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Peak gas is the year in which the maximum global
natural gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon d ...
(fossil gas) production rate will be reached, after which the rate of production will enter its terminal decline. Although demand is peaking in the United States and Europe, it continues to rise globally due to consumers in Asia, especially China. Natural gas is a
fossil fuel A fossil fuel is a hydrocarbon-containing material formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the remains of dead plants and animals that is extracted and burned as a fuel. The main fossil fuels are coal, oil, and natural gas. Fossil fuels ma ...
formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. Natural gas derived from fossil fuels is a non-renewable energy source; however,
methane Methane ( , ) is a chemical compound with the chemical formula (one carbon atom bonded to four hydrogen atoms). It is a group-14 hydride, the simplest alkane, and the main constituent of natural gas. The relative abundance of methane ...
can be renewable in other forms such as
biogas Biogas is a mixture of gases, primarily consisting of methane, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide, produced from raw materials such as agricultural waste, manure, municipal waste, plant material, sewage, green waste and food waste. It is a ...
.
Peak coal Peak coal is the peak consumption or production of coal by a human community. Global coal consumption peaked in 2013, and had dropped slightly by the end of the 2010s. The peak of coal's share in the global energy mix was in 2008, when coal accou ...
was in 2013, and
peak oil Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; whil ...
is forecast to occur before peak gas. One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035. The concept of peak gas follows from
Hubbert peak theory The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak ...
, which is most commonly associated with
peak oil Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; whil ...
. Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world.


Gas demand

The world gets almost one quarter of its energy from natural gas. The largest increments in future gas demand are expected to come from developing countries.


Gas supply

Hubbert’s original peak theory predicts that natural gas will experience three equally spaced events: first, the rate of discoveries will peak, then X years later reserves will peak, and finally X years after peak reserves, gas production will peak at the same rate as the previous peak of discoveries. For the United States, for instance, Hubbert projected that the natural gas discovery rate was peaking in 1962 at about per year. From his curves, he predicted that proved reserves would peak eight years later, in 1970, and that production would peak after another eight years, in 1978, at per year, about equal to the rate of peak discoveries. Of the three peaks, Hubbert found the peak in discoveries most difficult to define, because of large year-to-year scatter, and the phenomenon of “reserve growth.” Initial estimates of a discovery are usually much lower than ultimate recovery, especially if the conservative estimate of
proven reserves Proven reserves (also called measured reserves, 1P, and reserves) is a measure of fossil fuel energy reserves, such as oil reserves, natural gas reserves, and coal reserves. It is defined as the " antity of energy sources estimated with reasona ...
is the measure. As the discovery is drilled out, estimates rise. Sometimes estimates of recoverable oil and gas in a discovery continue to rise for many years after the discovery. To find the peak in discoveries, Hubbert backdated reserve growth to the date of field discovery.


New gas discoveries

According to David L. Goodstein, the worldwide rate of discovery peaked around 1960 and has been declining ever since. Exxon Mobil Vice President, Harry J. Longwell places the peak of global gas discovery around 1970 and has observed a sharp decline in natural gas discovery rates since then. The rate of discovery has fallen below the rate of consumption in 1980. The gap has been widening ever since. Declining gas discovery rates foreshadow future production decline rates because gas production can only follow gas discoveries. Despite the reported fall in new-field discoveries, world proved reserves of natural gas have continued to grow, from 19 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 1960, 45 bcm in 1970 and 84 bcm in 1980, to a record high 200 bcm in 2012.OPEC
Annual statistical bulletin 2013
.
A researcher for the US
Energy Information Administration The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and publ ...
pointed out that after the first wave of discoveries in an area, most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields. Dr.
Anthony Hayward Anthony Hayward (born 26 October 1959) is a British journalist and author. He is a regular contributor to ''The Guardian'', ''The Daily Telegraph'' and ''The Independent'', and has written more than 20 books about television and film. The subje ...
CCMI, chief executive of BP stated in October 2009 that proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years' supply if consumption is non-increasing, and that gas reserves are trending upward. A similar situation exists with oil reserves in that they have increased despite the actual declines of worldwide discoveries for decades and despite increases in consumption. BP’s former Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert stated in 2007 that the growth in oil reserves "results largely from distortions created by the..reporting rules of the US Securities and Exchange Commission" that force companies to be overly conservative in their calculation of reserves, but that "even this illusory growth is unlikely to last," because fewer oil reserves are coming under the control of SEC-regulated companies. However, since Gilbert's statement, proven reserves of both oil and gas have continued to rise, proven oil reserves increasing 23%, from 1.20 trillion barrels in 2007, to 1.48 trillion barrels in 2012.


Production


Reserves


By country


Italy

Italy's gas consumption is presently third-highest in Europe, behind only Germany and the United Kingdom. Gas consumption is growing at a steady rate, and gas consumption in 2001 was 50% greater than it was in 1990. Italy’s major oil and gas company is
Eni Eni S.p.A. () is an Italian multinational energy company headquartered in Rome. Considered one of the seven "supermajor" oil companies in the world, it has operations in 69 countries with a market capitalization of US$54.08 billion, as of 11 Ap ...
. Formerly state-owned, it was privatized during the 1990s, but the government still retains around one-third of the shares. Natural gas reserves in Italy were 164 billion m3 at the beginning of 2007. Natural gas production in 2005 was 11.5 billion m3, while consumption was 82.6 billion m3. The difference was imported. The primary sources of imported gas are Algeria, Russia and the Netherlands.


Netherlands

The Netherlands government has stated that peak gas occurred in 2007–2008 and the country will have become a net importer of natural gas by 2025.


Romania

Natural gas in Romania was discovered in 1909 in the Sărmăşel area. In 1917,
Turda Turda (; hu, Torda, ; german: link=no, Thorenburg; la, Potaissa) is a city in Cluj County, Transylvania, Romania. It is located in the southeastern part of the county, from the county seat, Cluj-Napoca, to which it is connected by the Europ ...
became the first European town lit up with natural gas. Maximum production of 29.8 billion m3 was achieved in 1976. Today, gas provides about 40% of the country's energy needs.


Russia

Gazprom PJSC Gazprom ( rus, Газпром, , ɡɐzˈprom) is a Russian majority state-owned multinational energy corporation headquartered in the Lakhta Center in Saint Petersburg. As of 2019, with sales over $120 billion, it was ranked as the large ...
, Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly, is a firm which holds 25% of the world's gas reserves. Gazprom produces the bulk of Russia's gas.


United Kingdom

UK gets its natural gas almost entirely from the North Sea. The North Sea gas field peaked in 2000 and has been falling quickly since. Production in 2004 was 12% down from the peak.


United States


Steidle, 1952

In 1952, Dr. Edward Steidle, Dean of the School of Mineral Industries at Pennsylvania State College, predicted that gas production would soon decline significantly from 1952 rates, so that gas would cease to be a significant energy source by 2002, and possibly as early as 1975.


M. King Hubbert

In 1956, Hubbert used an estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of (an amount postulated by geologist
Wallace Pratt Wallace Everette Pratt (1885–1981) was a pioneer American petroleum geologist. He is also notable for helping establish Guadalupe Mountains National Park through his donation of McKittrick Canyon. Biography Born in Phillipsburg, Kansas, Mar ...
) to predict a US production peak of about per year to occur "approximately 1970". Pratt, in his EUR estimate (p. 96), explicitly included what he called the "phenomenal discovery rate" that the industry was then experiencing in the offshore Gulf of Mexico. In 1962, Hubbert pushed his predicted peak back a few years based on a more optimistic estimation of 1,000 trillion cubic feet of total original reserves. His new peak gas curve predicted a peak in 1978 at slightly more than 20 tcf per year. US gas production reached a peak in 1973 at about , and declined overall for the next decade. But even greater new discoveries in the offshore
Gulf of Mexico The Gulf of Mexico ( es, Golfo de México) is an ocean basin and a marginal sea of the Atlantic Ocean, largely surrounded by the North American continent. It is bounded on the northeast, north and northwest by the Gulf Coast of the United ...
than anticipated, and development of "unconventional reserves", proved Pratt's EUR estimate to be too low as US gas production rose again. In 1971, Hubbert revised his peak gas estimate based on updated reserve information. He revised his estimated ultimate recovery upward to for the lower 48 states only, and predicted: "For natural gas, the peak of production will probably be reached between 1975 and 1980." Gas production for the lower 48 states did peak in 1979, and declined for several years, but rose again, and once more Hubbert's assumed EUR of proved to be too low, as actual lower 48 state production from 1936 through 2012 has already exceeded , 18% higher than the estimated EUR of 1,075.


Recent US peak predictions

Economist Doug Reynolds predicted in 2005 that the North American gas peak would occur in 2007 Reynolds revised his forecast in 2009 to include Southern Canada; he predicted that the combined US Lower 48-Southern Canadian gas production would peak in 2013. Although Hubbert had acknowledged multiple peaks in oil production in Illinois, he used single peak models for oil and gas production in the US as a whole. In 2008,
Tad Patzek Tad or TAD may refer to: Places * Tad, West Virginia, an unincorporated community * Tad City, Texas, a coastal unincorporated community located on Olsovsky Road (Suburb of Ganado) * Tad, Isfahan, a village in Isfahan Province, Iran * Tad, Mark ...
of the University of California rejected the single-peak model, and showed the multiple peaks of past US gas production as the sum of five different Hubbert curves. He concluded that new technology has more than doubled gas reserves. His figure 15 shows gas production declining steeply after a probable peak in known cycles in 2008. However, he refrained from predicting a date after which gas production would begin terminal decline, but noted: "The actual future of US natural gas production will be the sum of known Hubbert cycles, shown in this paper, and future Hubbert cycles." and warned: "The current drilling effort in the US cannot be sustained without major new advances to increase the productivity of tight formations." In 2005 Exxon's CEO Lee Raymond said to Reuters that "Gas production has peaked in North America." The Reuters article continues to say "While the number of U.S. rigs drilling for natural gas has climbed about 20 percent over the last year and prices are at record highs, producers have been struggling to raise output." North American natural gas production indeed peaked in 2001 at per year, and declined to by 2005, but then rose again in 2006 and 2007 to a new high of in 2007 This would make the 2007 figure 1.45% higher than the 2001 figure, for an average annual increase of 0.24% per year during 2001–2007. In December 2009 the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected US marketed gas production will have reached a first peak at in 2009, decline to in 2013, then rise again to in 2035, the final year of their projection, for an average annual rate of increase of 0.47% per year during 2009–2035 In its ''Annual Energy Outlook 2010'' released in May 2010, EIA projected growth from in 2008 (same amount as 2009) to in 2035 in the Reference case, with Alternative case estimates ranging 17.4 to in 2035. These represent productions of average annual growth rates between −0.63% (net decline) and 0.85% in the alternate cases, and 0.46% in the reference case.Annual Energy Outlook 2010


North American natural gas crisis, 2000–2008

The
natural gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon d ...
crisis is typically described by upward price spikes of natural gas in North America from 2000 to 2008, due to the decline in production and the increase in
demand In economics, demand is the quantity of a good that consumers are willing and able to purchase at various prices during a given time. The relationship between price and quantity demand is also called the demand curve. Demand for a specific item ...
for
electricity Electricity is the set of physical phenomena associated with the presence and motion of matter that has a property of electric charge. Electricity is related to magnetism, both being part of the phenomenon of electromagnetism, as describe ...
generation. Gas production in the U.S. fell from in 2001 to in 2005, before rising again in 2006 and 2007. The anticipated gas shortage in North America led some, such as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, to advocate increased imports of
liquefied natural gas Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas (predominantly methane, CH4, with some mixture of ethane, C2H6) that has been cooled down to liquid form for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transport. It takes up about 1/600th the vol ...
(LNG). However, record high natural gas production rates and proved reserves in the US have put LNG imports on hold, and even spawned projects for LNG exports from North America. As of April 2015, ten LNG export terminals had been approved and six are under construction in the US and Canada.


Estimates of total reserve base

The Potential Gas Committee, a non-profit group at the
Colorado School of Mines The Colorado School of Mines, informally called Mines, is a public research university in Golden, Colorado, founded in 1874. The school offers both undergraduate and graduate degrees in engineering, science, and mathematics, with a focus on en ...
, estimated US natural gas resources to be in 2007 (86 times current annual consumption) and in 2009 raised their estimate again to (almost 100 times current annual consumption). The large increase over previous years' estimates was attributed to a surge in natural gas drilling and exploration spurred by a rise in prices and new technology allowing production from once uneconomic formations, such as
shale Shale is a fine-grained, clastic sedimentary rock formed from mud that is a mix of flakes of clay minerals (hydrous aluminium phyllosilicates, e.g. kaolin, Al2 Si2 O5( OH)4) and tiny fragments (silt-sized particles) of other minerals, especiall ...
and
coal seam Coal mining is the process of extracting coal from the ground. Coal is valued for its energy content and since the 1880s has been widely used to generate electricity. Steel and cement industries use coal as a fuel for extraction of iron fro ...
s.


World peak gas

In 2002, R.W. Bentley (p. 189) predicted a global "decline in conventional gas production from about 2020." One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035. In their March 2013 report, "Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – The Supply Outlook", the Energy Watch Group predicted that global natural gas production "will peak around or even before the year 2020". However, the same report (page 75) postulated that US natural gas production had peaked in 2012, and predicted that it would decline steeply after 2015. Instead, US gas production has continued to rise through 2017.US Energy Information Administration
Natural gas gross withdrawals and production
accessed 2 August 2018.


See also

*
2004 Argentine energy crisis The Argentine energy crisis was a natural gas supply shortage experienced by Argentina in 2004. After the recession triggered by the Argentine economic crisis (1999-2002), Argentina's energy demands grew quickly as industry recovered, but extracti ...
– an example of the effects of a gas shortage *
Hubbert peak theory The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak ...
*
Methane Methane ( , ) is a chemical compound with the chemical formula (one carbon atom bonded to four hydrogen atoms). It is a group-14 hydride, the simplest alkane, and the main constituent of natural gas. The relative abundance of methane ...
, the principal constituent of
natural gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon d ...
.


Resource peaks

*
Peak coal Peak coal is the peak consumption or production of coal by a human community. Global coal consumption peaked in 2013, and had dropped slightly by the end of the 2010s. The peak of coal's share in the global energy mix was in 2008, when coal accou ...
*
Peak copper Peak copper is the point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future new production from mining will diminish, and at some earlier time production will rea ...
* Peak food *
Peak oil Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; whil ...
*
Peak soil Sustainable agriculture is farming in sustainable ways meeting society's present food and textile needs, without compromising the ability for current or future generations to meet their needs. It can be based on an understanding of ecosystem ser ...
*
Peak uranium Uranium mining is the process of extraction of uranium ore from the ground. Over 50 thousand tons of uranium were produced in 2019. Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia were the top three uranium producers, respectively, and together account f ...
*
Peak water Peak water is a concept that underlines the growing constraints on the availability, quality, and use of freshwater resources. Peak water was defined in a 2010 peer-reviewed article in the ''Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences'' by ...
*
Peak wheat Peak wheat is the concept that agricultural production, due to its high use of water and energy inputs, is subject to the same profile as oil and other fossil fuel production. The central tenet is that a point is reached, the "peak", beyond which ...


References


External links

* {{cite web , url=http://mazamascience.com/OilExport , title=Energy Export Databrowser , publisher=Mazama Science , access-date=25 March 2010 Energy and the environment Natural gas gas