Risks of astronomical suffering, also called suffering risks or s-risks, are risks involving much more

suffering Suffering, or pain in a broad sense, may be an experience of unpleasantness or aversion, possibly associated with the perception of harm or threat of harm in an individual. Suffering is the basic element that makes up the negative valence (psyc ...

than all that has occurred on Earth so far. They are sometimes categorized as a subclass of

existential risks A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, endangering or even destroying Modernity, modern civilization. Existential risk is a related term limited to even ...

. According to some scholars, s-risks warrant serious consideration as they are not extremely unlikely and can arise from unforeseen scenarios. Although they may appear speculative, factors such as technological advancement, power dynamics, and historical precedents indicate that advanced technology could inadvertently result in substantial suffering. Thus, s-risks are considered to be a morally urgent matter, despite the possibility of technological benefits. Sources of possible s-risks include embodied

artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computer, computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. It is a field of re ...

and

superintelligence A superintelligence is a hypothetical intelligent agent, agent that possesses intelligence surpassing that of the brightest and most intellectual giftedness, gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of advanced problem- ...

, as well as

space colonization Space colonization (or extraterrestrial colonization) is the human settlement, settlement or colonization of outer space and astronomical bodies. The concept in its broad sense has been applied to any permanent human presence in space, such ...

, which could potentially lead to "constant and catastrophic wars" and an immense increase in

wild animal suffering Wild animal suffering is suffering experienced by non-human animals living in the wild, outside of direct human control, due to natural processes. Its sources include disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, malnutrition, dehydration, weather ...

by introducing wild animals, who "generally lead short, miserable lives full of sometimes the most brutal suffering", to other planets, either intentionally or inadvertently.

Types of S-risk

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computer, computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. It is a field of re ...

is central to s-risk discussions because it may eventually enable powerful actors to control vast technological systems. In a worst-case scenario, AI could be used to create systems of perpetual suffering, such as a totalitarian regime expanding across space. Additionally, s-risks might arise incidentally, such as through AI-driven simulations of conscious beings experiencing suffering, or from economic activities that disregard the well-being of nonhuman or digital minds. Steven Umbrello, an

AI ethics The ethics of artificial intelligence covers a broad range of topics within AI that are considered to have particular ethical stakes. This includes algorithmic biases, fairness, automated decision-making, accountability, privacy, and regulation. ...

researcher, has warned that

biological computing Biological computers use biologically derived molecules — such as DNA and/or proteins — to perform digital or real computations. The development of biocomputers has been made possible by the expanding new science of nanobiotechnology. The ter ...

may make

system design The basic study of system design is the understanding of component parts and their subsequent interaction with one another. Systems design has appeared in a variety of fields, including sustainability, computer/software architecture, and sociolog ...

more prone to s-risks. Brian Tomasik has argued that astronomical suffering could emerge from solving the

AI alignment In the field of artificial intelligence (AI), alignment aims to steer AI systems toward a person's or group's intended goals, preferences, or ethical principles. An AI system is considered ''aligned'' if it advances the intended objectives. A '' ...

problem incompletely. He argues for the possibility of a "near miss" scenario, where a superintelligent AI that is slightly misaligned has the maximum likelihood of causing astronomical suffering, compared to a completely unaligned AI.

Space colonization

Space colonization Space colonization (or extraterrestrial colonization) is the human settlement, settlement or colonization of outer space and astronomical bodies. The concept in its broad sense has been applied to any permanent human presence in space, such ...

could increase suffering by introducing wild animals to new environments, leading to ecological imbalances. In unfamiliar habitats, animals may struggle to survive, facing hunger, disease, and predation. These challenges, combined with unstable ecosystems, could cause population crashes or explosions, resulting in widespread suffering. Additionally, the lack of natural predators or proper biodiversity on colonized planets could worsen the situation, mirroring Earth’s ecological problems on a larger scale. This raises ethical concerns about the unintended consequences of space colonization, as it could propagate immense animal suffering in new, unstable ecosystems. Phil Torres argues that space colonization poses significant "suffering risks", where expansion into space will lead to the creation of diverse species and civilizations with conflicting interests. These differences, combined with advanced weaponry and the vast distances between civilizations, would result in catastrophic and unresolvable conflicts. Strategies like a "cosmic Leviathan" to impose order or deterrence policies are unlikely to succeed due to physical limitations in space and the destructive power of future technologies. Thus, Torres concludes that space colonization could create immense suffering and should be delayed or avoided altogether. Magnus Vinding's "astronomical atrocity problem" questions whether vast amounts of happiness can justify extreme suffering from space colonization. He highlights moral concerns such as diminishing returns on positive goods, the potentially incomparable weight of severe suffering, and the priority of preventing misery. He argues that if colonization is inevitable, it should be led by agents deeply committed to minimizing harm.

Genetic engineering

David Pearce has argued that

genetic engineering Genetic engineering, also called genetic modification or genetic manipulation, is the modification and manipulation of an organism's genes using technology. It is a set of Genetic engineering techniques, technologies used to change the genet ...

is a potential s-risk. Pearce argues that while technological mastery over the pleasure-pain axis and solving the

hard problem of consciousness In the philosophy of mind, the hard problem of consciousness is to explain why and how humans and other organisms have qualia, phenomenal consciousness, or subjective experience. It is contrasted with the "easy problems" of explaining why and how ...

could lead to the potential

eradication of suffering The eradication of suffering or abolition of suffering is a proposed goal within biotechnology and ethics to eliminate involuntary pain and suffering in all sentient beings. The concept involves using advanced techniques in genetic engineering, n ...

, it could also potentially increase the level of contrast in the hedonic range that sentient beings could experience. He argues that these technologies might make it feasible to create "hyperpain" or "dolorium" that experience levels of suffering beyond the human range.

Excessive criminal punishment

S-risk scenarios may arise from excessive criminal punishment, with precedents in both historical and in modern penal systems. These risks escalate in situations such as warfare or terrorism, especially when advanced technology is involved, as conflicts can amplify destructive tendencies like sadism,

tribalism Tribalism is the state of being organized by, or advocating for, tribes or tribal lifestyles. Human evolution primarily occurred in small hunter-gatherer groups, as opposed to in larger and more recently settled agricultural societies or civilizat ...

, and

retributivism Retributive justice is a legal concept whereby the criminal offender receives punishment proportional or similar to the crime. As opposed to revenge, retribution—and thus retributive justice—is not personal, is directed only at wrongdoing, ...

. War often intensifies these dynamics, with the possibility of catastrophic threats being used to force concessions. Agential s-risks are further aggravated by malevolent traits in powerful individuals, such as narcissism or psychopathy. This is exemplified by totalitarian dictators like

Hitler Adolf Hitler (20 April 1889 – 30 April 1945) was an Austrian-born German politician who was the dictator of Nazi Germany from 1933 until Death of Adolf Hitler, his suicide in 1945. Adolf Hitler's rise to power, He rose to power as the lea ...

and

Stalin Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin (born Dzhugashvili; 5 March 1953) was a Soviet politician and revolutionary who led the Soviet Union from 1924 until Death and state funeral of Joseph Stalin, his death in 1953. He held power as General Secret ...

, whose actions in the 20th century inflicted widespread suffering.

Exotic risks

According to David Pearce, there are other potential s-risks that are more exotic, such as those posed by the

many-worlds interpretation The many-worlds interpretation (MWI) is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that the universal wavefunction is Philosophical realism, objectively real, and that there is no wave function collapse. This implies that all Possible ...

of quantum mechanics.

Mitigation strategies

To mitigate s-risks, efforts focus on researching and understanding the factors that exacerbate them, particularly in emerging technologies and social structures. Targeted strategies include promoting safe AI design, ensuring cooperation among AI developers, and modeling future civilizations to anticipate risks. Broad strategies may advocate for moral norms against large-scale suffering and stable political institutions. According to Anthony DiGiovanni, prioritizing s-risk reduction is essential, as it may be more manageable than other long-term challenges, while avoiding catastrophic outcomes could be easier than achieving an entirely utopian future.

Induced amnesia

Induced

amnesia Amnesia is a deficit in memory caused by brain damage or brain diseases,Gazzaniga, M., Ivry, R., & Mangun, G. (2009) Cognitive Neuroscience: The biology of the mind. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. but it can also be temporarily caused by t ...

has been proposed as a way to mitigate s-risks in locked-in conscious AI and certain AI-adjacent biological systems like brain organoids.

Cosmic rescue missions

David Pearce's concept of "cosmic rescue missions" proposes the idea of sending probes to alleviate potential suffering in extraterrestrial environments. These missions aim to identify and mitigate suffering among hypothetical extraterrestrial life forms, ensuring that if life exists elsewhere, it is treated ethically. However, challenges include the lack of confirmed extraterrestrial life, uncertainty about their consciousness, and public support concerns, with environmentalists advocating for non-interference and others focusing on resource extraction.