Paul Krugman
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Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American
New Keynesian New Keynesian economics is a school of macroeconomics that strives to provide microeconomic foundations for Keynesian economics. It developed partly as a response to criticisms of Keynesian macroeconomics by adherents of new classical macroe ...
economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...
who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He was a
columnist A columnist is a person who writes for publication in a series, creating an article that usually offers commentary and opinions. Column (periodical), Columns appear in newspapers, magazines and other publications, including blogs. They take the ...
for ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
'' from 2000 to 2024. In 2008, Krugman was the sole winner of the
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (), commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics(), is an award in the field of economic sciences adminis ...
for his contributions to new trade theory and new economic geography. The Prize Committee cited Krugman's work explaining the patterns of
international trade International trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories because there is a need or want of goods or services. (See: World economy.) In most countries, such trade represents a significan ...
and the geographic distribution of economic activity, by examining the effects of
economies of scale In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to their scale of operation, and are typically measured by the amount of Productivity, output produced per unit of cost (production cost). A decrease in ...
and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services. Krugman was previously a professor of economics at
MIT The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a private research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Established in 1861, MIT has played a significant role in the development of many areas of modern technology and sc ...
, and, later, at
Princeton University Princeton University is a private university, private Ivy League research university in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the List of Colonial ...
which he retired from in June 2015, holding the title of
professor emeritus ''Emeritus/Emerita'' () is an honorary title granted to someone who retirement, retires from a position of distinction, most commonly an academic faculty position, but is allowed to continue using the previous title, as in "professor emeritus". ...
there ever since. He also holds the title of Centennial Professor at the
London School of Economics The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), established in 1895, is a public research university in London, England, and a member institution of the University of London. The school specialises in the social sciences. Founded ...
. Krugman was President of the Eastern Economic Association in 2010, and is among the most influential economists in the world. He is known in academia for his work on
international economics International economics is concerned with the effects upon economic activity from international differences in productive resources and consumer preferences and the international institutions that affect them. It seeks to explain the patterns an ...
(including trade theory and international finance),''Forbes'', October 13, 2008
"Paul Krugman, Nobel"
economic geography,
liquidity trap A liquidity trap is a situation, described in Keynesian economics, in which, "after the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers holding cash rathe ...
s, and currency crises. Krugman is the author or editor of 27 books, including scholarly works, textbooks, and books for a more general audience, and has published over 200 scholarly articles in professional journals and edited volumes. He has also written several hundred columns on economic and political issues for ''The New York Times'', ''
Fortune Fortune may refer to: General * Fortuna or Fortune, the Roman goddess of luck * Luck * Wealth * Fate * Fortune, a prediction made in fortune-telling * Fortune, in a fortune cookie Arts and entertainment Film and television * ''The Fortune'' (19 ...
'' and ''
Slate Slate is a fine-grained, foliated, homogeneous, metamorphic rock derived from an original shale-type sedimentary rock composed of clay or volcanic ash through low-grade, regional metamorphism. It is the finest-grained foliated metamorphic ro ...
''. A 2011 survey of economics professors named him their favorite living economist under the age of 60. According to the Open Syllabus Project, Krugman is the second most frequently cited author on college syllabi for economics courses. As a commentator, Krugman has written on a wide range of economic issues including
income distribution In economics, income distribution covers how a country's total GDP is distributed amongst its population. Economic theory and economic policy have long seen income and its distribution as a central concern. Unequal distribution of income causes e ...
,
taxation A tax is a mandatory financial charge or levy imposed on an individual or legal person, legal entity by a governmental organization to support government spending and public expenditures collectively or to Pigouvian tax, regulate and reduce nega ...
,
macroeconomics Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes regional, national, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output (econ ...
, and international economics. Krugman considers himself a modern liberal, referring to his books, his blog on ''The New York Times'', and his 2007 book '' The Conscience of a Liberal''. His popular commentary has attracted widespread praise and criticism. On December 6, 2024, ''New York Times'' opinion editor Kathleen Kingsbury announced that Krugman was retiring as a ''Times'' columnist; His final column was published on December 9. Afterwards, Krugman began publishing a daily newsletter on Substack. Krugman wrote there that he left the ''Times'' because his editors began to discourage him from writing columns that might "get some people (particularly on the right) riled up."


Early life and education

Krugman was born to a Ukrainian
Jewish Jews (, , ), or the Jewish people, are an ethnoreligious group and nation, originating from the Israelites of History of ancient Israel and Judah, ancient Israel and Judah. They also traditionally adhere to Judaism. Jewish ethnicity, rel ...
family, the son of Anita and David Krugman. In 1914, his maternal grandparents immigrated to the United States from
Ukraine Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the List of European countries by area, second-largest country in Europe after Russia, which Russia–Ukraine border, borders it to the east and northeast. Ukraine also borders Belarus to the nor ...
, while in 1920, his paternal grandparents arrived from
Belarus Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus spans an a ...
. He was born in Albany, New York, spent several years of his childhood in the upstate city of Utica, before growing up from age eight in Merrick, a hamlet in Nassau County,
Long Island Long Island is a densely populated continental island in southeastern New York (state), New York state, extending into the Atlantic Ocean. It constitutes a significant share of the New York metropolitan area in both population and land are ...
. He graduated from John F. Kennedy High School in Bellmore. According to Krugman, his interest in economics began with
Isaac Asimov Isaac Asimov ( ;  – April 6, 1992) was an Russian-born American writer and professor of biochemistry at Boston University. During his lifetime, Asimov was considered one of the "Big Three" science fiction writers, along with Robert A. H ...
's ''Foundation'' novels, in which the social scientists of the future use a new science of " psychohistory" to try to save civilization. Since present-day science fell far short of "psychohistory", Krugman turned to economics as the next best thing. In 1974, Krugman earned his BA''
summa cum laude Latin honors are a system of Latin phrases used in some colleges and universities to indicate the level of distinction with which an academic degree has been earned. The system is primarily used in the United States. It is also used in some Sout ...
'' in economics from
Yale University Yale University is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in New Haven, Connecticut, United States. Founded in 1701, Yale is the List of Colonial Colleges, third-oldest institution of higher education in the United Stat ...
, where he was a National Merit Scholar. He then went on to pursue a
PhD A Doctor of Philosophy (PhD, DPhil; or ) is a terminal degree that usually denotes the highest level of academic achievement in a given discipline and is awarded following a course of graduate study and original research. The name of the deg ...
in economics from
Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a Private university, private research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Established in 1861, MIT has played a significant role in the development of many areas of moder ...
(MIT). In 1977, he successfully completed his PhD in three years, with a thesis titled ''Essays on flexible exchange rates.'' While at MIT, he was part of a small group of MIT students sent to work for the Central Bank of Portugal for three months in the summer of 1976, during the chaotic aftermath of the
Carnation Revolution The Carnation Revolution (), code-named Operation Historic Turn (), also known as the 25 April (), was a military coup by military officers that overthrew the Estado Novo government on 25 April 1974 in Portugal. The coup produced major socia ...
. Krugman later praised his PhD thesis advisor, Rudi Dornbusch, as "one of the great economics teachers of all time" and said that he "had the knack of inspiring students to pick up his enthusiasm and technique, but find their own paths". In 1978, Krugman presented a number of ideas to Dornbusch, who flagged as interesting the idea of a monopolistically competitive trade model. Encouraged, Krugman worked on it and later wrote, " knew within a few hours that I had the key to my whole career in hand". In that same year, Krugman wrote " The Theory of Interstellar Trade", a tongue-in-cheek essay on computing interest rates on goods in transit near the speed of light. He says he wrote it to cheer himself up when he was "an oppressed assistant professor".


Academic career

Krugman became an assistant professor at Yale University in September 1977. He joined the faculty at MIT in 1979. From 1982 to 1983, Krugman spent a year working at the Reagan
White House The White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest (Washington, D.C.), NW in Washington, D.C., it has served as the residence of every U.S. president ...
as a staff member of the
Council of Economic Advisers The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is a United States agency within the Executive Office of the President established in 1946, which advises the president of the United States on economic policy. The CEA provides much of the empirical resea ...
. He rejoined MIT as a full professor in 1984. Krugman has also taught at Stanford and the
London School of Economics The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), established in 1895, is a public research university in London, England, and a member institution of the University of London. The school specialises in the social sciences. Founded ...
. In 2000, Krugman joined
Princeton University Princeton University is a private university, private Ivy League research university in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the List of Colonial ...
as Professor of Economics and International Affairs. He is also currently Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics, and a member of the
Group of Thirty The Group of Thirty, often abbreviated to G30, is an international body of financiers and academics which aims to deepen understanding of economic and financial issues and to examine consequences of decisions made in the public and private sec ...
international economic body. He has been a research associate at the
National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic co ...
since 1979. Krugman was President of the Eastern Economic Association in 2010. In February 2014, he announced that he would be retiring from Princeton in June 2015 and that he would be joining the faculty at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Paul Krugman has written extensively on international economics, including
international trade International trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories because there is a need or want of goods or services. (See: World economy.) In most countries, such trade represents a significan ...
,
economic geography Economic geography is the subfield of human geography that studies economic activity and factors affecting it. It can also be considered a subfield or method in economics. Economic geography takes a variety of approaches to many different topi ...
, and
international finance International finance (also referred to as international monetary economics or international macroeconomics) is the branch of monetary economics, monetary and macroeconomics, macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries. Internation ...
. The
Research Papers in Economics Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) is a collaborative effort of hundreds of volunteers in many countries to enhance the dissemination of research in economics. The heart of the project is a decentralized database of working papers, preprints, ...
project ranks him among the world's most influential economists. Krugman's ''International Economics: Theory and Policy'', co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld, is a standard undergraduate
textbook A textbook is a book containing a comprehensive compilation of content in a branch of study with the intention of explaining it. Textbooks are produced to meet the needs of educators, usually at educational institutions, but also of learners ( ...
on international economics. He is also co-author, with Robin Wells, of an undergraduate economics text which he says was strongly inspired by the first edition of
Paul Samuelson Paul Anthony Samuelson (May 15, 1915 – December 13, 2009) was an American economist who was the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. When awarding the prize in 1970, the Swedish Royal Academies stated that he "h ...
's classic textbook. Krugman also writes on economic topics for the general public, sometimes on international economic topics but also on
income distribution In economics, income distribution covers how a country's total GDP is distributed amongst its population. Economic theory and economic policy have long seen income and its distribution as a central concern. Unequal distribution of income causes e ...
and
public policy Public policy is an institutionalized proposal or a Group decision-making, decided set of elements like laws, regulations, guidelines, and actions to Problem solving, solve or address relevant and problematic social issues, guided by a conceptio ...
. The Nobel Prize Committee stated that Krugman's main contribution is his analysis of the effects of
economies of scale In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to their scale of operation, and are typically measured by the amount of Productivity, output produced per unit of cost (production cost). A decrease in ...
, combined with the assumption that consumers appreciate diversity, on international trade and on the location of economic activity.Nobel Prize Committee
"The Prize in Economic Sciences 2008"
The importance of spatial issues in economics has been enhanced by Krugman's ability to popularize this complicated theory with the help of easy-to-read books and state-of-the-art syntheses. "Krugman was beyond doubt the key player in 'placing geographical analysis squarely in the economic mainstream' ... and in conferring it the central role it now assumes."


New trade theory

Prior to Krugman's work, trade theory (see
David Ricardo David Ricardo (18 April 1772 – 11 September 1823) was a British political economist, politician, and member of Parliament. He is recognized as one of the most influential classical economists, alongside figures such as Thomas Malthus, Ada ...
and Heckscher–Ohlin model) emphasized trade based on the
comparative advantage Comparative advantage in an economic model is the advantage over others in producing a particular Goods (economics), good. A good can be produced at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior t ...
of countries with very different characteristics, such as a country with a high agricultural
productivity Productivity is the efficiency of production of goods or services expressed by some measure. Measurements of productivity are often expressed as a ratio of an aggregate output to a single input or an aggregate input used in a production proce ...
trading agricultural products for industrial products from a country with a high industrial productivity. However, in the 20th century, an ever-larger share of trade occurred between countries with similar characteristics, which is difficult to explain by comparative advantage. Krugman's explanation of trade between similar countries was proposed in a 1979 paper in the '' Journal of International Economics'', and involves two key assumptions: that consumers prefer a diverse choice of brands, and that production favors economies of scale. Consumers' preference for diversity explains the survival of different versions of cars like Volvo and BMW. However, because of economies of scale, it is not profitable to spread the production of
Volvo The Volvo Group (; legally Aktiebolaget Volvo, shortened to AB Volvo, stylized as VOLVO) is a Swedish multinational manufacturing corporation headquartered in Gothenburg. While its core activity is the production, distribution and sale of truck ...
s all over the world; instead, it is concentrated in a few factories and therefore in a few countries (or maybe just one). Krugman modeled a 'preference for diversity' by assuming a CES utility function like that in a 1977 paper by Avinash Dixit and
Joseph Stiglitz Joseph Eugene Stiglitz (; born February 9, 1943) is an American New Keynesian economist, a public policy analyst, political activist, and a professor at Columbia University. He is a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2 ...
. Many models of international trade now follow Krugman's lead, incorporating economies of scale in production and a preference for diversity in consumption. This way of modeling trade has come to be called New Trade Theory. Krugman's theory also took into account transportation costs, a key feature in producing the " home market effect", which would later feature in his work on the new economic geography. The home market effect "states that,
ceteris paribus ' (also spelled ') (Classical ) is a Latin phrase, meaning "other things equal"; some other English translations of the phrase are "all other things being equal", "other things held constant", "all else unchanged", and "all else being equal". ...
, the country with the larger demand for a good shall, at equilibrium, produce a more than proportionate share of that good and be a net exporter of it". The home market effect was an unexpected result, and Krugman initially questioned it, but ultimately concluded that the mathematics of the model were correct. When there are economies of scale in production, it is possible that countries may become ' locked into' disadvantageous patterns of trade. Krugman points out that although globalization has been positive on a whole, since the 1980s the process known as hyper-globalization has at least played a part in rising inequality. Nonetheless, trade remains beneficial in general, even between similar countries, because it permits firms to save on costs by producing at a larger, more efficient scale, and because it increases the range of brands available and sharpens the competition between firms. Krugman has usually been supportive of
free trade Free trade is a trade policy that does not restrict imports or exports. In government, free trade is predominantly advocated by political parties that hold Economic liberalism, economically liberal positions, while economic nationalist politica ...
and
globalization Globalization is the process of increasing interdependence and integration among the economies, markets, societies, and cultures of different countries worldwide. This is made possible by the reduction of barriers to international trade, th ...
. He has also been critical of
industrial policy Industrial policy is proactive government-led encouragement and development of specific strategic industries for the growth of all or part of the economy, especially in absence of sufficient private sector investments and participation. Historica ...
, which New Trade Theory suggests might offer nations
rent-seeking Rent-seeking is the act of growing one's existing wealth by manipulating the social or political environment without creating new wealth. Rent-seeking activities have negative effects on the rest of society. They result in reduced economic effi ...
advantages if "strategic industries" can be identified, saying it's not clear that such identification can be done accurately enough to matter.


New economic geography

It took an interval of eleven years, but ultimately Krugman's work on New Trade Theory (NTT) converged to what is usually called the " new economic geography" (NEG), which Krugman began to develop in a seminal 1991 paper, "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography", published in the ''
Journal of Political Economy The ''Journal of Political Economy'' is a monthly peer-reviewed academic journal published by the University of Chicago Press. Established by James Laurence Laughlin in 1892, it covers both theoretical and empirical economics. In the past, the ...
''. In Krugman's own words, the passage from NTT to NEG was "obvious in retrospect; but it certainly took me a while to see it. ... The only good news was that nobody else picked up that $100 bill lying on the sidewalk in the interim."Krugman (1999
"Was it all in Ohlin?"
This would become Krugman's most-cited academic paper: by early 2009, it had 857 citations, more than double his second-ranked paper. Krugman called the paper "the love of my life in academic work".Krugman PR (2008)

, December 6, 2008. Stockholm, Sweden.
The "home market effect" that Krugman discovered in NTT also features in NEG, which interprets
agglomeration Agglomeration may refer to: * Urban agglomeration, in standard English * Megalopolis, in Chinese English, as defined in China's ''Standard for basic terminology of urban planning'' (GB/T 50280—98). Also known as "city cluster". * Economies of agg ...
"as the outcome of the interaction of increasing returns, trade costs and factor price differences". If trade is largely shaped by
economies of scale In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to their scale of operation, and are typically measured by the amount of Productivity, output produced per unit of cost (production cost). A decrease in ...
, as Krugman's trade theory argues, then those economic regions with most production will be more profitable and will therefore attract even more production. That is, NTT implies that instead of spreading out evenly around the world, production will tend to concentrate in a few countries, regions, or cities, which will become densely populated but will also have higher levels of income.


Agglomeration and economies of scale

Manufacturing is characterized by increasing returns to scale and less restrictive and expansive land qualifications as compared to agricultural uses. So, geographically where can manufacturing be predicted to develop? Krugman states that manufacturing's geographical range is inherently limited by economies of scale, but also that manufacturing will establish and accrue itself in an area of high demand. Production that occurs adjacent to demand will result in lower transportation costs, but demand, as a result, will be greater due to concentrated nearby production. These forces act upon one another simultaneously, producing manufacturing and population agglomeration. Population will increase in these areas due to the more highly developed infrastructure and nearby production, therefore lowering the expense of goods, while economies of scale provide varied choices of goods and services. These forces will feed into each other until the greater portion of the urban population and manufacturing hubs are concentrated into a relatively insular geographic area.


International finance

Krugman has also been influential in the field of
international finance International finance (also referred to as international monetary economics or international macroeconomics) is the branch of monetary economics, monetary and macroeconomics, macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries. Internation ...
. As a graduate student, Krugman visited the Federal Reserve Board where Stephen Salant and Dale Henderson were completing their discussion paper on speculative attacks in the gold market. Krugman adapted their model for the
foreign exchange market The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. By trading volume, ...
, resulting in a 1979 paper on currency crises in the '' Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking'', which showed that misaligned
fixed exchange rate A fixed exchange rate, often called a pegged exchange rate, is a type of exchange rate regime in which a currency's value is fixed or pegged by a monetary authority against the value of another currency, a currency basket, basket of other currenc ...
regimes are unlikely to end smoothly but instead end in a sudden
speculative attack In economics, a speculative attack is a precipitous selling of untrustworthy assets by previously inactive speculators and the corresponding acquisition of some valuable assets ( currencies, gold). The first model of a speculative attack was conta ...
. Krugman's paper is considered one of the main contributions to the 'first generation' of currency crisis models, and it is his second-most-cited paper (457 citations as of early 2009). In response to the
2008 financial crisis The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a major worldwide financial crisis centered in the United States. The causes of the 2008 crisis included excessive speculation on housing values by both homeowners ...
, Krugman proposed, in an informal "mimeo" style of publication, an "international finance multiplier", to help explain the unexpected speed with which the global crisis had occurred. He argued that when, "highly leveraged financial institutions
LIs LIS or LiS may refer to: Computing * LIS (programming language) * Lis (linear algebra library), library of iterative solvers for linear systems * Laboratory information system, databases oriented towards medical laboratories * Land information sys ...
which do a lot of cross-border investment ... lose heavily in one market ... they find themselves undercapitalized, and have to sell off assets across the board. This drives down prices, putting pressure on the balance sheets of other HLIs, and so on." Such a rapid contagion had hitherto been considered unlikely because of "decoupling" in a globalized economy. He first announced that he was working on such a model on his blog, on October 5, 2008. Within days of its appearance, it was being discussed on some popular economics-oriented blogs. The note was soon being cited in papers (draft and published) by other economists, even though it had not itself been through ordinary peer review processes.


Macroeconomics and fiscal policy

Krugman has done much to revive discussion of the
liquidity trap A liquidity trap is a situation, described in Keynesian economics, in which, "after the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers holding cash rathe ...
as a topic in economics. He recommended pursuing aggressive fiscal policy and unconventional monetary policy to counter Japan's lost decade in the 1990s, arguing that the country was mired in a Keynesian liquidity trap.Krugman, Paul (2000)
"Thinking About the Liquidity Trap"
, ''Journal of the Japanese and International Economies'', v.14, no.4, Dec 2000, pp. 221–37.
The debate he started at that time over liquidity traps and what policies best address them continues in the economics literature. Krugman had argued in ''The Return of Depression Economics'' that Japan was in a liquidity trap in the late 1990s, since the
central bank A central bank, reserve bank, national bank, or monetary authority is an institution that manages the monetary policy of a country or monetary union. In contrast to a commercial bank, a central bank possesses a monopoly on increasing the mo ...
could not drop interest rates any lower to escape economic stagnation. The core of Krugman's policy proposal for addressing Japan's liquidity trap was
inflation targeting In macroeconomics, inflation targeting is a monetary policy where a central bank follows an explicit target for the inflation rate for the medium-term and announces this inflation target to the public. The assumption is that the best that moneta ...
, which, he argued "most nearly approaches the usual goal of modern stabilization policy, which is to provide adequate demand in a clean, unobtrusive way that does not distort the allocation of resources". The proposal appeared first in a web posting on his academic site."Japan's Trap", May 2008

Retrieved 08-22-2009
This mimeo-draft was soon cited, but was also misread by some as repeating his earlier advice that Japan's best hope was in "turning on the printing presses", as recommended by
Milton Friedman Milton Friedman (; July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006) was an American economist and statistician who received the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his research on consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and ...
, John Makin, and others. Krugman has since drawn parallels between Japan's 'lost decade' and the late 2000s recession, arguing that expansionary fiscal policy is necessary as the major industrialized economies are mired in a liquidity trap. In response to economists who point out that the
Japanese economy The economy of Japan is a highly developed mixed economy, often referred to as an East Asian model. According to the IMF forecast for 2025, it will be the fifth-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP as well as by purchasing power par ...
recovered despite not pursuing his policy prescriptions, Krugman maintains that it was an export-led boom that pulled Japan out of its economic slump in the late-90s, rather than reforms of the financial system. Krugman was one of the most prominent advocates of the
2008–2009 Keynesian resurgence The 2008 financial crisis was followed by a global resurgence of interest in Keynesian economics among prominent economists and policy makers. This included discussions and implementation of economic policies in accordance with the recommendations ...
, so much so that economics commentator Noah Smith referred to it as the "Krugman insurgency". His view that most peer-reviewed macroeconomic research since the mid-1960s is wrong, preferring simpler models developed in the 1930s, has been criticized by some modern economists, like John H. Cochrane. In June 2012, Krugman and
Richard Layard Peter Richard Grenville Layard, Baron Layard FBA (born 15 March 1934) is a British labour economist, co-director of the Community Wellbeing programme at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, and co-editor of t ...
launched ''A manifesto for economic sense'', where they call for greater use of fiscal stimulus policy to reduce unemployment and foster growth. The manifesto received over four thousand signatures within two days of its launch, and has attracted both positive and critical responses.


Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences

Krugman was awarded the
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (), commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics(), is an award in the field of economic sciences adminis ...
(informally the Nobel Prize in Economics), the sole recipient for 2008. This prize includes an award of about $1.4 million and was given to Krugman for his work associated with New Trade Theory and the New Economic Geography. In the words of the prize committee, "By having integrated economies of scale into explicit
general equilibrium In economics, general equilibrium theory attempts to explain the behavior of supply, demand, and prices in a whole economy with several or many interacting markets, by seeking to prove that the interaction of demand and supply will result in an ov ...
models, Paul Krugman has deepened our understanding of the determinants of trade and the location of economic activity."


Awards

* 1991,
American Economic Association The American Economic Association (AEA) is a learned society in the field of economics, with approximately 23,000 members. It publishes several peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Review, an ...
,
John Bates Clark Medal The John Bates Clark Medal is awarded by the American Economic Association to "that American economist under the age of forty who is adjudged to have made a significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge." The award is named after the ...
. Avinash Dixit, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, No. 2 (Spring, 1993), pp. 173–88
'' In Honor of Paul Krugman: Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal''
, Retrieved March 28, 2007.
Since it was awarded to only one person, once every two years (prior to 2009), ''The Economist'' has described the Clark Medal as 'slightly harder to get than a Nobel prize'. * 1992, Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences The American Academy of Arts and Sciences (The Academy) is one of the oldest learned societies in the United States. It was founded in 1780 during the American Revolution by John Adams, John Hancock, James Bowdoin, Andrew Oliver, and other ...
(AAAS). * 1995, Adam Smith Award of the National Association for Business Economics * 1998, Doctor ''honoris causa'' in Economics awarded by
Free University of Berlin The Free University of Berlin (, often abbreviated as FU Berlin or simply FU) is a public university, public research university in Berlin, Germany. It was founded in West Berlin in 1948 with American support during the early Cold War period a ...
Freie Universität Berlin in Germany * 2000, H.C. Recktenwald Prize in Economics, awarded by
University of Erlangen-Nuremberg A university () is an institution of tertiary education and research which awards academic degrees in several academic disciplines. ''University'' is derived from the Latin phrase , which roughly means "community of teachers and scholars". Univ ...
in Germany. * 2002, '' Editor and Publisher'', Columnist of the Year. Mother Jones:
Paul Krugman
.'', August 7, 2005. Retrieved March 28, 2007.
* 2004, Fundación Príncipe de Asturias (Spain),
Prince of Asturias Awards The Princess of Asturias Awards (, ), formerly the Prince of Asturias Awards from 1981 to 2014 (), are a series of annual prizes awarded in Spain by the Princess of Asturias Foundation (previously the Prince of Asturias Foundation) to individuals ...
in Social Sciences.''Paul Krugman''
, 2004. Retrieved March 28, 2007.
* 2004, Doctor of Humane Letters ''honoris causa'',
Haverford College Haverford College ( ) is a private university, private Liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Haverford, Pennsylvania, United States. It was founded as a men's college in 1833 by members of the Religious Society of Fr ...
* 2008,
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (), commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics(), is an award in the field of economic sciences adminis ...
for Krugman's contributions to New Trade Theory. He became the twelfth
John Bates Clark Medal The John Bates Clark Medal is awarded by the American Economic Association to "that American economist under the age of forty who is adjudged to have made a significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge." The award is named after the ...
winner to be awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize. * 2010, Howland Memorial Prize, awarded by Yale University * 2011, EPI Distinguished Economist Award. * 2011
Gerald Loeb Award The Gerald Loeb Awards, also referred to as the Gerald Loeb Awards for Distinguished Business and Financial Journalism, is a recognition of excellence in journalism, especially in the fields of business, finance and the economy. The award was e ...
for Commentary * 2012,
Doctor honoris causa An honorary degree is an academic degree for which a university (or other degree-awarding institution) has waived all of the usual requirements. It is also known by the Latin phrases ''honoris causa'' ("for the sake of the honour") or ''ad hono ...
from the Universidade de Lisboa, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa and Universidade Nova de Lisboa * 2013, Doctor of Laws, honoris causa conferred by the
University of Toronto The University of Toronto (UToronto or U of T) is a public university, public research university whose main campus is located on the grounds that surround Queen's Park (Toronto), Queen's Park in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It was founded by ...
, Toronto, Canada * 2014, recipient of the Literary and Historical Society (University College Dublin)'s James Joyce Award in recognition of his outstanding contribution to the economic sciences. * 2014, recipient of the Green Templeton College, Oxford's Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professorship of Business and Development, Trinity Term 2014, in recognition of his outstanding international reputation in scholarship and research in the field of Development Economics and Business. * 2016, Doctor of Letters, honoris causa conferred by the
University of Oxford The University of Oxford is a collegiate university, collegiate research university in Oxford, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world and the List of oldest un ...
, Oxford, UK A May 2011
Hamilton College Hamilton College is a Private college, private Liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Clinton, Oneida County, New York, Clinton, New York. It was established as the Hamilton-Oneida Academy in 1793 and received its c ...
analysis of 26 politicians, journalists, and media commentators who made predictions in major newspaper columns or television news shows from September 2007 to December 2008 found that Krugman was the most accurate. Only nine of the prognosticators predicted more accurately than chance, two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were no better or worse than a coin flip. Krugman was correct in 15 out of 17 predictions, compared to 9 out of 11 for the next most accurate media figure, Maureen Dowd. Krugman was elected to the
American Philosophical Society The American Philosophical Society (APS) is an American scholarly organization and learned society founded in 1743 in Philadelphia that promotes knowledge in the humanities and natural sciences through research, professional meetings, publicat ...
in 2011. ''
Foreign Policy Foreign policy, also known as external policy, is the set of strategies and actions a State (polity), state employs in its interactions with other states, unions, and international entities. It encompasses a wide range of objectives, includ ...
'' named Krugman one of its 2012 FP Top 100 Global Thinkers "for wielding his acid pen against austerity".


Author

In the 1990s, besides academic books and textbooks, Krugman increasingly began writing books for a general audience on issues he considered important for public policy. In ''The Age of Diminished Expectations'' (1990), he wrote in particular about the increasing US income inequality in the " New Economy" of the 1990s. He attributes the rise in income inequality in part to changes in technology, but principally to a change in political atmosphere which he attributes to Movement Conservatives. In September 2003, Krugman published a collection of his columns under the title '' The Great Unraveling'' about the Bush administration's economic and foreign policies and the US economy in the early 2000s. His columns argued that the large deficits during that time were generated by the Bush administration as a result of decreasing taxes on the rich, increasing public spending, and fighting the
Iraq War The Iraq War (), also referred to as the Second Gulf War, was a prolonged conflict in Iraq lasting from 2003 to 2011. It began with 2003 invasion of Iraq, the invasion by a Multi-National Force – Iraq, United States-led coalition, which ...
. Krugman wrote that these policies were unsustainable in the long run and would eventually generate a major economic crisis. The book was a best-seller.''
The Economist ''The Economist'' is a British newspaper published weekly in printed magazine format and daily on Electronic publishing, digital platforms. It publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. M ...
'', November 13, 2003
"Paul Krugman, one-handed economist"
Krugman, Paul, ''
Rolling Stone ''Rolling Stone'' is an American monthly magazine that focuses on music, politics, and popular culture. It was founded in San Francisco, California, in 1967 by Jann Wenner and the music critic Ralph J. Gleason. The magazine was first known fo ...
''. December 14, 2006
"The Great Wealth Transfer"
In 2007, Krugman published '' The Conscience of a Liberal'', whose title refers to
Barry Goldwater Barry Morris Goldwater (January 2, 1909 – May 29, 1998) was an American politician and major general in the United States Air Force, Air Force Reserve who served as a United States senator from 1953 to 1965 and 1969 to 1987, and was the Re ...
's '' Conscience of a Conservative''."Nobelpristagaren i ekonomi 2008: Paul Krugman"
, speech by Paul Krugman (Retrieved December 26, 2008) 00:43 "The title of The Conscience of a Liberal ... is a reference to a book published almost 50 years ago in the United States called The ''Conscience of a Conservative'' by Barry Goldwater. That book is often taken to be the origin, the start, of a movement that ended up dominating U.S. politics that reached its first pinnacle under
Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan (February 6, 1911 – June 5, 2004) was an American politician and actor who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He was a member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party a ...
and then reached its full control of the U.S. government for most of the last eight years."
It details the history of wealth and income gaps in the United States in the 20th century. The book describes how the gap between rich and poor declined greatly during the middle of the century, and then widened in the last two decades to levels higher even than in the 1920s. In ''Conscience'', Krugman argues that government policies played a much greater role than commonly thought both in reducing inequality in the 1930s through 1970s and in increasing it in the 1980s through the present, and criticizes the Bush administration for implementing policies that Krugman believes widened the gap between the rich and poor. Krugman also argued that Republicans owed their electoral successes to their ability to exploit the race issue to win political dominance of the South. Michael Tomasky, ''
The New York Review of Books ''The New York Review of Books'' (or ''NYREV'' or ''NYRB'') is a semi-monthly magazine with articles on literature, culture, economics, science and current affairs. Published in New York City, it is inspired by the idea that the discussion of ...
'', November 22, 2007
"The Partisan"
Krugman argues that
Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan (February 6, 1911 – June 5, 2004) was an American politician and actor who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He was a member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party a ...
had used the " Southern Strategy" to signal sympathy for racism without saying anything overtly racist, citing as an example Reagan's coining of the term "
welfare queen "Welfare queen" is a derogatory term used in the United States to describe individuals who are perceived to misuse or abuse the welfare system, often through fraudulent means, child endangerment, or manipulation. The media's coverage of welfar ...
". In his book, Krugman proposed a "new
New Deal The New Deal was a series of wide-reaching economic, social, and political reforms enacted by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the United States between 1933 and 1938, in response to the Great Depression in the United States, Great Depressi ...
", which included placing more emphasis on social and medical programs and less on national defense. In his review of ''Conscience of a Liberal'', the liberal journalist and author Michael Tomasky credited Krugman with a commitment "to accurate history even when some fudging might be in order for the sake of political expediency". In a review for ''The New York Times'',
Pulitzer Prize The Pulitzer Prizes () are 23 annual awards given by Columbia University in New York City for achievements in the United States in "journalism, arts and letters". They were established in 1917 by the will of Joseph Pulitzer, who had made his fo ...
-winning historian David M. Kennedy stated: "Krugman's chapter on the imperative need for health care reform is the best in this book, a rueful reminder of the kind of skilled and accessible economic analysis of which he is capable". In late 2008, Krugman published a substantial updating of an earlier work, entitled ''The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008''. In the book, he discusses the failure of the United States regulatory system to keep pace with a financial system increasingly out-of-control, and the causes of and possible ways to contain the greatest financial crisis since the 1930s. In 2012, Krugman published '' End This Depression Now!'', a book which argues that looking at the available historical economic data, fiscal cuts and austerity measures only deprive the economy of valuable funds that can circulate and further add to a poor economy – people cannot spend, and markets cannot thrive if there is not enough consumption and there cannot be sufficient consumption if there is large unemployment. He argues that while it is necessary to cut debt, it is the worst time to do so in an economy that has just suffered the most severe of financial shocks, and must be done instead when an economy is near full-employment when the private sector can withstand the burden of decreased government spending and austerity. Failure to stimulate the economy either by public or private sectors will only unnecessarily lengthen the current economic depression and make it worse.


Commentator

Martin Wolf Martin Harry Wolf (born 16 August 1946 in London) is a British journalist who focuses on economics. He is the chief economics commentator at the ''Financial Times''. He also writes a weekly column for the French newspaper ''Le Monde''. Earl ...
has written that Krugman is both the "most hated and most admired columnist in the US". Economist J. Peter Neary has noted that Krugman "has written on a wide range of topics, always combining one of the best prose styles in the profession with an ability to construct elegant, insightful and useful models". Neary added that "no discussion of his work could fail to mention his transition from Academic Superstar to Public Intellectual. Through his extensive writings, including a regular column for ''The New York Times'', monographs and textbooks at every level, and books on economics and current affairs for the general public ... he has probably done more than any other writer to explain economic principles to a wide audience." Krugman has been described as the most controversial economist in his generation and according to Michael Tomasky since 1992 he has moved "from being a center-left scholar to being a liberal polemicist". From the mid-1990s onwards, Krugman wrote for ''
Fortune Fortune may refer to: General * Fortuna or Fortune, the Roman goddess of luck * Luck * Wealth * Fate * Fortune, a prediction made in fortune-telling * Fortune, in a fortune cookie Arts and entertainment Film and television * ''The Fortune'' (19 ...
'' (1997–99)''Princeton Weekly Bulletin'', October 20, 2008
"Biography of Paul Krugman"
, 98(7)
and ''
Slate Slate is a fine-grained, foliated, homogeneous, metamorphic rock derived from an original shale-type sedimentary rock composed of clay or volcanic ash through low-grade, regional metamorphism. It is the finest-grained foliated metamorphic ro ...
'' (1996–99), and then for '' The Harvard Business Review'', ''
Foreign Policy Foreign policy, also known as external policy, is the set of strategies and actions a State (polity), state employs in its interactions with other states, unions, and international entities. It encompasses a wide range of objectives, includ ...
'', ''
The Economist ''The Economist'' is a British newspaper published weekly in printed magazine format and daily on Electronic publishing, digital platforms. It publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. M ...
'', ''
Harper's ''Harper's Magazine'' is a monthly magazine of literature, politics, culture, finance, and the arts. Launched in New York City in June 1850, it is the oldest continuously published monthly magazine in the United States. ''Harper's Magazine'' has ...
'', and ''
Washington Monthly ''Washington Monthly'' is a bimonthly, nonprofit magazine primarily covering United States politics and government that is based in Washington, D.C. The magazine also publishes an annual ranking of American colleges and universities, which ser ...
''. In this period Krugman critiqued various positions commonly taken on economic issues from across the political spectrum, from
protectionism Protectionism, sometimes referred to as trade protectionism, is the economic policy of restricting imports from other countries through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, import quotas, and a variety of other government regulations ...
and opposition to the
World Trade Organization The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an intergovernmental organization headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland that regulates and facilitates international trade. Governments use the organization to establish, revise, and enforce the rules that g ...
on the left to
supply-side economics Supply-side economics is a Macroeconomics, macroeconomic theory postulating that economic growth can be most effectively fostered by Tax cuts, lowering taxes, Deregulation, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade. According to supply- ...
on the right. During the 1992 presidential campaign, Krugman praised
Bill Clinton William Jefferson Clinton (né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician and lawyer who was the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, ...
's economic plan in ''The New York Times'', and Clinton's campaign used some of Krugman's work on
income inequality In economics, income distribution covers how a country's total GDP is distributed amongst its population. Economic theory and economic policy have long seen income and its distribution as a central concern. Unequal distribution of income causes ...
. At the time, it was considered likely that Clinton would offer him a position in the new administration, but allegedly Krugman's volatility and outspokenness caused Clinton to look elsewhere. Krugman later said that he was "temperamentally unsuited for that kind of role. You have to be very good at people skills, biting your tongue when people say silly things."''
New Statesman ''The New Statesman'' (known from 1931 to 1964 as the ''New Statesman and Nation'') is a British political and cultural news magazine published in London. Founded as a weekly review of politics and literature on 12 April 1913, it was at first c ...
'', February 16, 2004
"NS Profile – Paul Krugman"
In a Fresh Dialogues interview, Krugman added, "you have to be reasonably organized ... I can move into a pristine office and within three days it will look like a grenade went off." In 1999, near the height of the dot com boom, ''The New York Times'' approached Krugman to write a bi-weekly column on "the vagaries of business and economics in an age of prosperity". His first columns in 2000 addressed business and economic issues, but as the 2000 US presidential campaign progressed, Krugman increasingly focused on
George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician and businessman who was the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Bush family and the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he i ...
's policy proposals. According to Krugman, this was partly due to "the silence of the media – those 'liberal media' conservatives complain about ..." Krugman accused Bush of repeatedly misrepresenting his proposals, and criticized the proposals themselves. After Bush's election, and his perseverance with his proposed tax cut in the midst of the slump (which Krugman argued would do little to help the economy but substantially raise the fiscal deficit), Krugman's columns grew angrier and more focused on the administration. As Alan Blinder put it in 2002, "There's been a kind of
missionary A missionary is a member of a Religious denomination, religious group who is sent into an area in order to promote its faith or provide services to people, such as education, literacy, social justice, health care, and economic development.Thoma ...
quality to his writing since then ... He's trying to stop something now, using the power of the pen." Partly as a result, Krugman's twice-weekly column on the Op-Ed page of ''The New York Times'' has made him, according to Nicholas Confessore, "the most important political columnist in America ... he is almost alone in analyzing the most important story in politics in recent years – the seamless melding of corporate, class, and political party interests at which the Bush administration excels." In an interview in late 2009, Krugman said his missionary zeal had changed in the post-Bush era and he described the Obama administration as "good guys but not as forceful as I'd like ... When I argue with them in my column this is a serious discussion. We really are in effect speaking across the transom here." Krugman says he's more effective at driving change outside the administration than inside it, "now, I'm trying to make this progressive moment in American history a success. So that's where I'm pushing." Krugman's columns have drawn criticism as well as praise. A 2003 article in ''The Economist'' questioned Krugman's "growing tendency to attribute all the world's ills to George Bush", citing critics who felt that "his relentless partisanship is getting in the way of his argument" and claiming errors of economic and political reasoning in his columns. Daniel Okrent, a former ''The New York Times''
ombudsman An ombudsman ( , also ) is a government employee who investigates and tries to resolve complaints, usually through recommendations (binding or not) or mediation. They are usually appointed by the government or by parliament (often with a sign ...
, in his farewell column, criticized Krugman for what he said was "the disturbing habit of shaping, slicing and selectively citing numbers in a fashion that pleases his acolytes but leaves him open to substantive assaults". Krugman's ''New York Times'' blog was "The Conscience of a Liberal", devoted largely to economics and politics. Five days after 9/11 terrorist attacks, Krugman argued in his column that the calamity was "partly self-inflicted", citing poor pay and training for airport security driven by the transfer of responsibility for airport security from government to airlines. His column provoked an angry response and ''The New York Times'' was flooded with complaints. According to Larissa MacFarquhar of ''
The New Yorker ''The New Yorker'' is an American magazine featuring journalism, commentary, criticism, essays, fiction, satire, cartoons, and poetry. It was founded on February 21, 1925, by Harold Ross and his wife Jane Grant, a reporter for ''The New York T ...
'', while some people thought that he was too partisan to be a columnist for ''The New York Times'', he was revered on the left. Similarly, on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 on the United States Krugman again provoked a controversy by accusing on his ''New York Times'' blog former U.S. President George W. Bush and former New York City mayor
Rudy Giuliani Rudolph William Louis Giuliani ( , ; born May 28, 1944) is an American politician and Disbarment, disbarred lawyer who served as the 107th mayor of New York City from 1994 to 2001. He previously served as the United States Associate Attorney ...
of rushing "to cash in on the horror" after the attacks and describing the anniversary as "an occasion for shame". Krugman was noteworthy for his opposition to the 2016 presidential campaign of
Bernie Sanders Bernard Sanders (born September8, 1941) is an American politician and activist who is the Seniority in the United States Senate, senior United States Senate, United States senator from the state of Vermont. He is the longest-serving independ ...
. On January 19, 2016, he wrote an article which criticized Bernie Sanders for his perceived lack of political realism, compared Sanders' plans for healthcare and financial reform unfavorably to those of
Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...
, and cited criticisms of Sanders from other liberal policy wonks like Mike Konczal and
Ezra Klein Ezra Klein (born May 9, 1984) is an American American liberalism, liberal political commentator and journalist. He is currently a ''The New York Times, New York Times'' columnist and the host of ''The Ezra Klein Show'' podcast. He is a co-founde ...
. Later, Krugman wrote an article which accused Sanders of " oingfor easy slogans over hard thinking" and attacking Hillary Clinton in a way that was "just plain dishonest". On the 12 July 2016, Krugman tweeted "
leprechaun economics Leprechaun economics () was a term coined by economist Paul Krugman to describe the 26.3 per cent rise in Irish 2015 Gross domestic product, GDP, later revised to 34.4 per cent, in a 12 July 2016 publication by the Central Statistics Office ( ...
", in response to
Central Statistics Office (Ireland) The Central Statistics Office (CSO; ) is the statistical agency responsible for the gathering of "information relating to economic, social and general activities and conditions" in the Republic of Ireland (it does not operate in Northern Ireland), ...
data that 2015 GDP grew 26.3% and 2015 GNP grew 18.7%. The leprechaun economics affair (proved in 2018 to be Apple restructuring its
double Irish The Double Irish arrangement was a base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) corporate tax avoidance tool used mainly by United States multinationals since the late 1980s to avoid corporate taxation on non-U.S. profits. (The US was one of a sma ...
subsidiaries), led to the Central Bank of Ireland introducing a new economic statistic,
Modified gross national income Modified gross national income (also Modified GNI or GNI*) is a metric used by the Central Statistics Office (Ireland) to measure the Irish economy rather than Gross national income, GNI or GDP. GNI* is GNI minus the depreciation on Intellectual ...
(or GNI*) to better measure the Irish economy (2016 Irish GDP is 143% of 2016 Irish GNI*). The term leprechaun economics has since been used by Krugman, and others, to describe distorted/unsound economic data. Krugman's use of the term leprechaun to refer to Ireland and its people has raised rebuke. In June 2021, Krugman wrote an article titled, "Yellen's New Alliance Against Leprechauns". Following the article, the Irish Ambassador to the US, Daniel Mulhall, wrote a letter to his publisher saying, "This is not the first time your columnist has used the word 'leprechaun' when referring to Ireland, and I see it as my duty to point out that this represents an unacceptable slur." Krugman harshly criticized the
first Trump administration Donald Trump's first tenure as the president of the United States began on January 20, 2017, when Trump First inauguration of Donald Trump, was inaugurated as the List of presidents of the United States, 45th president, and ended on January ...
. He has also remarked several times on how Trump tempts him to assume the worst, such that he has to be careful to check his personal beliefs against the weight of evidence. In January 2025, speaking on his departure from ''The New York Times'' the previous month, Krugman said that he found the back-and-forth with his editor had become intrusive and tiresome. He cited "toning down isvoice" and "pressure for what I considered false equivalence" as complaints, as well as a desire to publish him less often by removing his newsletter. The ''
Columbia Journalism Review The ''Columbia Journalism Review'' (''CJR'') is a biannual magazine for professional journalists that has been published by the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism since 1961. Its original purpose was "to assess the performance ...
'' reported that he refused an offer to reduce his regular columns from twice to once a week in exchange for keeping his newsletter.


East Asian growth

In a 1994 ''
Foreign Affairs ''Foreign Affairs'' is an American magazine of international relations and foreign policy of the United States, U.S. foreign policy published by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonprofit organization, nonprofit, nonpartisan, membership or ...
'' article, Paul Krugman argued that it was a
myth Myth is a genre of folklore consisting primarily of narratives that play a fundamental role in a society. For scholars, this is very different from the vernacular usage of the term "myth" that refers to a belief that is not true. Instead, the ...
that the economic successes of the East Asian 'tigers' constituted an economic miracle. He argued that their rise was fueled by mobilizing resources and that their growth rates would inevitably slow. His article helped popularize the argument made by Lawrence Lau and Alwyn Young, among others, that the growth of economies in
East Asia East Asia is a geocultural region of Asia. It includes China, Japan, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan, plus two special administrative regions of China, Hong Kong and Macau. The economies of Economy of China, China, Economy of Ja ...
was not the result of new and original economic models, but rather from high
capital investment Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources into something expected to gain value over time". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broade ...
and increasing labor force participation, and that total factor productivity had not increased. Krugman argued that in the long term, only increasing
total factor productivity In economics, total-factor productivity (TFP), also called multi-factor productivity, is usually measured as the ratio of aggregate output (e.g., GDP) to aggregate inputs. Under some simplifying assumptions about the production technology, growt ...
can lead to sustained
economic growth In economics, economic growth is an increase in the quantity and quality of the economic goods and Service (economics), services that a society Production (economics), produces. It can be measured as the increase in the inflation-adjusted Outp ...
. Krugman's article was highly criticized in many Asian countries when it first appeared, and subsequent studies disputed some of Krugman's conclusions. However, it also stimulated a great deal of research, and may have caused the
Singapore Singapore, officially the Republic of Singapore, is an island country and city-state in Southeast Asia. The country's territory comprises one main island, 63 satellite islands and islets, and one outlying islet. It is about one degree ...
government to provide incentives for technological progress. During the
1997 Asian financial crisis The 1997 Asian financial crisis gripped much of East Asia, East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide eco ...
, Krugman advocated currency controls as a way to mitigate the crisis. Writing in a ''Fortune'' magazine article, he suggested exchange controls as "a solution so unfashionable, so stigmatized, that hardly anyone has dared suggest it".
Malaysia Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia. Featuring the Tanjung Piai, southernmost point of continental Eurasia, it is a federation, federal constitutional monarchy consisting of States and federal territories of Malaysia, 13 states and thre ...
was the only country that adopted such controls, and although the
Malaysian government The Government of Malaysia, officially the Federal Government of Malaysia (; Jawi: ), is based in the Federal Territory of Putrajaya, with the exception of the legislative branch, which is located in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia is a federation comp ...
credited its rapid economic recovery on currency controls, the relationship is disputed. An empirical study found that the Malaysian policies produced faster economic recovery and smaller declines in employment and real wages. Krugman later stated that the controls might not have been necessary at the time they were applied, but that nevertheless "Malaysia has proved a point – namely, that controlling capital in a crisis is at least feasible." Krugman more recently pointed out that emergency capital controls have even been endorsed by the IMF, and are no longer considered radical policy.


U.S. economic policies

In the early 2000s, Krugman repeatedly criticized the Bush tax cuts, both before and after they were enacted. Krugman argued that the tax cuts enlarged the budget deficit without improving the economy, and that they enriched the wealthy – worsening
income distribution In economics, income distribution covers how a country's total GDP is distributed amongst its population. Economic theory and economic policy have long seen income and its distribution as a central concern. Unequal distribution of income causes e ...
in the US. Krugman advocated lower interest rates (to promote investment and spending on housing and other durable goods), and increased government spending on infrastructure, military, and unemployment benefits, arguing that these policies would have a larger stimulus effect, and unlike permanent tax cuts, would only temporarily increase the budget deficit. In addition, he was against Bush's proposal to privatize social security. In August 2005, after
Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan (born March 6, 1926) is an American economist who served as the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006. He worked as a private adviser and provided consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates L ...
expressed concern over housing markets, Krugman criticized Greenspan's earlier reluctance to regulate the mortgage and related financial markets, arguing that " e'slike a man who suggests leaving the barn door ajar, and then – after the horse is gone – delivers a lecture on the importance of keeping your animals properly locked up." Krugman has repeatedly expressed his view that Greenspan and
Phil Gramm William Philip Gramm (born July 8, 1942) is an American economist and politician who represented Texas in both chambers of United States Congress, Congress. Though he began his political career as a Democratic Party (United States), Democrat, Gr ...
are the two individuals most responsible for causing the subprime crisis. Krugman points to Greenspan and Gramm for the key roles they played in keeping derivatives, financial markets, and
investment bank Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources into something expected to gain value over time". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broade ...
s unregulated, and to the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed
Great Depression The Great Depression was a severe global economic downturn from 1929 to 1939. The period was characterized by high rates of unemployment and poverty, drastic reductions in industrial production and international trade, and widespread bank and ...
era safeguards that prevented
commercial bank A commercial bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits from the public and gives loans for the purposes of consumption and investment to make a profit. It can also refer to a bank or a division of a larger bank that deals with whol ...
s, investment banks and
insurance Insurance is a means of protection from financial loss in which, in exchange for a fee, a party agrees to compensate another party in the event of a certain loss, damage, or injury. It is a form of risk management, primarily used to protect ...
companies from merging. Krugman also was critical of some of the
Obama administration Barack Obama's tenure as the 44th president of the United States began with his first inauguration on January 20, 2009, and ended on January 20, 2017. Obama, a Democrat from Illinois, took office following his victory over Republican nomine ...
's economic policies. He criticized the Obama stimulus plan as being too small and inadequate given the size of the economy and the banking rescue plan as misdirected; Krugman wrote in ''The New York Times'': "an overwhelming majority f the American publicbelieves that the government is spending too much to help large financial institutions. This suggests that the administration's money-for-nothing financial policy will eventually deplete its political capital." In particular, he considered the Obama administration's actions to prop up the US financial system in 2009 to be impractical and unduly favorable to Wall Street bankers. Evan Thomas, ''
Newsweek ''Newsweek'' is an American weekly news magazine based in New York City. Founded as a weekly print magazine in 1933, it was widely distributed during the 20th century and has had many notable editors-in-chief. It is currently co-owned by Dev P ...
'', April 6, 2009
"Obama's Nobel Headache"
In anticipation of President Obama's Job Summit in December 2009, Krugman said in a Fresh Dialogues interview, "This jobs summit can't be an empty exercise ... he can't come out with a proposal for $10 or $20 Billion of stuff because people will view that as a joke. There has to be a significant job proposal ... I have in mind something like $300 Billion." Krugman has criticized China's
exchange rate In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of ...
policy, which he believes to be a significant drag on global economic recovery from the
Late-2000s recession The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.
, and he has advocated a "surcharge" on Chinese imports to the US in response. Jeremy Warner of ''
The Daily Telegraph ''The Daily Telegraph'', known online and elsewhere as ''The Telegraph'', is a British daily broadsheet conservative newspaper published in London by Telegraph Media Group and distributed in the United Kingdom and internationally. It was found ...
'' accused Krugman of advocating a return to self-destructive
protectionism Protectionism, sometimes referred to as trade protectionism, is the economic policy of restricting imports from other countries through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, import quotas, and a variety of other government regulations ...
. In April 2010, as the Senate began considering new financial regulations, Krugman argued that the regulations should not only regulate financial innovation, but also tax financial industry profits and remuneration. He cited a paper by
Andrei Shleifer Andrei Shleifer ( ; born February 20, 1961) is a Russian-American economist and Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where he has taught since 1991. Shleifer was awarded the biennial John Bates Clark Medal in 1999 for his seminal works ...
and Robert Vishny released the previous week, which concludes that most innovation was in fact about "providing investors with false substitutes for raditionalassets like bank deposits", and once investors realize the sheer number of securities that are unsafe a "flight to safety" occurs which necessarily leads to "financial fragility". In his June 28, 2010, column in ''The New York Times'', in light of the recent G-20 Toronto Summit, Krugman criticized world leaders for agreeing to halve deficits by 2013. Krugman claimed that these efforts could lead the global economy into the early stages of a "third depression" and leave "millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs". He advocated instead the continued stimulus of economies to foster greater growth. In a 2014 review of Thomas Piketty's ''
Capital in the Twenty-First Century ''Capital in the Twenty-First Century'' () is a book written by French economist Thomas Piketty. It focuses on economic inequality, wealth and income inequality in Europe and the United States since the 18th century. It was first published in Fren ...
'' he stated we are in a Second
Gilded Age In History of the United States, United States history, the Gilded Age is the period from about the late 1870s to the late 1890s, which occurred between the Reconstruction era and the Progressive Era. It was named by 1920s historians after Mar ...
.


Economic views


Keynesian economics

Krugman identifies as a
Keynesian Keynesian economics ( ; sometimes Keynesianism, named after British economist John Maynard Keynes) are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) strongly influences economic output an ...
and a saltwater economist, and he has criticized the freshwater school on
macroeconomics Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes regional, national, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output (econ ...
. Krugman, Paul. (2009-9-2)
"How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?"
. ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
''. Retrieved October 9, 2009.
Although he has used
New Keynesian New Keynesian economics is a school of macroeconomics that strives to provide microeconomic foundations for Keynesian economics. It developed partly as a response to criticisms of Keynesian macroeconomics by adherents of new classical macroe ...
theory in his work, he has also criticized it for lacking predictive power and for hewing to ideas like the
efficient-market hypothesis The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis ...
and rational expectations. Since the 1990s, he has promoted the practical use of the IS-LM model of the
neoclassical synthesis The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), or neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis Mankiw, N. Gregory. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer". '' The Journal of Economic Perspectives''. Vol. 20, No. 4 (Fall, 2006), p. 35. is an academic movement a ...
, pointing out its relative simplicity compared to New Keynesian models, and its continued currency in economic policy analysis. During the
Great Recession The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.
, he remarked that he is "gravitating towards a Keynes- Fisher- Minsky view of macroeconomics". Post-Keynesian observers cite commonalities between Krugman's views and those of the Post-Keynesian school, although Krugman has been critical of some Post-Keynesian economists such as
John Kenneth Galbraith John Kenneth Galbraith (October 15, 1908 – April 29, 2006), also known as Ken Galbraith, was a Canadian-American economist, diplomat, public official, and intellectual. His books on economic topics were bestsellers from the 1950s through the ...
– whose works '' The New Industrial State'' (1967) and ''Economics in Perspective'' (1987) Krugman has referred to as not "real economic theory" and "remarkably ill-informed" respectively. In recent academic work, he has collaborated with Gauti Eggertsson on a New Keynesian model of debt-overhang and debt-driven slumps, inspired by the writings of
Irving Fisher Irving Fisher (February 27, 1867 – April 29, 1947) was an American economist, statistician, inventor, eugenicist and progressive social campaigner. He was one of the earliest American neoclassical economists, though his later work on debt de ...
, Hyman Minsky, and Richard Koo. Their work argues that during a debt-driven slump, the " paradox of toil", together with the paradox of flexibility, can exacerbate a
liquidity trap A liquidity trap is a situation, described in Keynesian economics, in which, "after the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers holding cash rathe ...
, reducing demand and employment.


Free trade

Krugman's support for
free trade Free trade is a trade policy that does not restrict imports or exports. In government, free trade is predominantly advocated by political parties that hold Economic liberalism, economically liberal positions, while economic nationalist politica ...
in the 1980s–1990s provoked some ire from the
anti-globalization movement The anti-globalization movement, or counter-globalization movement, is a social movement critical of economic globalization. The movement is also commonly referred to as the global justice movement, alter-globalization movement, anti-globalist m ...
. " rugman and Obstfeldseem to want to shame students into believing that there are no well-grounded arguments against coercing poor countries into free trade. ... This is poor logic, and pernicious insensitivity." In 1987 he quipped that, "If there were an Economist's Creed, it would surely contain the affirmations 'I understand the Principle of Comparative Advantage' and 'I advocate Free Trade'." However, Krugman argues in the same article that, given the findings of New Trade Theory, " ree tradehas shifted from optimum to reasonable rule of thumb ... it can never again be asserted as the policy that economic theory tells us is always right." In the article, Krugman comes out in favor of free trade given the enormous political costs of actively engaging in strategic trade policy and because there is no clear method for a government to discover which industries will ultimately yield positive returns. He also notes that increasing returns and strategic trade theory do not disprove the underlying truth of
comparative advantage Comparative advantage in an economic model is the advantage over others in producing a particular Goods (economics), good. A good can be produced at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior t ...
. In 1994, Krugman criticized the notion of national competitiveness, particularly comparisons of nations as competing corporations. Krugman noted that a country's economic success does not need to come at the expense of a rival nation, as if they were two competing companies selling similar products. Instead, foreign nations typically serve as export markets for a nation's goods, as well as suppliers of useful imports. In the midst of the 2009 Great Recession, Krugman made a significant departure from his general support for free trade, entertaining the idea of a 25% tariff on Chinese imports as a retaliation for China's policy of maintaining a low value for the
renminbi The renminbi ( ; currency symbol, symbol: Yen and yuan sign, ¥; ISO 4217, ISO code: CNY; abbreviation: RMB), also known as the Chinese yuan, is the official currency of the China, People's Republic of China. The renminbi is issued by the Peop ...
, which many saw as hostile currency manipulation, artificially making their exports more competitive. In 2015, Krugman noted his ambivalence about the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, as the agreement was not mainly about trade and, "whatever you may say about the benefits of free trade, most of those benefits have already been realized" y existing agreements After the 2016 elections, and Trump's moves towards protectionism, he wrote that while protectionism can make economies less efficient and reduce long-term growth, it would not directly cause recessions. He noted that if there is a trade war, imports would decrease as much as exports, so employment should not be strongly impacted, at least in the medium to long run. He believes that the US should not repeat Reagan's 1981 policy on taxes and quotas on imported products, as even if it does not produce a recession, protectionism would shock "value chains" and disrupt jobs and communities in the same way as free trade in the past. In addition, other countries would take retaliatory measures against US exports. Krugman recommended against the abandonment of NAFTA, because it could cause economic losses and disruptions to businesses, jobs, and communities. In the late 2010s, Krugman admitted that the models that scholars used to measure the impact of
globalization Globalization is the process of increasing interdependence and integration among the economies, markets, societies, and cultures of different countries worldwide. This is made possible by the reduction of barriers to international trade, th ...
in the 1990s underestimated the effect on jobs and inequality in developed countries such as the US. He noted that although free trade has harmed some industries, communities, and some workers, it remains a win-win system overall, enriching both parties to the agreement at the national level; a trade war is equivalently negative for the nations involved, even while it may benefit some individuals or industries within each nation.


Immigration

In 2006, Krugman wrote: " migration reduces the wages of domestic workers who compete with immigrants. That's just supply and demand: we're talking about large increases in the number of low-skill workers relative to other inputs into production, so it's inevitable that this means a fall in wages ... the fiscal burden of low-wage immigrants is also pretty clear," citing an estimate of 0.25% of GDP from the National Research Council. However, in 2024, he reported that "most labor economists now believe that immigrants don’t do much head-to-head competition with native-born workers; they bring different skills and take different jobs. And the past few years, with elevated immigration, have also been an era of exceptional growth in wages for the worst paid."


Green economy

Krugman has called for a transition to a
green economy A green economy is an economy that aims at reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities, and that aims for sustainable development without environmental degradation, degrading the environment. It is closely related with ecological econ ...
. He supported the Green New Deal, asserting "I believe progressives should enthusiastically embrace the G.N.D.". He said that a "Green New Deal stuff is investment. On that stuff, don't worry about paying for it. Debt as an issue is vastly overstated, and a lot of these things pay for themselves. Go ahead and just deficit finance it." In 2021, he wrote that "we will almost surely have to put a price" on
greenhouse gas emissions Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect. This contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide (), from burning fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, oil, and natural gas, is the main cause of climate chan ...
. He criticized Democratic "moderates" and corporations "torpedoing efforts to avoid a civilization-threatening crisis because you want to hold down your tax bill".


Political views

Krugman describes himself as liberal and has explained that he views the term "liberal" in the American context to mean "more or less what
social democratic Social democracy is a Social philosophy, social, Economic ideology, economic, and political philosophy within socialism that supports Democracy, political and economic democracy and a gradualist, reformist, and democratic approach toward achi ...
means in Europe". In a 2009 ''
Newsweek ''Newsweek'' is an American weekly news magazine based in New York City. Founded as a weekly print magazine in 1933, it was widely distributed during the 20th century and has had many notable editors-in-chief. It is currently co-owned by Dev P ...
'' article, Evan Thomas described Krugman as having "all the credentials of a ranking member of the East coast liberal establishment" but also as someone who is anti-establishment, a "scourge of the Bush administration", and a critic of the Obama administration. In 1996, ''Newsweek'' Michael Hirsh remarked, "Say this for Krugman: though an unabashed liberal ... he's ideologically colorblind. He savages the supply-siders of the Reagan–Bush era with the same glee as he does the 'strategic traders' of the Clinton administration." Krugman has at times advocated free markets in contexts where they are often viewed as controversial. He has written against
rent control Rent regulation is a system of laws for the rental market of dwellings, with controversial effects on affordability of housing and tenancies. Generally, a system of rent regulation involves: *Price controls, limits on the rent that a landlord ...
and land-use restrictions in favor of market supply and demand, likened the opposition against free trade and globalization to the opposition against evolution via
natural selection Natural selection is the differential survival and reproduction of individuals due to differences in phenotype. It is a key mechanism of evolution, the change in the Heredity, heritable traits characteristic of a population over generation ...
(1996), opposed farm subsidies, argued that
sweatshop A sweatshop or sweat factory is a cramped workplace with very poor and/or illegal working conditions, including little to no breaks, inadequate work space, insufficient lighting and ventilation, or uncomfortably or dangerously high or low temperat ...
s are preferable to unemployment,In Praise of Cheap Labor
by Paul Krugman, Slate, March 21, 1997
dismissed the case for living wages (1998),Book review of ''Living Wage: What It Is and Why We Need It''
Paul Krugman, ''Washington Monthly'', September 1, 1998
and argued against mandates, subsidies, and tax breaks for
ethanol Ethanol (also called ethyl alcohol, grain alcohol, drinking alcohol, or simply alcohol) is an organic compound with the chemical formula . It is an Alcohol (chemistry), alcohol, with its formula also written as , or EtOH, where Et is the ps ...
(2000). In 2003, he questioned the usefulness of
NASA The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA ) is an independent agencies of the United States government, independent agency of the federal government of the United States, US federal government responsible for the United States ...
's crewed space flights given the available technology and their high financial cost compared to their general benefits. Krugman has also criticized U.S. zoning laws and European labor market regulation. Krugman endorsed Democratic candidate
Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...
in the run-up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election.


U.S. race relations

Krugman has criticized the Republican Party leadership for what he sees as a strategic (but largely tacit) reliance on racial divisions. In his ''Conscience of a Liberal'', he wrote:


On working in the Reagan administration

Krugman worked for Martin Feldstein when the latter was appointed chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisers The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is a United States agency within the Executive Office of the President established in 1946, which advises the president of the United States on economic policy. The CEA provides much of the empirical resea ...
and chief economic advisor to President
Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan (February 6, 1911 – June 5, 2004) was an American politician and actor who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He was a member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party a ...
. He later wrote in an autobiographical essay, "It was, in a way, strange for me to be part of the Reagan Administration. I was then and still am an unabashed defender of the
welfare state A welfare state is a form of government in which the State (polity), state (or a well-established network of social institutions) protects and promotes the economic and social well-being of its citizens, based upon the principles of equal oppor ...
, which I regard as the most decent social arrangement yet devised."Incidents From My Career
, by Paul Krugman, Princeton University Press, Retrieved December 10, 2008
Krugman found the time "thrilling, then disillusioning". He did not fit into the Washington political environment and was not tempted to stay on.


On Gordon Brown vs. David Cameron

According to Krugman,
Gordon Brown James Gordon Brown (born 20 February 1951) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party (UK), Leader of the Labour Party from 2007 to 2010. Previously, he was Chancellor of the Ex ...
and his party were unfairly blamed for the
2008 financial crisis The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a major worldwide financial crisis centered in the United States. The causes of the 2008 crisis included excessive speculation on housing values by both homeowners ...
. He has also praised the former British prime minister, whom he described as "more impressive than any US politician" after a three-hour conversation with him. Krugman asserted that Brown "defined the character of the worldwide financial rescue effort" and urged British voters not to support the opposition Conservative Party in the 2010 general election, arguing their Party Leader
David Cameron David William Donald Cameron, Baron Cameron of Chipping Norton (born 9 October 1966) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016. Until 2015, he led the first coalition government in the UK s ...
"has had little to offer other than to raise the red flag of fiscal panic".


On Donald Trump

Krugman has been a vocal critic of
Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...
, and both his presidential administrations. His criticisms have included the president's climate change proposals, economic policy, the Republican tax plan and Trump's foreign policy initiatives. Krugman often used his op-ed column in ''The New York Times'' to set out arguments against the president's policies. On election night in 2016, Krugman wrongly predicted in a ''New York Times''
op-ed An op-ed, short for "opposite the editorial page," is a type of written prose commonly found in newspapers, magazines, and online publications. They usually represent a writer's strong and focused opinion on an issue of relevance to a targeted a ...
that the markets would never recover under Trump and stated "first-pass answer is never" but retracted the call in the same publication three days later. Trump gave him a ' Fake News Award'. Krugman stated "I get a 'fake news award' for a bad market call, retracted 3 days later, from 2000-lie man, who still won't admit he lost the popular vote. Sad!"


Foreign policy

In his ''
New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
'' column, Krugman described Russia as a "
Potemkin Prince Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin-Tauricheski (A number of dates as late as 1742 have been found on record; the veracity of any one is unlikely to be proved. This is his "official" birth-date as given on his tombstone.) was a Russian mi ...
superpower" in reaction to the
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
. He stated that "Russia is even weaker than most people, myself included, seem to have realized", that the military performance of Russia "has been less effective than advertised" in a stalemate at the beginning of the invasion, and that Russia encountered serious logistical problems. Krugman observed that the country's total
gross domestic product Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the total market value of all the final goods and services produced and rendered in a specific time period by a country or countries. GDP is often used to measure the economic performanc ...
is only a bit more than half as large as those of countries such as Britain and France, despite Russia's greater landmass, total population and natural resource endowment. He also noted that Russia's economy was further weakened by international sanctions as a result of the war. He concluded that Russia had "far less real strength than meets the eye." Krugman opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He wrote in his ''New York Times'' column: "What we should have learned from the Iraq debacle was that you should always be skeptical and that you should never rely on supposed authority. If you hear that 'everyone' supports a policy, whether it's a war of choice or fiscal austerity, you should ask whether 'everyone' has been defined to exclude anyone expressing a different opinion." In 2012, Krugman praised Peter Beinart’s '' The Crisis of Zionism'' as a "brave book," criticizing the policies of
Benjamin Netanyahu Benjamin Netanyahu (born 21 October 1949) is an Israeli politician who has served as the prime minister of Israel since 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-serving prime min ...
’s government. In 2024, amidst the
Gaza war The Gaza war is an armed conflict in the Gaza Strip and southern Israel fought since 7 October 2023. A part of the unresolved Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Israeli–Palestinian and Gaza–Israel conflict, Gaza–Israel conflicts dating ...
, Krugman wrote that Netanyahu’s government was "killing huge numbers of civilians" but expressed skepticism at President
Joe Biden Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who was the 46th president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he served as the 47th vice p ...
’s ability to stop the body count, but did not elaborate, having said in 2012 that "like many liberal American Jews — and most American Jews are still liberal — I basically avoid thinking about where Israel is going."


Views on technology

In 1998 during the
dot-com bubble The dot-com bubble (or dot-com boom) was a stock market bubble that ballooned during the late-1990s and peaked on Friday, March 10, 2000. This period of market growth coincided with the widespread adoption of the World Wide Web and the Interne ...
, Krugman wrote a commentary for '' Red Herring'' that urged skepticism of optimistic predictions for technology-driven progress. He followed it with several pessimistic predictions of his own, including that " 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the
fax machine Fax (short for facsimile), sometimes called telecopying or telefax (short for telefacsimile), is the telephonic transmission of scanned printed material (both text and images), normally to a telephone number connected to a printer or other out ...
's" and that the number of jobs for IT specialists would decelerate and turn down. In a 2013 interview, Krugman stated that the predictions were meant to be "fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting". Krugman is a vocal critic of Bitcoin, arguing against its economic soundness since 2011. In 2017, he predicted that Bitcoin is a more obvious bubble than housing and stated that " ere's been no demonstration yet that it actually is helpful in conducting economic transactions". In December 2022 Krugman predicted that, because of generative AI such as
ChatGPT ChatGPT is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by OpenAI and released on November 30, 2022. It uses large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4o as well as other Multimodal learning, multimodal models to create human-like re ...
, "quite a few knowledge jobs may be eminently replaceable". He suggested that such technology would likely prove beneficial "in the long run", but that " in the long run, we are all dead, and even before that, some of us may find ourselves either unemployed or earning far less than we expected".


Personal life

Krugman has been married twice. His first wife, Robin L. Bergman, is a designer. He is currently married to Robin Wells, an academic economist who received her BA from the
University of Chicago The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, or UChi) is a Private university, private research university in Chicago, Illinois, United States. Its main campus is in the Hyde Park, Chicago, Hyde Park neighborhood on Chicago's South Side, Chic ...
and her PhD from the
University of California, Berkeley The University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley, Berkeley, Cal, or California), is a Public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university in Berkeley, California, United States. Founded in 1868 and named after t ...
. She, like Krugman, taught at
MIT The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a private research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Established in 1861, MIT has played a significant role in the development of many areas of modern technology and sc ...
. Together, Krugman and his wife have co-authored several economics textbooks. In early 2007, rumors began circulating that Krugman's "son" was working for Hillary Clinton's campaign. However, Krugman clarified in his op-ed column for the ''New York Times'' that he and his wife do not have any children. Krugman currently lives in New York City. Upon retiring from Princeton after fifteen years of teaching in June 2015, he addressed the issue in his column, stating that while he retains the utmost praise and respect for Princeton, he wishes to reside in New York City and hopes to focus more on public policy issues. He subsequently became a professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and a distinguished scholar at the Graduate Center's Luxembourg Income Study Center. Krugman reports that he is a distant relative of conservative journalist
David Frum David Jeffrey Frum (; born 30 June 1960) is a Canadian-American political commentator and a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. He is a senior editor at ''The Atlantic'' as well as an MSNBC contributor. In 2003, Frum authored the ...
. He has described himself as a "Loner. Ordinarily shy. Shy with individuals."


Published works


Academic books (authored or coauthored)

* ''The Spatial Economy – Cities, Regions and International Trade'' (July 1999), with Masahisa Fujita and Anthony Venables. MIT Press, * ''The Self Organizing Economy'' (February 1996), * ''EMU and the Regions'' (December 1995), with Guillermo de la Dehesa. * ''Development, Geography, and Economic Theory (Ohlin Lectures)'' (September 1995), * ''Foreign Direct Investment in the United States (3rd Edition)'' (February 1995), with Edward M. Graham. * ''World Savings Shortage'' (September 1994), * ''What Do We Need to Know About the International Monetary System? (Essays in International Finance, No 190 July 1993)'' * ''Currencies and Crises'' (June 1992), * ''Geography and Trade (Gaston Eyskens Lecture Series)'' (August 1991), * ''The Risks Facing the World Economy'' (July 1991), with Guillermo de la Dehesa and Charles Taylor. * ''Has the Adjustment Process Worked? (Policy Analyses in International Economics, 34)'' (June 1991), * ''Rethinking International Trade'' (April 1990), * ''Trade Policy and Market Structure'' (March 1989), with Elhanan Helpman. * ''Exchange-Rate Instability (Lionel Robbins Lectures)'' (November 1988), * ''Adjustment in the World Economy'' (August 1987) * ''Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy'' (May 1985), with Elhanan Helpman.


Academic books (edited or coedited)

* ''Currency Crises (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)'' (September 2000), * ''Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider? (National Bureau of Economic Research Project Report)'' (March 1995), * ''Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy (National Bureau of Economic Research Project Report)'' (April 1994), co-edited with Alasdair Smith. * ''Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands'' (October 1991), co-edited with Marcus Miller. * ''Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economics'' (January 1986),


Economics textbooks

* ''Economics: European Edition'' (Spring 2007), with Robin Wells and Kathryn Graddy. * ''Macroeconomics'' (February 2006), with Robin Wells. * ''Economics'', first edition (December 2005), with Robin Wells. * ''Economics'', second edition (2009), with Robin Wells. * ''Economics'', third edition (2013), with Robin Wells. * ''Economics'', fourth edition (2017), with Robin Wells. * ''Economics'', fifth edition (2018), with Robin Wells. * ''Economics'', sixth edition (2021), with Robin Wells. * ''Microeconomics'' (March 2004), with Robin Wells. * ''International Economics: Theory and Policy'', with Maurice Obstfeld. 7th Edition (2006), ; 1st Edition (1998),


Books for a general audience

* ''Arguing with Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future'' (January 2020) * '' End This Depression Now!'' (April 2012) ** A call for stimulative expansionary policy and an end to austerity * '' The Conscience of a Liberal'' (October 2007) * '' The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century'' (September 2003) ** A book of his ''The New York Times'' columns, many deal with the economic policies of the Bush administration or the economy in general. * ''Fuzzy Math: The Essential Guide to the Bush Tax Plan'' (May 4, 2001) * '' The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008'' (December 2008) ** An updated version of his previous work. * ''The Return of Depression Economics'' (May 1999) ** Considers the long economic stagnation of Japan through the 1990s, the
Asian financial crisis The 1997 Asian financial crisis gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide economic meltd ...
, and problems in Latin America. ** ''The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008'' (December 2008) * ''The Accidental Theorist and Other Dispatches from the Dismal Science'' (May 1998) ** Essay collection, primarily from Krugman's writing for ''Slate''. * ''Pop Internationalism'' (March 1996) ** Essay collection, covering largely the same ground as ''Peddling Prosperity''. * '' Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in an Age of Diminished Expectations'' (April 1995) ** History of economic thought from the first rumblings of revolt against
Keynesian economics Keynesian economics ( ; sometimes Keynesianism, named after British economist John Maynard Keynes) are the various macroeconomics, macroeconomic theories and Economic model, models of how aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) strongl ...
to the present, for the layman. * ''The Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s'' (1990) ** A "briefing book" on the major policy issues around the economy. ** Revised and Updated, January 1994, ** Third Edition, August 1997,


Selected academic articles

* (2012)
Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach
. ''The Quarterly Journal of Economics'' 127 (3), pp. 1469–513. * (2009)
The Increasing Returns Revolution in Trade and Geography
. ''The American Economic Review'' 99(3), pp. 561–71. * (1998)
It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap
. ''Brookings Papers on Economic Activity'' 1998, pp. 137–205. * (1996)
Are currency crises self-fulfilling?
. ''NBER Macroeconomics Annual'' 11, pp. 345–78. * (1995) * (1991)
Increasing returns and economic geography
. ''Journal of Political Economy'' 99, pp. 483–99. * (1991) * (1991)
History versus expectations
. ''Quarterly Journal of Economics'' 106 (2), pp. 651–67. * (1981)
Intra-industry specialization and the gains from trade
. ''Journal of Political Economy'' 89, pp. 959–73. * (1980)
Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade
. ''American Economic Review'' 70, pp. 950–59. * (1979)
A model of balance-of-payments crises
. '' Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking'' 11, pp. 311–25. * (1979)
Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade
. ''Journal of International Economics'' 9, pp. 469–79.


See also

* Capitol Hill Baby-Sitting Co-op, popularized in Krugman's book, ''Peddling Prosperity'' * List of economists * List of Jewish Nobel laureates * List of newspaper columnists * New Yorkers in journalism


Notes


References


External links

* *
Profile and column archive
at ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
''
KrugmanOnline.com
features books by Krugman, a custom search engine, and aggregated content from the web.
The Unofficial Krugman Archive
contains nearly all his pre-''TimesSelect'' articles
Paul Krugman (MIT)
archives of his ''Slate'' and ''Fortune'' columns plus other writings 1996–2000
Krugman Publications
at the
National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic co ...
*
Paul Krugman
at nobelprize.org * {{DEFAULTSORT:Krugman, Paul 20th-century American male writers 20th-century American essayists 21st-century American essayists Nobel laureates in Economics American Nobel laureates 20th-century American economists 21st-century American economists 1953 births Academics of the London School of Economics American male bloggers American bloggers American columnists Economists from New York (state) American foreign policy writers American male non-fiction writers Jewish American journalists American people of Ukrainian-Jewish descent American people of Belarusian-Jewish descent Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences Fellows of the Econometric Society Group of Thirty Jewish American economists Keynesians Living people American male essayists MIT School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences alumni New Keynesian economists Writers from Albany, New York People from Bellmore, New York Princeton University faculty CUNY Graduate Center faculty Regional economists The New York Times columnists Trade economists United States Council of Economic Advisers Writers about globalization Yale University alumni National Bureau of Economic Research Gerald Loeb Award winners for Columns, Commentary, and Editorials John F. Kennedy High School (Bellmore, New York) alumni Fellows of the American Academy of Political and Social Science Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs MIT School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences faculty Articles containing video clips People from Merrick, New York Members of the American Philosophical Society