Recency bias is a

cognitive bias A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm (philosophy), norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the ...

that favors recent events over historic ones. A type of

memory bias Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm and/or rationality in judgment. They are often studied in psychology, sociology and behavioral economics. Although the reality of most of these biases is confirmed by reproducible ...

, recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event", such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate. Recency bias should not be confused with

anchoring An anchor is a device, normally made of metal, used to secure a Watercraft, vessel to the Seabed, bed of a body of water to prevent the craft from drifting due to Leeway, wind or Ocean current, current. The word derives from Latin ', which ...

confirmation bias Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias, myside bias, or congeniality bias) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or Value (ethics and social sciences), val ...

. Recency bias is related to the

serial-position effect Serial-position effect is the tendency of a person to recall the first and last items in a series best, and the middle items worst. The term was coined by Hermann Ebbinghaus through studies he performed on himself, and refers to the finding that ...

known as the

recency effect Serial-position effect is the tendency of a person to recall the first and last items in a series best, and the middle items worst. The term was coined by Hermann Ebbinghaus through studies he performed on himself, and refers to the finding that ...

. It is not to be confused with recency illusion, the belief or impression that a word or language usage is of recent origin when in reality it is long-established.

History

Livy Titus Livius (; 59 BC – AD 17), known in English as Livy ( ), was a Roman historian. He wrote a monumental history of Rome and the Roman people, titled , covering the period from the earliest legends of Rome before the traditional founding i ...

, writing in the 1st century BC, described recency bias in his preface to ''

History of Rome The history of Rome includes the history of the city of Rome as well as the civilisation of ancient Rome. Roman history has been influential on the modern world, especially in the history of the Catholic Church, and Roman law has influenced m ...

:''

Occurrences

It commonly appears in employee evaluations, as a distortion in favor of recently completed activities or recollections, and can be reinforced or offset by the

halo effect The halo effect (sometimes called the halo error) is the tendency for positive impressions of a person, company, country, brand, or product in one area to positively influence one's opinion or feelings. The halo effect is "the name given to the p ...

. In

psychology Psychology is the scientific study of mind and behavior. Its subject matter includes the behavior of humans and nonhumans, both consciousness, conscious and Unconscious mind, unconscious phenomena, and mental processes such as thoughts, feel ...

, primacy bias (excessive focus on earliest events or facts) and recency bias (excessive focus on the most recent events or facts) are often considered together as primacy and recency bias. Recency bias can skew

investors An investor is a person who allocates financial capital with the expectation of a future return (profit) or to gain an advantage (interest). Through this allocated capital the investor usually purchases some species of property. Types of in ...

into not accurately evaluating

economic cycles Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, governmen ...

, causing them to continue to remain invested in a

bull market A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time ...

even when they should grow cautious of its potential continuation, and refrain from buying assets in a

bear market A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time ...

because they remain pessimistic about its prospects of recovery.

When it comes to investing, recency bias often manifests in terms of direction or momentum. It convinces us that a rising market or individual stock will continue to appreciate, or that a declining market or stock is likely to keep falling. This bias often leads us to make emotionally charged choices—decisions that could erode our earning potential by tempting us to hold a stock for too long or pull out too soon.

Lists of superlatives A list is a set of discrete items of information collected and set forth in some format for utility, entertainment, or other purposes. A list may be memorialized in any number of ways, including existing only in the mind of the list-maker, but ...

such as "Top 10 Superbowls", Greatest of All Time (G.O.A.T.), and sports awards (such as MVP trophies, Rookie of the Year, etc.) all are prone to distortion due to recency bias.

Sports betting Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. Sports bettors place their wagers either legally, through a sportsbook or bookmaker (colloquially known as "bookies"), or illegally through priva ...

is also impacted by recency bias."The Five Biggest Cognitive Biases that Impair Most Sports Bettors", Jeff Ma, November 12, 2014, ''ESPN''
/ref> Since at least 2008, reporters have frequently used the term "the pimp spot" to refer to the last slot in competitions such as ''

American Idol ''American Idol'' is an American Music competition, singing competition television series created by Simon Fuller, produced by Fremantle (company), Fremantle North America and 19 Entertainment, and distributed by Fremantle North America. It a ...

'', ''

X-Factor ''The X Factor'' is a television music competition franchise created by British producer Simon Cowell and his company Syco Entertainment. It originated in the United Kingdom, where it was devised as a replacement for '' Pop Idol'' (2001–200 ...

'', '' So You Think You Can Dance'', ''

American Song Contest The ''American Song Contest'' is an American music reality competition television series based on the Eurovision Song Contest. The sole season of the series was hosted by Snoop Dogg and Kelly Clarkson; it consisted of eight episodes airing be ...

'', '' The Voice'', and ''

Dancing with the Stars ''Strictly Come Dancing (widely known as Dancing with the Stars)'' is an international television franchise based on the format of the British TV series '' Strictly Come Dancing,'' itself a successor to the show ''Come Dancing'' (1950–1998) ...

'' and sometimes in conjunction with benefits of starting last. There is empirical evidence in academic literature suggesting that participants who performed later in major song contests, including Eurovision and New Wave (when the order of performances was randomized), were ranked higher.

References

Have the 'American Idol' Producers Turned Against David Archuleta?
''

Vulture A vulture is a bird of prey that scavenges on carrion. There are 23 extant species of vulture (including condors). Old World vultures include 16 living species native to Europe, Africa, and Asia; New World vultures are restricted to Nort ...

'', 14 May 2008. Shirley Halperin.
‘X Factor’: How Astro Got Eminem’s Permission to Alter His Song, Plus 9 More Burning Questions Answered
, ''

The Hollywood Reporter ''The Hollywood Reporter'' (''THR'') is an American digital and print magazine which focuses on the Cinema of the United States, Hollywood film industry, film, television, and entertainment industries. It was founded in 1930 as a daily trade pap ...

'', 10 November 2011. Annie Barrett.
Dancing with the Stars season premiere recap: Will You Accept This Pose?
''

Entertainment Weekly ''Entertainment Weekly'' (sometimes abbreviated as ''EW'') is an American online magazine, digital-only entertainment magazine based in New York City, published by Dotdash Meredith, that covers film, television, music, Broadway theatre, books, ...

'', 19 March 2013. Rebecca Iannucci.
SYTYCD Performance Finale Recap: Who Will (and Should) Win Season 14?
, tvline.com, 18 September 2017. Amanda Bell.
The Voice recap: 'Live Top 12 Performances'
''

'', 20 November 2017. Lyndsey Parker.
Despite a Michael Bolton performance, 'American Song Contest' fails to fulfill its campy (Euro)vision
aol.com / Yahoo! Entertainment, 21 March 2022. Charlie Mason.
The Voice Recap: Whitney Houston, the Top 8 Have a Problem… or Do They?
tvline.com, 5 December 2022.

History

Occurrences

See also

References

Further reading