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epidemiology Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evi ...
, mortality displacement is the occurrence of deaths at an earlier time than they would have otherwise occurred, meaning the deaths are ''displaced'' from the future into the present. The displacement may be described as the result of events such as
heat wave A heat wave, or heatwave, is a period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity, especially in oceanic climate countries. While definitions vary, a heat wave is usually measured relative to the usual climate in the ...
s, cold spells,
epidemic An epidemic (from Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of patients among a given population within an area in a short period of time. Epidemics of infectious ...
s and
pandemic A pandemic () is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of in ...
s (especially influenza pandemics),
famine A famine is a widespread scarcity of food, caused by several factors including war, natural disasters, crop failure, population imbalance, widespread poverty, an economic catastrophe or government policies. This phenomenon is usually accompan ...
or
war War is an intense armed conflict between states, governments, societies, or paramilitary groups such as mercenaries, insurgents, and militias. It is generally characterized by extreme violence, destruction, and mortality, using regular o ...
, and allows for estimates of the mortality caused by those events. The earlier deaths are called excess deaths (i.e., more deaths than expected), and this time period is followed by a period of mortality deficit (i.e., fewer deaths than expected, because those people have died at a younger age). It is also known as "harvesting". Mortality deficit in a particular time period can be caused by deaths displaced to an earlier time (due to harvesting by an event in the past) or deaths displaced to a future time (due to lives being saved, also called "avoided mortality").


Heat waves

During heat waves, for instance, there are often additional deaths observed in the population, affecting especially older adults and those who are sick. After some periods with excess mortality, however, there has also been observed a decrease in overall mortality during the subsequent weeks. Such short-term forward shift in mortality rate is also referred to as harvesting effect. The subsequent, compensatory reduction in mortality suggests that the heat wave especially affected those whose health was already so compromised that they "would have died in the short-term anyway" due to other causes, meaning that not all the deaths caused by the heat wave could have been avoided by addressing the effects of heat waves.


Measurement

Different institutions and initiatives offer weekly data to monitor excess mortality. Significant efforts to capture short term mortality data have been made along 2020 due to the pandemic of the
Coronavirus disease 2019 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by a virus, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first known case was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease quickl ...
(COVID-19) and its worldwide effects.
Eurostat Eurostat ('European Statistical Office'; DG ESTAT) is a Directorate-General of the European Commission located in the Kirchberg, Luxembourg, Kirchberg quarter of Luxembourg City, Luxembourg. Eurostat's main responsibilities are to provide stati ...
launched in April 2020 a collection of weekly death data that provide for most of the EU countries weekly death data series by 5-year age groups and sex in NUTS3 regions within the countries starting from the year 2000. This temporary data collection was established in order to support the policy and research efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data are transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes on voluntary basis and it is being updated, depending on the country, weekly. In May 2020, the Human Mortality Database project launched a new data series, the Short-term Mortality Fluctuation series (STMF), offering freely available weekly death counts by age and sex for a growing number of countries (34 in October 2020), as well as a visualization tool that captures the excess mortality on a weekly basis. The STMF was established to provide data for scientific analysis of all-cause mortality fluctuations by week within each calendar year in standard formats. Part of the Human Mortality Database use a joint project of two teams based in th
Laboratory of Demographic Data
at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) and at th
Department of Demography
of the
University of California, Berkeley The University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley, Berkeley, Cal, or California) is a public land-grant research university in Berkeley, California. Established in 1868 as the University of California, it is the state's first land-grant un ...
(UCB). The collaborative network EuroMOMO (European mortality monitoring activity), monitors mortality across 24 European countries in order to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics, and other public health threats. EuroMOMO is hosted and maintained by the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention of
Copenhagen Copenhagen ( or .; da, København ) is the capital and most populous city of Denmark, with a proper population of around 815.000 in the last quarter of 2022; and some 1.370,000 in the urban area; and the wider Copenhagen metropolitan a ...
, Denmark. They offer regular reports (weekly bulletins), graphs and maps showing the present levels of mortality but the network does not publish openly data. Individual partners may decide to share openly some selected national data, like for instance
MoMo-Spain
The study centre at the Statens Serum Institut in Copenhagen publishes a weekly situation report and regular scientific articles. Periods of high excess mortality have also been described for the United States.


References


External links


Human Mortality Database
Short-term Mortality Fluctuation data series
EuroMOMO Homepage



Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)
Our World in Data Our World in Data (OWID) is a scientific online publication that focuses on large global problems such as poverty, disease, hunger, climate change, war, existential risks, and inequality. It is a project of the Global Change Data Lab, a re ...
{{death Epidemiology Death Gerontology