A Minsky moment is a sudden, major collapse of asset values which marks the end of the growth phase of a cycle in

credit markets The bond market (also debt market or credit market) is a financial market in which participants can issue new debt, known as the primary market, or buy and sell debt securities, known as the secondary market. This is usually in the form of bonds, ...

or business activity.

Description

According to the hypothesis, the rapid instability occurs because long periods of steady prosperity and investment gains encourage a diminished perception of overall

market risk Market risk is the risk of losses in positions arising from movements in market variables like prices and volatility. There is no unique classification as each classification may refer to different aspects of market risk. Nevertheless, the m ...

, which promotes the

leveraged In finance, leverage, also known as gearing, is any technique involving borrowing funds to buy an investment. Financial leverage is named after a lever in physics, which amplifies a small input force into a greater output force. Financial leverag ...

risk of investing borrowed money instead of cash. The debt-leveraged financing of speculative investments exposes investors to a potential cash flow crisis, which may begin with a short period of modestly declining asset prices. In the event of a decline, the cash generated by assets is no longer sufficient to pay off the debt used to acquire the assets. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. This rapidly amplifies a small decline into a collapse of asset values, related to the degree of leverage in the market. Leveraged investors are also forced to sell less-speculative positions to cover their loans. In severe situations, no buyers bid at prices recently quoted, fearing further declines. This starts a major sell-off, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market-clearing asset prices, a sharp drop in market liquidity, and a severe demand for cash. The more general concept of a "Minsky cycle" consists of a repetitive chain of Minsky moments: a period of stability encourages risk taking, which leads to a period of instability when risks are realized as losses, which quickly exhausts participants into risk-averse trading (de-leveraging), restoring stability and setting up the next cycle. In this more general view, the Minsky cycle may apply to a wide range of human activities, beyond investment economics.

Context

The term was coined by Paul McCulley of

PIMCO Pacific Investment Management Company LLC (PIMCO) is an American investment management firm. While it has a specific focus on active fixed income management worldwide, it manages investments in many asset classes, including fixed income, share ca ...

in 1998, to describe the

1998 Russian financial crisis The Russian financial crisis (also called the ruble crisis or the Russian flu) began in Russia on 17 August 1998. It resulted in the Russian government and the Russian Central Bank devaluing the Russian rouble, ruble and sovereign default, defau ...

, and was named after economist

Hyman Minsky Hyman Philip Minsky (September 23, 1919 – October 24, 1996) was an American economist and economy professor at Washington University in St. Louis. A distinguished scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, his research was inten ...

, who noted that bankers, traders, and other financiers periodically played the role of arsonists, setting the entire economy ablaze. Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s. Some, such as McCulley, have dated the start of the

2008 financial crisis The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a major worldwide financial crisis centered in the United States. The causes of the 2008 crisis included excessive speculation on housing values by both homeowners ...

to a Minsky moment, and called the following crisis a "reverse Minsky journey"; McCulley dates the moment to August 2007, while others date the start to some months earlier or later, such as the June 2007 failure of two

Bear Stearns The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. was an American investment bank, securities trading, and brokerage firm that failed in 2008 during the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. After its closure it was subsequently sold to JPMorgan Chas ...

funds.

Description

Context

See also

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Further reading