Marginal structural models are a class of

statistical model A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of Sample (statistics), sample data (and similar data from a larger Statistical population, population). A statistical model repre ...

s used for

causal inference Causal inference is the process of determining the independent, actual effect of a particular phenomenon that is a component of a larger system. The main difference between causal inference and inference of association is that causal inference an ...

epidemiology Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and Risk factor (epidemiology), determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population, and application of this knowledge to prevent dise ...

. Such models handle the issue of time-dependent confounding in evaluation of the efficacy of interventions by

inverse probability weighting Inverse probability weighting is a statistical technique for estimating quantities related to a population other than the one from which the data was collected. Study designs with a disparate sampling population and population of target inference ( ...

for receipt of treatment, they allow us to estimate the average causal effects. For instance, in the study of the effect of

zidovudine Zidovudine (ZDV), also known as azidothymidine (AZT), was the first antiretroviral medication used to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS. It is generally recommended for use in combination with other antiretrovirals. It may be used to prevent mothe ...

AIDS The HIV, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that attacks the immune system. Without treatment, it can lead to a spectrum of conditions including acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). It is a Preventive healthcare, pr ...

-related mortality, CD4 lymphocyte is used both for treatment indication, is influenced by treatment, and affects survival. Time-dependent confounders are typically highly prognostic of health outcomes and applied in dosing or indication for certain therapies, such as body weight or lab values such as

alanine aminotransferase Alanine aminotransferase (ALT or ALAT), formerly alanine transaminase (ALT), and even earlier referred to as serum glutamate-pyruvate transaminase (GPT) or serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (SGPT), is a transaminase enzyme () that was first ch ...

bilirubin Bilirubin (BR) (adopted from German, originally bili—bile—plus ruber—red—from Latin) is a red-orange compound that occurs in the normcomponent of the straw-yellow color in urine. Another breakdown product, stercobilin, causes the brown ...

. The first marginal structural models were introduced in 2000. The works of

James Robins James M. Robins is an epidemiologist and biostatistician best known for advancing methods for drawing causality, causal inferences from complex observational study, observational studies and randomized trials, particularly those in which the trea ...

, Babette Brumback, and Miguel Hernán provided an intuitive theory and an easy-to-implement software which made them popular for the analysis of longitudinal data.

References

{{Reflist Statistical models Epidemiology Causal inference