Number Cruncher Politics
   HOME

TheInfoList



OR:

Number Cruncher Politics is a political analysis and polling consultancy and website launched in 2014. The site is non-partisan and focused on UK
opinion polling An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of que ...
,
psephology Psephology (; from Greek ) is the study of elections and voting. Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results. The term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British st ...
, and
statistical Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
analysis. It became known for correctly predicting the polling failure at the 2015 general election.


History

On the eve the 2015 UK election, the site published a lengthy analysis of opinion polling accuracy by its founder Matt Singh, based on decades of polling and election data. The report suggested that, contrary to the close race suggested by opinion polls and forecasts, the Conservative Party would win by more than six percentage points and could win an overall majority. In the event, the Conservative lead in the popular vote was 6.6 points, giving the party an overall majority of 12 seats. After the publication of the broadcasters' exit poll, the post containing the analysis attracted sufficient traffic to crash the website. At the Scottish independence referendum, the site was credited by
FiveThirtyEight ''FiveThirtyEight'', also rendered as ''538'', was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the U ...
with the most accurate regional prediction. Prior to the United Kingdom general election, 2017, Number Cruncher Politics published an analysis by Singh suggesting that "based on historical accuracy, leader ratings and local election results, the likeliest outcome as of now is a Conservative popular vote margin in the mid-teens". Singh later acknowledged this "proved some way off the mark","Why almost all the UK election predictions were wrong"
''Financial Times'', 14 June 2017 as the Conservatives' lead was ultimately just 2.3% and the election resulted in a
hung Parliament A hung parliament is a term used in legislatures primarily under the Westminster system (typically employing Majoritarian representation, majoritarian electoral systems) to describe a situation in which no single political party or pre-existing ...
.


References


External links


Number Cruncher Politics
Psephology Polling British political websites {{website-stub