The

RAND The RAND Corporation, doing business as RAND, is an American nonprofit global policy think tank, research institute, and public sector consulting firm. RAND engages in research and development (R&D) in several fields and industries. Since the ...

Strategy Assessment Center was first conceived in 1979 with the goal of developing “new methods for strategic analysis that combine the best features or war gaming and analytical modeling.” Work began in April 1980. The initial request for the center came from the

Department of Defense The United States Department of Defense (DoD, USDOD, or DOD) is an executive department of the U.S. federal government charged with coordinating and supervising the six U.S. armed services: the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Space Force, ...

while the funding was provided by the

Defense Nuclear Agency The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is both a defense agency and a combat support agency within the United States Department of Defense (DoD) for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD; chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, a ...

.Davis, P.K. & Winnefeld, J.A. ''The Rand Strategy Assessment Center : An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options'', RAND Corporation, 1983

/ref> The interactive, computer supported, war-gaming system uses Red (

Soviets The Soviet people () were the citizens and nationals of the Soviet Union. This demonym was presented in the ideology of the country as the "new historical unity of peoples of different nationalities" (). Nationality policy in the Soviet Union ...

) and Blue (United States) force models (also known as Agents). These represent the two

superpower Superpower describes a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to Sphere of influence, exert influence and Power projection, project power on a global scale. This is done through the comb ...

s primarily being researched. There is also a Scenario Agent, which represents non-superpower countries, and a Force Agent, which simulates the results of military operations and combat.Shlapak, D., Allen, P., & Schwabe, W. ''Plan Synchronization in the RSAC Environment'', RAND Corporation, 1986

/ref> The significance of this program was that humans were no longer needed to run these complex

simulations A simulation is an imitative representation of a process or system that could exist in the real world. In this broad sense, simulation can often be used interchangeably with model. Sometimes a clear distinction between the two terms is made, in ...

. It was now possible for the computer to almost single-handedly run

iteration Iteration is the repetition of a process in order to generate a (possibly unbounded) sequence of outcomes. Each repetition of the process is a single iteration, and the outcome of each iteration is then the starting point of the next iteration. ...

after iteration. Humans could step in and change the scenario, variables, or even take over completely if they so desired, although it was not necessary. The goal was to capture the human-expert contribution and inject that knowledge into the

artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computer, computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. It is a field of re ...

controlling the

computer models Computer simulation is the running of a mathematical model on a computer, the model being designed to represent the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system. The reliability of some mathematical models can be determin ...

Mission

The need for this arose during the late 1970s when current US strategic-nuclear analysis wasn't in depth enough. The current thinking in the US at the time was heavily revolving around the idea of

Mutual Assured Destruction Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in ...

(MAD). Many believed that it would be one all-or-nothing nuclear attack or retaliation that would determine the fate of the two superpowers. The idea was to expand on this thinking, more concurrent with the Soviet ideal that bringing

nuclear weapons A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either nuclear fission, fission (fission or atomic bomb) or a combination of fission and nuclear fusion, fusion reactions (thermonuclear weap ...

into a war, wouldn't be the end. The

U.S.S.R. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until it dissolved in 1991. During its existence, it was the largest country by are ...

had contingencies for a variety of scenarios, whereas the US really only had the one. The RSAC's objective was to improve the United States’ strategies in both nuclear and non-nuclear war. Each superpower was given an automated decision making model based on the best knowledge the US had at the time. The scientists also wanted to include a third Agent which would represent the non-superpower countries both militarily and politically. Previous simulations had been relatively shallow and had not taken into account how third parties could affect each scenario, whether it is the permission to use their airspace, or actual military forces. Now, the RSAC would be able to run “efficient, rigorous, and analytical” war gaming from beginning to end. This could be repeated at will, in a timely fashion, and with all data being recorded for reference later. Below are some of the RSAC objectives put forth in the paper by Paul K. Davis and James A. Winnefeld titled “An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options.” * To create an ''Integrated Framework'' – a means to analyze and discuss

military strategy Military strategy is a set of ideas implemented by military organizations to pursue desired Strategic goal (military), strategic goals. Derived from the Greek language, Greek word ''strategos'', the term strategy, when first used during the 18th ...

in all conflicts, including a prolonged

nuclear war Nuclear warfare, also known as atomic warfare, is a War, military conflict or prepared Policy, political strategy that deploys nuclear weaponry. Nuclear weapons are Weapon of mass destruction, weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conven ...

, anywhere in the world. * To develop the capability for ''Multiscenario Analysis'' – an increased capability would “…test sensitivities to key variables…” including superpower strategy, behavior patterns,

operational art In the field of military theory, the operational level of war (also called operational art, as derived from , or operational warfare) represents the level of command that connects the details of tactics with the goals of strategy. In U.S. J ...

, battle outcomes, and non-superpower countries involvement. * To increase ''Analysis Realism'' – including factors that are normally ignored. Examples include operational constraints, asymmetries in the US and Soviet objectives, attitudes and military styles, and third country decisions and/or actions. * Provide tools to improve understanding of ''Strategic Dynamics''- these include interrelationships, possible

cascade effect A cascade effect is an inevitable and sometimes unforeseen chain of events due to an act affecting a system. If there is a possibility that the cascade effect will have a negative impact on the system, it is possible to analyze the effects with a ...

s and decision points.

Program Forces

The Program Forces or Agents, are rule-based models used within the RSAC system. When designing these, a few necessary requirements needed to be met. The agents needed to be able to make operational and strategy decisions including, but not limited to, designing a war plan, deciding where to allocate forces, and whether or not to enter a battle depending on the risk vs. payoff. They also must be able to base their decisions on future projections of the conflict, not only the immediate future. For example, Blue Agent must first assess the current situation between itself and Red Agent, then consider the Scenario Agent's status, and then make a possible prediction of a future scenario involving all three. The Agents are also able to adjust and make course corrections based on conflict outcomes and the amount of intelligence available to them. Lastly, some ‘’soft factors’’ are injected into the mix. An Agent should also attempt to determine the will and intentions of the opponent, morale of the troops and country, and also the strength of current

alliances An alliance is a relationship among people, groups, or states that have joined together for mutual benefit or to achieve some common purpose, whether or not an explicit agreement has been worked out among them. Members of an alliance are calle ...

if applicable. Below are the Agents involved in the RSAC system. Red Agent – This is the opposing superpower force in the simulation. Usually this is the Soviet Union or countries united under the

Warsaw Pact The Warsaw Pact (WP), formally the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance (TFCMA), was a Collective security#Collective defense, collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Polish People's Republic, Poland, between the Sovi ...

. Blue Agent- This is the homeland superpower force in the simulation. Usually this is represented by the United States of America or the

NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO ; , OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental organization, intergovernmental Transnationalism, transnational military alliance of 32 Member states of NATO, member s ...

countries. Scenario Agent- This is the force that represents all other non-superpower nations. Force Agent- This force keeps track of other Agent forces on the global scale, and also simulates the outcome of battles and military operations. It also acts as a time keeper for the simulation. However omniscient they may sound, one of the most important features of these automatons is their ability to make mistakes and develop false models. Blue may decide that a military battle would be their best option, although it might have delayed or incomplete intelligence of Red. Another scenario might involve the two sides computing a battle victory using different standards. Red may decide to battle Blue, even if it knows they will not ‘’win’’ the battle. Its goal may just be to weaken Blue's forces enough to set them back a few weeks or months. So Blue would calculate a victory, but so would Red. The different victory calculations and the ability to make realistic mistakes just add to the

fidelity Fidelity is the quality of faithfulness or loyalty. Its original meaning regarded duty in a broader sense than the related concept of '' fealty''. Both derive from the Latin word , meaning "faithful or loyal". In the City of London financial m ...

of this simulation.

References

{{Reflist

External links

* https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R2945 * https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/2008/P7195.pdf Military simulation RAND Corporation