Split Ticket is an American political forecasting website that was founded in 2021. The website predicts elections for the

United States presidential election The election of the president of the United States, president and Vice President of the United States, vice president of the United States is an indirect election in which citizens of the United States who are Voter registration in the United ...

by state, the

United States Senate The United States Senate is a chamber of the Bicameralism, bicameral United States Congress; it is the upper house, with the United States House of Representatives, U.S. House of Representatives being the lower house. Together, the Senate and ...

, the

United States House of Representatives The United States House of Representatives is a chamber of the Bicameralism, bicameral United States Congress; it is the lower house, with the U.S. Senate being the upper house. Together, the House and Senate have the authority under Artic ...

, and

gubernatorial A governor is an administrative leader and head of a polity or political region, in some cases, such as governors-general, as the head of a state's official representative. Depending on the type of political region or polity, a ''governor'' ma ...

elections.

History

The website was founded in 2021 by Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle, and Armin Thomas. The interest for the website initially came from a

Twitter Twitter, officially known as X since 2023, is an American microblogging and social networking service. It is one of the world's largest social media platforms and one of the most-visited websites. Users can share short text messages, image ...

community, known as Election Twitter. Leon Sit joined the website in 2022, and Max McCall joined in 2024. Jain first entered political media following the

2016 United States presidential election United States presidential election, Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 8, 2016. The Republican Party (United States), Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor, Indiana governor Mike P ...

, and the surprise that came from the unexpected result. In 2023, they used a "wins above replacement" method to determine what candidates over performed expectations, based on the PVI and the political environment. They found that

Joe Manchin Joseph Manchin III ( ; born August 24, 1947) is an American businessman and retired politician who served as a United States senator from West Virginia from 2010 to 2025. He was West Virginia's only congressional Democrat until he registered as ...

and

Jon Tester Raymond Jon Tester (born August 21, 1956) is an American politician and farmer who served from 2007 to 2025 as a United States Senate, United States senator from Montana and from 2005 to 2007 as president of the Montana Senate. A member of the ...

were the two winning candidates that performed the best, above what was expected. They also found that Republican Problem Solvers and Blue Dogs performed better in both caucuses and the 2022 general election. In 2024, the website partnered with

Politico ''Politico'' (stylized in all caps), known originally as ''The Politico'', is an American political digital newspaper company founded by American banker and media executive Robert Allbritton in 2007. It covers politics and policy in the Unit ...

to create a game in which the user plays as a

campaign manager A campaign manager, campaign chairperson, or campaign director is an individual whose role is to coordinate a political campaign's spending, broad tactics, and hiring. They lead operations such as Campaign finance, fundraising, advertising, Opi ...

. The game created an algorithm that split

U.S. counties In the United States, a county or county equivalent is an administrative subdivision of a state or territory, typically with defined geographic boundaries and some level of governmental authority. The term "county" is used in 48 states, whil ...

into separate groups based on how they would vote. They also published a

New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...

opinion article about campaign money spent on abortion ads.

Predictions

In making predictions, the website focuses on polling aggregators that factor in how old a poll is, quality of other polls, population, and sample size. During the 2024 election cycle, the group correctly forecasted 513 out of 525 federal elections correctly using their quantitative models, missing 3 out of 56 calls at the presidential level, 8 out of 435 in the House of Representatives, and 1 out of 34 races in the Senate elections, for a 98% accuracy rating overall. This placed them only behind 538 for call accuracy among 2024 political handicappers.

References

{{reflist American political websites Internet properties established in 2021 2021 establishments in the United States

History

Predictions

See also

References