''Our Final Hour'' is a 2003

book A book is a structured presentation of recorded information, primarily verbal and graphical, through a medium. Originally physical, electronic books and audiobooks are now existent. Physical books are objects that contain printed material, ...

by the British

Astronomer Royal Astronomer Royal is a senior post in the Royal Households of the United Kingdom. There are two officers, the senior being the astronomer royal dating from 22 June 1675; the junior is the astronomer royal for Scotland dating from 1834. The Astro ...

Sir Martin Rees. The full title of the book is ''Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century—On Earth and Beyond''. It was published in the United Kingdom under the title ''Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century?''. The premise of the book is that the

Earth Earth is the third planet from the Sun and the only astronomical object known to Planetary habitability, harbor life. This is enabled by Earth being an ocean world, the only one in the Solar System sustaining liquid surface water. Almost all ...

and

human Humans (''Homo sapiens'') or modern humans are the most common and widespread species of primate, and the last surviving species of the genus ''Homo''. They are Hominidae, great apes characterized by their Prehistory of nakedness and clothing ...

survival are in far greater danger from the potential effects of modern

technology Technology is the application of Conceptual model, conceptual knowledge to achieve practical goals, especially in a reproducible way. The word ''technology'' can also mean the products resulting from such efforts, including both tangible too ...

than is commonly realised, and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided. Rees discusses a range of

existential risk A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, endangering or even destroying Modernity, modern civilization. Existential risk is a related term limited to even ...

s confronting humanity, and estimates that the

probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...

extinction Extinction is the termination of an organism by the death of its Endling, last member. A taxon may become Functional extinction, functionally extinct before the death of its last member if it loses the capacity to Reproduction, reproduce and ...

before 2100 CE is around 50 percent, based on the possibility of malign or accidental release of destructive technology.

Humanity's fate and recommendations for survival

In ''Our Final Hour'', Rees explores various risks of human extinction and their likelihood, notably those caused by the unchecked consequences of new technologies (such as

nanotechnology Nanotechnology is the manipulation of matter with at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometers (nm). At this scale, commonly known as the nanoscale, surface area and quantum mechanical effects become important in describing propertie ...

or machine

superintelligence A superintelligence is a hypothetical intelligent agent, agent that possesses intelligence surpassing that of the brightest and most intellectual giftedness, gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of advanced problem- ...

), uncontrolled scientific experimentation,

terrorist Terrorism, in its broadest sense, is the use of violence against non-combatants to achieve political or ideological aims. The term is used in this regard primarily to refer to intentional violence during peacetime or in the context of war aga ...

or fundamentalist violence, or destruction of the

biosphere The biosphere (), also called the ecosphere (), is the worldwide sum of all ecosystems. It can also be termed the zone of life on the Earth. The biosphere (which is technically a spherical shell) is virtually a closed system with regard to mat ...

. He suggests that humanity's chances of survival could be improved by expanding into space. In order to avoid human extinction, Rees advocates for worldwide regulation of some types of scientific research, and control of open access to such research. Rees has long been active in

disarmament Disarmament is the act of reducing, limiting, or abolishing Weapon, weapons. Disarmament generally refers to a country's military or specific type of weaponry. Disarmament is often taken to mean total elimination of weapons of mass destruction, ...

campaigns, and although he now sees

nuclear warfare Nuclear warfare, also known as atomic warfare, is a War, military conflict or prepared Policy, political strategy that deploys nuclear weaponry. Nuclear weapons are Weapon of mass destruction, weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conven ...

as a less probable cause of extinction, he advocates

arms control Arms control is a term for international restrictions upon the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation and usage of small arms, conventional weapons, and weapons of mass destruction. Historically, arms control may apply to melee wea ...

as much as control of science and technology (see also

World government World government is the concept of a single political authority governing all of Earth and humanity. It is conceived in a variety of forms, from tyrannical to democratic, which reflects its wide array of proponents and detractors. There has ...

). More concerning to him now is the possibility of major bioterrorist attacks, as evidenced by his outstanding bet (registered with the Long Bet Project) that such events will occur within the next twenty years. He states that, in the 1990s,

Aum Shinrikyo , better known by their former name , is a Japanese new religions, Japanese new religious movement and doomsday cult founded by Shoko Asahara in 1987. It carried out the deadly Tokyo subway sarin attack in 1995 and was found to have been respo ...

tried unsuccessfully to obtain an

Ebola Ebola, also known as Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF), is a viral hemorrhagic fever in humans and other primates, caused by ebolaviruses. Symptoms typically start anywhere between two days and three weeks after in ...

virus sample, which they could now create in their

Mount Fuji is an active stratovolcano located on the Japanese island of Honshu, with a summit elevation of . It is the highest mountain in Japan, the second-highest volcano on any Asian island (after Mount Kerinci on the Indonesian island of Sumatra), a ...

lab, using ingredients and instructions from the

Internet The Internet (or internet) is the Global network, global system of interconnected computer networks that uses the Internet protocol suite (TCP/IP) to communicate between networks and devices. It is a internetworking, network of networks ...

. Rees advocates

free market In economics, a free market is an economic market (economics), system in which the prices of goods and services are determined by supply and demand expressed by sellers and buyers. Such markets, as modeled, operate without the intervention of ...

-based options for space exploration and survival through

colonization 475px, Map of the year each country achieved List of sovereign states by date of formation, independence. Colonization (British English: colonisation) is a process of establishing occupation of or control over foreign territories or peoples f ...

, and believes that the wealthy will push back the frontiers of space.

Publication data

*Sir Martin Rees, ''Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century—On Earth and Beyond'' (2003), Basic Books, hardcover: , 2004 paperback: *Sir Martin Rees, ''Our Final Century?: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century?'' (2003) (UK) William Heinemann, hardcover: , 2004 Arrow paperback: {{ISBN, 0-09-943686-8

References

External links

Rees's bet on a major bioterrorist attack at ''longbet.com''

"Martin Rees asks: Is this our final century?" (Video of talk from 2005)
* Futurology books 2003 non-fiction books Books about existential risk Basic Books books Books by Martin Rees