that most civil wars are based on a certain threshold of combatant deaths, often 1,000 or more. Dartmouth College, Dartmouth political science professor Brendan Nyhan agrees, arguing the term "civil war" is being used interchangeably with "Democratic backsliding, threat to democracy" and distracts from actual political crises such as a rise in authoritarianism.
Politico ''Politico'' (stylized in all caps), known originally as ''The Politico'', is an American, German-owned political journalism newspaper company based in Arlington County, Virginia, that covers politics and policy in the United States and intern ...
co-founder John F. Harris argues that the misuse of civil war in the national dialogue should give "solace" for the future, claiming that everyday Americans are contemptuous of each other but with "no one really knowing what the conflict is about." Without a real unifying cause to fight for or against (such as Slavery in the United States, slavery), Harris concludes that the political environment is akin to a "national crack-up," adding: "it's hard to have a real civil war without a real cause." Gallagher agrees, stating: "No political issue in 2022 approaches slavery in terms of potential explosiveness." Musa al-Gharbi, a fellow at the Sociology at Columbia University, said the fear of civil war is "overblown" and is "almost purely an artifact of people taking poll and survey data at face value despite overwhelming evidence that we probably shouldn't." Al-Gharbi noted a decrease in political violence in 2021, stating: "In fact, rather than January 6 serving as a prelude to a civil war, the US saw lower levels of death from political violence in 2021 than in any other year since the turn of the century. Even as violent crime approached record highs across much of the country, fatalities from ''political'' violence dropped. This is not an outcome that seems consistent with large and growing shares of the population supposedly leaning towards settling the culture wars with bullets instead of ballots." Writing in Socialism, socialist magazine Jacobin (magazine), Jacobin, journalist Ryan Zickgraf was critical of Marche and Walter for stoking civil war anxiety, which he claimed "isn't just overblown — it's also politically useless," stating: "Ultimately, we don't need the threat of a civil war to stay vigilant. It's possible to be alarmed by Trump's behind-the-scenes attempts to overturn the election and right-wing authoritarian movements whose increasingly violent antigovernmental arguments are becoming more mainstream in the Republican Party without hitting the panic button. Not every act of rebellion, even one as cinematic as a horned barbarian at the gates of Congress, signals The End of the Republic."
Barbara F. Walter Barbara F. Walter is an American political scientist who is the Rohr Professor of International affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. She is known for her work on bargaining theory and po ...
is critical of civil war skeptics, stating: "What everybody said, whether they were in Iraq Civil War (2014–17), Baghdad or Bosnian War, Sarajevo or Ukraine Civil War (2014), Kiev, was we didn't see it coming. In fact, we weren't willing to accept that anything was wrong until we heard machine gun fire in the hillside. And by that time, it was too late."


In international media

In June 2022, Deutsche Welle, the German state-owned international broadcaster, aired a 42 min. segment titled ''Abortion, guns, racism: Is America a worn-out role model?'' [''Abtreibung, Waffen, Rassismus: Haben die USA als Vorbild ausgedient?'']. Hosted by Tina Gerhäusser, the guests were (French political scientist, founder of the Center for Intersectional Justice in Berlin), (political scientist, USA expert), and Nicole Renvert (analyst, non-resident fellow at the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies). The first 22 min. were about the overturning of
Roe v. Wade ''Roe v. Wade'', 410 U.S. 113 (1973),. was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States conferred the right to have an abortion. The decision struck down many federal and st ...
and the growing conservatism of the Supreme Court; mins. 22-30 were about Gun violence in the United States, gun violence and how the ownership of guns is seen by the American people; mins. 30-38 were about the events of 2021 United States Capitol attack, January 6, 2021 and the possibility of Trump or the Republicans returning to power in an electoral structure in which someone who does not have a popular majority can win. In the final minutes, the host asked the guests about whether the USA is still a role model of democracy. Ms. Roig said that given its historical record of human rights violations it had never been one. Mr. Braml said that considering one-third of Republican lawmakers and voters don't recognize Biden as a legitimate president, they think guns can be used to defend what they view as a democracy, and they have many guns, something alike or worse than January 6 could happen, including drifting into a civil war ["Amerika in einem Bürgerkrieg abdriften könnte," min.41:06]. Ms. Renvert said that the USA's innovation, universities and educated people are still attracting the young from around the world.


In popular culture


Literature

* The short story ''The Impossible Life and The Possible Death Of Preston J. Cole'' from ''List of Halo media#Printed media, Halo Evolutions'' refers to the historical civil war as the ''first'' American Civil War, hinting at least one other civil war broke out between then and the time of the story. * In the semi-satire, satirical 1935 political novel by American author Sinclair Lewis, ''It Can't Happen Here'', a second civil war breaks out due to the tyrant, tyrannical policies of fictional President Berzelius "Buzz" Windrip. Published during the rise of fascism in Europe, the novel describes the rise of Windrip, a politician who defeats Franklin D. Roosevelt, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) and is elected President of the United States, after fomenting fear and promising drastic economic and social reforms while promoting a return to patriotism and "traditional" values. After his election, Windrip takes complete control of the government and imposes a plutocracy, plutocratic/totalitarianism, totalitarian rule with the help of a ruthless paramilitary force, in the manner of Adolf Hitler and the SS. The novel's plot centers on journalist Doremus Jessup's opposition to the new regime and his subsequent struggle against it as part of a liberal rebellion. Reviewers at the time, and literary critics since, have emphasized the connection with Louisiana politician Huey Long, who was preparing to run for president in the 1936 election when he was assassinated in 1935 just prior to the novel's publication. * Philip K. Dick's 1974 novel, ''Flow My Tears, the Policeman Said'' is set in a futuristic dystopia, where the United States has become a police state in the aftermath of a Second Civil War. The story follows a genetically enhanced pop singer and television star who wakes up in a world where he has never existed. * In Canadian author Margaret Atwood's 1985 dystopian novel, ''The Handmaid's Tale'', a secretive group of religious fundamentalism, fundamentalists called "The Sons of Jacob" stages an attack that kills the U.S. president and most of Congress. In the ensuing political and social upheaval, the group launches a hostile revolution and suspends the United States Constitution under the pretext of restoring order. Within this autocratic new system, the group is quickly able to curtail or take away human, civil, and in particular women's rights. Under their newfound authority, The Sons of Jacob declare the establishment of The Republic of Gilead — a theocracy, theocratic military
dictatorship A dictatorship is a form of government which is characterized by a leader, or a group of leaders, which holds governmental powers with few to no limitations on them. The leader of a dictatorship is called a dictator. Politics in a dictatorship a ...
within the borders of what was formerly the United States of America. The new regime moves quickly to consolidate its power and reorganize society with an Old Testament-inspired social and religious fanaticism, and enshrines in law a militarized, hierarchical system of newly created societal classes and cultural castes. At the same time, the Gileadian army continues to fight a Second American Civil War against various factions who oppose the new regime. The novel primarily takes place 16 years after the events that occurred during the establishment of Gilead, and depicts a grim picture of society, where pollution caused by nuclear and biological issues have caused near-universal infertility and a sharp rise in birth defects, where women are subjugated and valued only for their reproductive capacities, and where minorities of every stripe are persecuted. * In 1993, author David Aikman wrote ''When the Almond Tree Blossoms'', a novel describing a second American Civil War. The book detailed an account of an east–west divide following a U.S. defeat and surrender following a battle in the Middle East. The two sides, The Constitutionalists and People's Movement are locked in a bitter fight. A sequel to the book is currently under development by Aikman. * In the 1995 alternate history/time travel novel ''ARC Riders'' by David Drake and Janet Morris, the United States is on the verge of collapse and possible nuclear civil war due to over two decades of harsh military rule as a result of the ARC Raiders meddling with the Vietnam War. * In the 1997 alternate history novel ''Back in the USSA'' by Eugene Byrne and Kim Newman, a Second American Civil War and a Second American Revolution occur as a result of the corrupt presidency of Charles Foster Kane, who becomes the 28th president after former president and Progressive Party (United States, 1912), Progressive Party candidate Theodore Roosevelt wins the 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 presidential election, but is assassinated on December 19, 1912, before taking office by the sharpshooter and exhibition shooter Annie Oakley when he personally attempts to break up a labor strike at the
Chicago (''City in a Garden''); I Will , image_map = , map_caption = Interactive Map of Chicago , coordinates = , coordinates_footnotes = , subdivision_type = List of sovereign states, Count ...
Union Stock Yards with the help of the Rough Riders. Due to his being Roosevelt's running mate, Kane becomes president on March 4, 1913. By 1917, the U.S. becomes unstable politically and socially. That year, the Socialist Party of America, Socialist Party led by Eugene Debs gains increasing support and both a Second American Civil War and Second American Revolution (both based on the Russian Civil War and Russian Revolution, respectively) breaks out, following which Kane is ousted from the White House, overthrown, and executed for treason. The United States becomes the United Socialist States of America (USSA) with Debs as its president, surviving until his death in 1926. * In the 2002 short story "Southern Strategy" by Michael Flynn (writer), Michael F. Flynn that is collected in the anthology ''Alternate Generals II'' by Harry Turtledove, a shortened World War I leaves the German Empire a world power in the 20th century, while the United States all but collapses during a genocide-based second civil war. * In the 2002 novel ''A Disturbance of Fate'' by Mitchell J. Freedman, in which Robert F. Kennedy survives Assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, the attempt on his life, Governor Barry Sadler of Arizona wins the 1984 United States presidential election. Sadler's anti-union actions lead to a general strike, which Sadler's reaction escalates into a civil war. * In one of the timelines in the 2003 novel ''Fuzzy Dice'' by Paul Di Filippo, George McGovern is narrowly elected president in 1972 United States presidential election, 1972 after incumbent Richard Nixon had undergone an assassination attempt and become completely paranoid, waging a crackdown on real and imagined domestic foes as well as a huge escalation of the Vietnam War, and setting off a huge explosion of countrywide riots. The riots continue and even increase after McGovern's election and a call by the new president for a return to calm proves completely ineffective. McGovern rejects a call in Congress to use the Army to quell the riots, leading to an attempted impeachment. Some military commanders try repression on their own, killing civilians and only adding to the ferocity of the riots. Eventually, the country is plunged into chaos, an all-out Second American Civil War, and eventually the total collapse of the Old Order. When the book's protagonist arrives some decades later, he finds a "Hippie-style" dictatorship presided over by the monstrous Lady Sunshine and with Hells Angels acting as the police, and the final fate of McGovern is unknown. * ''Empire (Card novel), Empire'' by Orson Scott Card is a 2006 novel set in a near-future US (implied to be 2008) where after the President and Vice President are assassinated, civil war breaks out. A left-wing group called the Progressive Restoration rises up, seeking to reverse change since George W. Bush's election, with the main characters becoming involved in the conflict. The novel is a tie-in to the ''Shadow Complex'' video game, with ''Hidden Empire'' following in 2009. * In the 2012 novel by Billy Bennett titled ''By Force of Arms'' (part of a series by the author focusing on American Civil War alternate histories, a victorious Confederacy), the United States (led by William Tecumseh Sherman) and the Confederate States (led by Robert E. Lee) fight "The Second American Civil War" in 1869 due to Confederate and Second French Empire, French Second French intervention in Mexico, military involvement in Mexico, with fighting spreading across the two countries from ironclads firing at each other in the Gulf of California, trench warfare in the Confederate state of Virginia, Buffalo Soldiers fighting in the west, pro-Confederate bushwacker, bushwhacker partisans in the Union state of Missouri made even more deadly by the usage of the introduction of Breech-loading weapon, breech-loading rifles and Gatling guns. * The 2013 novel ''Pulse'' by Patrick Carman depicts a Second Civil War, escalating into a nuclear disaster, leaving only one area of land habitable, divided into 2 states constantly at war. * ''American War (novel), American War'', the 2017 debut novel by Omar El Akkad, is told from the viewpoint of members of the Chestnut family who have experienced the War first-hand. The War begins in 2074, when anthropogenic climate change has led to a ban on fossil fuels, leading to the secession of several Southern states. The events of the novel themselves are influenced by widespread plagues, and culture wars over increased immigration of Muslims. * ''Tropic of Kansas'', the 2017 debut novel by Christopher Brown (author), Christopher Brown, is told from the points of view of Sig, an orphan running from the law, and Tania, a government investigator forced to hunt him. The two are foster brother and sister. In this setting, the US has broken into warring factions, with most of the action taking place in a new wasteland in the Midwest.


Film

* The 1996 film ''Barb Wire (1996 film), Barb Wire'', based upon the 1994 Barb Wire (character), comic book of the same name, is set in 2017 during the "Second American Civil War". Titular heroine Barb Wire (Pamela Anderson) owns the Hammerhead, a nightclub in Steel Harbor — "the last free city" in a United States ravaged by the civil war—and she brings in extra cash working as a mercenary and bounty hunter. * ''The Second Civil War'': a 1997 made-for-TV movie wherein the title conflict erupts over immigration, with the country having become inundated with Immigration to the United States, immigrants and Asylum in the United States, refugees, and the president attempting to settle more refugees in a resistant Idaho. * The 2005 V for Vendetta (film), film adaptation of ''V for Vendetta'' mentions an ongoing civil war in the United States, with fighting said to be devastating the midwest. The war, combined with a plague, allegedly cripples the country to the point where its government petitions to the United Kingdom for medical supplies. However, both reports come from the fascist Norsefire regime's propaganda sources in the United Kingdom, leaving the existence of the war in question. * The 2017 film ''Bushwick (film), Bushwick'' set in the New York City neighborhood of the same name, deals with mysterious invaders. It is later revealed that the invaders are mercenaries sent by a Texas-led coalition comprised by Southern states seeking to secede from the US. * The 2019 film ''In the Shadow of the Moon (2019 film), In the Shadow of the Moon'' set in
Philadelphia Philadelphia, often called Philly, is the largest city in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the sixth-largest city in the U.S., the second-largest city in both the Northeast megalopolis and Mid-Atlantic regions after New York City. Since ...
is a sci-fi thriller about the death of several people at different points in time. It is later revealed that the deaths were targeted killings to prevent another civil war. *The 2021 film ''The Forever Purge'' shows the United States of America in a civil war state between military forces and a white supremacist group referred as the "Forever" Purgers.


Television

* In season two of the 2006 TV series ''Jericho (2006 TV series), Jericho'', a second American Civil War begins between the United States and the separatist United States government in Jericho, Allied States of America. Members within the US government conspire to bomb 23 American cities in order to kill the President and other heads of Government. After the power grid is knocked out, new leaders organize and make a new government called the Allied States of America, which occupy everything West of the Mississippi River, excluding Texas, which becomes independent. Everything east belongs to the remaining United States. The Allied States leaders frame Iran and North Korea for the attacks, and subsequently nuke the two countries. The new government gradually transforms into an oppressive and authoritarian fascist regime. Civil war begins when it is revealed that leaders within the Allied States of America were ring leaders of the previous attacks on American cities. In the Jericho Season 3: Civil War, sequel comic book series, the Allied States launches a devastating invasion of Texas, presumably defeating the country. Despite this, the war with the United States and rebels in Allied territory continues. * In the ''Family Guy'' episode "Back to the Pilot", Brian travels back in time to 1999 and tells his younger self to prevent the September 11 attacks. By doing so, George W. Bush is unable to exploit fears of terrorism and secure re-election. After losing the 2004 United States presidential election, 2004 election, Bush reforms Confederate States of America, the Confederacy and declares war on the United States, resulting in a post-apocalyptic future. * A television pilot, pilot film for a proposed TV drama, ''Civil'', about a disputed election that slides into civil unrest and eventually war, was optioned by TNT (American TV network), TNT in 2016. However TNT decided not to proceed as it was felt to be too close to home for the 2016 United States presidential election, 2016 U.S. presidential election. * The 2022 TV series ''DMZ (miniseries), DMZ'' takes place in the aftermath of the evacuation of Manhattan during a second American Civil War. * "Strange New Worlds", the 2022 pilot episode of ''Star Trek: Strange New Worlds'', reveals that 23rd-century historians consider the Second Civil War to have already begun in the early 2020s.


Video games

* The ''Deus Ex'' video game series, first released in 2000, depict a United States reshaped by what is called the "Northwest War", where several states secede from the union due to an unpopular gun control law and increasing dissent with the federal government. The main antagonists for the first act of the game, the National Secession Forces, are descended from the Northwest Secession Forces who fought the United States during the war, although the newer NSF is more kin to a left-wing populist movement, and the original was more akin to a right-wing militia. * ''Shattered Union'', a 2005 video game published by 2K Games, depicts a civil war between six factions of the former United States and the European Union, following the destruction of Washington, D.C. in a nuclear attack. * The science-fiction, action-roleplaying, third-person shooter ''Mass Effect'' series, first released in 2007, has this subject in its backstory, spawning from the creation of the United North American States.


See also

* American decline *
American militia movement The American militia movement is a term used by law enforcement and security analysts to refer to a number of private organizations that include paramilitary or similar elements. These groups may refer to themselves as militia, unorganized milit ...
* List of active separatist movements in North America * Names of the American Civil War * Neo-Confederate * Origins of the American Civil War * Patriot movement * Political polarization in the United States * Radical right (United States) * Secession in the United States * Second American Revolution * Terrorism in the United States ** Domestic terrorism in the United States


References

http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2223-03862013000200010&lng=en&nrm=iso


Further reading

*{{cite news , url=https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/jan/07/political-scientist-warns-second-civil-war-after-c/ , title=UC San Diego Political Scientist Warns Of A Second Civil War After Capitol Riot , date=January 7, 2021 , work=KPBS-FM, KPBS , last=Hindmon , first=Jade Second American Civil War speculative fiction, Fictional wars Possible future wars Boogaloo movement Theories of history